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2.
Liver Transpl ; 2021 Nov 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1568241

ABSTRACT

The BNT162b2 messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been shown to be safe and effective in immunocompetent patients. The safety and efficacy of this vaccine in liver transplantation (LT) recipients is still under evaluation. The objective of this study was to assess the safety and efficacy of the BNT162b2 vaccine among transplant recipients. The immune responses of 76 LT recipients receiving 2 doses of the vaccine were compared with those of 174 age-matched immunocompetent controls. Postvaccination immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies against the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2 and neutralizing antibodies (NA) to the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine were determined at least 14 days after the second dose of the vaccine. IgG antibody titers ≥1.1 were defined as positive antibodies. Adverse effects were monitored during the study period. Following administration of the second dose, transplant recipients showed reduced immune responses compared with controls (72% versus 94.2%; P < 0.001). At a median time of 38 days after the second vaccination, the geometric mean of RBD IgG and NA titers were 2.1 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.6-2.6) and 150 (95% CI, 96-234) among transplant recipients and 4.6 (95% CI, 4.1-5.1) and 429 (95% CI, 350-528) in the control group, respectively (P < 0.001). Antibody responses were lower in transplant recipients who were receiving combined immunosuppression therapy and in those with impaired renal function. Among the LT recipients with negative antibody responses, 1 became infected with SARS-CoV-2, but no recipients with positive antibody responses became infected. Overall, most (n = 39 [51%]) adverse effects self-reported by transplant recipients were mild and occurred more often in women than in men. Compared with patients who were immunocompetent, LT recipients had lower immune responses. The durability of immune responses to the BNT162b2 vaccine among LT recipients requires further investigation.

3.
Preprint in English | Other preprints | ID: ppcovidwho-294742

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic raises the need for diverse diagnostic approaches to rapidly detect different stages of viral infection. The flexible and quantitative nature of single-molecule imaging technology renders it optimal for development of new diagnostic tools. Here we present a proof-of-concept for a single-molecule based, enzyme-free assay for detection of SARS-CoV-2. The unified platform we developed allows direct detection of the viral genetic material from patients’ samples, as well as their immune response consisting of IgG and IgM antibodies. Thus, it establishes a platform for diagnostics of COVID-19, which could also be adjusted to diagnose additional pathogens.

4.
Transplantation ; 105(11): e234-e243, 2021 11 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1494154

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Data about SARS-CoV-2 vaccines efficacy in renal transplant recipients (RTR) are lacking. METHODS: To reveal predictors for humoral response to BNT162b2 vaccine among RTR, patients were divided into positive (N = 42) and negative (N = 78) response groups based on receptor-binding domain (RBD) immunoglobulin G (IgG) ≥1.1 and neutralizing antibodies (NA) ≥16 dilution versus RBD IgG <1.1 or NA <16, respectively. NA were detected using a SARS-CoV-2 pseudo-virus. RESULTS: NA were detected in only 42 of 120 (35%) of RTR versus 197 of 202 (97.5%) immunocompetent controls (P < 0.001). NA geometric mean titers in RTR were significantly lower versus the control group {83.7 (95% confidence interval [CI], 50.5-138.8) versus 482 (95% CI, 411-566), P < 0.001}. In a multivariable analysis, mycophenolic acid (MPA) dose and hemoglobin level were found to be independent predictors for antibody response in RTR. A positive response rate of 27% versus 63% was observed in patients on and off MPA, respectively. An increase in MPA dose by 1 mg/kg weight reduced the odds for a positive response by 17% (odds ratio = 0.83; 95% CI, 0.75-0.92; P < 0.001). Geometric mean titers for RBD IgG were significantly reduced as MPA daily dose increased. Hemoglobin blood level <13 g/dL reduced the antibody response by 63% (P = 0.04). Pain at the injection site after the second vaccine dose was significantly higher in the responders versus nonresponders (20.5% versus 5.5%, P = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Only 35% of RTR develop NA to the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine. MPA is a major suppressor of antibody response in RTR.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines/immunology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Immunity, Humoral/drug effects , Immunogenicity, Vaccine/drug effects , Kidney Transplantation/adverse effects , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Antibodies, Neutralizing/blood , Antibodies, Neutralizing/immunology , COVID-19/immunology , COVID-19/virology , COVID-19 Vaccines/administration & dosage , Cohort Studies , Dose-Response Relationship, Drug , Female , Graft Rejection/immunology , Graft Rejection/prevention & control , Humans , Immunoglobulin G/blood , Immunoglobulin G/immunology , Immunosuppressive Agents/administration & dosage , Immunosuppressive Agents/adverse effects , Male , Middle Aged , Mycophenolic Acid/administration & dosage , Mycophenolic Acid/adverse effects , SARS-CoV-2/immunology
5.
Br J Haematol ; 2021 Oct 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1488182

