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Transplant Direct ; 9(1): e1423, 2023 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2191241


Following the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United States, the number of kidney waitlist additions and living-donor and deceased-donor kidney transplants (LDKT/DDKT) decreased substantially but began recovering within a few months. Since then, there have been several additional waves of infection, most notably, the Delta and Omicron surges beginning in August and December 2021, respectively. Methods: Using SRTR data, we compared observed waitlist registrations, waitlist mortality, waitlist removal due to deteriorating condition, LDKT, and DDKT over 5 distinct pandemic periods to expected events based on calculations from preepidemic data while accounting for seasonality and secular trends. Results: Although the number of daily waitlist additions has been increasing since May 2020, the size of the active waitlist has consistently declined, reaching a minimum of 52 556 on February 27, 2022. The recent Omicron surge knocked LDKT from 25% below baseline (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.690.750.81) during the Delta wave to 38% below baseline (IRR = 0.580.620.67). DDKT, however, was less affected by the Omicron wave (IRR = 0.850.890.93 and 0.880.920.96 during the Delta and Omicron waves, respectively). Waitlist death decreased from 56% above baseline (IRR = 1.431.561.70) during Delta to 41% above baseline during Omicron, whereas waitlist removal due to deteriorating condition remained at baseline/expected levels during the Delta wave (IRR = 0.931.021.12) and the Omicron wave (IRR = 0.991.071.16). Conclusions: Despite exceptionally high COVID-19 incidence during the Omicron wave, the transplant system responded similarly to prior waves that imposed a lesser disease burden, demonstrating the transplant system's growing adaptations and resilience to this now endemic disease.

Transplantation ; 106(10): e452-e460, 2022 10 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1948635


BACKGROUND: Solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs) are less likely to mount an antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines. Understanding risk factors for impaired vaccine response can guide strategies for antibody testing and additional vaccine dose recommendations. METHODS: Using a nationwide observational cohort of 1031 SOTRs, we created a machine learning model to explore, identify, rank, and quantify the association of 19 clinical factors with antibody responses to 2 doses of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines. External validation of the model was performed using a cohort of 512 SOTRs at Houston Methodist Hospital. RESULTS: Mycophenolate mofetil use, a shorter time since transplant, and older age were the strongest predictors of a negative antibody response, collectively contributing to 76% of the model's prediction performance. Other clinical factors, including transplanted organ, vaccine type (mRNA-1273 versus BNT162b2), sex, race, and other immunosuppressants, showed comparatively weaker associations with an antibody response. This model showed moderate prediction performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.79 in our cohort and 0.67 in the external validation cohort. An online calculator based on our prediction model is available at . CONCLUSIONS: Our machine learning model helps understand which transplant patients need closer follow-up and additional doses of vaccine to achieve protective immunity. The online calculator based on this model can be incorporated into transplant providers' practice to facilitate patient-centric, precision risk stratification and inform vaccination strategies among SOTRs.

COVID-19 Vaccines , COVID-19 , Transplant Recipients , Antibodies, Viral , Antibody Formation , BNT162 Vaccine , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19 Vaccines/adverse effects , Humans , Immunosuppressive Agents/adverse effects , Machine Learning , Mycophenolic Acid , SARS-CoV-2 , Vaccines , Vaccines, Synthetic , mRNA Vaccines
Clin Transplant ; 35(9): e14394, 2021 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1338800


BACKGROUND: To gather information on long-term outcomes after living donation, the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) conducted a pilot on the feasibility of establishing a comprehensive donor candidate registry. METHODS: A convenience sample of 6 US living liver donor programs evaluated 398 consecutive donor candidates in 2018, ending with the March 12, 2020, COVID-19 emergency. RESULTS: For 333/398 (83.7%), the donor or program decided whether to donate; 166/333 (49.8%) were approved, and 167/333 (50.2%) were not or opted out. Approval rates varied by program, from 27.0% to 63.3% (median, 46%; intraquartile range, 37.3-51.1%). Of those approved, 90.4% were white, 57.2% were women, 83.1% were < 50 years, and 85.5% had more than a high school education. Of 167 candidates, 131 (78.4%) were not approved or opted out because of: medical risk (10.7%); chronic liver disease risk (11.5%); psychosocial reasons (5.3%); candidate declined (6.1%); anatomical reasons increasing recipient risk (26.0%); recipient-related reasons (33.6%); finances (1.5%); or other (5.3%). CONCLUSIONS: A comprehensive national registry is feasible and necessary to better understand candidate selection and long-term outcomes. As a result, the US Health Resources and Services Administration asked SRTR to expand the pilot to include all US living donor programs.

COVID-19 , Living Donors , Female , Humans , Liver , Registries , SARS-CoV-2