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1.
Wellcome Open Res. ; (5)2020.
Article in English | WHO COVID, ELSEVIER | ID: covidwho-2056405

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Vaccines and drugs for the treatment and prevention of COVID-19 require robust evidence generated from clinical trials before they can be used. Decisions on how to apply non-pharmaceutical interventions such as quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing and travel restrictions should also be based on evidence. There are some experiential and mathematical modelling data for these interventions, but there is a lack of data on the social, ethical and behavioural aspects of these interventions in the literature. Therefore, our study aims to produce evidence to inform (non-pharmaceutical) interventions such as communications, quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, travel restrictions and other public health measures for the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: The study will be conducted in the United Kingdom, Italy, Malaysia, Slovenia and Thailand. We propose to conduct 600-1000 quantitative surveys and 25-35 qualitative interviews per country. Data collection will follow the following four themes: (1) Quarantine and self-isolation (2) social distancing and travel restrictions (3) wellbeing and mental health (4) information, misinformation and rumours. In light of limitations of travel and holding in-person meetings, we will primarily use online/remote methods for collecting data. Study participants will be adults who have provided informed consent from different demographic, socio-economic and risk groups. Discussion: At the time of the inception of the study, United Kingdom, Italy, Malaysia, Slovenia and Thailand have initiated strict public health measures and varying degrees of 'lockdowns'; to curb the pandemic. These public health measures will change in the coming weeks and months depending on the number of cases of COVID-19 in the respective countries. The data generated from our study could inform these strategies in real time.

2.
Eur J Health Econ ; 2022 Aug 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1990666

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines, preferred COVID-19 vaccine profiles, and the preferred vaccination strategies in Thailand. METHODS: An age-structured transmission dynamic model was developed based on key local data to evaluate economic consequences, including cost and health outcome in terms of life-years (LYs) saved. We considered COVID-19 vaccines with different profiles and different vaccination strategies such as vaccinating elderly age groups (over 65s) or high-incidence groups, i.e. adults between 20 and 39 years old who have contributed to more than 60% of total COVID-19 cases in the country thus far. Analyses employed a societal perspective in a 1-year time horizon using a cost-effectiveness threshold of 160,000 THB per LY saved. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to identify and characterize uncertainty in the model. RESULTS: COVID-19 vaccines that block infection combined with social distancing were cost-saving regardless of the target population compared to social distancing alone (with no vaccination). For vaccines that block infection, the preferred (cost-effective) strategy was to vaccinate the high incidence group. Meanwhile, COVID-19 vaccines that reduces severity (including hospitalization and mortality) were cost-effective when the elderly were vaccinated, while vaccinating the high-incidence group was not cost-effective with this vaccine type. Regardless of vaccine type, higher vaccination coverage, higher efficacy, and longer protection duration were always preferred. More so, vaccination with social distancing measures was always preferred to strategies without social distancing. Quarantine-related costs were a major cost component affecting the cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 vaccines are good value for money even in a relatively low-incidence and low-mortality setting such as Thailand, if the appropriate groups are vaccinated. The preferred vaccination strategies depend on the type of vaccine efficacy. Social distancing measures should accompany a vaccination strategy.

3.
Frontiers in public health ; 10, 2022.
Article in English | EuropePMC | ID: covidwho-1958475

ABSTRACT

In Thailand, strict prevention and control strategies have been implemented to mitigate the rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). “New normal” guidelines and a series of mobile health applications have been introduced by the healthcare sector and implemented to aid the disease control monitoring and prevention of widespread outbreaks. This study aimed to assess the knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) regarding “new normal” guidelines and quality of life (QOL) among Thai people during the COVID-19 outbreak, and to determine the association between KA, QOL, and practices. An online cross-sectional survey was conducted from 7 June to 12 September 2021 among Thai people in Public Health Region 6 aged ≥ 18 years old. Of the 506 survey participants, 80.3% were female, and 65.0% were 25–59 years old. The survey revealed that 52.2% of participants were classified as having more accurate knowledge, 58.9% were classified as having more positive attitudes, and 80.8% were classified as having more frequent practices regarding “new normal” guidelines, and 54.7% had high QOL. Of the participants, 93.7% agreed that “people who have been fully vaccinated should wear a mask while outside,” and 95.5% wore a face mask outdoors in crowded places. However, 60.9% of participants misunderstood some details regarding online applications for contact tracing and vaccination services, 44.2% felt that these applications were difficult to use, and 33.4% rarely or never downloaded or used these applications. In logistic regression analyses, accurate knowledge of COVID-19 was associated with higher education, being a government employee, monthly family income > 30,000 Thai Baht, and regular use of social media. More positive attitudes regarding “new normal” guidelines and high QOL were associated with positive practices. High QOL was associated with older age, and higher education. Enhancement of attitudes and QOL is also important for improving practices in the general population during the COVID-19 pandemic. Significant factors identified in KAP will be crucial for developing effective prevention and control programs to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. To implement mobile health applications effectively, more work is required to improve the ease of use and promotion strategies.