ABSTRACT

The immunogenicity and safety of Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine in allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) recipients are unknown. We prospectively followed 152 HSCT recipients who were at least six months following transplantation and with no active acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). Blood samples were taken 2-4 weeks after the second vaccination and analyzed for receptor-binding domain (RBD) antibodies and neutralizing antibodies (NA). 272 immunocompetent healthcare workers served as controls. At a median of 28 days after the second vaccination, 118 patients (77·6%) developed RBD immunoglobulin G (IgG) with a geometric mean titre (GMT) of 2·61 [95% CI (confidence interval), 2·16-3·16]. In the control group 269/272 (98·9%) developed RBD IgG, with a GMT of 5·98 (95% CI 5·70-6·28), P < 0·0001. The GMT of NA in HSCT recipients and controls was 116·0 (95% CI 76·5-175·9), and 427·9 (95% CI 354·3-516·7) respectively (P < 0001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that HSCT recipients with no chronic GVHD and no immunosuppressive therapy at the time of vaccination had significantly higher levels of NA following the second vaccination. Adverse events were minimal and were less common than in healthy controls. In conclusion; the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccination is safe and effective in HSCT recipients, especially those who are immunosuppression-free. A significant fraction developed protecting NA.

6.
EClinicalMedicine ; 41: 101158, 2021 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1466282

ABSTRACT

Background: Trials of the Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine showed 95% efficacy in preventing symptomatic disease; however, the trials excluded immunocompromised patients (ICPs). We aim at analyzing antibody response in ICPs. Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted at Sheba Medical Center, Israel, between January and April 2020, in 1274 participants who received the vaccine, including 1002 ICPs and 272 immunocompetent healthcare workers (HCWs). Antibodies were measured two-four weeks after vaccination by SARS-CoV-2 anti-receptor binding domain IgG antibodies (RBD IgG) and pseudo-virus neutralization assays. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with vaccine-induced antibody response. Adverse events (AEs) were monitored. Findings: RBD-IgG antibodies were detected in 154/156 (98.7%) of patients with HIV, 75/90 (83.3%) with solid malignancies, 149/187 (79.7%) with myeloma, 83/111 (74.8%) following hematopoietic stem cell transplants, 25/36 (69.4%) following liver transplantation, 26/43 (60.5%) with myelodysplastic syndrome, 96/188 (51.0%) with chronic lymphocytic leukemia/non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, 50/110 (45.5%) following kidney transplantation, 15/80 (18.8%) following heart transplantation, and 269/272 (98.9%) in controls. There was a significant correlation r = 0.74 (95%CI 0.69,0.78) between RBD-binding IgG and neutralizing antibodies in all groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age > 65 years (OR 0.41,95%CI 0.30,0.57) and underlying immunosuppression (OR 0.02,95%CI 0.01,0.07) were significantly associated with a non-reactive response of IgG antibodies. HIV patients showed a similar immunological response as healthy adults. The vaccine was safe without any episodes of rejection, graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) or allergy. Immunocompetent HCWs experienced significantly more AEs than ICPs. Interpretation: Antibody response to the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was highly variable among different ICPs; thus, individual recommendations should be provided for the different immunosuppression states.

