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1.
Malays J Med Sci ; 28(5): 1-9, 2021 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1513329

ABSTRACT

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes COVID-19 disease, which has become pandemic since December 2019. In the recent months, among five countries in the Southeast Asia, Malaysia has the highest per-capita daily new cases and daily new deaths. A mathematical modelling approach using a Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) technique was used to generate data-driven 30-days ahead forecasts for the number of daily cases in the states and federal territories in Malaysia at four consecutive time points between 27 July 2021 and 26 August 2021. Each forecast was produced using SSA prediction model of the current major trend at each time point. The objective is to understand the transition dynamics of COVID-19 in each state by analysing the direction of change of the major trends during the period of study. The states and federal territories in Malaysia were grouped in four categories based on the nature of the transition. Overall, it was found that the COVID-19 spread has progressed unevenly across states and federal territories. Major regions like Selangor, Kuala Lumpur, Putrajaya and Negeri Sembilan were in Group 3 (fast decrease in infectivity) and Labuan was in Group 4 (possible eradication of infectivity). Other states e.g. Pulau Pinang, Sabah, Sarawak, Kelantan and Johor were categorised in Group 1 (very high infectivity levels) with Perak, Kedah, Pahang, Terengganu and Melaka were classified in Group 2 (high infectivity levels). It is also cautioned that SSA provides a promising avenue for forecasting the transition dynamics of COVID-19; however, the reliability of this technique depends on the availability of good quality data.

2.
Comput Biol Med ; 133: 104372, 2021 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1171429

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 is a major health threat across the globe, which causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), and it is highly contagious with significant mortality. In this study, we conduct a scenario analysis for COVID-19 in Malaysia using a simple universality class of the SIR system and extensions thereof (i.e., the inclusion of temporary immunity through the reinfection problems and limited medical resources scenarios leads to the SIRS-type model). This system has been employed in order to provide further insights on the long-term outcomes of COVID-19 pandemic. As a case study, the COVID-19 transmission dynamics are investigated using daily confirmed cases in Malaysia, where some of the epidemiological parameters of this system are estimated based on the fitting of the model to real COVID-19 data released by the Ministry of Health Malaysia (MOH). We observe that this model is able to mimic the trend of infection trajectories of COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia and it is possible for transmission dynamics to be influenced by the reinfection force and limited medical resources problems. A rebound effect in transmission could occur after several years and this situation depends on the intensity of reinfection force. Our analysis also depicts the existence of a critical value in reinfection threshold beyond which the infection dynamics persist and the COVID-19 outbreaks are rather hard to eradicate. Therefore, understanding the interplay between distinct epidemiological factors using mathematical modelling approaches could help to support authorities in making informed decisions so as to control the spread of this pandemic effectively.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Humans , Malaysia/epidemiology , Reinfection , SARS-CoV-2
3.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 18(6)2021 03 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1154379

ABSTRACT

To curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19) in Malaysia, the government imposed a nationwide movement control order (MCO) from 18 March 2020 to 3 May 2020. It was enforced in four phases (i.e., MCO 1, MCO 2, MCO 3 and MCO 4). In this paper, we propose an initiative to assess the impact of MCO by using time-varying reproduction number (Rt). We used data from the Johns Hopkins University Centre for Systems Science and Engineering Coronavirus repository. Day 1 was taken from the first assumed local transmission of COVID-19. We estimated Rt by using the EpiEstim package and plotted the epidemic curve and Rt. Then, we extracted the mean Rt at day 1, day 5 and day 10 for all MCO phases and compared the differences. The Rt values peaked around day 43, which was shortly before the start of MCO 1. The means for Rt at day 1, day 5, and day 10 for all MCOs ranged between 0.665 and 1.147. The average Rt gradually decreased in MCO 1 and MCO 2. Although spikes in the number of confirmed cases were observed when restrictions were gradually relaxed in the later MCO phases, the situation remained under control with Rt values being stabilised to below unity level (Rt value less than one).


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Coronavirus Infections , Basic Reproduction Number , Humans , Malaysia/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2
4.
Results Phys ; 20: 103703, 2021 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-989164

ABSTRACT

The dynamic of covid-19 epidemic model with a convex incidence rate is studied in this article. First, we formulate the model without control and study all the basic properties and results including local and global stability. We show the global stability of disease free equilibrium using the method of Lyapunov function theory while for disease endemic, we use the method of geometrical approach. Furthermore, we develop a model with suitable optimal control strategies. Our aim is to minimize the infection in the host population. In order to do this, we use two control variables. Moreover, sensitivity analysis complemented by simulations are performed to determine how changes in parameters affect the dynamical behavior of the system. Taking into account the central manifold theory the bifurcation analysis is also incorporated. The numerical simulations are performed in order to show the feasibility of the control strategy and effectiveness of the theoretical results.

5.
Chaos Solitons Fractals ; 138: 109943, 2020 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-920180

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 is an emerging and rapidly evolving pandemic around the world, which causes severe acute respiratory syndrome and results in substantial morbidity and mortality. To examine the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, we investigate the spread of this pandemic using Malaysia as a case study and scrutinise its interactions with some exogenous factors such as limited medical resources and false detection problems. To do this, we employ a simple epidemiological model and analyse this system using modelling and dynamical systems techniques. We discover some contrasting findings with respect to the observations of basic reproduction number: while it is observed that R 0 seems to provide a good description of transmission dynamics in simple outbreak scenarios, this quantity might mislead the assessment on the severity of pandemic when certain complexities such as limited medical resources and false detection problems are incorporated into the model. In particular, we observe the possibility of a COVID-19 outbreak through bistable behaviour, even when the basic reproduction number is less than unity. Based on these findings, we caution policy makers not to make their decisions solely based on the guidance of the basic reproduction number only, which clearly could cause trouble.

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