4.
Antibiotics (Basel) ; 11(6)2022 Jun 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1883972

ABSTRACT

Antimicrobial-resistant Enterobacterales carriage and the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown measures may impact the incidence all-cause mortality rate among nursing home residents. To determine the all-cause mortality rate in the presence/absence of antimicrobial-resistant Enterobacterales carriage and the incidence all-cause mortality rate before and during COVID-19 pandemic lockdown, this prospective closed-cohort study was conducted at various types of nursing homes in Bangkok, Thailand, from June 2020 to December 2021. The elderly residents included 142 participants (aged ≥60 years) living in nursing homes ≥3 months, who did not have terminal illnesses. Time-to-event analyses with Cox proportional hazards models and stratified log-rank tests were used. The all-cause mortality rate was 18%, and the incidence all-cause mortality rate was 0.59/1000 person-days in residents who had antimicrobial-resistant Enterobacterales carriage at baseline. Meanwhile, the incidence all-cause mortality rate among noncarriage was 0.17/1000 person-days. The mortality incidence rate of carriage was three times higher than residents who were noncarriage without statistical significance (HR 3.2; 95% CI 0.74, 13.83). Residents in nonprofit nursing homes had a higher mortality rate than those in for-profit nursing homes (OR 9.24; 95% CI 2.14, 39.86). The incidence mortality rate during and before lockdown were 0.62 and 0.30, respectively. Effective infection-control policies akin to hospital-based systems should be endorsed in all types of nursing homes. To limit the interruption of long-term chronic care, COVID-19 prevention should be individualized to nursing homes.

5.
EuropePMC; 2021.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-318627

ABSTRACT

Background: Any government needs to react quickly to a pandemic and make decisions on healthcare interventions locally and internationally with little information regarding the perceptions of people and the reactions they may receive during the implementation of restrictions. Methods: : We report an anonymous online survey in Thailand conducted in May 2020 to assess public perceptions of three interventions in the Thai context: isolation, quarantine and social distancing. A total of 1,020 participants, of whom 52% were women, responded to the survey. Results: : Loss of income was the main concern among respondents (>80% for all provinces in Thailand). Traditional media and social media were important channels for communication during the pandemic. A total of 92% of respondents reported that they changed their social behaviour even before the implementation of government policy with 94% reporting they performed social distancing, 97% reported using personal protective equipment such as masks and 95% reported using sanitizer products. Conclusions: : This study showed a high level of compliance from individuals with government enforced or voluntarily controls such as quarantine, isolation and social distancing in Thailand. The findings from this study can be used to inform future government measures to control the pandemic and to shape communication strategies.

6.
EuropePMC; 2020.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-318626

ABSTRACT

Introduction : Vaccines and drugs for the treatment and prevention of COVID-19 require robust evidence generated from clinical trials before they can be used. Decisions on how to apply non-pharmaceutical interventions such as quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing and travel restrictions should also be based on evidence. There are some experiential and mathematical modelling data for these interventions, but there is a lack of data on the social, ethical and behavioural aspects of these interventions in the literature. Therefore, our study aims to produce evidence to inform (non-pharmaceutical) interventions such as communications, quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, travel restrictions and other public health measures for the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods : The study will be conducted in the United Kingdom, Italy, Malaysia, Slovenia and Thailand. We propose to conduct 600-1000 quantitative surveys and 25-35 qualitative interviews per country. Data collection will follow the following four themes: (1) Quarantine and self-isolation (2) social distancing and travel restrictions (3) wellbeing and mental health (4) information, misinformation and rumours. In light of limitations of travel and holding in-person meetings, we will primarily use online/remote methods for collecting data. Study participants will be adults who have provided informed consent from different demographic, socio-economic and risk groups. Discussion : At the time of the inception of the study, United Kingdom, Italy, Malaysia, Slovenia and Thailand have initiated strict public health measures and varying degrees of “lockdowns” to curb the pandemic. These public health measures will change in the coming weeks and months depending on the number of cases of COVID-19 in the respective countries. The data generated from our study could inform these strategies in real time.