7.
Microbiol Spectr ; 9(2): e0087021, 2021 10 31.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1455682

ABSTRACT

The first case of SARS-CoV-2 was discovered in Israel in late February 2020. Three major outbreaks followed, resulting in over 800,000 cases and over 6,000 deaths by April 2021. Our aim was characterization of a serological snapshot of Israeli patients and healthy adults in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Sera from 55 symptomatic COVID-19 patients and 146 healthy subjects (early-pandemic, reverse transcription-quantitative PCR [qRT-PCR]-negative), collected in Israel between March and April 2020, were screened for SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG, IgM, and IgA antibodies, using a 6-plex antigen microarray presenting the whole inactivated virus and five viral antigens: a stabilized version of the spike ectodomain (S2P), spike subunit 1 (S1), receptor-binding-domain (RBD), N-terminal-domain (NTD), and nucleocapsid (NC). COVID-19 patients, 4 to 40 days post symptom onset, presented specific IgG to all of the viral antigens (6/6) in 54 of the 55 samples (98% sensitivity). Specific IgM and IgA antibodies for all six antigens were detected in only 10% (5/55) and 4% (2/55) of the patients, respectively, suggesting that specific IgG is a superior serological marker for COVID-19. None of the qRT-PCR-negative sera reacted with all six viral antigens (100% specificity), and 48% (70/146) were negative throughout the panel. Our findings confirm a low seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the Israeli adult population prior to the COVID-19 outbreak. We further suggest that the presence of low-level cross-reacting antibodies in naive individuals calls for a combined, multiantigen analysis for accurate discrimination between naive and exposed individuals. IMPORTANCE A 6-plex protein array presenting the whole inactivated virus and five nucleocapsid and spike-derived SARS-CoV-2 antigens was used to generate a serological snapshot of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and seroconversion in Israel in the early months of the pandemic. Our findings confirm a very low seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the Israeli adult population. We further propose that the presence of low-level nonspecific antibodies in naive individuals calls for a combined, multiantigen analysis for accurate discrimination between naive and exposed individuals enabling accurate determination of seroconversion. The developed assay is currently applied to evaluate immune responses to the Israeli vaccine during human phase I/II trials.


Subject(s)
Antibodies, Viral/blood , COVID-19 Serological Testing/methods , COVID-19/epidemiology , Microarray Analysis/methods , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , Adult , Aged , Antigens, Viral/immunology , Coronavirus Nucleocapsid Proteins/immunology , Female , Humans , Immunoassay/methods , Immunoglobulin A/blood , Immunoglobulin G/blood , Immunoglobulin M/blood , Israel/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Phosphoproteins/immunology , Sensitivity and Specificity , Seroepidemiologic Studies , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/immunology , Young Adult
8.
Eur J Cancer ; 157: 124-131, 2021 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1401447

ABSTRACT

AIM: Patients with cancer are at an increased risk for severe coronavirus disease of 2019, thus data on the safety and efficacy of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccines are essential. We conducted this prospective study of patients with cancer vaccinated with BNT162b2 and monitored for antibody response and safety. The aim was to evaluate the rate of seropositivity and define predictors for non-reactive immune response. Furthermore, we evaluated the frequency and the severity of adverse events. METHODS: The study included patients with solid tumours undergoing anticancer treatment and immunocompetent health-care workers serving as controls. Serum titres of the receptor-binding domain (RBD) immunoglobulin G (IgG) and neutralising antibodies were measured 2-4 weeks after each vaccine dose. RESULTS: The analysis included 129 patients, of which 70.5% patients were metastatic. Patients were treated with chemotherapy (55%), immunotherapy (34.1%), biological agents (24.8%), hormonal treatment (8.5%) and radiotherapy (4.6%), that were given either alone or in combinations. The seropositivity rate among patients with cancer and controls was 32.4% versus 59.8% (p < 0.0001) after the first dose and 84.1% versus 98.9% (p < 0.0001) after the second dose, respectively. Median RBD-IgG titre was lower among patients than controls (p < 0.0001). Patients who were seronegative after the second dose had significantly more comorbidities than that with patients with seropositivity (77.8% vs 41.1%, respectively, p = 0.0042). CONCLUSION: Adequate antibody response after BNT162b2 vaccination was achieved after two doses but not after one dose, in patients with cancer vaccinated during anticancer therapy.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines/immunology , COVID-19/immunology , Neoplasms/immunology , Neoplasms/virology , Antibodies, Viral/immunology , Antineoplastic Agents/therapeutic use , Female , Health Personnel , Humans , Immunogenicity, Vaccine/immunology , Male , Middle Aged , Neoplasms/diet therapy , Prospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , Vaccination/methods
9.
JAMA Netw Open ; 4(8): e2122255, 2021 08 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1378909

