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EuropePMC; 2021.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-323601


Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has been considered a great threat to global public health. We aimed to clarify the risk factors associated with the development of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and progression from ARDS to death and construct a risk prediction model. Methods: : In this single-centered, retrospective, and observational study, 796 COVID-19 patients developed ARDS and 735 COVID-19 patients without ARDS were matched by propensity score at an approximate ratio of 1:1 based on age, sex and comorbidities. Demographic data, symptoms, radiological findings, laboratory examinations, and clinical outcomes were compared between those with or without ARDS. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were applied to explore the risk factors for development of ARDS and progression from ARDS to death and establish a comprehensive risk model. Results: : Higher SOFA, qSOFA, APACHE II and SIRS scores, elevated inflammatory cytokines, dysregulated multi-organ damage biomarkers, decreased immune cell subsets were associated with higher proportion of death (34.17% vs 1.22%;P <0.001) and increased risk odds of death (OR=57.216, 95%CI=28.373-115.378;P <0.001) in COVID-19 patients with ARDS. In addition to previous reported risk factors related to ARDS development and death, such as neutrophils, IL-6, D-Dimer, leukocytes and platelet, we identified elevated TNF-α (OR=1.146, 95%CI=1.100-1.194;P <0.001), CK-MB (OR=1.350, 95%CI=1.180-1.545;P <0.001), declined ALB (OR=0.834, 95%CI=0.799-0.872;P <0.001), CD8 + T cells (OR=0.983, 95%CI=0.976-0.990;P <0.001) and CD3 - CD19 + B cells (OR=0.992, 95%CI=0.988-0.997;P =0.003) as novel risk factors. Most importantly, the predictive accuracy of the combined model integrating four score systems and these risk factors demonstrated highest among all models for the development of ARDS (AUC= 0.904) and the progression from ARDS to death (AUC= 0.959). Conclusion: COVID-19 patients with ARDS were more likely to develop into death. The potential risk factors and the comprehensive prediction model could be helpful to identify patients that are at risk of developing ARDS with poor prognosis at an early stage, which might help physicians to formulate a timely therapeutic strategy.

J Glob Health ; 11: 05006, 2021 Mar 27.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1173056


BACKGROUND: In December 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan city and rapidly spread throughout China. So far, it has caused ~ 4000 deaths in this country. We aimed to systematically characterize clinical features and determine risk factors of sudden death for COVID-19 patients. METHODS: Deceased patients with COVID-19 in Tongji hospital from January 22 to March 23, 2020 were extracted. Patients who died within 24 hours after admission were identified as sudden deaths, and the others formed non-sudden deaths. The differences in clinical characteristics between the two groups were estimated. Risk factors associated with sudden deaths were explored by logistic regression. RESULTS: 281 deceased patients were enrolled in this study. Sudden death occurred in 28 (10.0%) patients, including 4 (14.3%) admitted to the intensive care unit. Fatigue was more common in sudden deaths (11, 47.8%) than in non-sudden deaths (40, 17.2%). Both the count and percentage of eosinophils were lower in sudden deaths than that in non-sudden deaths (P = 0.006 and P = 0.004). Compared with non-sudden deaths, sudden deaths had higher plasma levels of procalcitonin, C-reactive protein, D-dimer, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, gamma-glutamyl transferase, lactate dehydrogenase, alkaline phosphatase and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide. There were not significant differences in gender, age, chest CT image features and comorbidities observed. CONCLUSIONS: The differences between the two groups suggested more severe systemic inflammation, multi-organ dysfunction, especially impaired liver and heart function in COVID-19 patients who died suddenly after admission. More researches are needed to verify these points.

COVID-19/mortality , Death, Sudden/epidemiology , Patient Admission/statistics & numerical data , SARS-CoV-2 , Aged , Cause of Death , China/epidemiology , Death, Sudden/etiology , Female , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors
Lancet Oncol ; 21(7): 893-903, 2020 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-436717


BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has spread globally. Epidemiological susceptibility to COVID-19 has been reported in patients with cancer. We aimed to systematically characterise clinical features and determine risk factors of COVID-19 disease severity for patients with cancer and COVID-19. METHODS: In this multicentre, retrospective, cohort study, we included all adult patients (aged ≥18 years) with any type of malignant solid tumours and haematological malignancy who were admitted to nine hospitals in Wuhan, China, with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 between Jan 13 and March 18, 2020. Enrolled patients were statistically matched (2:1) with patients admitted with COVID-19 who did not have cancer with propensity score on the basis of age, sex, and comorbidities. Demographic characteristics, laboratory examinations, illness severity, and clinical interventions were compared between patients with COVID-19 with or without cancer as well as between patients with cancer with non-severe or severe COVID-19. COVID-19 disease severity was defined on admission on the basis of the WHO guidelines. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression, adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, cancer type, tumour stage, and antitumour treatments, were used to explore risk factors associated with COVID-19 disease severity. This study was registered in the Chinese Clinical Trial Register, ChiCTR2000030807. FINDINGS: Between Jan 13 and March 18, 2020, 13 077 patients with COVID-19 were admitted to the nine hospitals in Wuhan and 232 patients with cancer and 519 statistically matched patients without cancer were enrolled. Median follow-up was 29 days (IQR 22-38) in patients with cancer and 27 days (20-35) in patients without cancer. Patients with cancer were more likely to have severe COVID-19 than patients without cancer (148 [64%] of 232 vs 166 [32%] of 519; odds ratio [OR] 3·61 [95% CI 2·59-5·04]; p<0·0001). Risk factors previously reported in patients without cancer, such as older age; elevated interleukin 6, procalcitonin, and D-dimer; and reduced lymphocytes were validated in patients with cancer. We also identified advanced tumour stage (OR 2·60, 95% CI 1·05-6·43; p=0·039), elevated tumour necrosis factor α (1·22, 1·01-1·47; p=0·037), elevated N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (1·65, 1·03-2·78; p=0·032), reduced CD4+ T cells (0·84, 0·71-0·98; p=0·031), and reduced albumin-globulin ratio (0·12, 0·02-0·77; p=0·024) as risk factors of COVID-19 severity in patients with cancer. INTERPRETATION: Patients with cancer and COVID-19 were more likely to deteriorate into severe illness than those without cancer. The risk factors identified here could be helpful for early clinical surveillance of disease progression in patients with cancer who present with COVID-19. FUNDING: China National Natural Science Foundation.

Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/pathology , Neoplasms/epidemiology , Neoplasms/pathology , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/pathology , Aged , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , China/epidemiology , Cities/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/complications , Female , Hospitalization , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Neoplasms/complications , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/complications , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2 , Severity of Illness Index