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1.
Economies ; 11(5), 2023.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-20235562

ABSTRACT

The global COVID-19 pandemic has suppressed the economy and people's welfare, including in Indonesia and Central Java Province, as indicated by the weakening of the national economy by -2.06 percent and locally by -2.65 percent in 2020. Although the economy grew by 3.32 percent in 2021, societal welfare remains lower than in 2019, marked by an increase in unemployment and poverty throughout 2019-2021. Furthermore, the threat of COVID-19 including new variants of the virus continues to weigh on the economy, in 2022 and beyond. This study considered an industrial approach to production, based on inter-industrial linkages and policy simulations with input-output analysis. The objectives of this research are to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy of Central Java and to formulate an effective economic recovery policy for industry. The results show that the industries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in Central Java can promote recovery of overall income in economic industry better than the leading industry and the industries with the highest output multipliers, expressed as a proportional increase in final demand for each industry. Meanwhile, the economic recovery strategy of increasing final demand in industries with high output multipliers results in a faster increase in economic output compared with increasing final demand in the affected industries or leading industries.

2.
Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan Ilmu Politik ; 24(1):33-47, 2020.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-1090096

ABSTRACT

This study aimed to analyze the existence and effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on the stock market over the long-term and short-term in Indonesia. The study followed Krugman’s (1979) approach stating the pandemic crisis problems have the potential to decrease the performance of the international balance of payments which will ultimately lead to uncertainty in the market. The research method was the Error Correction Model (ECM) with stock markets as an endogenous variable;and exchange rate, inflation, interest rate, foreign stock markets, commodity price, and pandemic as exogenous variables. The pandemic indicator was measured by total accumulative cases of Covid-19 per day in Indonesia. Using ECM, the result showed that foreign interest rates and commodity prices positively affect the stock markets. Conversely, the exchange rate has a negative effect on the stock markets. However, the estimation fails to reflect the significant impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in the short-term, but it has a negative effect on stock markets in the long-term. This result implies that the higher total accumulative cases of Covid-19 has been the source of Indonesia’s stock market weakness in the long-term. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this study is the first to examine Indonesia’s stock market’s pandemic impact between the short term and long term. © 2020 Universitas Gadjah Mada - Faculty of Social and Political Sciences. All right reserved.

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