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Infection ; 50(2): 359-370, 2022 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1316346


PURPOSE: While more advanced COVID-19 necessitates medical interventions and hospitalization, patients with mild COVID-19 do not require this. Identifying patients at risk of progressing to advanced COVID-19 might guide treatment decisions, particularly for better prioritizing patients in need for hospitalization. METHODS: We developed a machine learning-based predictor for deriving a clinical score identifying patients with asymptomatic/mild COVID-19 at risk of progressing to advanced COVID-19. Clinical data from SARS-CoV-2 positive patients from the multicenter Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2 Infected Patients (LEOSS) were used for discovery (2020-03-16 to 2020-07-14) and validation (data from 2020-07-15 to 2021-02-16). RESULTS: The LEOSS dataset contains 473 baseline patient parameters measured at the first patient contact. After training the predictor model on a training dataset comprising 1233 patients, 20 of the 473 parameters were selected for the predictor model. From the predictor model, we delineated a composite predictive score (SACOV-19, Score for the prediction of an Advanced stage of COVID-19) with eleven variables. In the validation cohort (n = 2264 patients), we observed good prediction performance with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.73 ± 0.01. Besides temperature, age, body mass index and smoking habit, variables indicating pulmonary involvement (respiration rate, oxygen saturation, dyspnea), inflammation (CRP, LDH, lymphocyte counts), and acute kidney injury at diagnosis were identified. For better interpretability, the predictor was translated into a web interface. CONCLUSION: We present a machine learning-based predictor model and a clinical score for identifying patients at risk of developing advanced COVID-19.

COVID-19 , Early Warning Score , Area Under Curve , COVID-19/diagnosis , Humans , Machine Learning , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2
Dig Dis ; 39(5): 540-548, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-729441


BACKGROUND: The COVID-19-pandemic poses challenges to the medical system and especially to endoscopic staff and patients. National, European and International societies provided recommendations on how to safely perform endoscopic procedures during the current pandemic. Until now, the effect of the current pandemic on tertiary endoscopy centers has not been reported. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this was to analyze the influence of the early SARS-CoV2-pandemic on endoscopic care and work flow in 2 European tertiary endoscopy units. METHODS: Data from 2 tertiary endoscopy units (Katowice and Munich) were retrospectively collected during the early pandemic and compared to an equivalent pre-pandemic period. Data include procedures, complications, benchmarks, and influence on endoscopy training. RESULTS: During the early pandemic, we noted a highly significant decrease (49.1%) in the overall number of all endoscopies with a significant increase in therapeutic procedures. Besides, there were no significant differences in the number of urgent endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography or interventional endoscopic ultrasound procedures. The exceptional situation reduced endoscopic procedures performed by trainees significantly. CONCLUSIONS: The SARS-CoV2-pandemic halved the endoscopy service of 2 tertiary centers while maintaining an urgent therapeutic service. Recommended personal safety measures in endoscopy proved to be efficient and safe in preventing SARS-CoV2 infection of staff or spreading. Unnecessarily, the SARS-CoV2 pandemic prevented routine endoscopy training.

COVID-19 , Infection Control , Pandemics , Adult , Aged , Endoscopy , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , RNA, Viral , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2