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1.
International Journal of Infectious Diseases ; 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-1804272

ABSTRACT

Background : Epidemic of COVID-19 strained hospital resources. We describe temporal trends in mortality risk and lengths of stay in hospital and intensive cares units (ICUs) among COVID-19 patients hospitalized through the first three epidemic waves in Canada. Methods : We used population-based provincial hospitalization data from the epicenters of Canada (Ontario and Québec). Adjusted estimates were obtained using marginal standardization of logistic regression models, accounting for patient-level and hospital-level determinants. Results : Using all hospitalizations from Ontario (N=26,541) and Québec (N=23,857), we found that unadjusted in-hospital mortality risks peaked at 31% in the first wave and was lowest at the end of the third wave at 6-7%. This general trend remained after adjustment. The odds of in-hospital mortality in the highest patient load quintile was 1.2 (95%CI: 1.0-1.4;Ontario) and 1.6 (95%CI: 1.3-1.9;Québec) times that of the lowest quintile. Mean hospital and ICU lengths of stay decreased over time but ICU stays were consistently higher in Ontario than Québec. Conclusion : In-hospital mortality risks and lengths of ICU stay declined over time, despite changing patient demographics. Continuous population-based monitoring of patient outcomes in an evolving epidemic is necessary for health system preparedness and response.

2.
Lancet ; 399(10327): 803-813, 2022 02 26.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1747475

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Intimate partner violence against women is a global public health problem with many short-term and long-term effects on the physical and mental health of women and their children. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call for its elimination in target 5.2. To monitor governments' progress towards SDG target 5.2, this study aimed to provide global, regional, and country baseline estimates of physical or sexual, or both, violence against women by male intimate partners. METHODS: This study developed global, regional, and country estimates, based on data from the WHO Global Database on Prevalence of Violence Against Women. These data were identified through a systematic literature review searching MEDLINE, Global Health, Embase, Social Policy, and Web of Science, and comprehensive searches of national statistics and other websites. A country consultation process identified additional studies. Included studies were conducted between 2000 and 2018, representative at the national or sub-national level, included women aged 15 years or older, and used act-based measures of physical or sexual, or both, intimate partner violence. Non-population-based data, including administrative data, studies not generalisable to the whole population, studies with outcomes that only provided the combined prevalence of physical or sexual, or both, intimate partner violence with other forms of violence, and studies with insufficient data to allow extrapolation or imputation were excluded. We developed a Bayesian multilevel model to jointly estimate lifetime and past year intimate partner violence by age, year, and country. This framework adjusted for heterogeneous age groups and differences in outcome definition, and weighted surveys depending on whether they were nationally or sub-nationally representative. This study is registered with PROSPERO (number CRD42017054100). FINDINGS: The database comprises 366 eligible studies, capturing the responses of 2 million women. Data were obtained from 161 countries and areas, covering 90% of the global population of women and girls (15 years or older). Globally, 27% (uncertainty interval [UI] 23-31%) of ever-partnered women aged 15-49 years are estimated to have experienced physical or sexual, or both, intimate partner violence in their lifetime, with 13% (10-16%) experiencing it in the past year before they were surveyed. This violence starts early, affecting adolescent girls and young women, with 24% (UI 21-28%) of women aged 15-19 years and 26% (23-30%) of women aged 19-24 years having already experienced this violence at least once since the age of 15 years. Regional variations exist, with low-income countries reporting higher lifetime and, even more pronouncedly, higher past year prevalence compared with high-income countries. INTERPRETATION: These findings show that intimate partner violence against women was already highly prevalent across the globe before the COVID-19 pandemic. Governments are not on track to meet the SDG targets on the elimination of violence against women and girls, despite robust evidence that intimate partner violence can be prevented. There is an urgent need to invest in effective multisectoral interventions, strengthen the public health response to intimate partner violence, and ensure it is addressed in post-COVID-19 reconstruction efforts. FUNDING: UK Department for International Development through the UN Women-WHO Joint Programme on Strengthening Violence against Women Data, and UNDP-UN Population Fund-UNICEF-WHO-World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development, and Research Training in Human Reproduction, a cosponsored programme executed by WHO.