7.
EuropePMC; 2021.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-315903

ABSTRACT

Thailand is facing the dilemma of which groups to prioritise for the limited first tranche of vaccinations in 2021. A mathematical modelling analysis was performed to compare the potential short-term impact of allocating the available doses to either the high-risk group (over 65-year-olds) or the high incidence group (aged 20-39). Vaccinating the high incidence group with a vaccine with sufficiently high protection against infection (more than 50%) could provide enough herd effects to delay the expected epidemic peak, resulting in fewer deaths within the 12-month time horizon compared to vaccinating the same number of the high-risk group. After 12 months, if no further vaccination or other interventions were deployed, this strategy would lead to more deaths. With the right vaccine efficacy profile, targeting the high incidence groups could be a viable short-term component of the Thai vaccination strategy. These results and emerging evidence on vaccines and susceptibility suggest prioritisation guidelines should be more nuanced.

8.
PLoS One ; 17(1): e0262421, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1643262

ABSTRACT

This qualitative study explores the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including social distancing, travel restrictions and quarantine, on lived experiences during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand (TH), Malaysia (MY), Italy (IT) and the United Kingdom (UK). A total of 86 interviews (TH: n = 28; MY: n = 18; IT: n = 20; UK: n = 20) were conducted with members of the public, including healthcare workers (n = 13). Participants across countries held strong views on government imposed NPIs, with many feeling measures lacked clarity. Most participants reported primarily negative impacts of NPIs on their lives, including through separation, isolation and grief over missed milestones; work-related challenges and income loss; and poor mental health and wellbeing. Nonetheless, many also experienced inadvertent positive consequences, including more time at home to focus on what they most valued in life; a greater sense of connectedness; and benefits to working life. Commonly employed coping strategies focused on financial coping (e.g. reducing spending); psycho-emotional coping (e.g. engaging in spiritual practices); social coping and connectedness (e.g., maintaining relationships remotely); reducing and mitigating risks (e.g., changing food shopping routines); and limiting exposure to the news (e.g., checking news only occasionally). Importantly, the extent to which participants' lived experiences were positive or negative, and their ability to cope was underpinned by individual, social and economic factors, with the analysis indicating some salient differences across countries and participants. In order to mitigate negative and unequal impacts of NPIs, COVID-19 policies will benefit from paying closer attention to the social, cultural and psychological-not just biological-vulnerabilities to, and consequences of public health measures.


Subject(s)
Adaptation, Psychological , Attitude , COVID-19 , Public Health , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Communicable Disease Control , Female , Health Surveys , Humans , Italy , Malaysia , Male , Middle Aged , Thailand , United Kingdom , Young Adult
9.
2021.
Preprint in English | Other preprints | ID: ppcovidwho-295938

ABSTRACT

This qualitative study explores the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on lived experiences during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on people’s lives in Thailand, Malaysia, Italy and the United Kingdom. A total of 86 interviews were conducted with members of the public, including healthcare workers. Participants across countries held strong views on NPIs, with many feeling measures lacked clarity. Most participants reported primarily negative impacts of NPIs on their lives, including through separation, isolation and grief over missed milestones;work-related challenges and income loss;and poor mental health and wellbeing. Nonetheless, many also experienced inadvertent positive consequences, including more time at home to focus on what they most valued in life;a greater sense of connectedness;and benefits to working life. Commonly employed coping strategies focused on financial coping;psycho-emotional coping;social coping and connectedness;reducing and mitigating risks;and limiting exposure to the news. Importantly, the extent to which participants’ lived experiences were positive or negative, and their ability to cope was underpinned by individual, social and economic factors. In order to mitigate negative and unequal impacts of NPIs, COVID-19 policies will benefit from paying closer attention to the social, cultural and psychological—not just biological—vulnerabilities to, and consequences of public health measures.

