Quantifying the Importance of COVID-19 Vaccination to Our Future Outlook.

Predictive models have played a critical role in local, national, and international response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the United States, health care systems and governmental agencies have relied on several models, such as the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Youyang Gu (YYG), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ensemble, to predict short- and long-term trends in disease activity. The Mayo Clinic Bayesian SIR model, recently made publicly available, has informed Mayo Clinic practice leadership at all sites across the United States and has been shared with Minnesota governmental leadership to help inform critical decisions during the past year. One key to the accuracy of the Mayo Clinic model is its ability to adapt to the constantly changing dynamics of the pandemic and uncertainties of human behavior, such as changes in the rate of contact among the population over time and by geographic location and now new virus variants. The Mayo Clinic model can also be used to forecast COVID-19 trends in different hypothetical worlds in which no vaccine is available, vaccinations are no longer being accepted from this point forward, and 75% of the population is already vaccinated. Surveys indicate that half of American adults are hesitant to receive a COVID-19 vaccine, and lack of understanding of the benefits of vaccination is an important barrier to use. The focus of this paper is to illustrate the stark contrast between these 3 scenarios and to demonstrate, mathematically, the benefit of high vaccine uptake on the future course of the pandemic.

Deployment of an Interdisciplinary Predictive Analytics Task Force to Inform Hospital Operational Decision-Making During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

In March 2020, our institution developed an interdisciplinary predictive analytics task force to provide coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospital census forecasting to help clinical leaders understand the potential impacts on hospital operations. As the situation unfolded into a pandemic, our task force provided predictive insights through a structured set of visualizations and key messages that have helped the practice to anticipate and react to changing operational needs and opportunities. The framework shared here for the deployment of a COVID-19 predictive analytics task force could be adapted for effective implementation at other institutions to provide evidence-based messaging for operational decision-making. For hospitals without such a structure, immediate consideration may be warranted in light of the devastating COVID-19 third-wave which has arrived for winter 2020-2021.

Transition from room temperature to cold-stored platelets for the preservation of blood inventories during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has placed great strain on blood resources. In an effort to extend platelet (PLT) shelf life and minimize waste, our institution transitioned room temperature to cold-stored PLTs for administration to bleeding patients. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We describe the administrative and technical processes involved in transitioning room temperature PLTs to cold storage in April 2020. Additionally, we describe the clinical utilization of cold-stored PLTs in the first month of this practice change, with a focus on changes in PLT counts after transfusion, hemostasis, and safety outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 61 cold-stored PLT units were transfused to 40 bleeding patients, with a median (interquartile range [IQR]) of 1 (1-2) units per patient. The median age was 68 (59-73) years; 58% male. Median pretransfusion and posttransfusion PLTs counts were 88 (67-109) and 115 (93-145). A total of 95% of transfusions were administered in the operating room: 57% cardiac surgery, 20% vascular surgery, 8% general surgery, and 5% solid organ transplantation. Hemostasis was deemed to be adequate in all cases after transfusion. There were no transfusion reactions. One patient (3%) experienced a fever and infection within 5 days of transfusion, which was unrelated to transfusion. Median (IQR) hospital length of stay was 8.5 (6-17) days. Two patients (5%) died in the hospital of complications not related to transfusion. CONCLUSION: Cold-stored PLT utilization was associated with adequate hemostasis and no overt signal for patient harm. Conversion from room temperature to cold-stored PLTs may be one method of reducing waste in times of scarce blood inventories.

Essential Role of Patient Blood Management in a Pandemic: A Call for Action.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a pandemic. Global health care now faces unprecedented challenges with widespread and rapid human-to-human transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and high morbidity and mortality with COVID-19 worldwide. Across the world, medical care is hampered by a critical shortage of not only hand sanitizers, personal protective equipment, ventilators, and hospital beds, but also impediments to the blood supply. Blood donation centers in many areas around the globe have mostly closed. Donors, practicing social distancing, some either with illness or undergoing self-quarantine, are quickly diminishing. Drastic public health initiatives have focused on containment and "flattening the curve" while invaluable resources are being depleted. In some countries, the point has been reached at which the demand for such resources, including donor blood, outstrips the supply. Questions as to the safety of blood persist. Although it does not appear very likely that the virus can be transmitted through allogeneic blood transfusion, this still remains to be fully determined. As options dwindle, we must enact regional and national shortage plans worldwide and more vitally disseminate the knowledge of and immediately implement patient blood management (PBM). PBM is an evidence-based bundle of care to optimize medical and surgical patient outcomes by clinically managing and preserving a patient's own blood. This multinational and diverse group of authors issue this "Call to Action" underscoring "The Essential Role of Patient Blood Management in the Management of Pandemics" and urging all stakeholders and providers to implement the practical and commonsense principles of PBM and its multiprofessional and multimodality approaches.