Subject(s)
Global Health , Intimate Partner Violence , Public Health , Sexual Partners , Sustainable Development/trends , Adolescent , Adult , COVID-19 , Databases, Factual , Female , Humans , Intimate Partner Violence/prevention & control , Intimate Partner Violence/statistics & numerical data , Male , Prevalence , Risk Factors , Sexual Partners/psychology , World Health Organization , Young Adult
3.
Int J Infect Dis ; 118: 73-82, 2022 Feb 23.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1700024

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Many studies have examined the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on SARS-CoV-2 transmission worldwide. However, less attention has been devoted to understanding the limits of NPIs across the course of the pandemic and along a continuum of their stringency. In this study, we explore the relationship between the growth of SARS-CoV-2 cases and an NPI stringency index across Canada before the accelerated vaccine roll-out. METHODS: We conducted an ecological time-series study of daily SARS-CoV-2 case growth in Canada from February 2020 to February 2021. Our outcome was a back-projected version of the daily growth ratio in a stringency period (i.e., a 10-point range of the stringency index) relative to the last day of the previous period. We examined the trends in case growth using a linear mixed-effects model accounting for stringency period, province, and mobility in public domains. RESULTS: Case growth declined rapidly by 20-60% and plateaued within the first month of the first wave, irrespective of the starting values of the stringency index. When stringency periods increased, changes in case growth were not immediate and were faster in the first wave than in the second. In the first wave, the largest decreasing trends from our mixed effects model occurred in both early and late stringency periods, depending on the province, at a geometric mean index value of 30⋅1 out of 100. When compared with the first wave, the stringency periods in the second wave possessed little association with case growth. CONCLUSIONS: The minimal association in the first wave, and the lack thereof in the second, is compatible with the hypothesis that NPIs do not, per se, lead to a decline in case growth. Instead, the correlations we observed might be better explained by a combination of underlying behaviors of the populations in each province and the natural dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. Although there exist alternative explanations for the equivocal relationship between NPIs and case growth, the onus of providing evidence shifts to demonstrating how NPIs can consistently have flat association, despite incrementally high stringency.

4.
CMAJ ; 194(6): E195-E204, 2022 02 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1686132

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Understanding inequalities in SARS-CoV-2 transmission associated with the social determinants of health could help the development of effective mitigation strategies that are responsive to local transmission dynamics. This study aims to quantify social determinants of geographic concentration of SARS-CoV-2 cases across 16 census metropolitan areas (hereafter, cities) in 4 Canadian provinces, British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec. METHODS: We used surveillance data on confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases and census data for social determinants at the level of the dissemination area (DA). We calculated Gini coefficients to determine the overall geographic heterogeneity of confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 in each city, and calculated Gini covariance coefficients to determine each city's heterogeneity by each social determinant (income, education, housing density and proportions of visible minorities, recent immigrants and essential workers). We visualized heterogeneity using Lorenz (concentration) curves. RESULTS: We observed geographic concentration of SARS-CoV-2 cases in cities, as half of the cumulative cases were concentrated in DAs containing 21%-35% of their population, with the greatest geographic heterogeneity in Ontario cities (Gini coefficients 0.32-0.47), followed by British Columbia (0.23-0.36), Manitoba (0.32) and Quebec (0.28-0.37). Cases were disproportionately concentrated in areas with lower income and educational attainment, and in areas with a higher proportion of visible minorities, recent immigrants, high-density housing and essential workers. Although a consistent feature across cities was concentration by the proportion of visible minorities, the magnitude of concentration by social determinant varied across cities. INTERPRETATION: Geographic concentration of SARS-CoV-2 cases was observed in all of the included cities, but the pattern by social determinants varied. Geographically prioritized allocation of resources and services should be tailored to the local drivers of inequalities in transmission in response to the resurgence of SARS-CoV-2.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Demography/statistics & numerical data , Social Determinants of Health/statistics & numerical data , COVID-19/economics , Canada/epidemiology , Cities/epidemiology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Demography/economics , Humans , SARS-CoV-2 , Social Determinants of Health/economics , Socioeconomic Factors
5.
Clin Infect Dis ; 2022 Jan 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1627755