ABSTRACT

Importance: Allergic reactions among some individuals who received the Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b2) COVID-19 vaccine discourage patients with allergic conditions from receiving this vaccine and physicians from recommending the vaccine. Objective: To describe the assessment and immunization of highly allergic individuals with the BNT162b2 vaccine. Design, Setting, and Participants: In a prospective cohort study from December 27, 2020, to February 22, 2021, 8102 patients with allergies who applied to the COVID 19 vaccine referral center at the Sheba Medical Center underwent risk assessment using an algorithm that included a detailed questionnaire. High-risk patients (n = 429) were considered "highly allergic" and were immunized under medical supervision. Exposures: Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b2) COVID-19 vaccine. Main Outcomes and Measures: Allergic and anaphylactic reactions after the first and second doses of BNT162b2 vaccine among highly allergic patients. Results: Of the 429 individuals who applied to the COVID-19 referral center and were defined as highly allergic, 304 (70.9%) were women and the mean (SD) age was 52 (16) years. This highly allergic group was referred to receive immunization under medical supervision. After the first dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine, 420 patients (97.9%) had no immediate allergic event, 6 (1.4%) developed minor allergic responses, and 3 (0.7%) had anaphylactic reactions. During the study period, 218 highly allergic patients (50.8%) received the second BNT162b2 vaccine dose, of which 214 (98.2%) had no allergic reactions and 4 patients (1.8%) had minor allergic reactions. Other immediate and late reactions were comparable with those seen in the general population, except for delayed itch and skin eruption, which were more common among allergic patients. Conclusions and Relevance: The rate of allergic reactions to BNT162b2 vaccine, is higher among patients with allergies, particularly among a subgroup with a history of high-risk allergies. This study suggests that most patients with a history of allergic diseases and, particularly, highly allergic patients can be safely immunized by using an algorithm that can be implemented in different medical facilities and includes a referral center, a risk assessment questionnaire, and a setting for immunization under medical supervision of highly allergic patients. Further studies are required to define more specific risk factors for allergic reactions to the BNT162b2 vaccine.


Subject(s)
Anaphylaxis/etiology , COVID-19 Vaccines/adverse effects , COVID-19/prevention & control , Vaccination/adverse effects , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Anaphylaxis/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Hypersensitivity/epidemiology , Hypersensitivity/etiology , Male , Middle Aged , Prevalence , Prospective Studies , Risk Assessment , SARS-CoV-2 , Young Adult
10.
J Heart Lung Transplant ; 2021 Aug 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1373008

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The repeated waves of the COVID-19 pandemic have highlighted the necessity to optimize vaccine responses in immunocompromised populations. We investigated the safety and immunogenicity of a third, booster, dose of the Pfizer BNT162b2 vaccine in heart transplant (HT) patients. METHODS: The cohort comprised 96 adult HT patients who received a third homologous dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine 168 days after the second dose. The vaccine-induced antibody responses of both receptor-binding domain (RBD) IgG and neutralizing antibodies were assessed in all patients, with a positive antibody response being defined as the presence of either IgG anti-RBD or neutralizing antibodies. For a subset of patients, T cell response was also studied. RESULTS: The third dose was associated with a low rate of adverse events, mostly mild pain at the injection site. No serious adverse events were recorded, and there were no episodes of rejection. At 18 days following the third dose of the vaccine, the positive antibody response increased from 23% to 67%, with a corresponding increase in neutralizing capacity. The third dose elicited SARS-CoV-2 neutralization titers >9-fold and IgG anti-RBD antibodies >3-fold of the range achieved after the two primary doses. Mycophenolate use, lower eGFR and higher C-reactive protein were independently associated with a reduced likelihood of generating an immune response. Importantly, a specific T-cell response following the third dose was evident in the majority of transplant recipients. CONCLUSIONS: An homologous third booster dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine gave overall consistent tolerability and a good safety profile, while eliciting humoral and cellular immune responses.