10.
Elife ; 102021 11 25.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1534521

ABSTRACT

Background: Transmission of respiratory pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 depends on patterns of contact and mixing across populations. Understanding this is crucial to predict pathogen spread and the effectiveness of control efforts. Most analyses of contact patterns to date have focused on high-income settings. Methods: Here, we conduct a systematic review and individual-participant meta-analysis of surveys carried out in low- and middle-income countries and compare patterns of contact in these settings to surveys previously carried out in high-income countries. Using individual-level data from 28,503 participants and 413,069 contacts across 27 surveys, we explored how contact characteristics (number, location, duration, and whether physical) vary across income settings. Results: Contact rates declined with age in high- and upper-middle-income settings, but not in low-income settings, where adults aged 65+ made similar numbers of contacts as younger individuals and mixed with all age groups. Across all settings, increasing household size was a key determinant of contact frequency and characteristics, with low-income settings characterised by the largest, most intergenerational households. A higher proportion of contacts were made at home in low-income settings, and work/school contacts were more frequent in high-income strata. We also observed contrasting effects of gender across income strata on the frequency, duration, and type of contacts individuals made. Conclusions: These differences in contact patterns between settings have material consequences for both spread of respiratory pathogens and the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions. Funding: This work is primarily being funded by joint Centre funding from the UK Medical Research Council and DFID (MR/R015600/1).


Infectious diseases, particularly those caused by airborne pathogens like SARS-CoV-2, spread by social contact, and understanding how people mix is critical in controlling outbreaks. To explore these patterns, researchers typically carry out large contact surveys. Participants are asked for personal information (such as gender, age and occupation), as well as details of recent social contacts, usually those that happened in the last 24 hours. This information includes, the age and gender of the contact, where the interaction happened, how long it lasted, and whether it involved physical touch. These kinds of surveys help scientists to predict how infectious diseases might spread. But there is a problem: most of the data come from high-income countries, and there is evidence to suggest that social contact patterns differ between places. Therefore, data from these countries might not be useful for predicting how infections spread in lower-income regions. Here, Mousa et al. have collected and combined data from 27 contact surveys carried out before the COVID-19 pandemic to see how baseline social interactions vary between high- and lower-income settings. The comparison revealed that, in higher-income countries, the number of daily contacts people made decreased with age. But, in lower-income countries, younger and older individuals made similar numbers of contacts and mixed with all age groups. In higher-income countries, more contacts happened at work or school, while in low-income settings, more interactions happened at home and people were also more likely to live in larger, intergenerational households. Mousa et al. also found that gender affected how long contacts lasted and whether they involved physical contact, both of which are key risk factors for transmitting airborne pathogens. These findings can help researchers to predict how infectious diseases might spread in different settings. They can also be used to assess how effective non-medical restrictions, like shielding of the elderly and workplace closures, will be at reducing transmissions in different parts of the world.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/transmission , Disease Transmission, Infectious , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , COVID-19/virology , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Young Adult
11.
Wellcome Open Res ; 5: 245, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1502786

ABSTRACT

Background: Any government needs to react quickly to a pandemic and make decisions on healthcare interventions locally and internationally with little information regarding the perceptions of people and the reactions they may receive during the implementation of restrictions. Methods: We report an anonymous online survey in Thailand conducted in May 2020 to assess public perceptions of three interventions in the Thai context: isolation, quarantine and social distancing. A total of 1,020 participants, of whom 52% were women, responded to the survey. Results: Loss of income was the main concern among respondents (>80% for all provinces in Thailand). Traditional media and social media were important channels for communication during the pandemic. A total of 92% of respondents reported that they changed their social behaviour even before the implementation of government policy with 94% reporting they performed social distancing, 97% reported using personal protective equipment such as masks and 95% reported using sanitizer products. Conclusions: This study showed a high level of compliance from individuals with government enforced or voluntarily controls such as quarantine, isolation and social distancing in Thailand. The findings from this study can be used to inform future government measures to control the pandemic and to shape communication strategies.

12.
PLoS Med ; 18(10): e1003793, 2021 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1477510

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The importance of infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction research is underscored by decades of communicable disease outbreaks, including COVID-19. Unlike other fields of medical research, such as clinical trials and systematic reviews, no reporting guidelines exist for reporting epidemic forecasting and prediction research despite their utility. We therefore developed the EPIFORGE checklist, a guideline for standardized reporting of epidemic forecasting research. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed this checklist using a best-practice process for development of reporting guidelines, involving a Delphi process and broad consultation with an international panel of infectious disease modelers and model end users. The objectives of these guidelines are to improve the consistency, reproducibility, comparability, and quality of epidemic forecasting reporting. The guidelines are not designed to advise scientists on how to perform epidemic forecasting and prediction research, but rather to serve as a standard for reporting critical methodological details of such studies. CONCLUSIONS: These guidelines have been submitted to the EQUATOR network, in addition to hosting by other dedicated webpages to facilitate feedback and journal endorsement.


