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1.
Non-conventional in English | MEDLINE, Grey literature | ID: grc-750603

ABSTRACT

A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and has caused over 240,000 cases of COVID-19 worldwide as of March 19, 2020. Previous studies have supported an epidemiological hypothesis that cold and dry environments facilitate the survival and spread of droplet-mediated viral diseases, and warm and humid environments see attenuated viral transmission (e.g., influenza). However, the role of temperature and humidity in transmission of COVID-19 has not yet been established. Here, we examine the spatial variability of the basic reproductive numbers of COVID-19 across provinces and cities in China and show that environmental variables alone cannot explain this variability. Our findings suggest that changes in weather alone (i.e., increase of temperature and humidity as spring and summer months arrive in the Northern Hemisphere) will not necessarily lead to declines in case count without the implementation of extensive public health interventions.

2.
Non-conventional in English | [Unspecified Source], Grey literature | ID: grc-750600

ABSTRACT

As of February 11, 2020, more than 43,000 cases of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) have been reported worldwide. Using publicly available data regarding the transmissibility potential (i.e. basic reproduction number) of 2019-nCoV, we demonstrate that relevant preprint studies generated considerable search and news media interest prior to the publication of peer-reviewed studies in the same topic area. We then show that preprint estimate ranges for the basic reproduction number associated with 2019-nCoV overlap with those presented by peer-reviewed studies that were published at a later date. Taken together, we argue that preprints are capable of driving global discourse during public health crises;however, we recommend that a consensus-based approach - as we have employed here - be considered as a means of assessing the robustness of preprint findings prior to peer review.

3.
EClinicalMedicine ; 40: 101112, 2021 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1377702

ABSTRACT

Background: Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) consensus criteria were designed for maximal sensitivity and therefore capture patients with acute COVID-19 pneumonia. Methods: We performed unsupervised clustering on data from 1,526 patients (684 labeled MIS-C by clinicians) <21 years old hospitalized with COVID-19-related illness admitted between 15 March 2020 and 31 December 2020. We compared prevalence of assigned MIS-C labels and clinical features among clusters, followed by recursive feature elimination to identify characteristics of potentially misclassified MIS-C-labeled patients. Findings: Of 94 clinical features tested, 46 were retained for clustering. Cluster 1 patients (N = 498; 92% labeled MIS-C) were mostly previously healthy (71%), with mean age 7·2 ± 0·4 years, predominant cardiovascular (77%) and/or mucocutaneous (82%) involvement, high inflammatory biomarkers, and mostly SARS-CoV-2 PCR negative (60%). Cluster 2 patients (N = 445; 27% labeled MIS-C) frequently had pre-existing conditions (79%, with 39% respiratory), were similarly 7·4 ± 2·1 years old, and commonly had chest radiograph infiltrates (79%) and positive PCR testing (90%). Cluster 3 patients (N = 583; 19% labeled MIS-C) were younger (2·8 ± 2·0 y), PCR positive (86%), with less inflammation. Radiographic findings of pulmonary infiltrates and positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR accurately distinguished cluster 2 MIS-C labeled patients from cluster 1 patients. Interpretation: Using a data driven, unsupervised approach, we identified features that cluster patients into a group with high likelihood of having MIS-C. Other features identified a cluster of patients more likely to have acute severe COVID-19 pulmonary disease, and patients in this cluster labeled by clinicians as MIS-C may be misclassified. These data driven phenotypes may help refine the diagnosis of MIS-C.

