Counterfactuals of effects of vaccination and public health measures on COVID-19 cases in Canada: what could have happened?

This study illustrates what may have happened, in terms of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections, hospitalizations and deaths in Canada, had public health measures not been used to control the COVID-19 epidemic, and had restrictions been lifted with low levels of vaccination, or no vaccination, of the Canadian population. The timeline of the epidemic in Canada, and the public health interventions used to control the epidemic, are reviewed. Comparisons against outcomes in other countries and counterfactual modelling illustrate the relative success of control of the epidemic in Canada. Together, these observations show that without the use of restrictive measures and without high levels of vaccination, Canada could have experienced substantially higher numbers of infections and hospitalizations and almost a million deaths.

The New Normal for Architecture Design Studio: Conceptualizing a Design Implementation Model

Architectural design studios are the crux and core of architecture education. The closure of face-to-face Design studios due to the COVID-19 pandemic during the years 2020 and 2021 has indeed posed a set of challenges to architectural education. Through a rigorous set of research methods, the paper investigates the various possibilities and perspectives of making the challenges into opportunities to rethink, innovate and move on. The paper aims to develop a model for implementing studio-based learning innovative, appropriate, and conducive to covid and post-covid environments. The first objective dealt with in this paper is to find the consensus on the directives to solve and respond to the contemporary challenges of the pandemic for the SBL. The second is to arrive at a toolkit or a model that strategically summarizes the processes for the directives. The School of Architecture, Building, and Design from Taylor’s University Malaysia has been the case study of the investigation. The research methods involved conducting focus group meetings with various stakeholders, such as the Students, Tutors, Studio Coordinators, Program Directors, and the Head of the School. The findings firstly offered a set of shifts in paradigms of SBL and secondly, a toolkit that we named as Design Implementation Model (DIM) for a hybrid studio pedagogy that we envisage and envision to be the future of architectural education. © 2022, University of Malaya. All rights reserved.

POST-MRNA VACCINE FLARES in AUTOIMMUNE INFLAMMATORY RHEUMATIC DISEASES: INTERIM RESULTS from the CORONAVIRUS NATIONAL VACCINE REGISTRY for IMMUNE DISEASES SINGAPORE (CONVIN-SING)

Background: Published data suggest no increased rate of fare of autoimmune infammatory rheumatic diseases (AIIRD) after COVID-19 mRNA vaccination;however, the studies are limited by small sample size, short follow up or at risk of selection bias (voluntary physician reports or patient surveys). Objectives: To study fares of AIIRD within three months of the frst dose of an anti-SARS-COV2 mRNA vaccine. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of consecutive AIIRD patients ≥ 12 years old, across six public hospitals in Singapore who received at least one dose of an mRNA (Pfzer/BioNTech or Moderna) vaccine. Data were censored at the frst post-vaccine clinic visit when the patient had fared or if ≥ three months had elapsed since the frst dose of the vaccine, whichever came frst. Predictors of fare were determined by Cox proportional hazards analysis and time to fare was examined using a Nelson Aalen cumulative hazard estimate (Figure 1). Results: 2339 patients (74% Chinese, 72% female) of median (IQR) age 64 (53, 71) years were included in the interim analysis (Table 1). 2112 (90%) had the Pfzer/BioNTech vaccine and 195 (8%) had Moderna, with a median (IQR) interval of 21 (21, 23) days between the two doses. The most common AIIRD diagnoses were Rheumatoid arthritis (1063, 45%), Psoriatic arthritis (296, 12.6%) and Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) (288, 12.3%). 186 (8%) were treated with biologics/targeted disease modifying agents. 2125 (91%) patients were in low disease activity or remission. Treatment was interrupted for vaccination in only 18 (0.8%) patients. Seven (0.3%) patients had previous COVID-19 infection. 452 (19%) fares were recorded during 9798.8 patient-months [4.6/100 patient-months, median (IQR) follow up duration 4.2 (3.3, 5.3) months], of which 272 (11.6%) patients fared within the 3-month period of interest and 180 (7.7%) fared outside of the 3-month period (Table 1). Median (IQR) time-to-fare was 40.5 (18, 56.6) days. 60 (22.1%) were mild and self-limiting, 170 (62.5%) were mild-moderate and 42 (15.4%) were severe. 190 (69.8%) of those who fared required escalation of treatment and 15 (5.5%) required hospital admission. 239 (10.2%) had improved disease activity after the vaccine. On multivariate Cox regression analysis, patients in the oldest age tertile [median (IQR) 74 (71, 79) years] were less likely to fare [HR 0.80 (95% CI 0.63, 1.00), p = 0.05] Patients with infammatory arthritis (compared with connective tissue disease, vasculitis and others) and patients with baseline active disease were more likely to fare [HR 1.72 (95% CI 1.35, 2.20), p < 0.001 and 1.82 (95% CI 1.39, 2.39), p < 0.001 respectively] Conclusion: There was a moderately high rate of AIIRD fares after mRNA vaccination;however, there was no clustering of fares in the immediate post-vaccine period to suggest causality. Older patients were less likely to fare, while those with infammatory arthritis and active disease at baseline were more likely to fare.

