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1.
Results Phys ; 35: 105392, 2022 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1712961

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 is an infectious disease that kills millions of people each year and it is a major public health problem around the globe. The current COVID-19 situation is still now concerning, though the vaccination program is running. In this study, we considered a COVID-19 model with a double-dose vaccination strategy to control the current outbreak situation in Bangladesh. The fundamental qualitative analysis of this mathematical model has been performed. The conditions of positive invariance, boundedness with suitable initial conditions were analyzed. We have estimated the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) for disease transmission and determined that our model contains two equilibrium points: the disease-free equilibrium and a disease-endemic equilibrium. We used the Routh-Hurwitz criteria to determine the stability of the equilibria. The disease will be eradicated from the community if R 0  < 1, otherwise the disease persists in the population. To support the qualitative analysis of our model, we performed numerical simulations using MATLAB routine and estimated model parameters. Sensitivity analysis is used to explore the association for Mild and Critical cases concerning the corresponding model parameters. We observed that the most significant parameter to spread the virus is the transmission rate. The numerical simulations showed that a full dose vaccination program significantly reduces the mild and critical cases and has potential impact to eradicate the virus from the community. The information that we generated from our analysis may help the public health professionals to impose the best strategy effectively to control the outbreak situation of the virus in Bangladesh.

2.
Viruses ; 13(11)2021 10 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1488762

ABSTRACT

At the end of December 2019, an outbreak of COVID-19 occurred in Wuhan city, China. Modelling plays a crucial role in developing a strategy to prevent a disease outbreak from spreading around the globe. Models have contributed to the perspicacity of epidemiological variations between and within nations and the planning of desired control strategies. In this paper, a literature review was conducted to summarise knowledge about COVID-19 disease modelling in three countries-China, the UK and Australia-to develop a robust research framework for the regional areas that are urban and rural health districts of New South Wales, Australia. In different aspects of modelling, summarising disease and intervention strategies can help policymakers control the outbreak of COVID-19 and may motivate modelling disease-related research at a finer level of regional geospatial scales in the future.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19 Vaccines , China/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control , Disease Outbreaks , Humans , New South Wales/epidemiology , Quarantine , Travel , United Kingdom/epidemiology , Vaccination
3.
Med J Aust ; 215(9): 427-432, 2021 11 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1389702

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To analyse the outcomes of COVID-19 vaccination by vaccine type, age group eligibility, vaccination strategy, and population coverage. DESIGN: Epidemiologic modelling to assess the final size of a COVID-19 epidemic in Australia, with vaccination program (Pfizer, AstraZeneca, mixed), vaccination strategy (vulnerable first, transmitters first, untargeted), age group eligibility threshold (5 or 15 years), population coverage, and pre-vaccination effective reproduction number ( R eff v ¯ ) for the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant as factors. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infections; cumulative hospitalisations, deaths, and years of life lost. RESULTS: Assuming R eff v ¯ = 5, the current mixed vaccination program (vaccinating people aged 60 or more with the AstraZeneca vaccine and people under 60 with the Pfizer vaccine) will not achieve herd protection unless population vaccination coverage reaches 85% by lowering the vaccination eligibility age to 5 years. At R eff v ¯ = 3, the mixed program could achieve herd protection at 60-70% population coverage and without vaccinating 5-15-year-old children. At R eff v ¯ = 7, herd protection is unlikely to be achieved with currently available vaccines, but they would still reduce the number of COVID-19-related deaths by 85%. CONCLUSION: Vaccinating vulnerable people first is the optimal policy when population vaccination coverage is low, but vaccinating more socially active people becomes more important as the R eff v ¯ declines and vaccination coverage increases. Assuming the most plausible R eff v ¯ of 5, vaccinating more than 85% of the population, including children, would be needed to achieve herd protection. Even without herd protection, vaccines are highly effective in reducing the number of deaths.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines/immunology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Immunity, Herd , Mass Vaccination/organization & administration , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Australia/epidemiology , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/immunology , COVID-19/virology , COVID-19 Vaccines/administration & dosage , Child , Child, Preschool , Computer Simulation , Humans , Immunogenicity, Vaccine , Mass Vaccination/statistics & numerical data , Middle Aged , Models, Immunological , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , Vaccination Coverage/organization & administration , Vaccination Coverage/statistics & numerical data , Young Adult
4.
Results Phys ; 27: 104478, 2021 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1275690

ABSTRACT

Infectious diseases kill millions of people each year, and they are the major public health problem in the world. This paper presents a modified Susceptible-Latent-Infected-Removed (SLIR) compartmental model of disease transmission with nonlinear incidence. We have obtained a threshold value of basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) and shown that only a disease-free equilibrium exists when R 0 < 1 and endemic equilibrium when R 0 > 1 . With the help of the Lyapunov-LaSalle Invariance Principle, we have shown that disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium are both globally asymptotically stable. The study has also provided the model calibration to estimate parameters with month wise coronavirus (COVID-19) data, i.e. reported cases by worldometer from March 2020 to May 2021 and provides prediction until December 2021 in China. The Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) method was used to investigate how the model parameters' variation impact the model outcomes. We observed that the most important parameter is transmission rate which had the most significant impact on COVID-19 cases. We also discuss the epidemiology of COVID-19 cases and several control policies and make recommendations for controlling this disease in China.

