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1.
The Lancet Respiratory Medicine ; 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-1799636

ABSTRACT

Summary Background The duration of protection against the omicron (B.1.1.529) variant for current COVID-19 vaccines is not well characterised. Vaccine-specific estimates are especially needed. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and durability of two and three doses of the BNT162b2 (Pfizer–BioNTech) mRNA vaccine against hospital and emergency department admissions due to the delta (B.1.617.2) and omicron variants. Methods In this case–control study with a test-negative design, we analysed electronic health records of members of Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC), a large integrated health system in California, USA, from Dec 1, 2021, to Feb 6, 2022. Vaccine effectiveness was calculated in KPSC patients aged 18 years and older admitted to hospital or an emergency department (without a subsequent hospital admission) with a diagnosis of acute respiratory infection and tested for SARS-CoV-2 via PCR. Adjusted vaccine effectiveness was estimated with odds ratios from adjusted logistic regression models. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04848584). Findings Analyses were done for 11 123 hospital or emergency department admissions. In adjusted analyses, effectiveness of two doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine against the omicron variant was 41% (95% CI 21–55) against hospital admission and 31% (16–43) against emergency department admission at 9 months or longer after the second dose. After three doses, effectiveness of BNT162b2 against hospital admission due to the omicron variant was 85% (95% CI 80–89) at less than 3 months but fell to 55% (28–71) at 3 months or longer, although confidence intervals were wide for the latter estimate. Against emergency department admission, the effectiveness of three doses of BNT162b2 against the omicron variant was 77% (72–81) at less than 3 months but fell to 53% (36–66) at 3 months or longer. Trends in waning against SARS-CoV-2 outcomes due to the delta variant were generally similar, but with higher effectiveness estimates at each timepoint than those seen for the omicron variant. Interpretation Three doses of BNT162b2 conferred high protection against hospital and emergency department admission due to both the delta and omicron variants in the first 3 months after vaccination. However, 3 months after receipt of a third dose, waning was apparent against SARS-CoV-2 outcomes due to the omicron variant, including hospital admission. Additional doses of current, adapted, or novel COVD-19 vaccines might be needed to maintain high levels of protection against subsequent waves of SARS-CoV-2 caused by the omicron variant or future variants with similar escape potential. Funding Pfizer.

2.
Vaccines (Basel) ; 10(3)2022 Mar 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1792392

ABSTRACT

Observational studies are needed to demonstrate real-world vaccine effectiveness (VE) against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outcomes. Our objective was to conduct a review of published SARS-CoV-2 VE articles, supplemented by preprints, during the first 6 months of COVID-19 vaccine availability. This review compares the effectiveness of completing the primary COVID-19 vaccination series against multiple SARS-CoV-2 disease presentations and disease severity outcomes in three population groups (general population, frontline workers, and older adults). Four hundred and seventy-one published articles and 47 preprints were identified. After title and abstract screening and full article review, 50 studies (28 published articles, 22 preprints) were included. VE results were reported for five COVID-19 vaccines and four combinations of COVID-19 vaccines. VE results for BNT162b2 were reported in 70.6% of all studies. Seventeen studies reported variant specific VE estimates; Alpha was the most common. This comprehensive review demonstrates that COVID-19 vaccination is an important tool for preventing COVID-19 morbidity and mortality among fully vaccinated persons aged 16 years and older and serves as an important baseline from which to follow future trends in COVID-19 evolution and effectiveness of new and updated vaccines.

