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J Allergy Clin Immunol Pract ; 8(8): 2575-2581.e2, 2020 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-611996

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The early identification of patients at risk of clinical deterioration is of interest considering the timeline of COVID-19 after the onset of symptoms. OBJECTIVE: The aim of our study was to evaluate the usefulness of testing serum IL-6 and other serological and clinical biomarkers, to predict a short-term negative clinical course of patients with noncritical COVID-19. METHODS: A total of 208 patients with noncritical COVID-19 pneumonia at admission were consecutively enrolled. Clinical and laboratory findings obtained on admission were analyzed by using survival analysis and stepwise logistic regression for variable selection. Three-day worsening as outcome in a logistic model to generate a prognostic score was used. RESULTS: Clinical worsening occurred in 63 patients (16 = died; 39 = transferred to intensive care unit; 8 worsening of respiratory failure). Forty-five of them worsened within 3 days after admission. The risk of clinical worsening was progressively enhanced along with increasing quartiles of IL-6 levels. Multivariate analysis showed that IL-6 (P = .005), C-reactive protein (CRP) (P = .003), and SaO2/FiO2 (P = .014) were the best predictors for clinical deterioration in the first 3 days after admission. The combined score yielded an area under the curve = 0.88 (95% confidence interval: 0.83-0.93). A nomogram predicting the probability of 3-day worsening was generated. The score also showed good performance for 7-day and 14- or 21-day worsening and in predicting death occurring during all the follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Combining IL-6, CRP, and SaO2/FiO2 in a score may help clinicians to identify on admission those patients with COVID-19 who are at high risk for a further 3-day clinical deterioration.


Subject(s)
Clinical Deterioration , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/physiopathology , Interleukin-6/blood , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/physiopathology , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Betacoronavirus , Biomarkers , C-Reactive Protein/analysis , COVID-19 , Comorbidity , Coronavirus Infections/blood , Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Female , Humans , Kaplan-Meier Estimate , Length of Stay , Male , Middle Aged , Oxygen/blood , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/blood , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , ROC Curve , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2 , Time Factors , Young Adult
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