Your browser doesn't support javascript.
Show: 20 | 50 | 100
Results 1 - 3 de 3
Add filters

Year range
ssrn; 2021.
Preprint in English | PREPRINT-SSRN | ID: ppzbmed-10.2139.ssrn.3901784


Background: COVID-19 mortality rate has not been formally assessed in Nigeria. We therefore aimed to address this gap and identify associated mortality risk factors during the first and second waves in Nigeria.Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the national surveillance database between February 27, 2020, and April 3, 2021. The outcome was deaths amongst persons with a laboratory diagnosis of COVID-19. Incidence rates of COVID-19 death per 100,000 person-days were estimated. Adjusted negative binomial regression was used to identify factors associated with COVID-19 death, and presented as adjusted Incidence Rate Ratios (aIRR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: The first wave included 65,790 COVID-19 patients, of whom 994 (1∙51%) died; the second wave included 91,089 patients, of whom 513 (0∙56%) died. The incidence rate of deaths related to COVID-19 was higher in the first wave [54∙25 (95% CI: 50∙98-57∙73)] than in the second wave [19∙19 (17∙60-20∙93)]. Factors independently associated with increased risk of death in both waves were: age ≥45 years, male gender [first wave aIRR 1∙65 (1∙35-2∙02) and second wave 1∙52 (1∙11-2∙06)], being symptomatic [aIRR 3∙17 (2∙59-3∙89) and 3∙04 (2∙20-4∙21)], and being hospitalised [aIRR 4∙19 (3∙26-5∙39) and 7∙84 (4∙90-12∙54)].Interpretation: The incidence rate of COVID-19 death in Nigeria was higher in the first wave, suggesting improved public health response and care during the second wave. Regional mortality differences suggest that policy makers focus on regional equity in access to testing and quality of care to mitigate the impact of another COVID-19 wave in Nigeria.Funding: None to declare. Declaration of Interest: None to declare. Ethical Approval: Ethical approval for the study was given by the Nigeria National Health Research Ethics Committee (NHREC/01/01/2007-22/06/2020).

researchsquare; 2021.


The outbreak epidemic of the coronavirus (COVID-19) puts the whole world in an alert stage due to the highly spread speed. Recent researches prove that the immunity system of the human being has a crucial role in recovering. It is known that the immunity system becomes weaker for older persons. Hence, the coronavirus is highly risked for aged individuals mostly the ones that passed the 60s. The most recent approximations neglect the role of age of the individuals in the spread and degree of the fatality of the COVID-19 virus. The recent statistics show a very high death number due to COVID-19 for aged individuals. Here, we propose an age-structured model for analyzing the peak outbreak epidemic and give an approximative time of this peak next to the number of death cases due to the COVID-19 in Italy, Spain, France, United Kingdom (UK), and Algeria using early data. Further, we show the effect of the governmental restrictions of social movements on this peak and also we provide an approximative time of the end of this infection with (resp. without) restriction.

COVID-19 , Death