3.
Lancet Reg Health Am ; 9: 100191, 2022 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1773616

ABSTRACT

Background: On Dec 14, 2020, the United States initiated a nationwide COVID-19 vaccination campaign. Demonstrating clear population-level impact following vaccine introduction helps to further elucidate and quantify the public-health benefits of vaccination. Methods: Using a negative binomial regression model we evaluated the ecological association between county-level COVID-19 vaccine uptake and rates of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States from April 1, 2021 through October 31, 2021 controlling for a broad set of county-level environmental, sociodemographic, economic, and health-status-related characteristics. County-level data were obtained from several publicly available databases that were merged for analysis. Findings: After adjustment for county-level characteristics, US counties with ≥ 80% of their residents ≥ 12 years of age fully vaccinated against COVID-19 had 30% (95% CI: 25-35; P < .001) and 46% (38-52; P < .001) lower rates of COVID-19 cases and deaths, respectively, versus those with <50% coverage (reference group). A dose response was observed: counties with 70-79% uptake had 20% (95% CI: 16-24; P < .001) and 35% (29-40; P < .001) lower rates of cases and deaths, respectively; counties with 60-69% uptake had 8% (5-11; P < .001) and 20% (15-24; P < .001) lower rates; and counties with 50-59% uptake had 2% (0-4; P =.09) and 8% (4-12; P < .001) lower rates. Restricting the analysis to the period when the Delta variant was predominant (June 1, 2021 ‒ October 31, 2021) showed similar findings. Interpretation: Our results showed that US counties with higher proportions of persons ≥ 12 years of age fully vaccinated against COVID-19 had substantially lower rates of COVID-19 cases and deaths-a finding that showed dose response and persisted even in the period when Delta was predominant. Funding: Pfizer.

4.
Lancet Reg Health Am ; : 100198, 2022 Feb 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1693148

ABSTRACT

Background: Globally, recommendations are expanding for third (booster) doses of BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech). In the United States, as of November 19, 2021, boosters were recommended for all adults aged 18 years and older. We evaluated the effectiveness of a third dose of BNT162b2 among adults in a large US integrated health system. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we analyzed electronic health records from Kaiser Permanente Southern California between Dec 14, 2020 and Dec 5, 2021 to assess vaccine effectiveness (VE) of two and three doses of BNT162b2 against SARS-CoV-2 infections (without hospital admission) andCOVID-19-related hospital admission. VE was calculated using hazards ratios from adjusted Cox models. Findings: After only two doses, VE against infection declined from 85% (95% CI 83-86) during the first month to 49% (46-51) ≥ 7 months following vaccination. Overall VE against hospitalization was 90% (95% CI 86-92) within one month and did not wane, however, effectiveness against hospitalization appeared to wane among immunocompromised individuals but was not statistically significant (93% [72-98] at 1 month to 74% [45-88] after ≥ 7 months; p=0·490). Three-dose VE (median follow-up 1·3 months [SD 0·6]) was 88% (95% CI 86-89) against infection and 97% (95-98) against hospitalization. Effectiveness after three doses was higher than that seen one month after receiving only two doses for both outcomes. Relative VE of three doses compared to two (with at least six months after the second dose) was 75% (95% CI 71-78) against infections and 70% (48-83) against hospital admissions. Interpretation: These data support the benefit of broad BNT162b2 booster recommendations, as three doses confers comparable, if not better, protection against SARS-CoV-2 infections and hospital admission as was seen soon after receiving two doses. Funding: Pfizer Inc.

5.
Lancet Regional Health. Americas ; 2022.
Article in English | EuropePMC | ID: covidwho-1679198

ABSTRACT

Background Globally, recommendations are expanding for third (booster) doses of BNT162b2 (Pfizer–BioNTech). In the United States, as of November 19, 2021, boosters were recommended for all adults aged 18 years and older. We evaluated the effectiveness of a third dose of BNT162b2 among adults in a large US integrated health system. Methods In this retrospective cohort study, we analyzed electronic health records from Kaiser Permanente Southern California between Dec 14, 2020 and Dec 5, 2021 to assess vaccine effectiveness (VE) of two and three doses of BNT162b2 against SARS-CoV-2 infections (without hospital admission) andCOVID-19-related hospital admission. VE was calculated using hazards ratios from adjusted Cox models. Findings After only two doses, VE against infection declined from 85% (95% CI 83–86) during the first month to 49% (46–51) ≥ 7 months following vaccination. Overall VE against hospitalization was 90% (95% CI 86–92) within one month and did not wane, however, effectiveness against hospitalization appeared to wane among immunocompromised individuals but was not statistically significant (93% [72–98] at 1 month to 74% [45–88] after ≥ 7 months;p=0·490). Three-dose VE (median follow-up 1·3 months [SD 0·6]) was 88% (95% CI 86–89) against infection and 97% (95–98) against hospitalization. Effectiveness after three doses was higher than that seen one month after receiving only two doses for both outcomes. Relative VE of three doses compared to two (with at least six months after the second dose) was 75% (95% CI 71−78) against infections and 70% (48−83) against hospital admissions. Interpretation These data support the benefit of broad BNT162b2 booster recommendations, as three doses confers comparable, if not better, protection against SARS-CoV-2 infections and hospital admission as was seen soon after receiving two doses. Funding Pfizer Inc.