4.
JAMA Netw Open ; 4(6): e2112596, 2021 06 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1265355

ABSTRACT

Importance: Additional sources of pediatric epidemiological and clinical data are needed to efficiently study COVID-19 in children and youth and inform infection prevention and clinical treatment of pediatric patients. Objective: To describe international hospitalization trends and key epidemiological and clinical features of children and youth with COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study included pediatric patients hospitalized between February 2 and October 10, 2020. Patient-level electronic health record (EHR) data were collected across 27 hospitals in France, Germany, Spain, Singapore, the UK, and the US. Patients younger than 21 years who tested positive for COVID-19 and were hospitalized at an institution participating in the Consortium for Clinical Characterization of COVID-19 by EHR were included in the study. Main Outcomes and Measures: Patient characteristics, clinical features, and medication use. Results: There were 347 males (52%; 95% CI, 48.5-55.3) and 324 females (48%; 95% CI, 44.4-51.3) in this study's cohort. There was a bimodal age distribution, with the greatest proportion of patients in the 0- to 2-year (199 patients [30%]) and 12- to 17-year (170 patients [25%]) age range. Trends in hospitalizations for 671 children and youth found discrete surges with variable timing across 6 countries. Data from this cohort mirrored national-level pediatric hospitalization trends for most countries with available data, with peaks in hospitalizations during the initial spring surge occurring within 23 days in the national-level and 4CE data. A total of 27 364 laboratory values for 16 laboratory tests were analyzed, with mean values indicating elevations in markers of inflammation (C-reactive protein, 83 mg/L; 95% CI, 53-112 mg/L; ferritin, 417 ng/mL; 95% CI, 228-607 ng/mL; and procalcitonin, 1.45 ng/mL; 95% CI, 0.13-2.77 ng/mL). Abnormalities in coagulation were also evident (D-dimer, 0.78 ug/mL; 95% CI, 0.35-1.21 ug/mL; and fibrinogen, 477 mg/dL; 95% CI, 385-569 mg/dL). Cardiac troponin, when checked (n = 59), was elevated (0.032 ng/mL; 95% CI, 0.000-0.080 ng/mL). Common complications included cardiac arrhythmias (15.0%; 95% CI, 8.1%-21.7%), viral pneumonia (13.3%; 95% CI, 6.5%-20.1%), and respiratory failure (10.5%; 95% CI, 5.8%-15.3%). Few children were treated with COVID-19-directed medications. Conclusions and Relevance: This study of EHRs of children and youth hospitalized for COVID-19 in 6 countries demonstrated variability in hospitalization trends across countries and identified common complications and laboratory abnormalities in children and youth with COVID-19 infection. Large-scale informatics-based approaches to integrate and analyze data across health care systems complement methods of disease surveillance and advance understanding of epidemiological and clinical features associated with COVID-19 in children and youth.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Electronic Health Records/statistics & numerical data , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , Adolescent , Child , Child, Preschool , Female , Global Health , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Male , Retrospective Studies
5.
J Med Internet Res ; 23(3): e22219, 2021 03 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1088863

ABSTRACT

Coincident with the tsunami of COVID-19-related publications, there has been a surge of studies using real-world data, including those obtained from the electronic health record (EHR). Unfortunately, several of these high-profile publications were retracted because of concerns regarding the soundness and quality of the studies and the EHR data they purported to analyze. These retractions highlight that although a small community of EHR informatics experts can readily identify strengths and flaws in EHR-derived studies, many medical editorial teams and otherwise sophisticated medical readers lack the framework to fully critically appraise these studies. In addition, conventional statistical analyses cannot overcome the need for an understanding of the opportunities and limitations of EHR-derived studies. We distill here from the broader informatics literature six key considerations that are crucial for appraising studies utilizing EHR data: data completeness, data collection and handling (eg, transformation), data type (ie, codified, textual), robustness of methods against EHR variability (within and across institutions, countries, and time), transparency of data and analytic code, and the multidisciplinary approach. These considerations will inform researchers, clinicians, and other stakeholders as to the recommended best practices in reviewing manuscripts, grants, and other outputs from EHR-data derived studies, and thereby promote and foster rigor, quality, and reliability of this rapidly growing field.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Data Collection/methods , Electronic Health Records , Data Collection/standards , Humans , Peer Review, Research/standards , Publishing/standards , Reproducibility of Results , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification
6.
J Am Med Inform Assoc ; 28(7): 1411-1420, 2021 07 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1075534

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: The Consortium for Clinical Characterization of COVID-19 by EHR (4CE) is an international collaboration addressing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) with federated analyses of electronic health record (EHR) data. We sought to develop and validate a computable phenotype for COVID-19 severity. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Twelve 4CE sites participated. First, we developed an EHR-based severity phenotype consisting of 6 code classes, and we validated it on patient hospitalization data from the 12 4CE clinical sites against the outcomes of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and/or death. We also piloted an alternative machine learning approach and compared selected predictors of severity with the 4CE phenotype at 1 site. RESULTS: The full 4CE severity phenotype had pooled sensitivity of 0.73 and specificity 0.83 for the combined outcome of ICU admission and/or death. The sensitivity of individual code categories for acuity had high variability-up to 0.65 across sites. At one pilot site, the expert-derived phenotype had mean area under the curve of 0.903 (95% confidence interval, 0.886-0.921), compared with an area under the curve of 0.956 (95% confidence interval, 0.952-0.959) for the machine learning approach. Billing codes were poor proxies of ICU admission, with as low as 49% precision and recall compared with chart review. DISCUSSION: We developed a severity phenotype using 6 code classes that proved resilient to coding variability across international institutions. In contrast, machine learning approaches may overfit hospital-specific orders. Manual chart review revealed discrepancies even in the gold-standard outcomes, possibly owing to heterogeneous pandemic conditions. CONCLUSIONS: We developed an EHR-based severity phenotype for COVID-19 in hospitalized patients and validated it at 12 international sites.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Electronic Health Records , Severity of Illness Index , COVID-19/classification , Hospitalization , Humans , Machine Learning , Prognosis , ROC Curve , Sensitivity and Specificity
7.
Sci Rep ; 10(1): 17002, 2020 10 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-851311

