Post-marketing active surveillance of Guillan Barré Syndrome following vaccination with anti-COVID-19 vaccines in persons aged >=12 years in Italy: a multi-database self-controlled case series study (preprint)

Background Case reports of Guillain Barre syndrome (GBS) following the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines administration have been reported. This study investigated the risk of GBS after vaccination with anti-COVID-19 vaccines (BNT162b2/Tozinameran; mRNA-1273/Elasomeran, ChAdOx1-S and Ad26.COV2-S) in the population aged [≥]12 years in Italy. Methods We conducted a self-controlled case series study (SCCS) using national data on COVID-19 vaccination linked to emergency care/hospital discharge databases. The outcome was the first diagnosis of GBS between 27 December 2020 and 30 September 2021. Exposure risk period were days 0 (vaccination day) through 42 days following each of the 2 vaccine doses. The remaining periods were considered as non at risk (baseline) period. The SCCS model, adapted to event-dependent exposures, was fitted using unbiased estimating equations to estimate relative incidences (RIs) and excess of cases (EC) per 100,000 vaccinated by dose and vaccine product. Calendar period was included as time-varying confounder in the model. Results The study included 15,986,009 persons who received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine. During the 42-day risk interval there were a total of 67 cases of GBS after the first dose and 41 cases after the second dose. In the 42-day risk interval, increased risks were observed after the administration of first dose (RI=6.83; 95% CI 2.14-21.85) and second dose (RI=7.41; 95% CI 2.35-23.38) for mRNA-1273 vaccine, corresponding to 0.4 and 0.3 EC per 100,000 vaccinated, respectively. Increased risk was also observed after the first dose of ChAdOx1-S vaccine (RI=6.52; 95% CI 2.88-14.77), corresponding to 1.0 EC per 100,000 vaccinated. There was no evidence of increased risk of GBS after vaccination with BNT162b2 and Ad26.COV2-S vaccines. In the subgroup analysis by sex an increased risk of GBS was observed among both males and females after mRNA-1273 vaccine. In males an increased risk was observed after the first dose, with a borderline significance (RI=5.26; 95% CI 0.94-29.42, p=0.06) and the second dose (RI=16.50; 95% CI 3.01-90.56) and in females after the first dose (RI=13.44; 95% CI 2.83-63.80). There was also evidence of an increased risk after a first dose of ChAdOx1-S in males (RI=4.94; 95% CI 1.84-13.28) and females (RI=7.14; 95% CI 1.94-26.19). In the subgroup analysis by age, there was evidence of an increased risk of GBS with mRNA-1273 vaccine among those aged [≥]60 years after the first (RI=8.03; 95% CI 2.08-31.03) and second dose (RI=7.71; 95% CI 2.38-24.97). After a first dose of ChAdOx1-S there was evidence of an increased risk of GBS in those aged 40-59 (RI=4.50; 95% CI 1.37-14.79) and in those aged [≥]60 years (RI=6.84; 95% CI 2.56-18.28). There was no evidence of increased risk of GBS after vaccination with BNT162b2 and Ad26.COV2-S vaccines in the subgroup analysis by age and sex. Study limitations include that the outcome was not validated through review of clinical records, the possibility of time-dependent residual confounding and the imprecision of the obtained estimates in the subgroup analysis due to the very low number of events. Conclusions It is important the continuous monitoring of the suspected adverse events of the COVID-19 vaccines as key component of any vaccination program. Results from this large SCCS study showed an increased risk of GBS after first and second dose of mRNA-1273 and first dose of ChAdOx1-S. However, these findings were compatible with a small number of EC. Our data are reassuring regarding BNT162b and Ad26.COV2-S vaccines with respect to GBS outcome. No increased risk of GBS was detected following each of BNT162b vaccine dose nor any increased risk after Ad26.COV2-S vaccine dose.