6.
Open Forum Infect Dis ; 9(2): ofab647, 2022 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1649188

ABSTRACT

Background: Information is needed to monitor progress toward a level of population immunity to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sufficient to disrupt viral transmission. We estimated the percentage of the US population with presumed immunity to SARS-CoV-2 due to vaccination, natural infection, or both as of August 26, 2021. Methods: Publicly available data as of August 26, 2021, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were used to calculate presumed population immunity by state. Seroprevalence data were used to estimate the percentage of the population previously infected with SARS-CoV-2, with adjustments for underreporting. Vaccination coverage data for both fully and partially vaccinated persons were used to calculate presumed immunity from vaccination. Finally, we estimated the percentage of the total population in each state with presumed immunity to SARS-CoV-2, with a sensitivity analysis to account for waning immunity, and compared these estimates with a range of population immunity thresholds. Results: In our main analysis, which was the most optimistic scenario, presumed population immunity varied among states (43.1% to 70.6%), with 19 states with ≤60% of their population having been infected or vaccinated. Four states had presumed immunity greater than thresholds estimated to be sufficient to disrupt transmission of less infectious variants (67%), and none were greater than the threshold estimated for more infectious variants (≥78%). Conclusions: The United States remains a distance below the threshold sufficient to disrupt viral transmission, with some states remarkably low. As more infectious variants emerge, it is critical that vaccination efforts intensify across all states and ages for which the vaccines are approved.

7.
PLoS One ; 17(1): e0262347, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1606863

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has substantially impacted healthcare utilization worldwide. The objective of this retrospective analysis of a large hospital discharge database was to compare all-cause and cause-specific hospitalizations during the first six months of the pandemic in the United States with the same months in the previous four years. METHODS: Data were collected from all hospitals in the Premier Healthcare Database (PHD) and PHD Special Release reporting hospitalizations from January through July for each year from 2016 through 2020. Hospitalization trends were analyzed stratified by age group, major diagnostic categories (MDCs), and geographic region. RESULTS: The analysis included 286 hospitals from all 9 US Census divisions. The number of all-cause hospitalizations per month was relatively stable from 2016 through 2019 and then fell by 21% (57,281 fewer hospitalizations) between March and April 2020, particularly in hospitalizations for non-respiratory illnesses. From April onward there was a rise in the number of monthly hospitalizations per month. Hospitalizations per month, nationally and in each Census division, decreased for 20 of 25 MDCs between March and April 2020. There was also a decrease in hospitalizations per month for all age groups between March and April 2020 with the greatest decreases in hospitalizations observed for patients 50-64 and ≥65 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of hospitalization declined substantially during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting delayed routine, elective, and emergency care in the United States. These lapses in care for illnesses not related to COVID-19 may lead to increases in morbidity and mortality for other conditions. Thus, in the current stage of the pandemic, clinicians and public-health officials should work, not only to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but also to ensure that care for non-COVID-19 conditions is not delayed.


Subject(s)
Hospitalization/trends , Patient Acceptance of Health Care/psychology , Patient Acceptance of Health Care/statistics & numerical data , COVID-19/epidemiology , Delivery of Health Care/trends , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Hospitals , Humans , Pandemics/prevention & control , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity , United States/epidemiology
8.
J Med Econ ; 24(1): 1248-1260, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1541419

