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BMJ Open ; 11(12): e053352, 2021 12 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1571203


OBJECTIVE: Susceptibility of patients with cancer to COVID-19 pneumonitis has been variable. We aim to quantify the risk of hospitalisation in patients with active cancer and use a machine learning algorithm (MLA) and traditional statistics to predict clinical outcomes and mortality. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: A single UK district general hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Data on total hospital admissions between March 2018 and June 2020, all active cancer diagnoses between March 2019 and June 2020 and clinical parameters of COVID-19-positive admissions between March 2020 and June 2020 were collected. 526 COVID-19 admissions without an active cancer diagnosis were compared with 87 COVID-19 admissions with an active cancer diagnosis. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: 30-day and 90-day post-COVID-19 survival. RESULTS: In total, 613 patients were enrolled with male to female ratio of 1:6 and median age of 77 years. The estimated infection rate of COVID-19 was 87 of 22 729 (0.4%) in the patients with cancer and 526 of 404 379 (0.1%) in the population without cancer (OR of being hospitalised with COVID-19 if having cancer is 2.942671 (95% CI: 2.344522 to 3.693425); p<0.001). Survival was reduced in patients with cancer with COVID-19 at 90 days. R-Studio software determined the association between cancer status, COVID-19 and 90-day survival against variables using MLA. Multivariate analysis showed increases in age (OR 1.039 (95% CI: 1.020 to 1.057), p<0.001), urea (OR 1.005 (95% CI: 1.002 to 1.007), p<0.001) and C reactive protein (CRP) (OR 1.065 (95% CI: 1.016 to 1.116), p<0.008) are associated with greater 30-day and 90-day mortality. The MLA model examined the contribution of predictive variables for 90-day survival (area under the curve: 0.749); with transplant patients, age, male gender and diabetes mellitus being predictors of greater mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Active cancer diagnosis has a threefold increase in risk of hospitalisation with COVID-19. Increased age, urea and CRP predict mortality in patients with cancer. MLA complements traditional statistical analysis in identifying prognostic variables for outcomes of COVID-19 infection in patients with cancer. This study provides proof of concept for MLA in risk prediction for COVID-19 in patients with cancer and should inform a redesign of cancer services to ensure safe delivery of cancer care.

COVID-19 , Neoplasms , Aged , Female , Hospitalization , Humans , Male , Neoplasms/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2 , United Kingdom/epidemiology
BMJ Open Respir Res ; 7(1)2020 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-740290


BACKGROUND: Studies suggest that certain black and Asian minority ethnic groups experience poorer outcomes from COVID-19, but these studies have not provided insight into potential reasons for this. We hypothesised that outcomes would be poorer for those of South Asian ethnicity hospitalised from a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, once confounding factors, health-seeking behaviours and community demographics were considered, and that this might reflect a more aggressive disease course in these patients. METHODS: Patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection requiring admission to University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust (UHB) in Birmingham, UK between 10 March 2020 and 17 April 2020 were included. Standardised admission ratio (SAR) and standardised mortality ratio (SMR) were calculated using observed COVID-19 admissions/deaths and 2011 census data. Adjusted HR for mortality was estimated using Cox proportional hazard model adjusting and propensity score matching. RESULTS: All patients admitted to UHB with COVID-19 during the study period were included (2217 in total). 58% were male, 69.5% were white and the majority (80.2%) had comorbidities. 18.5% were of South Asian ethnicity, and these patients were more likely to be younger and have no comorbidities, but twice the prevalence of diabetes than white patients. SAR and SMR suggested more admissions and deaths in South Asian patients than would be predicted and they were more likely to present with severe disease despite no delay in presentation since symptom onset. South Asian ethnicity was associated with an increased risk of death, both by Cox regression (HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.2 to 1.8), after adjusting for age, sex, deprivation and comorbidities, and by propensity score matching, matching for the same factors but categorising ethnicity into South Asian or not (HR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0 to 1.6). CONCLUSIONS: Those of South Asian ethnicity appear at risk of worse COVID-19 outcomes. Further studies need to establish the underlying mechanistic pathways.

/statistics & numerical data , Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification , Coronavirus Infections , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Mortality/ethnology , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral , COVID-19 , Cohort Studies , Comorbidity , Coronavirus Infections/ethnology , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Outcome Assessment, Health Care , Pneumonia, Viral/ethnology , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Proportional Hazards Models , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2 , Severity of Illness Index , United Kingdom/epidemiology