ABSTRACT

First identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has affected over 16,800,000 people worldwide as of July 29, 2020 and was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020. Influenza studies have shown that influenza viruses survive longer on surfaces or in droplets in cold and dry air, thus increasing the likelihood of subsequent transmission. A similar hypothesis has been postulated for the transmission of COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2. It is important to propose methodologies to understand the effects of environmental factors on this ongoing outbreak to support decision-making pertaining to disease control. Here, we examine the spatial variability of the basic reproductive numbers of COVID-19 across provinces and cities in China and show that environmental variables alone cannot explain this variability. Our findings suggest that changes in weather (i.e., increase of temperature and humidity as spring and summer months arrive in the Northern Hemisphere) will not necessarily lead to declines in case counts without the implementation of drastic public health interventions.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Humidity , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/transmission , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Cold Temperature , Environment , Hot Temperature , Humans , Pandemics , Population Dynamics , SARS-CoV-2
9.
Preprint | SSRN | ID: ppcovidwho-1281

ABSTRACT

As with all diagnostic tests, PCR and serology tests are imperfect, sometimes producing false negatives and sometimes false positives. While the sensitivity and

10.
Preprint | SSRN | ID: ppcovidwho-500

ABSTRACT

As of February 11, 2020, more than 43,000 cases of a novel coronavirus (2019–nCoV) have been reported worldwide. Using publicly available data regarding the tra

11.
Preprint | SSRN | ID: ppcovidwho-217

ABSTRACT

Between December 1, 2019 and January 26, 2020, nearly 3000 cases of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China have been reported In this short analysis, we combine publicly available cumulative case data from the ongoing outbreak with phenomenological modeling methods to conduct an early transmissibility assessment Our model suggests that the basic reproduction number associated with the outbreak (at time of writing) may range from 2 0 to 3 1 Though these estimates are preliminary and subject to change, they are consistent with previous findings regarding the transmissibility of the related SARS-Coronavirus and indicate the possibility of epidemic potential

12.
NPJ Digit Med ; 3: 109, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-728999

ABSTRACT

We leveraged the largely untapped resource of electronic health record data to address critical clinical and epidemiological questions about Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). To do this, we formed an international consortium (4CE) of 96 hospitals across five countries (www.covidclinical.net). Contributors utilized the Informatics for Integrating Biology and the Bedside (i2b2) or Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (OMOP) platforms to map to a common data model. The group focused on temporal changes in key laboratory test values. Harmonized data were analyzed locally and converted to a shared aggregate form for rapid analysis and visualization of regional differences and global commonalities. Data covered 27,584 COVID-19 cases with 187,802 laboratory tests. Case counts and laboratory trajectories were concordant with existing literature. Laboratory tests at the time of diagnosis showed hospital-level differences equivalent to country-level variation across the consortium partners. Despite the limitations of decentralized data generation, we established a framework to capture the trajectory of COVID-19 disease in patients and their response to interventions.

13.
SSRN ; : 3552677, 2020 Mar 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-679361

ABSTRACT

A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and has caused over 240,000 cases of COVID-19 worldwide as of March 19, 2020. Previous studies have supported an epidemiological hypothesis that cold and dry environments facilitate the survival and spread of droplet-mediated viral diseases, and warm and humid environments see attenuated viral transmission (e.g., influenza). However, the role of temperature and humidity in transmission of COVID-19 has not yet been established. Here, we examine the spatial variability of the basic reproductive numbers of COVID-19 across provinces and cities in China and show that environmental variables alone cannot explain this variability. Our findings suggest that changes in weather alone (i.e., increase of temperature and humidity as spring and summer months arrive in the Northern Hemisphere) will not necessarily lead to declines in case count without the implementation of extensive public health interventions.

14.
SSRN ; : 3536663, 2020 Feb 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-679347

ABSTRACT

As of February 11, 2020, more than 43,000 cases of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) have been reported worldwide. Using publicly available data regarding the transmissibility potential (i.e. basic reproduction number) of 2019-nCoV, we demonstrate that relevant preprint studies generated considerable search and news media interest prior to the publication of peer-reviewed studies in the same topic area. We then show that preprint estimate ranges for the basic reproduction number associated with 2019-nCoV overlap with those presented by peer-reviewed studies that were published at a later date. Taken together, we argue that preprints are capable of driving global discourse during public health crises; however, we recommend that a consensus-based approach - as we have employed here - be considered as a means of assessing the robustness of preprint findings prior to peer review.

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