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections among immunocompromised (IC) individuals. METHODS: Individuals vaccinated with BNT162b2 were selected from the US HealthVerity database (10 December 2020 to 8  July 2021). COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections were examined in fully vaccinated (≥14 days after 2nd dose) IC individuals (IC cohort), 12 mutually exclusive IC condition groups, and a non-IC cohort. IC conditions were identified using an algorithm based on diagnosis codes and immunosuppressive (IS) medication usage. RESULTS: Of 1,277,747 individuals ≥16 years of age who received 2 BNT162b2 doses, 225,796 (17.7%) were identified as IC (median age: 58 years; 56.3% female). The most prevalent IC conditions were solid malignancy (32.0%), kidney disease (19.5%), and rheumatologic/inflammatory conditions (16.7%). Among the fully vaccinated IC and non-IC cohorts, a total of 978 breakthrough infections were observed during the study period; 124 (12.7%) resulted in hospitalization and 2 (0.2%) were inpatient deaths. IC individuals accounted for 38.2% (N = 374) of all breakthrough infections, 59.7% (N = 74) of all hospitalizations, and 100% (N = 2) of inpatient deaths. The proportion with breakthrough infections was 3 times higher in the IC cohort compared to the non-IC cohort (N = 374 [0.18%] vs. N = 604 [0.06%]; unadjusted incidence rates were 0.89 and 0.34 per 100 person-years, respectively. Organ transplant recipients had the highest incidence rate; those with >1 IC condition, antimetabolite usage, primary immunodeficiencies, and hematologic malignancies also had higher incidence rates compared to the overall IC cohort. Incidence rates in older (≥65 years old) IC individuals were generally higher versus younger IC individuals (<65). LIMITATIONS: This retrospective analysis relied on coding accuracy and had limited capture of COVID-19 vaccine receipt. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections are rare but are more common and severe in IC individuals. The findings from this large study support the FDA authorization and CDC recommendations to offer a 3rd vaccine dose to increase protection among IC individuals.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Aged , COVID-19 Vaccines , Female , Humans , Immunocompromised Host , Male , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2
9.
EClinicalMedicine ; 42: 101190, 2021 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1540602

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 variant Beta (B.1.351) was designated as a Variant of Concern (VoC) after becoming the dominant strain in South Africa and spreading internationally. BNT162b2 showed lower levels of neutralizing antibodies against Beta than against other strains raising concerns about effectiveness of vaccines against infections caused by Beta. We estimated BNT162b2 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against Beta infections in Israel, a country with high vaccine uptake. METHODS: The Ministry of Health (MoH) identified Beta cases through mandatory reporting of SARS-CoV-2 cases and whole genome sequencing (WGS) of specimens from vaccination-breakthrough infections, reinfections, arriving international travelers, and a selection of other infected persons. A cohort analysis was conducted of exposure events of contacts of primary Beta cases. WGS was conducted on available PCR-positive specimens collected from contacts. VE estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) against confirmed and probable Beta infections were determined by comparing infection risk between unvaccinated and fully-vaccinated (≥7 days after the second dose) contacts, and between unvaccinated and partially-vaccinated (<7 days after the second dose) contacts. FINDINGS: MoH identified 310 Beta cases through Jun 27, 2021. During the study period (Dec 11, 2020 - Mar 25, 2021), 164 non-institutionalized primary Beta cases, with 552 contacts aged ≥16 years, were identified. 343/552 (62%) contacts were interviewed and tested. 71/343 (21%) contacts were PCR-positive. WGS was performed on 7/71 (10%) PCR-positive specimens; all were Beta. Among SARS-CoV-2-infected contacts, 48/71 (68%) were symptomatic, 10/71 (14%) hospitalized, and 2/71 (3%) died. Fully-vaccinated VE against confirmed or probable Beta infections was 72% (95% CI -5 - 97%; p=0·04) and against symptomatic confirmed or probable Beta infections was 100% (95% CI 19 - 100%; p=0·01). There was no evidence of protection in partially-vaccinated contacts. INTERPRETATION: In a prospective observational study, two doses of BNT162b2 were effective against confirmed and probable Beta infections. Through the end of June 2021, introductions of Beta did not interrupt control of the pandemic in Israel. FUNDING: Israel Ministry of Health and Pfizer.

