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1.
EuropePMC; 2021.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-311226

ABSTRACT

We describe the population-based SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infected, removed) model developed by the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group (IEMAG), which advises the Irish government on COVID-19 responses. The model assumes a time-varying effective contact rate (equivalently, a time-varying reproduction number) to model the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions. A crucial technical challenge in applying such models is their accurate calibration to observed data, e.g., to the daily number of confirmed new cases, as the past history of the disease strongly affects predictions of future scenarios. We demonstrate an approach based on inversion of the SEIR equations in conjunction with statistical modelling and spline-fitting of the data, to produce a robust methodology for calibration of a wide class of models of this type.

2.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci ; 380(2214): 20210120, 2022 Jan 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1621739

ABSTRACT

We describe the population-based susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model developed by the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group (IEMAG), which advises the Irish government on COVID-19 responses. The model assumes a time-varying effective contact rate (equivalently, a time-varying reproduction number) to model the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions. A crucial technical challenge in applying such models is their accurate calibration to observed data, e.g. to the daily number of confirmed new cases, as the history of the disease strongly affects predictions of future scenarios. We demonstrate an approach based on inversion of the SEIR equations in conjunction with statistical modelling and spline-fitting of the data to produce a robust methodology for calibration of a wide class of models of this type. This article is part of the theme issue 'Data science approaches to infectious disease surveillance'.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Disease Susceptibility , Humans , Models, Statistical , SARS-CoV-2
3.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 18(21)2021 Oct 30.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1488595

ABSTRACT

The illegal trade of wildlife in SE Asia has been identified as the likely cause of the COVID-19 pandemic. We reviewed 198 papers on the current COVID pandemic in Cambodia, diseases such as avian influenza and Nipah virus, most likely to develop into a new pandemic in Cambodia, and common features of disease that require mitigation. Artisanal goldmining uses pure mercury in the areas where wildlife is smuggled to China. Moreover, 30-40% of Cambodians are zinc deficient. High levels of arsenic in irrigation water (>1000 µg/L) are associated with very low levels of zinc in rice (5 µg/g) and rice is the primary staple food for the region. Brown rice from nine of 15 paddy fields in the arsenic zone of Cambodia had double the new guidelines of 100 µg/kg inorganic arsenic for children's food in the EU and USA. The combination of deficiencies of essential micronutrients like zinc and pervasive presence of arsenic and mercury has the potential to compromise the immunity of many Cambodians. Innovative solutions are suggested to improve micronutrient nutrition. Toxins that suppress the immune system must be better managed to reduce the virulence of pathogens. Cambodia was not likely the source of the COVID-19 but does have problems that could result in a new pandemic.


Subject(s)
Arsenic , COVID-19 , Oryza , Animals , Arsenic/analysis , Cambodia/epidemiology , Child , Humans , Micronutrients , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2
4.
Ir J Med Sci ; 191(2): 831-837, 2022 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1137175

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The emergence of the novel coronavirus Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the coronavirus disease COVID-19 has impacted enormously on non-COVID-19-related hospital care. Curtailment of intensive care unit (ICU) access threatens complex surgery, particularly impacting on outcomes for time-sensitive cancer surgery. Oesophageal cancer surgery is a good example. This study explored the impact of the pandemic on process and short-term surgical outcomes, comparing the first wave of the pandemic from April to June in 2020 with the same period in 2019. METHODS: Data from all four Irish oesophageal cancer centres were reviewed. All patients undergoing resection for oesophageal malignancy from 1 April to 30 June inclusive in 2020 and 2019 were included. Patient, disease, and peri-operative outcomes (including COVID-19 infection) were compared. RESULTS: In 2020, 45 patients underwent oesophagectomy, and 53 in the equivalent period in 2019. There were no differences in patient demographics, co-morbidities, or use of neoadjuvant therapy. The median time to surgery from neoadjuvant therapy was 8 weeks in both 2020 and 2019. There were no significant differences in operative interventions between the two time periods. There was no difference in operative morbidity in 2020 and 2019 (28% vs 40%, p = 0.28). There was no in-hospital mortality in either period. No patient contracted COVID-19 in the perioperative period. CONCLUSIONS: Continuing surgical resection for oesophageal cancer was feasible and safe during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ireland. The national response to this threat was therefore successful by these criteria in the curative management of oesophageal cancer.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Esophageal Neoplasms , Esophageal Neoplasms/epidemiology , Esophageal Neoplasms/surgery , Humans , Ireland/epidemiology , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2
5.
Pediatr Pulmonol ; 55(10): 2592-2595, 2020 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-697159

ABSTRACT

Pediatric pulmonologists have been involved in the care of adult COVID-19 patients in a variety of ways, particularly in areas with a high concentration of cases. This invited commentary is a series of questions to Dr Mikhail Kazachkov, a pediatric pulmonologist at New York University, about his experiences to date in a major COVID-19 "hotspot" and his thoughts about how other pediatric pulmonologists facing this situation can best support their colleagues.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/therapy , Pandemics , Pediatrics , Professional Role , Pulmonologists , SARS-CoV-2 , Adult , COVID-19/epidemiology , Child , Emotions , Hospitals, Pediatric , Humans , Infection Control , Patient Care Team , Pulmonary Medicine , Pulmonologists/psychology
6.
Pediatr Pulmonol ; 55(8): 1859-1867, 2020 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-597152

ABSTRACT

Unprecedented opportunities and daunting difficulties are anticipated in the future of pediatric pulmonary medicine. To address these issues and optimize pediatric pulmonary training, a group of faculty from various institutions met in 2019 and proposed specific, long-term solutions to the emerging problems in the field. Input on these ideas was then solicited more broadly from faculty with relevant expertise and from recent trainees. This proposal is a synthesis of these ideas. Pediatric pulmonology was among the first pediatric specialties to be grounded deliberately in science, requiring its fellows to demonstrate expertise in scientific inquiry (1). In the future, we will need more training in science, not less. Specifically, the scope of scientific inquiry will need to be broader. The proposal outlined below is designed to help optimize the practices of current providers and to prepare the next generation to be leaders in pediatric care in the future. We are optimistic that this can be accomplished. Our broad objectives are (a) to meet the pediatric subspecialty workforce demand by increasing interest and participation in pediatric pulmonary training; (b) to modernize training to ensure that future pediatric pulmonologists will be prepared clinically and scientifically for the future of the field; (c) to train pediatric pulmonologists who will add value in the future of pediatric healthcare, complemented by advanced practice providers and artificial intelligence systems that are well-informed to optimize quality healthcare delivery; and (d) to decrease the cost and improve the quality of care provided to children with respiratory diseases.


Subject(s)
Pediatrics , Pulmonary Medicine , Artificial Intelligence , Child , Delivery of Health Care , Health Workforce , Humans , Pediatrics/education , Pulmonary Medicine/education
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