Subject(s)
Biomedical Research/standards , COVID-19/epidemiology , Checklist/standards , Epidemics , Guidelines as Topic/standards , Research Design , Biomedical Research/methods , Checklist/methods , Communicable Diseases/epidemiology , Epidemics/statistics & numerical data , Forecasting/methods , Humans , Reproducibility of Results
13.
BMJ Open ; 11(7): e046863, 2021 07 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1319398

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To understand the impact of COVID-19 and public health measures on different social groups, we conducted a mixed-methods study in five countries ('SEBCOV-social, ethical and behavioural aspects of COVID-19'). Here, we report the results of the online survey. STUDY DESIGN AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Overall, 5058 respondents from Thailand, Malaysia, the UK, Italy and Slovenia completed the self-administered survey between May and June 2020. Poststratification weighting was applied, and associations between categorical variables assessed. Frequency counts and percentages were used to summarise categorical data. Associations between categorical variables were assessed using Pearson's χ2 test. Data were analysed in Stata 15.0 RESULTS: Among the five countries, Thai respondents reported having been most, and Slovenian respondents least, affected economically. The following factors were associated with greater negative economic impacts: being 18-24 years or 65 years or older; lower education levels; larger households; having children under 18 in the household and and having flexible/no income. Regarding social impact, respondents expressed most concern about their social life, physical health, mental health and well-being.There were large differences between countries in terms of voluntary behavioural change, and in compliance and agreement with COVID-19 restrictions. Overall, self-reported compliance was higher among respondents who self-reported a high understanding of COVID-19. UK respondents felt able to cope the longest and Thai respondents the shortest with only going out for essential needs or work. Many respondents reported seeing news perceived to be fake, the proportion varying between countries, with education level and self-reported levels of understanding of COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: Our data showed that COVID-19 and public health measures have uneven economic and social impacts on people from different countries and social groups. Understanding the factors associated with these impacts can help to inform future public health interventions and mitigate their negative consequences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: TCTR20200401002.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Social Change , Child , Cross-Sectional Studies , Humans , Italy , Malaysia , SARS-CoV-2 , Slovenia , Surveys and Questionnaires , Thailand , United Kingdom
14.
Appl Health Econ Health Policy ; 19(4): 463-472, 2021 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1300549

ABSTRACT

With vaccines for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) being introduced in countries across the world, policy makers are facing many practical considerations about how best to implement a vaccination programme. The supply of vaccines is insufficient for the global population, so decisions must be made as to which groups are prioritised for any vaccination and when. Furthermore, the aims of vaccination programmes will differ between countries, with some prioritising economic benefits that could stem from the relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions and others seeking simply to reduce the number of COVID-19 cases or deaths. This paper aims to share the experiences and lessons learned from conducting economic evaluations in Singapore and Thailand on hypothetical COVID-19 vaccines to provide a basis for other countries to develop their own contextualised economic evaluations, with particular focus on the key uncertainties, technical challenges, and characteristics that modellers should consider in partnership with key stakeholders. Which vaccines, vaccination strategies, and policy responses are most economically beneficial remains uncertain. It is therefore important for all governments to conduct their own analyses to inform local policy responses to COVID-19, including the implementation of COVID-19 vaccines in both the short and the long run. It is essential that such studies are designed, and ideally conducted, before vaccines are introduced so that policy decisions and implementation procedures are not delayed.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines/economics , COVID-19/prevention & control , Health Policy/economics , Immunization Programs/economics , Immunization Programs/statistics & numerical data , Vaccination/economics , Vaccination/statistics & numerical data , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Humans , SARS-CoV-2 , Singapore , Thailand
15.
BMC Public Health ; 21(1): 749, 2021 04 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1190068