10.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 70(40): 1415-1419, 2021 Oct 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1456568

ABSTRACT

Data from observational studies demonstrate that variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, have evolved rapidly across many countries (1,2). The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant of concern is more transmissible than previously identified variants,* and as of September 2021, is the predominant variant in the United States.† Studies characterizing the distribution and severity of illness caused by SARS-CoV-2 variants, particularly the Delta variant, are limited in the United States (3), and are subject to limitations related to study setting, specimen collection, study population, or study period (4-7). This study used whole genome sequencing (WGS) data on SARS-CoV-2-positive specimens collected across Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC), a large integrated health care system, to describe the distribution and risk of hospitalization associated with SARS-CoV-2 variants during March 4-July 21, 2021, by patient vaccination status. Among 13,039 SARS-CoV-2-positive specimens identified from KPSC patients during this period, 6,798 (52%) were sequenced and included in this report. Of these, 5,994 (88%) were collected from unvaccinated persons, 648 (10%) from fully vaccinated persons, and 156 (2%) from partially vaccinated persons. Among all sequenced specimens, the weekly percentage of B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant infections increased from 20% to 67% during March 4-May 19, 2021. During April 15-July 21, 2021, the weekly percentage of Delta variant infections increased from 0% to 95%. During March 4-July 21, 2021, the weekly percentage of variants was similar among fully vaccinated and unvaccinated persons, but the Delta variant was more commonly identified among vaccinated persons then unvaccinated persons overall, relative to other variants. The Delta variant was more prevalent among younger persons, with the highest percentage (55%) identified among persons aged 18-44 years. Infections attributed to the Delta variant were also more commonly identified among non-Hispanic Black persons, relative to other variants. These findings reinforce the importance of continued monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 variants and implementing multiple COVID-19 prevention strategies, particularly during the current period in which Delta is the predominant variant circulating in the United States.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/virology , Delivery of Health Care, Integrated , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , COVID-19/epidemiology , California/epidemiology , Child , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Young Adult
11.
Clin Infect Dis ; 73(7): e1814-e1821, 2021 10 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1455271

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The United States has been heavily impacted by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Understanding microlevel patterns in US rates of COVID-19 can inform specific prevention strategies. METHODS: Using a negative binomial mixed-effects regression model, we evaluated the associations between a broad set of US county-level sociodemographic, economic, and health status-related characteristics and cumulative rates of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths between 22 January 2020 and 31 August 2020. RESULTS: Rates of COVID-19 cases and deaths were higher in US counties that were more urban or densely populated or that had more crowded housing, air pollution, women, persons aged 20-49 years, racial/ethnic minorities, residential housing segregation, income inequality, uninsured persons, diabetics, or mobility outside the home during the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this study provides results from the most comprehensive multivariable analysis of county-level predictors of rates of COVID-19 cases and deaths conducted to date. Our findings make clear that ensuring that COVID-19 preventive measures, including vaccines when available, reach vulnerable and minority communities and are distributed in a manner that meaningfully disrupts transmission (in addition to protecting those at highest risk of severe disease) will likely be critical to stem the pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Female , Health Status Disparities , Humans , Minority Groups , SARS-CoV-2 , United States/epidemiology
12.
Lancet ; 398(10309): 1407-1416, 2021 10 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1447246