Machine Learning Identification of Self-reported COVID-19 Symptoms from Tweets in Canada

Surveillance of open-source media, such as social media, has become an essential complement to traditional surveillance data for quickly detecting changes in the occurrence of diseases in time and space. We present our method for classifying Tweets into narratives about COVID-19 symptoms to produce a dataset for downstream surveillance applications. A dataset of 10,405 tweets has been manually classified as relevant or not to self-reported symptoms of COVID-19. Five machine learning classification algorithms, with different tokenization methods, were trained on the dataset and tested. The Support vector machine (SVM) algorithm, with a term frequency-inverse document frequency (TF-IDF) 3-4 n-grams on character as the tokenization method, was the classification algorithm with the highest F1-score of 0.70. However, the training dataset showed an imbalanced classification problem. To reduce the bias of the imbalance classes, the crowdsourcing website Mechanical Turk was used to add 133 relevant tweets. This addition improved the F1-score from 0.70 to 0.77. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Posttraumatic Stress, Anxiety, and Depression in COVID-19 Survivors.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to examine the rates of anxiety, depression, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after hospital discharge among COVID-19 survivors and to determine the associated risk factors. METHODS: Adult COVID-19 survivors discharged from hospitals between March 2020 and March 2021 were asked to complete a questionnaire at 4 weeks after discharge. The Chinese version of the 22-item Impact of Event Scale - Revised (IES-R) was used to measure symptoms of PTSD. The 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) was used to assess symptoms of major depressive disorder. The 7-item Generalised Anxiety Disorder Scale (GAD-7) was used to measure symptoms of generalised anxiety disorder. The rates of anxiety, depression, and PTSD among discharged patients were determined, as were associations between psychosocial factors and outcome measures and predictors for moderate-tosevere symptoms of anxiety, depression, and PTSD. RESULTS: 96 men and 103 women aged 18 to 81 years returned the completed questionnaire. 12.1% to 20.1% of them reported symptoms of PTSD, anxiety, or depression. Higher symptom severity was associated with higher perceived life threat, lower emotional support, lower disease severity upon admission, and longer hospital stay. Women had more PTSD symptoms than men, particularly when knowing someone under quarantine. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 survivors with higher perceived life threat, lower emotional support, lower disease severity upon admission, and longer hospital stay were associated with higher severity of symptoms of PTSD, anxiety, and depression. Timely intervention should provide to at-risk survivors.

The impact of sars-cov2 infection in children with liver disease: An international observational registry study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) on children with underlying liver disease (LD) is unknown. We aim to report outcomes for pediatric patients with LD from the joint North American Society for Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition (NASPGHAN) and the Society of Pediatric Liver Transplantation (SPLIT) SARS-CoV2 registry Methods: We collected data from patients younger than 21 years with LD from 6 countries and laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV2 infection reported to a multicenter observational cohort study between April 2020 and May 2021. Results: Seventy-three (59% male,55% white, 23% Hispanic) children with a median age of 9 years were reported in the registry. The most common causes of LD were biliary atresia (22%) followed by autoimmune hepatitis (16%) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (16%). Five patients (7%) presented in acute liver failure (ALF);all recovered without the need for a liver transplant. Four patients presented with multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (2 with ALF, 2 without ALF) with one death reported. The most common presenting symptoms were constitutional (49%) including fever and fatigue followed by respiratory symptoms (47%). Twenty two percent (n=16) of patients were asymptomatic at the time of diagnosis. Twentythree percent had radiologic evidence of pneumonia and 14% reported co-infections. Median peak INR was 1.4, peak total bilirubin 2.9 (mg/dl), peak ALT 129 (IU/l) and nadir albumin 3.1 (g/dl). Sixty-four percent of patients required hospitalization;40% (n=19) in the ICU and 60% (n=28) non-ICU for a median of 6 and 7 days, respectively. Twenty-two percent of patients required respiratory support including mechanical ventilation (n=6), high-frequency oscillatory ventilation (n=3), highflow nasal cannula (n=5) and regular nasal cannula (n=2) for a median of 6 days. Nine patients required vasoactive agents, 3 required renal replacement therapy and 2 patients required ECMO. Sixty-six percent did not receive any SARSCoV2 directed treatment. Twelve (16%) patients developed new liver-related complications including ascites (n=9), GI bleeding (n=2), encephalopathy (n=3), progression of endstage liver disease (n=2) and infection (n=1). There were a total of 3 (4.1%) deaths (20yr, 17yr and 6month of age at time of death) reported secondary to acute on chronic liver failure with respiratory failure and multiorgan failure Conclusion: Contrary to healthy children, almost 2/3rd pediatric patients with LD testing positive for SARS-CoV2 required hospitalization with death reported in 4% of cases. Acute liver failure is rare with SARS-CoV2 infection with recovery reported without the need for liver transplantation. Close monitoring is needed due to an increased risk of underlying liver disease complications and death, particularly in children with end-stage liver disease awaiting transplantation.