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Key infection prevention and control measures to limit transmission of COVID-19 include social distancing, hand hygiene, use of facemasks and personal protective equipment. However, these have limited or no impact if not applied correctly through lack of knowledge, inappropriate attitude or incorrect practice. In order to maximise the impact of infection prevention and control measures on COVID-19 spread, we undertook a study to assess and improve knowledge, attitudes and practice among 119 healthcare workers and 100 general public in Thailand. The study setting was two inpatient hospitals providing COVID-19 testing and treatment. Detailed information on knowledge, attitudes and practice among the general public and healthcare workers regarding COVID-19 transmission and its prevention were obtained from a combination of questionnaires and observations. RESULTS: Knowledge of the main transmission routes, commonest symptoms and recommended prevention methods was mostly very high (> 80%) in both groups. There was lower awareness of aerosols, food and drink and pets as sources of transmission; of the correct duration for handwashing; recommended distance for social/physical distancing; and about recommended types of face coverings. Information sources most used and most trusted were the workplace, work colleagues, health workers and television. The results were used to produce a set of targeted educational videos which addressed many of these gaps with subsequent improvements on retesting in a number of areas. This included improvements in handwashing practice with an increase in the number of areas correctly washed in 65.5% of the public, and 57.9% of healthcare workers. The videos were then further optimized with feedback from participants followed by another round of retesting. CONCLUSIONS: Detailed information on gaps in knowledge, attitudes and practice among the general public and healthcare workers regarding COVID-19 transmission and its prevention were obtained from a combination of questionnaires and observations. This was used to produce targeted educational videos which addressed these gaps with subsequent improvements on retesting. The resulting videos were then disseminated as a resource to aid in efforts to fight COVID-19 in Thailand and worldwide.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/prevention & control , Communicable Disease Control , Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice , Health Personnel , COVID-19/transmission , COVID-19 Testing , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Male , Surveys and Questionnaires , Thailand
16.
Biology (Basel) ; 10(2)2021 Jan 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1045467

ABSTRACT

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly worldwide. This study aimed to assess and predict the incidence of COVID-19 in Thailand, including the preparation and evaluation of intervention strategies. An SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered) model was implemented with model parameters estimated using the Bayesian approach. The model's projections showed that the highest daily reported incidence of COVID-19 would be approximately 140 cases (95% credible interval, CrI: 83-170 cases) by the end of March 2020. After Thailand declared an emergency decree, the numbers of new cases and case fatalities decreased, with no new imported cases. According to the model's predictions, the incidence would be zero at the end of June if non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were strictly and widely implemented. These stringent NPIs reduced the effective reproductive number (Rt) to 0.73 per day (95% CrI: 0.53-0.93) during April and May. Sensitivity analysis showed that contact rate, hand washing, and face mask wearing effectiveness were the parameters that most influenced the number of reported daily new cases. Our evaluation shows that Thailand's intervention strategies have been highly effective in mitigating disease propagation. Continuing with these strict disease prevention behaviors could minimize the risk of a new COVID-19 outbreak in Thailand.

17.
BMJ Glob Health ; 5(12)2020 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-999252

ABSTRACT

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on multiple levels of society. Not only has the pandemic completely overwhelmed some health systems but it has also changed how scientific evidence is shared and increased the pace at which such evidence is published and consumed, by scientists, policymakers and the wider public. More significantly, the pandemic has created tremendous challenges for decision-makers, who have had to implement highly disruptive containment measures with very little empirical scientific evidence to support their decision-making process. Given this lack of data, predictive mathematical models have played an increasingly prominent role. In high-income countries, there is a long-standing history of established research groups advising policymakers, whereas a general lack of translational capacity has meant that mathematical models frequently remain inaccessible to policymakers in low-income and middle-income countries. Here, we describe a participatory approach to modelling that aims to circumvent this gap. Our approach involved the creation of an international group of infectious disease modellers and other public health experts, which culminated in the establishment of the COVID-19 Modelling (CoMo) Consortium. Here, we describe how the consortium was formed, the way it functions, the mathematical model used and, crucially, the high degree of engagement fostered between CoMo Consortium members and their respective local policymakers and ministries of health.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Internationality , Models, Theoretical , Pandemics , Research , COVID-19/physiopathology , Culture , Delivery of Health Care/organization & administration , Global Health , Health Policy , Humans , Public Health , SARS-CoV-2 , Social Class , Uncertainty
18.
ProQuest Central; 2020.
Preprint in English | ProQuest Central | ID: ppcovidwho-2111