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Vaccine effectiveness studies have not differentiated the effect of the delta (B.1.617.2) variant and potential waning immunity in observed reductions in effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections. We aimed to evaluate overall and variant-specific effectiveness of BNT162b2 (tozinameran, Pfizer-BioNTech) against SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-related hospital admissions by time since vaccination among members of a large US health-care system. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we analysed electronic health records of individuals (≥12 years) who were members of the health-care organisation Kaiser Permanente Southern California (CA, USA), to assess BNT162b2 vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-related hospital admissions for up to 6 months. Participants were required to have 1 year or more previous membership of the organisation. Outcomes comprised SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive tests and COVID-19-related hospital admissions. Effectiveness calculations were based on hazard ratios from adjusted Cox models. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04848584. FINDINGS: Between Dec 14, 2020, and Aug 8, 2021, of 4 920 549 individuals assessed for eligibility, we included 3 436 957 (median age 45 years [IQR 29-61]; 1 799 395 [52·4%] female and 1 637 394 [47·6%] male). For fully vaccinated individuals, effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections was 73% (95% CI 72-74) and against COVID-19-related hospital admissions was 90% (89-92). Effectiveness against infections declined from 88% (95% CI 86-89) during the first month after full vaccination to 47% (43-51) after 5 months. Among sequenced infections, vaccine effectiveness against infections of the delta variant was high during the first month after full vaccination (93% [95% CI 85-97]) but declined to 53% [39-65] after 4 months. Effectiveness against other (non-delta) variants the first month after full vaccination was also high at 97% (95% CI 95-99), but waned to 67% (45-80) at 4-5 months. Vaccine effectiveness against hospital admissions for infections with the delta variant for all ages was high overall (93% [95% CI 84-96]) up to 6 months. INTERPRETATION: Our results provide support for high effectiveness of BNT162b2 against hospital admissions up until around 6 months after being fully vaccinated, even in the face of widespread dissemination of the delta variant. Reduction in vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections over time is probably primarily due to waning immunity with time rather than the delta variant escaping vaccine protection. FUNDING: Pfizer.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines/immunology , COVID-19/immunology , RNA, Messenger/immunology , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Child , Delivery of Health Care, Integrated , Female , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Organizations , Retrospective Studies , Time Factors , United States , Vaccination/statistics & numerical data
13.
Lancet Infect Dis ; 22(3): 357-366, 2022 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1433958

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: On Dec 20, 2020, Israel initiated a nationwide COVID-19 vaccination campaign for people aged 16 years and older and exclusively used the Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine (tozinameran). We provide estimates of the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-related admissions to hospital (ie, hospitalisations) and deaths averted by the nationwide vaccination campaign. METHODS: In this retrospective surveillance study, we used national surveillance data routinely collected by the Israeli Ministry of Health from the first 112 days (Dec 20, 2020, up to our data cutoff of April 10, 2021) of Israel's vaccination campaign to estimate the averted burden of four outcomes: SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-related hospitalisations, severe or critical hospitalisations, and deaths. As part of the campaign, all individuals aged 16 years and older were eligible for inoculation with the BNT162b2 vaccine in a two-dose schedule 21 days apart. We estimated the direct effects of the immunisation programme for all susceptible individuals (ie, with no previous evidence of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection) who were at least partly vaccinated (at least one dose and at least 14 days of follow-up after the first dose). We estimated the number of SARS-CoV-2 infection-related outcomes averted on the basis of cumulative daily, age-specific rate differences, comparing rates among unvaccinated individuals with those of at least partly vaccinated individuals for each of the four outcomes and the (age-specific) size of the susceptible population and proportion that was at least partly vaccinated. FINDINGS: We estimated that Israel's vaccination campaign averted 158 665 (95% CI 144 640-172 690) SARS-CoV-2 infections, 24 597 (18 942-30 252) hospitalisations, 17 432 (12 770-22 094) severe or critical hospitalisations, and 5532 (3085-7982) deaths. 16 213 (65·9%) of 24 597 hospitalisations and 5035 (91·0%) of 5532 of deaths averted were estimated to be among those aged 65 years and older. We estimated 116 000 (73·1%) SARS-CoV-2 infections, 19 467 (79·1%) COVID-19-related hospitalisations, and 4351 (79%) deaths averted were accounted for by the fully vaccinated population. INTERPRETATION: Without the national vaccination campaign, Israel probably would have had triple the number of hospitalisations and deaths compared with what actually occurred during its largest wave of the pandemic to date, and the health-care system might have become overwhelmed. Indirect effects and long-term benefits of the programme, which could be substantial, were not included in these estimates and warrant future research. FUNDING: Israel Ministry of Health and Pfizer.


Subject(s)
/administration & dosage , COVID-19/prevention & control , Hospitalization/trends , Immunization Programs , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/mortality , Female , Humans , Israel , Male , Middle Aged , Population Surveillance , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification
14.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 18093, 2021 09 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1402128