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: People in prison are at increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection due to overcrowding and challenges in implementing infection prevention and control measures. We examined the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and associated carceral risk factors among incarcerated adult men in Quebec, Canada. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional seroprevalence study in 2021 in three provincial prisons, representing 45% of Quebec's incarcerated male provincial population. The primary outcome was SARS-CoV-2 antibody seropositivity (Roche Elecsys® serology test). Participants completed self-administered questionnaires on sociodemographic, clinical, and carceral characteristics. The association of carceral variables with SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity was examined using Poisson regression models with robust standard errors. Crude and adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were calculated. RESULTS: Between January 19 and September 15, 2021, 246 of 1,100 (22%) recruited individuals tested positive across three prisons (range 15-27%). Seropositivity increased with time spent in prison since March 2020 (aPR 2.17, 95%CI 1.53-3.07 for "all" vs. "little time"), employment during incarceration (aPR 1.64, 95%CI 1.28-2.11 vs. not), shared meal consumption during incarceration ("with cellmates": aPR 1.46, 95%CI 1.08-1.97 vs. "alone"; "with sector": aPR 1.34, 95%CI 1.03-1.74 vs. "alone"), and incarceration post-prison outbreak (aPR 2.32, 95% CI 1.69-3.18 vs. "pre-outbreak"). CONCLUSIONS: The seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among incarcerated individuals was high and varied between prisons. Several carceral factors were associated with seropositivity, underscoring the importance of decarceration and occupational safety measures, individual meal consumption, and enhanced infection prevention and control measures including vaccination during incarceration.

6.
EuropePMC; 2021.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-297081

ABSTRACT

Background: Epidemic waves of COVID-19 strained hospital resources. We describe temporal trends in mortality risk and length of stay in intensive cares units (ICUs) among COVID-19 patients hospitalized through the first three epidemic waves in Canada. Methods: We used population-based provincial hospitalization data from Ontario and Québec to examine mortality risk and lengths of ICU stay. For each province, adjusted estimates were obtained using marginal standardization of logistic regression models, adjusting for patient-level characteristics and hospital-level determinants. Results: Using all hospitalizations from Ontario (N=26,541) and Québec (N=23,857), we found that unadjusted in-hospital mortality risks peaked at 31% in the first wave and was lowest at the end of the third wave at 6-7%. This general trend remained after controlling for confounders. The odds of in-hospital mortality in the highest hospital occupancy quintile was 1.2 (95%CI: 1.0-1.4;Ontario) and 1.6 (95%CI: 1.3-1.9;Québec) times that of the lowest quintile. Variants of concerns were associated with an increased in-hospital mortality. Length of ICU stay decreased over time from a mean of 16 days (SD=18) to 15 days (SD=15) in the third wave but were consistently higher in Ontario than Québec by 3-6 days. Conclusion: In-hospital mortality risks and lengths of ICU stay declined over time in both provinces, despite changing patient demographics, suggesting that new therapeutics and treatment, as well as improved clinical protocols, could have contributed to this reduction. Continuous population-based monitoring of patient outcomes in an evolving epidemic is necessary for health system preparedness and response.