11.
Clin Microbiol Infect ; 27(12): 1851-1855, 2021 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1370463

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: The immunogenicity and safety of the Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine in people living with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (PLWH) are unknown. We aimed to assess the immunogenicity and safety of this vaccine in PLWH. METHODS: In this prospective open study, we enrolled 143 PLWH, aged ≥18 years, who attended our clinic and 261 immunocompetent health-care workers (HCWs). Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) receptor binding domain (RBD) IgG and neutralizing antibodies were measured. Adverse events, viral load and CD4 cell counts were monitored. RESULTS: At a median of 18 days (interquartile range 14-21 days) after the second dose, anti-RBD-IgG was positive in 139/141 (98%) PLWH. Among HCWs, 258/261 (98.9%) developed anti-RBD-IgG at a median of 26 days (interquartile range 24-27 days) after the second dose. Following the second dose, immune sera neutralized SARS-CoV-2 pseudo-virus in 97% and 98% of PLWH and HCWs, respectively. Adverse events were reported in 60% of PLWH, mainly pain at the injection site, fatigue and headache. AIDS-related adverse events were not reported. Human immunodeficiency virus load increased in 3/143 (2%) patients from <40 copies/mL to ≤100 copies/mL. CD4+ T-cell count decreased from a geometric mean of 700 cells/µL (95% CI 648-757 cells/µL) to 633.8 cells/µL (95% CI 588-683 cells/µL) (p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine appears immunogenic and safe in PLWH who are on antiretroviral therapy with unsuppressed CD4 count and suppressed viral load.

12.
PLoS One ; 16(7): e0255096, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1325440

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic raises the need for diverse diagnostic approaches to rapidly detect different stages of viral infection. The flexible and quantitative nature of single-molecule imaging technology renders it optimal for development of new diagnostic tools. Here we present a proof-of-concept for a single-molecule based, enzyme-free assay for detection of SARS-CoV-2. The unified platform we developed allows direct detection of the viral genetic material from patients' samples, as well as their immune response consisting of IgG and IgM antibodies. Thus, it establishes a platform for diagnostics of COVID-19, which could also be adjusted to diagnose additional pathogens.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing/methods , COVID-19 Serological Testing/methods , COVID-19/diagnosis , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , Single Molecule Imaging/methods , Viral Proteins/genetics , Antibodies, Viral/blood , Base Sequence , COVID-19/blood , COVID-19/immunology , COVID-19/virology , COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing/standards , COVID-19 Serological Testing/standards , Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay , Humans , Immune Sera/chemistry , Immunoglobulin G/blood , Immunoglobulin M/blood , Nasopharynx/virology , Polyproteins/blood , Polyproteins/genetics , RNA, Viral/blood , RNA, Viral/genetics , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Sensitivity and Specificity , Single Molecule Imaging/instrumentation , Viral Proteins/blood
13.
J Heart Lung Transplant ; 40(8): 759-762, 2021 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1198765