ABSTRACT

Long-term care facilities (LTCFs) bear disproportionate burden of COVID-19 and are prioritized for vaccine deployment. LTCF outbreaks could continue occurring during vaccine rollout due to incomplete population coverage, and the effect of vaccines on viral transmission are currently unknown. Declining adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against within-facility transmission could therefore limit the effectiveness of vaccination. We built a stochastic model to simulate outbreaks in LTCF populations with differing vaccination coverage and NPI adherence to evaluate their interacting effects. Vaccination combined with strong NPI adherence produced the least morbidity and mortality. Healthcare worker vaccination improved outcomes in unvaccinated LTCF residents but was less impactful with declining NPI adherence. To prevent further illness and deaths, there is a continued need for NPIs in LTCFs during vaccine rollout.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines/therapeutic use , COVID-19/prevention & control , Long-Term Care , Models, Theoretical , Vaccination Coverage , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Health Facilities , Humans , Vaccination
16.
Lancet ; 397(10287): 1819-1829, 2021 05 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1219315

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Following the emergency use authorisation of the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA COVID-19 vaccine BNT162b2 (international non-proprietary name tozinameran) in Israel, the Ministry of Health (MoH) launched a campaign to immunise the 6·5 million residents of Israel aged 16 years and older. We estimated the real-world effectiveness of two doses of BNT162b2 against a range of SARS-CoV-2 outcomes and to evaluate the nationwide public-health impact following the widespread introduction of the vaccine. METHODS: We used national surveillance data from the first 4 months of the nationwide vaccination campaign to ascertain incident cases of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections and outcomes, as well as vaccine uptake in residents of Israel aged 16 years and older. Vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 outcomes (asymptomatic infection, symptomatic infection, and COVID-19-related hospitalisation, severe or critical hospitalisation, and death) was calculated on the basis of incidence rates in fully vaccinated individuals (defined as those for whom 7 days had passed since receiving the second dose of vaccine) compared with rates in unvaccinated individuals (who had not received any doses of the vaccine), with use of a negative binomial regression model adjusted for age group (16-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, and ≥85 years), sex, and calendar week. The proportion of spike gene target failures on PCR test among a nationwide convenience-sample of SARS-CoV-2-positive specimens was used to estimate the prevelance of the B.1.1.7 variant. FINDINGS: During the analysis period (Jan 24 to April 3, 2021), there were 232 268 SARS-CoV-2 infections, 7694 COVID-19 hospitalisations, 4481 severe or critical COVID-19 hospitalisations, and 1113 COVID-19 deaths in people aged 16 years or older. By April 3, 2021, 4 714 932 (72·1%) of 6 538 911 people aged 16 years and older were fully vaccinated with two doses of BNT162b2. Adjusted estimates of vaccine effectiveness at 7 days or longer after the second dose were 95·3% (95% CI 94·9-95·7; incidence rate 91·5 per 100 000 person-days in unvaccinated vs 3·1 per 100 000 person-days in fully vaccinated individuals) against SARS-CoV-2 infection, 91·5% (90·7-92·2; 40·9 vs 1·8 per 100 000 person-days) against asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, 97·0% (96·7-97·2; 32·5 vs 0·8 per 100 000 person-days) against symptomatic COVID-19, 97·2% (96·8-97·5; 4·6 vs 0·3 per 100 000 person-days) against COVID-19-related hospitalisation, 97·5% (97·1-97·8; 2·7 vs 0·2 per 100 000 person-days) against severe or critical COVID-19-related hospitalisation, and 96·7% (96·0-97·3; 0·6 vs 0·1 per 100 000 person-days) against COVID-19-related death. In all age groups, as vaccine coverage increased, the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 outcomes declined. 8006 of 8472 samples tested showed a spike gene target failure, giving an estimated prevalence of the B.1.1.7 variant of 94·5% among SARS-CoV-2 infections. INTERPRETATION: Two doses of BNT162b2 are highly effective across all age groups (≥16 years, including older adults aged ≥85 years) in preventing symptomatic and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-related hospitalisations, severe disease, and death, including those caused by the B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2 variant. There were marked and sustained declines in SARS-CoV-2 incidence corresponding to increasing vaccine coverage. These findings suggest that COVID-19 vaccination can help to control the pandemic. FUNDING: None.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines , COVID-19/prevention & control , Mass Vaccination , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Asymptomatic Infections/epidemiology , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/mortality , COVID-19/virology , Female , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Incidence , Israel/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Population Surveillance , RNA, Messenger , SARS-CoV-2 , Young Adult
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