7.
2021.
Preprint in English | Other preprints | ID: ppcovidwho-296345

ABSTRACT

Background There is a growing recognition that strategies to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission should be responsive to local transmission dynamics. Studies have revealed inequalities along social determinants of health, but little investigation was conducted surrounding geographic concentration within cities. We quantified social determinants of geographic concentration of COVID-19 cases across sixteen census metropolitan areas (CMA) in four Canadian provinces. Methods We used surveillance data on confirmed COVID-19 cases at the level of dissemination area. Gini (co-Gini) coefficients were calculated by CMA based on the proportion of the population in ranks of diagnosed cases and each social determinant using census data (income, education, visible minority, recent immigration, suitable housing, and essential workers) and the corresponding share of cases. Heterogeneity was visualized using Lorenz (concentration) curves. Results Geographic concentration was observed in all CMAs (half of the cumulative cases were concentrated among 21-35% of each city’s population): with the greatest geographic heterogeneity in Ontario CMAs (Gini coefficients, 0.32-0.47), followed by British Columbia (0.23-0.36), Manitoba (0.32), and Québec (0.28-0.37). Cases were disproportionately concentrated in areas with lower income, education attainment, and suitable housing;and higher proportion of visible minorities, recent immigrants, and essential workers. Although a consistent feature across CMAs was concentration by proportion visible minorities, the magnitude of concentration by social determinants varied across CMAs. Interpretation The feature of geographical concentration of COVID-19 cases was consistent across CMAs, but the pattern by social determinants varied. Geographically-prioritized allocation of resources and services should be tailored to the local drivers of inequalities in transmission in response to SARS-CoV-2’s resurgence.

8.
EuropePMC; 2021.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-295207

ABSTRACT

Background: People in prison are at increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection due to overcrowding and challenges in implementing infection prevention and control measures. We examined the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and associated risk factors among incarcerated adult men in Quebec, Canada.Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional seroprevalence study in 2021 in three provincial prisons, representing 45% of Quebec’s incarcerated male provincial population. The primary outcome was SARS-CoV-2 antibody seropositivity (Roche Elecsys® serology test). Participants completed self-administered questionnaires on sociodemographic, clinical, and carceral characteristics. The association of carceral variables with SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity was examined using Poisson regression models with robust standard errors. Crude and adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were calculated.Findings: Between January 19 and September 15, 2021, 246 of 1,100 (22%) recruited individuals tested positive across three prisons (range 15–27%). Seropositivity increased with time spent in prison since March 2020 (aPR 2·17, 95%CI 1·53–3·07 for “all” vs. “little time”), employment during incarceration (aPR 1·64, 95%CI 1·28–2·11 vs. not), shared meal consumption during incarceration (“with cellmates”: aPR 1·46, 95%CI 1·08–1.97 vs. “alone”;“with sector”: aPR 1·34, 95%CI 1·03–1·74 vs. “alone”), and incarceration post-prison outbreak (aPR 2·32, 95% CI 1·69–3·18 vs. “pre-outbreak”).Interpretation: The seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among incarcerated individuals was high and varied between prisons. Several carceral factors were associated with seropositivity, underscoring the importance of decarceration and occupational safety measures, individual meal consumption, and enhanced infection prevention and control measures including vaccination during incarceration. Funding Information: The Public Health Agency of Canada funded this study (# 2021-HQ-000103). Declaration of Interests: CD, AH, SC, JS, HP, LDB, and SP declare no competing interests. NK reports research funding from Gilead Sciences, advisory fees from Gilead Sciences, ViiV Healthcare, Merck and Abbvie, and speaker fees from Gilead Sciences and Merck, all outside of the submitted work. MMG reports an investigator-sponsored research grant from Gilead Sciences Inc. MMG reports contractual arrangements with the World Health Organization, the Institut national de santé publique du Québec, and the Institut d’excellence en santé et services sociaux du Québec, all outside of the submitted work. MPC reports grants from the McGill Interdisciplinary Initiative in Infection and Immunity and from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research. MPC reports personal fees from GEn1E Lifesciences and form nplex biosciences, both outside the submitted work. MPC is the co-founder of Kanvas Biosciences, Inc. and owns equity in the company. MPC has a pending patent for Methods for detecting tissue damage, graft versus host disease, and infections using cell-free DNA profiling pending, and a pending patent for Methods for assessing the severity and progression of SARS-CoV-2 infections using cell-free DNA. JC has research funding from ViiV Healthcare and Gilead Sciences, and reports remuneration for advisory work (ViiV Healthcare, Gilead Sciences and Merck Canada), outside the submitted work.Ethics Approval Statement: Participants provided written informed consent and received an honorarium of $10 CAD for their study participation. This study was approved by the McGill University Health Centre Research Ethics Board (MUHC REB #2021–6888) and the Direction régionale des services correctionnels du Québec (#2020–12493).