P02.14 Radiotherapy-Associated CT Imaging as a Potential Screening Tool for COVID-19

Introduction: COVID-19 is associated with characteristic lung CT findings, such as rounded ground-glass opacities in certain distributions. Diagnosing COVID-19 is a particular concern in oncology care, since cancer patients are a vulnerable population who receive treatment in close proximity to other patients and staff. Radiotherapy patients routinely undergo CT simulation before starting therapy. We hypothesized that simulation CT scans obtained on patients treated during the pandemic would reveal characteristic COVID-19 findings and represent a tool to identify patients with asymptomatic COVID-19. Methods: We reviewed patients undergoing CT simulation during a six-week period (March 1 to April 13, 2020) at a major tertiary cancer center located in an early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Most scans were done under free-breathing conditions, with slice thickness ≤3mm and without IV contrast. All scans were reviewed according to the RSNA classification of COVID-19 lung CT findings (“typical,” “indeterminate,” “atypical,” or “negative” for COVID-19 pneumonia) by radiation oncologists who had been trained by a diagnostic radiologist. All “typical” or “indeterminate” scans were considered suspicious and re-reviewed by a board-certified diagnostic radiologist. Radiographic classifications were then compared with available COVID-19 PCR test results. A one-tailed T test was used to compare the rate of positive COVID-19 tests in the radiographically suspicious vs. non-suspicious groups. Results: 414 CT simulation scans that included the lungs were performed on 400 patients during the study period. 119 patients (corresponding to 130 scans, or 31.4%) had COVID-19 PCR test results available. The most common cancer types were breast (37%), lung/thoracic (23%), and spine (21%). On initial review by radiation oncologists, 17 scans (4.1%), were deemed “typical” for COVID-19 pneumonia, 54 (13%) were “indeterminate,” 85 (21%) were “atypical,” and 258 (62.3%) were “negative.” Of the 71 suspicious (typical or indeterminate) scans, 23 had corresponding COVID-19 test results, of which 3 (15.7%) were positive for infection. 107 non-suspicious (atypical or negative) scans had corresponding COVID-19 test results, and 9 were positive (8.4%). This difference in COVID-19 positivity between radiographically suspicious and non-suspicious groups was not statistically significant (p=0.23). Upon re-review by a diagnostic radiologist, 25 (35%) of the suspicious scans were still deemed suspicious while the majority (n=46, or 65%) were deemed “atypical.” Conclusion: Simulation CT scans obtained for radiation treatment planning can be reviewed for signs of COVID-19 pneumonia. About 17% of patients simulated in our metropolitan pandemic epicenter demonstrated findings suspicious for COVID-19 when reviewed by radiation oncologists according to consensus criteria. However, few of these patients proved to have COVID-19 infections based on PCR testing, and there was no significant correlation between radiographically suspicious simulation CT scans and COVID-19 positivity in this study. Analysis was limited by the lack of available COVID-19 test results in many patients. The concordance between radiographic classification by radiation oncologists vs. diagnostic radiologists was also low. These results suggest that routine review of radiotherapy simulation CT scans is of limited value in identifying asymptomatic COVID-19 infection. Keywords: COVID-19, radiotherapy, CT

Short- and potential long-term adverse health outcomes of COVID-19: a rapid review.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in millions of patients infected worldwide and indirectly affecting even more individuals through disruption of daily living. Long-term adverse outcomes have been reported with similar diseases from other coronaviruses, namely Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). Emerging evidence suggests that COVID-19 adversely affects different systems in the human body. This review summarizes the current evidence on the short-term adverse health outcomes and assesses the risk of potential long-term adverse outcomes of COVID-19. Major adverse outcomes were found to affect different body systems: immune system (including but not limited to Guillain-Barré syndrome and paediatric inflammatory multisystem syndrome), respiratory system (lung fibrosis and pulmonary thromboembolism), cardiovascular system (cardiomyopathy and coagulopathy), neurological system (sensory dysfunction and stroke), as well as cutaneous and gastrointestinal manifestations, impaired hepatic and renal function. Mental health in patients with COVID-19 was also found to be adversely affected. The burden of caring for COVID-19 survivors is likely to be huge. Therefore, it is important for policy makers to develop comprehensive strategies in providing resources and capacity in the healthcare system. Future epidemiological studies are needed to further investigate the long-term impact on COVID-19 survivors.

Modelling scenarios of the epidemic of COVID-19 in Canada

Background: Severe acute respiratory syndrome virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), likely a bat-origin coronavirus, spilled over from wildlife to humans in China in late 2019, manifesting as a respiratory disease. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread initially within China and then globally, resulting in a pandemic.