Early prediction of severity in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using quantitative CT imaging.

PURPOSE: To evaluate whether the extent of COVID-19 pneumonia on CT scans using quantitative CT imaging obtained early in the illness can predict its future severity. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective single-center study on confirmed COVID-19 patients between January 18, 2020 and March 5, 2020. A quantitative AI algorithm was used to evaluate each patient's CT scan to determine the proportion of the lungs with pneumonia (VR) and the rate of change (RAR) in VR from scan to scan. Patients were classified as being in the severe or non-severe group based on their final symptoms. Penalized B-splines regression modeling was used to examine the relationship between mean VR and days from onset of symptoms in the two groups, with 95% and 99% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Median VR max was 18.6% (IQR 9.1-32.7%) in 21 patients in the severe group, significantly higher (P < 0.0001) than in the 53 patients in non-severe group (1.8% (IQR 0.4-5.7%)). RAR was increasing with a median RAR of 2.1% (IQR 0.4-5.5%) in severe and 0.4% (IQR 0.1-0.9%) in non-severe group, which was significantly different (P < 0.0001). Penalized B-spline analyses showed positive relationships between VR and days from onset of symptom. The 95% confidence limits of the predicted means for the two groups diverged 5 days after the onset of initial symptoms with a threshold of 11.9%. CONCLUSION: Five days after the initial onset of symptoms, CT could predict the patients who later developed severe symptoms with 95% confidence.

A CT-based radiomics nomogram for prediction of lung adenocarcinomas and granulomatous lesions in patient with solitary sub-centimeter solid nodules

PURPOSE: To develop a radiomics nomogram based on computed tomography (CT) images that can help differentiate lung adenocarcinomas and granulomatous lesions appearing as sub-centimeter solid nodules (SCSNs). MATERIALS AND METHODS: The records of 214 consecutive patients with SCSNs that were surgically resected and histologically confirmed as lung adenocarcinomas (n = 112) and granulomatous lesions (n = 102) from 2 medical institutions between October 2011 and June 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients from center 1 ware enrolled as training cohort (n = 150) and patients from center 2 were included as external validation cohort (n = 64), respectively. Radiomics features were extracted from non-contrast chest CT images preoperatively. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model was used for radiomics feature extraction and radiomics signature construction. Clinical characteristics, subjective CT findings, and radiomics signature were used to develop a predictive radiomics nomogram. The performance was examined by assessment of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: Lung adenocarcinoma was significantly associated with an irregular margin and lobulated shape in the training set (p = 0.001, <0.001) and external validation set (p = 0.016, = 0.018), respectively. The radiomics signature consisting of 22 features was significantly associated with lung adenocarcinomas of SCSNs (p <0.001). The radiomics nomogram incorporated the radiomics signature, gender and lobulated shape. The AUCs of combined model in the training and external validation dataset were 0.885 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.823-0.931), 0.808 (95% CI: 0.690-0.896), respectively. Decision curve analysis (DCA) demonstrated that the radiomics nomogram was clinically useful. CONCLUSION: A radiomics signature based on non-enhanced CT has the potential to differentiate between lung adenocarcinomas and granulomatous lesions. The radiomics nomogram incorporating the radiomics signature and subjective findings may facilitate the individualized, preoperative treatment in patients with SCSNs.