9.
Ann Epidemiol ; 65: 84-92, 2022 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1525672

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Inequities in the burden of COVID-19 were observed early in Canada and around the world, suggesting economically marginalized communities faced disproportionate risks. However, there has been limited systematic assessment of how heterogeneity in risks has evolved in large urban centers over time. PURPOSE: To address this gap, we quantified the magnitude of risk heterogeneity in Toronto, Ontario from January to November 2020 using a retrospective, population-based observational study using surveillance data. METHODS: We generated epidemic curves by social determinants of health (SDOH) and crude Lorenz curves by neighbourhoods to visualize inequities in the distribution of COVID-19 and estimated Gini coefficients. We examined the correlation between SDOH using Pearson-correlation coefficients. RESULTS: Gini coefficient of cumulative cases by population size was 0.41 (95% confidence interval [CI]:0.36-0.47) and estimated for: household income (0.20, 95%CI: 0.14-0.28); visible minority (0.21, 95%CI:0.16-0.28); recent immigration (0.12, 95%CI:0.09-0.16); suitable housing (0.21, 95%CI:0.14-0.30); multigenerational households (0.19, 95%CI:0.15-0.23); and essential workers (0.28, 95%CI:0.23-0.34). CONCLUSIONS: There was rapid epidemiologic transition from higher- to lower-income neighborhoods with Lorenz curve transitioning from below to above the line of equality across SDOH. Moving forward necessitates integrating programs and policies addressing socioeconomic inequities and structural racism into COVID-19 prevention and vaccination programs.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Geography , Humans , Ontario/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2 , Socioeconomic Factors
10.
EuropePMC; 2021.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-292101

ABSTRACT

Background: Many studies have examined the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on SARS-CoV-2 transmission worldwide. However, less attention has been devoted to understanding the limits of NPIs across the course of the pandemic and along a continuum of their stringency. In this study, we explore the relationship between the growth of SARS-CoV-2 cases and a stringency index across Canada prior to accelerated vaccine roll-out.Methods: We conducted an ecological time-series study of daily SARS-CoV-2 case growth in Canada from February 2020 to February 2021. Our outcome was a back-projected version of the daily growth ratio in a stringency period (i.e., a 10-point range of the stringency index) relative to the last day of the previous period. We examined the trends in case growth using a linear mixed effects model accounting for stringency period, province, and mobility in public domains.Results: Case growth declined, rapidly, by 37–50% and began plateauing within the first two weeks of the first wave, irrespective of the starting values of the stringency index. Across individual stringency periods, there was a lag of 11·3 days, on average, to observe the largest cumulative decline in relative growth. The largest decreasing trends from our mixed effects model occurred over the first stringency period in each province, at a mean index value of 25·2 out of 100.Conclusions: There was a negative correlation between NPI stringency and growth of SARS-CoV-2 that attenuated throughout the course of Canada’s epidemic. We suggest that individual- and network-level risk factors need to guide the use of NPIs in future epidemics.