Post-marketing active surveillance of myocarditis and pericarditis following vaccination with COVID-19 mRNA vaccines in persons aged 12-39 years in Italy: a multi-database, self-controlled case series study (preprint)

Objectives To investigate the association between SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines, BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273, and myocarditis/pericarditis. Design Self-Controlled Case Series study (SCCS) using national data on COVID-19 vaccination and emergency care/hospital admissions. Setting Italian Regions (Lombardia, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Veneto, Lazio). Participants 2,861,809 individuals, aged 12-39 years, vaccinated with the first doses of mRNA vaccines (2,405,759 BNT162b2 and 456,050 mRNA-1273) between 27 December 2020 and 30 September 2021. Main outcome measures First diagnosis of myocarditis/pericarditis within the study period. The incidence of events in the exposure risk periods (0-21 days from the vaccination day, subdivided in three equal intervals) for first and second dose was compared with baseline period. The SCCS model was fitted using conditional Poisson regression to estimate Relative Incidences (RI) and Excess of Cases (EC) per 100,000 vaccinated by dose, age, gender and brand. Results During the study period, 441 participants aged 12-39 years developed myocarditis/pericarditis (346 BNT162b2 and 95 mRNA-1273). During the 21-day risk interval there were 114 cases of myocarditis/pericarditis (74 BNT162b2 and 40 mRNA-1273) corresponding to a RI of 1.27 (0.87-1.85) and 2.16 (1.50-3.10) after first and second dose, respectively. An increased risk of myocarditis/pericarditis at (0-7) days was observed after first [RI=6.55; 95% Confidence Interval (2.73-15.72); EC per 100,000 vaccinated=2.0 (1.5-2.3)] and second dose [RI=7.59 (3.26-17.65); EC=5.5 (4.4-5.9)] of mRNA-1273 and after second dose of BNT162b2 [RI=3.39 (2.02-5.68); EC=0.8 (0.6-1.0)]. In males, an increased risk at (0-7) days was observed after first [RI=12.28, 4.09-36.83; EC=3.8 (3.1-4.0)] and second dose [RI=11.91 (3.88-36.53); EC=8.8 (7.2-9.4)] of mRNA-1273 and after second dose of BNT162b2 [RI=3.45 (1.78-6.68); EC=1.0 (0.6-1.2)]. In females, an increased risk at (0-7) days was observed after second dose of BNT162b2 [RI=3.38 (1.47-7.74); EC=0.7 (0.3-0.9)]. At (0-7) days an increased risk following second dose of BNT162b2 was observed in the 12-17 years old [RI=5.74, (1.52-21.72); EC=1.7 (0.7-1.9)] and in 18-29 years old [RI=4.02 (1.81-8.91); EC=1.1 (0.6-1.3)]. At (0-7) days an increased risk after first [RI=7.58 (2.62-21.94); EC=3.5 (2.4-3.8)] and second [RI=9.58 (3.32-27.58); EC=8.3 (6.7-9.2)] dose of mRNA-1273 was found in 18-29 years old and after first dose in 30-39 years old [RI=6.57 (1.32-32.63); EC=1.0 (0.3-1.1)]. Conclusions This population-based study indicates that mRNA vaccines were associated with myocarditis/pericarditis in the population younger than 40 years, whereas no association was observed in older subjects. The risk increased after the second dose and in the youngest for both vaccines, remained moderate following vaccination with BNT162b2, while was higher in males following vaccination with mRNA-1273. The public health implication of these findings should be weighed in the light of the overall efficacy and safety profile of both vaccines.

Inflammatory Burden and Persistent CT Lung Abnormalities in COVID-19 Patients (preprint)

