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1.
BMC Infect Dis ; 21(1): 1040, 2021 Oct 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1455942

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a declared global pandemic, causing a lot of death. How to quickly screen risk population for severe patients is essential for decreasing the mortality. Many of the predictors might not be available in all hospitals, so it is necessary to develop a simpler screening tool with predictors which can be easily obtained for wide wise. METHODS: This retrospective study included all the 813 confirmed cases diagnosed with COVID-19 before March 2nd, 2020 in a city of Hubei Province in China. Data of the COVID-19 patients including clinical and epidemiological features were collected through Chinese Disease Control and Prevention Information System. Predictors were selected by logistic regression, and then categorized to four different level risk factors. A screening tool for severe patient with COVID-19 was developed and tested by ROC curve. RESULTS: Seven early predictors for severe patients with COVID-19 were selected, including chronic kidney disease (OR 14.7), age above 60 (OR 5.6), lymphocyte count less than < 0.8 × 109 per L (OR 2.5), Neutrophil to Lymphocyte Ratio larger than 4.7 (OR 2.2), high fever with temperature ≥ 38.5℃ (OR 2.2), male (OR 2.2), cardiovascular related diseases (OR 2.0). The Area Under the ROC Curve of the screening tool developed by above seven predictors was 0.798 (95% CI 0.747-0.849), and its best cut-off value is > 4.5, with sensitivity 72.0% and specificity 75.3%. CONCLUSIONS: This newly developed screening tool can be a good choice for early prediction and alert for severe case especially in the condition of overload health service.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , Male , Mass Screening , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2
2.
PeerJ ; 8: e10497, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-948184

ABSTRACT

Background and objectives: The timing of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) is controversial in COVID-19 patients with acute respiratory hypoxemia. The study aimed to develop a novel predictor called cumulative oxygen deficit (COD) for the risk stratification. Methods: The study was conducted in four designated hospitals for treating COVID-19 patients in Jingmen, Wuhan, from January to March 2020. COD was defined to account for both the magnitude and duration of hypoxemia. A higher value of COD indicated more oxygen deficit. The predictive performance of COD was calculated in multivariable Cox regression models. Results: A number of 111 patients including 80 in the non-IMV group and 31 in the IMV group were included. Patients with IMV had substantially lower PaO2 (62 (49, 89) vs. 90.5 (68, 125.25) mmHg; p < 0.001), and higher COD (-6.87 (-29.36, 52.38) vs. -231.68 (-1040.78, 119.83) mmHg·day) than patients without IMV. As compared to patients with COD < 0, patients with COD > 30 mmHg·day had higher risk of fatality (HR: 3.79, 95% CI [2.57-16.93]; p = 0.037), and those with COD > 50 mmHg·day were 10 times more likely to die (HR: 10.45, 95% CI [1.28-85.37]; p = 0.029). Conclusions: The study developed a novel predictor COD which considered both magnitude and duration of hypoxemia, to assist risk stratification of COVID-19 patients with acute respiratory distress.

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