11.
PLoS One ; 16(10): e0258383, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1463318

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Characterization of populations at risk of acquiring HIV is required to inform the public health response to HIV. To identify potential changing needs in HIV prevention and care cascade, we aim to describe how the demographic profiles and exposure categories of newly diagnosed HIV positive individuals attending a large sexual health clinic in Montréal (Canada) evolved since the beginning of the antiretroviral therapy era in the mid-1990s. METHODS: Using diagnosis data from participants of the Clinique médicale l'Actuel cohort of HIV-positive patients, we examined the distribution of exposure categories (sexual orientation, sexual behaviours, injection drug use, being born in an HIV-endemic country) by gender and year of diagnosis. Time trends in mean age and in the proportion of patients with late (CD4 <350 cells/µL) or advanced stage (CD4 <200 cells/µL) of HIV infection at diagnosis were assessed through meta-regressions. RESULTS: A total of 2,612 patients diagnosed with HIV between January 1st, 1995 and December 31st, 2019 were included. Overall, mean age was 35 years (standard deviation: 10 years) and remained stable over time. The proportion of patients with advanced stage of HIV infection decreased from 16% in 1995 to 4% in 2019. Although men who have sex with men (MSM) consistently accounted for the highest proportion of new diagnoses (77%, 2,022/2,612 overall), their proportion decreased since 2013. There was also a concomitant decrease in the proportion of people who inject drugs, with none of the newly diagnosed participants reporting injection drug use since 2017, and an important increase in the proportion of patients born in an HIV-endemic country (24%, 7/29 in 2019), especially among women. Compared to patients from non-endemic countries, those from HIV-endemic countries were characterized by higher proportions of heterosexuals (88% vs 17%) and of women (52% vs 7%), and were twice likely to get diagnosed at an advanced stage of HIV infection (32% vs 15%). CONCLUSIONS: In absolute numbers, MSM continue to account for the largest exposure category. However, patients from HIV-endemic countries, who tend to be diagnosed at later stages of HIV infection, constitute an increasing proportion of newly diagnosed individuals. These persons could face distinct barriers to rapid diagnosis. Tailoring HIV testing strategies and other prevention interventions to the specific unmet prevention needs of these individuals is warranted.


Subject(s)
HIV Infections , Adult , Female , Homosexuality, Male , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Young Adult
13.
Front Public Health ; 9: 653612, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1264394

ABSTRACT

Despite significant progress on the proportion of individuals who know their HIV status in 2020, Côte d'Ivoire (76%), Senegal (78%), and Mali (48%) remain far below, and key populations (KP) including female sex workers (FSW), men who have sex with men (MSM), and people who use drugs (PWUD) are the most vulnerable groups with a HIV prevalence at 5-30%. HIV self-testing (HIVST), a process where a person collects his/her own specimen, performs a test, and interprets the result, was introduced in 2019 as a new testing modality through the ATLAS project coordinated by the international partner organisation Solthis (IPO). We estimate the costs of implementing HIVST through 23 civil society organisations (CSO)-led models for KP in Côte d'Ivoire (N = 7), Senegal (N = 11), and Mali (N = 5). We modelled costs for programme transition (2021) and early scale-up (2022-2023). Between July 2019 and September 2020, a total of 51,028, 14,472, and 34,353 HIVST kits were distributed in Côte d'Ivoire, Senegal, and Mali, respectively. Across countries, 64-80% of HIVST kits were distributed to FSW, 20-31% to MSM, and 5-8% to PWUD. Average costs per HIVST kit distributed were $15 for FSW (Côte d'Ivoire: $13, Senegal: $17, Mali: $16), $23 for MSM (Côte d'Ivoire: $15, Senegal: $27, Mali: $28), and $80 for PWUD (Côte d'Ivoire: $16, Senegal: $144), driven by personnel costs (47-78% of total costs), and HIVST kits costs (2-20%). Average costs at scale-up were $11 for FSW (Côte d'Ivoire: $9, Senegal: $13, Mali: $10), $16 for MSM (Côte d'Ivoire: $9, Senegal: $23, Mali: $17), and $32 for PWUD (Côte d'Ivoire: $14, Senegal: $50). Cost reductions were mainly explained by the spreading of IPO costs over higher HIVST distribution volumes and progressive IPO withdrawal at scale-up. In all countries, CSO-led HIVST kit provision to KP showed relatively high costs during the study period related to the progressive integration of the programme to CSO activities and contextual challenges (COVID-19 pandemic, country safety concerns). In transition to scale-up and integration of the HIVST programme into CSO activities, this model shows large potential for substantial economies of scale. Further research will assess the overall cost-effectiveness of this model.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , HIV Infections , Sex Workers , Sexual and Gender Minorities , Cote d'Ivoire/epidemiology , Female , HIV Infections/diagnosis , Homosexuality, Male , Humans , Male , Mali/epidemiology , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , Self-Testing , Senegal
14.
J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr ; 87(3): 899-911, 2021 07 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1169727