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Data on the safety and efficacy of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in immunocompromised populations are sparse. METHODS: We conducted a prospective study of 77 heart transplant (HT) recipients vaccinated with two doses of BNT162b2 vaccine and monitored for adverse events following both doses, the receptor-binding domain (RBD) IgG response, and neutralizing antibodies. RESULTS: BNT162b2 vaccination was associated with a low rate of adverse events, characterized mostly by pain at the injection site. By a mean 41 days post second dose there were no clinical episodes of rejection, as suggested by a troponin leak or allograft dysfunction. At a mean 21 days following the second dose, IgG anti-RBD antibodies were detectable in 14 (18%) HT recipients. Immune sera neutralized SARS-CoV-2 pseudo-virus in 8 (57%) of those with IgG anti-RBD antibodies. Immunosuppressive regimen containing mycophenolic acid was associated with lower odds of an antibody response (OR = 0.12, p = 0.042). CONCLUSIONS: Whether a longer time-frame for observation of an antibody response is required after vaccination in immunosuppressed individuals remains unknown.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines/immunology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Heart Transplantation , Postoperative Complications/prevention & control , Postoperative Complications/virology , Aged , Antibody Formation , COVID-19 Vaccines/adverse effects , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Prospective Studies
14.
Dermatol Ther ; 34(1): e14627, 2021 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-957827

ABSTRACT

Data regarding the risk for severe COVID19 in patients with autoimmune or inflammatory diseases are scarce. To estimate the risk of those patients to develop a more severe COVID19 infection All active patients and those with dermatologic and/or rheumatologic autoimmune/inflammatory diseases were identified in a single tertiary center. The charts of those tested positive for COVID19 between 1 March 2020 and 31 May 2020 reviewed including demographics, co-morbidities, and medications. COVID19 outcome of those with dermatologic and/or rheumatologic autoimmune/inflammatory diseases were compared to COVID19 infected matched controls without an autoimmune/inflammatory background. Overall, 974 of 381 268 active patients were tested positive for COVID19, including 35 out of 13 225 with dermatologic and/or rheumatologic autoimmune/inflammatory diseases. No statistically significant difference in severity of COVID19 infection or mortality rate was found. The rate of asymptomatic, mild, moderate, severe/critical and fatal COVID19 infection was 11.4%, 37.1%, 22.8%, 11.4%, and 17.1%, respectively, for the patients with autoimmune diseases and 17.8%, 45.8%, 10.9%, 6.8%, and 18.4%, respectively for the controls . Patients with autoimmune/inflammatory diseases seem not to develop a more severe COVID19 infection than controls.


Subject(s)
Autoimmune Diseases , COVID-19 , Inflammation/complications , Autoimmune Diseases/complications , Autoimmune Diseases/diagnosis , Autoimmune Diseases/epidemiology , COVID-19/complications , Female , Humans , Inflammation/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2 , Severity of Illness Index
15.
Intern Emerg Med ; 15(8): 1435-1443, 2020 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-718479

ABSTRACT

Among patients with Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), the ability to identify patients at risk for deterioration during their hospital stay is essential for effective patient allocation and management. To predict patient risk for critical COVID-19 based on status at admission using machine-learning models. Retrospective study based on a database of tertiary medical center with designated departments for patients with COVID-19. Patients with severe COVID-19 at admission, based on low oxygen saturation, low partial arterial oxygen pressure, were excluded. The primary outcome was risk for critical disease, defined as mechanical ventilation, multi-organ failure, admission to the ICU, and/or death. Three different machine-learning models were used to predict patient deterioration and compared to currently suggested predictors and to the APACHEII risk-prediction score. Among 6995 patients evaluated, 162 were hospitalized with non-severe COVID-19, of them, 25 (15.4%) patients deteriorated to critical COVID-19. Machine-learning models outperformed the all other parameters, including the APACHE II score (ROC AUC of 0.92 vs. 0.79, respectively), reaching 88.0% sensitivity, 92.7% specificity and 92.0% accuracy in predicting critical COVID-19. The most contributory variables to the models were APACHE II score, white blood cell count, time from symptoms to admission, oxygen saturation and blood lymphocytes count. Machine-learning models demonstrated high efficacy in predicting critical COVID-19 compared to the most efficacious tools available. Hence, artificial intelligence may be applied for accurate risk prediction of patients with COVID-19, to optimize patients triage and in-hospital allocation, better prioritization of medical resources and improved overall management of the COVID-19 pandemic.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/complications , Machine Learning/trends , Pneumonia, Viral/complications , Risk Assessment/methods , APACHE , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19 , Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Critical Illness/mortality , Critical Illness/therapy , Female , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , ROC Curve , Retrospective Studies , Risk Assessment/trends
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