Inflammatory burden is associated with COVID-19 severity and outcomes. Residual computed tomography (CT) lung abnormalities have been reported after COVID-19. The aim was to evaluate the association between inflammatory burden during COVID-19 and residual lung CT abnormalities collected on follow-up CT scans performed 2–3 and 6–7 months after COVID-19, in severe COVID-19 pneumonia survivors. C-reactive protein (CRP) curves describing inflammatory burden during the clinical course were built, and CRP peaks, velocities of increase, and integrals were calculated. Other putative determinants were age, sex, mechanical ventilation, lowest PaO2/FiO2 ratio, D-dimer peak, and length of hospital stay (LOS). Of the 259 included patients (median age 65 years; 30.5% females), 202 (78%) and 100 (38.6%) had residual, predominantly non-fibrotic, abnormalities at 2-3 and 6-7 months, respectively. In age- and sex-adjusted models, best CRP predictors for residual abnormalities were CRP peak (odds ratio [OR] for one standard deviation [SD] increase=1.79; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.23-2.62) at 2-3 months and CRP integral (OR for one SD increase=2.24; 95%CI=1.53-3.28) at 6-7 months. Hence, inflammation is associated with short- and medium-term lung damage in COVID-19. Other severity measures, including mechanical ventilation and LOS, but not D-dimer, were mediators of the relationship between CRP and residual abnormalities.

A Prognostic Model for Death in COVID-19 Patients Presenting to the Emergency Room: The Added Value of Computed Tomography. (preprint)

Objective: The added value of CT in prognostic models for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients is unclear. The aim of this study was to develop a prognostic model for death in COVID-19 patients using clinical and CT variables.Methods: Consecutive patients who presented to the emergency room between February 27 and March 23, 2020 for suspected COVID-19, underwent chest CT, and had a positive swab within 10 days were included in this retrospective study. Age, sex, comorbidities, days from symptom onset, and laboratory data were retrieved from institutional information systems. CT disease extension was visually graded as < 20%, 20-39%, 40-59%, or ≥ 60%. The association between clinical and CT variables with death was estimated with univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models; model performance was assessed using k-fold cross-validation for the area under the ROC curve (CvAUC).Results: Of the 866 included patients (median age 59.8, women 39.2%), 93 (10.74%) died. Clinical variables significantly associated with death in multivariable model were age, male sex, HDL cholesterol, dementia, heart failure, vascular diseases, time from symptom onset, neutrophils, LDH, and oxygen saturation level (SO2). CT disease extension was also independently associated with death (HR=7.56, 95% CI=3.49; 16.38 for ≥ 60% extension). CvAUCs were 0.927 (bootstrap bias corrected-95%CI=0.899-0.947) for the clinical model and 0.936 (bootstrap bias corrected-95%CI=0.912-0.953) when adding CT extension.Conclusions: A prognostic model based on clinical variables is highly accurate in predicting death in COVID-19 patients. Adding CT disease extension to the model scarcely improves its accuracy.

Tocilizumab for patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. The TOCIVID-19 phase 2 trial (preprint)

BackgroundTocilizumab blocks pro-inflammatory activity of interleukin-6 (IL-6), involved in pathogenesis of pneumonia the most frequent cause of death in COVID-19 patients. MethodsA multicentre, single-arm, hypothesis-driven phase 2 trial was planned to study the effect of Tocilizumab on lethality rates at 14 and 30 days (co-primary endpoints). A cohort of patients consecutively enrolled after phase 2 was used as a validation dataset. A multivariable logistic regression was performed to generate hypotheses, while controlling for possible confounders. Resultsout of 301 patients in phase 2 intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis, 180 (59.8%) received tocilizumab. With 67 death events, lethality rates were 18.4% (97.5%CI: 13.6-24.0, P=0.52) and 22.4% (97.5%CI: 17.2-28.3, P<0.001) at 14 and 30 days. Lethality rates were lower in the validation dataset, including 920 patients. No signal of specific drug toxicity was reported. The multivariable logistic regression suggests tocilizumab might be more effective in patients not requiring mechanical respiratory support at baseline. Also, it supports a positive effect on lethality rate of the use of corticosteroids. ConclusionsTocilizumab reduced lethality rate at 30 days compared with null hypothesis, without significant toxicity. Such result support the use of tocilizumab while waiting for ongoing phase 3 trials. RegistrationEudraCT (2020-001110-38); clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04317092)

Survival of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Northern Italy: a population-based cohort study by the ITA-COVID19 Network (preprint)