5.
Biomed Res Int ; 2021: 5089184, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1255644

ABSTRACT

The new Coronavirus Disease 19, officially known as COVID-19, originated in China in 2019 and has since spread worldwide. We presented an age-structured Susceptible-Latent-Mild-Critical-Removed (SLMCR) compartmental model of COVID-19 disease transmission with nonlinear incidence during the pandemic period. We provided the model calibration to estimate parameters with day-wise COVID-19 data, i.e., reported cases by worldometer from 15th February to 30th March 2020 in six high-burden countries, including Australia, Italy, Spain, the USA, the UK, and Canada. We estimate transmission rates for each country and found that the country with the highest transmission rate is Spain, which may increase the new cases and deaths than the other countries. We found that saturation infection negatively impacted the dynamics of COVID-19 cases in all the six high-burden countries. The study used a sensitivity analysis to identify the most critical parameters through the partial rank correlation coefficient method. We found that the transmission rate of COVID-19 had the most significant influence on prevalence. The prediction of new cases in COVID-19 until 30th April 2020 using the developed model was also provided with recommendations to control strategies of COVID-19. We also found that adults are more susceptible to infection than both children and older people in all six countries. However, in Italy, Spain, the UK, and Canada, older people show more susceptibility to infection than children, opposite to the case in Australia and the USA. The information generated from this study would be helpful to the decision-makers of various organisations across the world, including the Ministry of Health in Australia, Italy, Spain, the USA, the UK, and Canada, to control COVID-19.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/transmission , Models, Statistical , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Australia/epidemiology , COVID-19/mortality , Canada/epidemiology , Child , Child, Preschool , Computer Simulation , Female , Humans , Incidence , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Italy/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Prevalence , Severity of Illness Index , Spain/epidemiology , Survival Analysis , United Kingdom/epidemiology , United States/epidemiology
6.
Am J Trop Med Hyg ; 104(4): 1519-1525, 2021 Jan 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1060936

ABSTRACT

Dire COVID-19 expectations in the Lower Mekong Region (LMR) can be understood as Cambodia, the Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam have stared down a succession of emerging infectious disease (EID) threats from neighboring China. Predictions that the LMR would be overwhelmed by a coming COVID-19 tsunami were felt well before the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic had been declared. And yet, the LMR, excepting Myanmar, has proved surprisingly resilient in keeping COVID-19 contained to mostly sporadic cases. Cumulative case rates (per one million population) for the LMR, including or excluding Myanmar, from January 1 to October 31 2020, are 1,184 and 237, respectively. More telling are the cumulative rates of COVID-19-attributable deaths for the same period of time, 28 per million with and six without Myanmar. Graphics demonstrate a flattening of pandemic curves in the LMR, minus Myanmar, after managing temporally and spatially isolated spikes in case counts, with negligible follow-on community spread. The comparable success of the LMR in averting pandemic disaster can likely be attributed to years of preparedness investments, triggered by avian influenza A (H5N1). Capacity building initiatives applied to COVID-19 containment included virological (influenza-driven) surveillance, laboratory diagnostics, field epidemiology training, and vaccine preparation. The notable achievement of the LMR in averting COVID-19 disaster through to October 31, 2020 can likely be credited to these preparedness measures.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , Asia, Southeastern/epidemiology , COVID-19/mortality , COVID-19/prevention & control , Humans
7.
Front Public Health ; 8: 579190, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-955283

ABSTRACT

On March 13, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV2 a pandemic. Since then the virus has infected over 9.1 million individuals and resulted in over 470,000 deaths worldwide (as of June 24, 2020). Here, we discuss the spatial correlation between county population health rankings and the incidence of COVID-19 cases and COVID-19 related deaths in the United States. We analyzed the spread of the disease based on multiple variables at the county level, using publicly available data on the numbers of confirmed cases and deaths, intensive care unit beds and socio-demographic, and healthcare resources in the U.S. Our results indicate substantial geographical variations in the distribution of COVID-19 cases and deaths across the US counties. There was significant positive global spatial correlation between the percentage of Black Americans and cases of COVID-19 (Moran I = 0.174 and 0.264, p < 0.0001). A similar result was found for the global spatial correlation between the percentage of Black American and deaths due to COVID-19 at the county level in the U.S. (Moran I = 0.264, p < 0.0001). There was no significant spatial correlation between the Hispanic population and COVID-19 cases and deaths; however, a higher percentage of non-Hispanic white was significantly negatively spatially correlated with cases (Moran I = -0.203, p < 0.0001) and deaths (Moran I = -0.137, p < 0.0001) from the disease. This study showed significant but weak spatial autocorrelation between the number of intensive care unit beds and COVID-19 cases (Moran I = 0.08, p < 0.0001) and deaths (Moran I = 0.15, p < 0.0001), respectively. These findings provide more detail into the interplay between the infectious disease and healthcare-related characteristics of the population. Only by understanding these relationships will it be possible to mitigate the rate of spread and severity of the disease.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Health Status Disparities , Pandemics , Spatial Analysis , Databases, Factual , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology , Humans , Intensive Care Units/supply & distribution , Obesity/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , United States/epidemiology
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