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic indirectly impacts HIV epidemiology in Central/West Africa. We estimated the potential impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to HIV prevention/treatment services and sexual partnerships on HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths among key populations including female sex workers (FSW), their clients, men who have sex with men, and overall. SETTING: Yaoundé (Cameroon) and Cotonou (Benin). METHODS: We used mathematical models of HIV calibrated to city population-specific and risk population-specific demographic/behavioral/epidemic data. We estimated the relative change in 1-year HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths for various disruption scenarios of HIV prevention/treatment services and decreased casual/commercial partnerships, compared with a scenario without COVID-19. RESULTS: A 50% reduction in condom use in all partnerships over 6 months would increase 1-year HIV incidence by 39%, 42%, 31%, and 23% among men who have sex with men, FSW, clients, and overall in Yaoundé, respectively, and 69%, 49%, and 23% among FSW, clients, and overall, respectively, in Cotonou. Combining a 6-month interruption of ART initiation and 50% reduction in HIV prevention/treatment use would increase HIV incidence by 50% and HIV-related deaths by 20%. This increase in HIV infections would be halved by a simultaneous 50% reduction in casual and commercial partnerships. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in condom use after COVID-19 would increase infections among key populations disproportionately, particularly FSW in Cotonou, who need uninterrupted condom provision. Disruptions in HIV prevention/treatment services have the biggest impacts on HIV infections and deaths overall, only partially mitigated by equal reductions in casual/commercial sexual partnerships. Maintaining ART provision must be prioritized to minimize short-term excess HIV-related deaths.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/complications , COVID-19/epidemiology , HIV Infections/complications , HIV Infections/epidemiology , HIV-1 , SARS-CoV-2 , Benin/epidemiology , Cameroon/epidemiology , Condoms , Female , Humans , Male , Models, Biological , Risk Factors , Safe Sex , Sex Workers , Urban Population
15.
Int J Infect Dis ; 102: 254-259, 2021 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-893931

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: The North American coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) epidemic exhibited distinct early trajectories. In Canada, Quebec had the highest COVID-19 burden and its earlier March school break, taking place two weeks before those in other provinces, could have shaped early transmission dynamics. METHODS: We combined a semi-mechanistic model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with detailed surveillance data from Quebec and Ontario (initially accounting for 85% of Canadian cases) to explore the impact of case importation and timing of control measures on cumulative hospitalizations. RESULTS: A total of 1544 and 1150 cases among returning travelers were laboratory-confirmed in Quebec and Ontario, respectively (symptoms onset ≤03-25-2020). Hospitalizations could have been reduced by 55% (95% CrI: 51%-59%) if no cases had been imported after Quebec's March break. However, if Quebec had experienced Ontario's number of introductions, hospitalizations would have only been reduced by 12% (95% CrI: 8%-16%). Early public health measures mitigated the epidemic spread as a one-week delay could have resulted in twice as many hospitalizations (95% CrI: 1.7-2.1). CONCLUSION: Beyond introductions, factors such as public health preparedness, responses and capacity could play a role in explaining interprovincial differences. In a context where regions are considering lifting travel restrictions, coordinated strategies and proactive measures are to be considered.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/transmission , SARS-CoV-2 , Travel , Adult , Aged , COVID-19/epidemiology , Canada/epidemiology , Humans , Middle Aged , Models, Theoretical , Public Health
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