BackgroundCOVID-19 case fatality rate in hospitalized patients varies across countries and studies, but reliable estimates specific for age, sex, and comorbidities are needed to design trials for COVID-19 interventions. Aim of this study is to provide population-based survival curves of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. MethodsA cohort study was conducted in Lombardy, Veneto, and Reggio Emilia using COVID-19 registries linked to hospital discharge databases containing patient clinical histories. All patients with positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test on oral/nasopharyngeal swabs hospitalized from 21st February to 21st April 2020 were identified. Kaplan Meier survival estimates were calculated at 14 and 30 days for death in any setting, stratifying by age, sex and Charlson Index. FindingsOverall, 42,926 hospitalized COVID-19 patients were identified. Patients median age was 69 years (IQR: 57-79), 62{middle dot}6% were males, 69{middle dot}4% had a Charlson Index of 0. In total, 11,205 (26{middle dot}1%) patients died over a median follow-up of 24 days (IQR: 10-35). Survival curves showed that 22{middle dot}0% of patients died within 14 days and 27{middle dot}6% within 30 days of hospitalization. Survival was higher in younger patients and in females. Younger patients with comorbidities had a lower survival than older ones with comorbidities. InterpretationOver 27% of hospitalized COVID-19 patients died within one month in three areas of Northern Italy that were heavily affected by SARS-CoV-2 infection. Such a high fatality rate suggests that trials should focus on survival and have follow-up of at least one month. FundingThe study did not receive any external funding. Research in contextEvidence before this study Two recent systematic reviews with meta-analyses report case fatality rates of three to four percent in COVID-19 patients. Most studies on hospitalized cohorts report only slightly higher figures. These figures do not correspond to those derived from routinely collected clinical data in most European countries, reporting a 10% case fatality rate which has been increasing over time since the epidemic started. Robust and precise survival estimates of hospitalized COVID-19 patients which take into account prognostic factors such as age, sex and burden of comorbidities are needed to design appropriate phase II and phase III clinical studies of drugs targeting COVID-19. Added value of this studyIn this study we present the first survival estimates by age, sex and Charlson index for a large population-based cohort of Italian hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Implications of all the available evidenceOver 27% of COVID-19 patients died within one month from hospital admission. Such a high fatality rate suggests that studies should prioritize mortality as primary outcome. Furthermore, we found that the fatality rate reaches a plateau 30 days after hospitalization, suggesting that studies should have at least one month of follow up to observe deaths; shorter follow-up could lead to overestimation of treatment benefits.

Comparison between CT and RT-PCR in a cohort of symptomatic patients with suspected COVID-19 pneumonia during the outbreak peak in Italy (preprint)

Objective: To assess sensitivity and specificity of CT vs RT-PCR for the diagnosis of COVID-19 pneumonia in a prospective Italian cohort of symptomatic patients during the outbreak peak.Methods: In this cross-sectional study we included all consecutive patients who presented to the ER between March 13th and 23rd for suspected COVID-19 and underwent both CT and RT-PCR within 3 days. Using a structured report, radiologists prospectively classified CTs in highly suggestive, suggestive, and non-suggestive of COVID-19 pneumonia. Ground-glass, consolidation, and visual extension of parenchymal changes were collected. Three different RT-PCR-based reference standard definitions were used. Oxygen saturation level, CRP, LDH, and blood cell counts were collected and compared between CT/RT-PCR classes.Results: The study included 696 patients (41.4% women; age 59±15.8 years): 423/454 (93%) patients with highly suggestive CT, 97/127 (76%) with suggestive CT, and 31/115 (27%) with non-suggestive CT had positive RT-PCR. CT sensitivity ranged from 73% to 77% and from 90% to 94% for high and low positivity threshold, respectively. Specificity ranged from 79% to 84% for high positivity threshold and was about 58% for low positivity threshold. PPV remained ≥90% in all cases. Ground-glass was more frequent in patients with positive RT-PCR in all CT classes. Blood tests were significantly associated with RT-PCR and CT classes. Leukocytes, lymphocytes, neutrophils, and platelets decreased, CRP and LDH increased from non-suggestive to suggestive CT classes.Conclusions: During the outbreak peak, CT presented high PPV and may be considered a good reference to recognize COVID-19 patients while waiting for RT-PCR confirmation.