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Comput Biol Chem ; 98: 107645, 2022 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1693749


In this paper, a compartmental mathematical model has been utilized to gain a better insight about the future dynamics of COVID-19. The total human population is divided into eight various compartments including susceptible, exposed, pre-asymptomatic, asymptomatic, symptomatic, quarantined, hospitalized and recovered or removed individuals. The problem was modeled in terms of highly nonlinear coupled system of classical order ordinary differential equations (ODEs) which was further generalized with the Atangana-Balaeanu (ABC) fractional derivative in Caputo sense with nonlocal kernel. Furthermore, some theoretical analyses have been done such as boundedness, positivity, existence and uniqueness of the considered. Disease-free and endemic equilibrium points were also assessed. The basic reproduction was calculated through next generation technique. Due to high risk of infection, in the present study, we have considered the reported cases from three continents namely Americas, Europe, and south-east Asia. The reported cases were considered between 1st May 2021 and 31st July 2021 and on the basis of this data, the spread of infection is predicted for the next 200 days. The graphical solution of the considered nonlinear fractional model was obtained via numerical scheme by implementing the MATLAB software. Based on the fitted values of parameters, the basic reproduction number ℜ0 for the case of America, Asia and Europe were calculated as ℜ0≈2.92819, ℜ0≈2.87970 and ℜ0≈2.23507 respectively. It is also observed that the spread of infection in America is comparatively high followed by Asia and Europe. Moreover, the effect of fractional parameter is shown on the dynamics of spread of infection among different classes. Additionally, the effect of quarantined and treatment of infected individuals is also shown graphically. From the present analysis it is observed that awareness of being quarantine and proper treatment can reduce the infection rate dramatically and a minimal variation in quarantine and treatment rates of infected individuals can lead us to decrease the rate of infection.

COVID-19 , Quarantine , Asia , Basic Reproduction Number , COVID-19/epidemiology , Hospitalization , Humans
PLoS One ; 15(5): e0232790, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-616862


The Middle East Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is an endemic virus in dromedaries. Annually, Saudi Arabia imports thousands of camels from the Horn of Africa, yet the epidemiology of MERS-CoV in these animals is largely unknown. Here, MERS-CoV prevalence was compared in imported African camels and their local counterparts. A total of 1399 paired sera and nasal swabs were collected from camels between 2016 and 2018. Imported animals from Sudan (n = 829) and Djibouti (n = 328) were sampled on incoming ships at Jeddah Islamic seaport before unloading, and local camels were sampled from Jeddah (n = 242). Samples were screened for neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) and MERS-CoV viral RNA. The overall seroprevalence was 92.7% and RNA detection rate was 17.2%. Imported camels had higher seroprevalence compared to resident herds (93.8% vs 87.6%, p <0.01) in contrast to RNA detection (13.3% vs 35.5%, p <0.0001). Seroprevalence significantly increased with age (p<0.0001) and viral RNA detection rate was ~2-folds higher in camels <2-year-old compared to older animals. RNA detection was higher in males verses females (24.3% vs 12.6%, p<0.0001) but seroprevalence was similar. Concurrent positivity for viral RNA and nAbs was found in >87% of the RNA positive animals, increased with age and was sex-dependent. Importantly, reduced viral RNA load was positively correlated with nAb titers. Our data confirm the widespread of MERS-CoV in imported and domestic camels in Saudi Arabia and highlight the need for continuous active surveillance and better prevention measures. Further studies are also warranted to understand camels correlates of protection for proper vaccine development.

Antibodies, Viral/blood , Camelus/virology , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus/isolation & purification , RNA, Viral/blood , Animals , Antibodies, Neutralizing/blood , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Disease Reservoirs/virology , Djibouti/epidemiology , Female , Male , Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus/genetics , Prevalence , Saudi Arabia/epidemiology , Seroepidemiologic Studies , Sudan/epidemiology
J Infect Public Health ; 13(5): 697-703, 2020 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-154833


BACKGROUND: The Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is a newly recognized zoonotic coronavirus. Current evidence confirms the role of dromedaries in primary human infections but does not explain the sporadic community cases. However, asymptomatic or subclinical cases could represent a possible source of infection in the community. METHODS: Archived human sera (7461) collected between 2011 and 2016 from healthy adult blood donors from 50 different nationalities in the western part of Saudi Arabia were obtained for MERS-CoV seroprevalence investigation. Samples were tested for MERS-CoV S1-specific antibodies (Abs) by ELISA and confirmed by testing for neutralizing Abs (nAbs) using both pseudotyped and live virus neutralization assays. RESULTS: Out of 7461 samples, 174 sera from individuals with 18 different nationalities were ELISA positive (2.3%, 95% CI 2.0-2.7). Presence of nAbs was confirmed in 17 samples (0.23%, 95% CI 0.1-0.4) of which one sample exhibited positivity in both neutralization assays. Confirmed seropositivity was identified in young (15-44 years) men and women from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Yemen, Pakistan, Palestine, Sudan, and India without significant preference. CONCLUSIONS: An increasing trend of MERS-CoV seroprevalence was observed in the general population in western Saudi Arabia, suggesting that asymptomatic or mild infections might exist and act as an unrecognized source of infection. Seropositivity of individuals from different nationalities underscores the potential MERS exportation outside of the Arabian Peninsula. Thus, enhanced and continuous surveillance is highly warranted.

Antibodies, Viral/blood , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus/isolation & purification , Adolescent , Adult , Animals , Blood Donors , Camelus/virology , Coronavirus Infections/blood , Coronavirus Infections/immunology , Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus/immunology , Saudi Arabia/epidemiology , Seroepidemiologic Studies , Young Adult