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Vaccines and drugs for the treatment and prevention of COVID-19 require robust evidence generated from clinical trials before they can be used. Decisions on how to apply non-pharmaceutical interventions such as quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing and travel restrictions should also be based on evidence. There are some experiential and mathematical modelling data for these interventions, but there is a lack of data on the social, ethical and behavioural aspects of these interventions in the literature. Therefore, our study aims to produce evidence to inform (non-pharmaceutical) interventions such as communications, quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, travel restrictions and other public health measures for the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: The study will be conducted in the United Kingdom, Italy, Malaysia and Thailand. We propose to conduct 600-1000 quantitative surveys and 25-35 qualitative interviews per country. Data collection will follow the following four themes: (1) Quarantine and self-isolation (2) social distancing and travel restrictions (3) wellbeing and mental health (4) information, misinformation and rumours. In light of limitations of travel and holding in-person meetings, we will use online/remote methods for collecting data. Study participant will be adults who have provided informed consent from different demographic, socio-economic and risk groups. Discussion: At the time of writing, United Kingdom, Italy, Malaysia and Thailand have initiated strict public health measures and varying degrees of “lockdowns” to curthe pandemic. It is anticipated that these public health measures will continue in some countries (e.g. Italy, Malaysia) or be tightened further in other countries (e.g. Thailand, UK) to control the spread of the disease in the coming weeks and months. The data generated from our study could inform these strategies in real time.

19.
PLoS One ; 15(9): e0239645, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-793324

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: As a new emerging infectious disease pandemic, there is an urgent need to understand the dynamics of COVID-19 in each country to inform planning of emergency measures to contain its spread. It is essential that appropriate disease control activities are planned and implemented in a timely manner. Thailand was one of the first countries outside China to be affected with subsequent importation and domestic spread in most provinces in the country. METHOD: A key ingredient to guide planning and implementation of public health measures is a metric of transmissibility which represents the infectiousness of a disease. Ongoing policies can utilize this information to plan appropriately with updated estimates of disease transmissibility. Therefore we present descriptive analyses and preliminary statistical estimation of reproduction numbers over time and space to facilitate disease control activities in Thailand. RESULTS: The estimated basic reproduction number for COVID-19 during the study ranged from 2.23-5.90, with a mean of 3.75. We also tracked disease dynamics over time using temporal and spatiotemporal reproduction numbers. The results suggest that the outbreak was under control since the middle of April. After the boxing stadium and entertainment venues, the numbers of new cases had increased and spread across the country. DISCUSSION: Although various scenarios about assumptions were explored in this study, the real situation was difficult to determine given the limited data. More thorough mathematical modelling would be helpful to improve the estimation of transmissibility metrics for emergency preparedness as more epidemiological and clinical information about this new infection becomes available. However, the results can be used to guide interventions directly and to help parameterize models to predict the impact of these interventions.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Pneumonia, Viral/transmission , Spatio-Temporal Analysis , Basic Reproduction Number , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Humans , Models, Theoretical , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , Thailand/epidemiology
20.
Wellcome Open Res. ; (5)2020.
Article in English | WHO COVID, ELSEVIER | ID: covidwho-680848

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Vaccines and drugs for the treatment and prevention of COVID-19 require robust evidence generated from clinical trials before they can be used. Decisions on how to apply non-pharmaceutical interventions such as quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing and travel restrictions should also be based on evidence. There are some experiential and mathematical modelling data for these interventions, but there is a lack of data on the social, ethical and behavioural aspects of these interventions in the literature. Therefore, our study aims to produce evidence to inform (non-pharmaceutical) interventions such as communications, quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, travel restrictions and other public health measures for the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: The study will be conducted in the United Kingdom, Italy, Malaysia, Slovenia and Thailand. We propose to conduct 600-1000 quantitative surveys and 25-35 qualitative interviews per country. Data collection will follow the following four themes: (1) Quarantine and self-isolation (2) social distancing and travel restrictions (3) wellbeing and mental health (4) information, misinformation and rumours. In light of limitations of travel and holding in-person meetings, we will primarily use online/remote methods for collecting data. Study participants will be adults who have provided informed consent from different demographic, socio-economic and risk groups. Discussion: At the time of the inception of the study, United Kingdom, Italy, Malaysia, Slovenia and Thailand have initiated strict public health measures and varying degrees of 'lockdowns'; to curb the pandemic. These public health measures will change in the coming weeks and months depending on the number of cases of COVID-19 in the respective countries. The data generated from our study could inform these strategies in real time.

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