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1.
Clin Infect Dis ; 2021 Sep 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2017763

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The public health impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has motivated a rapid search for potential therapeutics, with some key successes. However, the potential impact of different treatments, and consequently research and procurement priorities, have not been clear. METHODS: Using a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, COVID-19 disease and clinical care, we explore the public-health impact of different potential therapeutics, under a range of scenarios varying healthcare capacity, epidemic trajectories; and drug efficacy in the absence of supportive care. RESULTS: The impact of drugs like dexamethasone (delivered to the most critically-ill in hospital and whose therapeutic benefit is expected to depend on the availability of supportive care such as oxygen and mechanical ventilation) is likely to be limited in settings where healthcare capacity is lowest or where uncontrolled epidemics result in hospitals being overwhelmed. As such, it may avert 22% of deaths in high-income countries but only 8% in low-income countries (assuming R=1.35). Therapeutics for different patient populations (those not in hospital, early in the course of infection) and types of benefit (reducing disease severity or infectiousness, preventing hospitalisation) could have much greater benefits, particularly in resource-poor settings facing large epidemics. CONCLUSIONS: Advances in the treatment of COVID-19 to date have been focussed on hospitalised-patients and predicated on an assumption of adequate access to supportive care. Therapeutics delivered earlier in the course of infection that reduce the need for healthcare or reduce infectiousness could have significant impact, and research into their efficacy and means of delivery should be a priority.

2.
Clin Infect Dis ; 2021 Sep 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1434380

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The public health impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has motivated a rapid search for potential therapeutics, with some key successes. However, the potential impact of different treatments, and consequently research and procurement priorities, have not been clear. METHODS: Using a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, COVID-19 disease and clinical care, we explore the public-health impact of different potential therapeutics, under a range of scenarios varying healthcare capacity, epidemic trajectories; and drug efficacy in the absence of supportive care. RESULTS: The impact of drugs like dexamethasone (delivered to the most critically-ill in hospital and whose therapeutic benefit is expected to depend on the availability of supportive care such as oxygen and mechanical ventilation) is likely to be limited in settings where healthcare capacity is lowest or where uncontrolled epidemics result in hospitals being overwhelmed. As such, it may avert 22% of deaths in high-income countries but only 8% in low-income countries (assuming R=1.35). Therapeutics for different patient populations (those not in hospital, early in the course of infection) and types of benefit (reducing disease severity or infectiousness, preventing hospitalisation) could have much greater benefits, particularly in resource-poor settings facing large epidemics. CONCLUSIONS: Advances in the treatment of COVID-19 to date have been focussed on hospitalised-patients and predicated on an assumption of adequate access to supportive care. Therapeutics delivered earlier in the course of infection that reduce the need for healthcare or reduce infectiousness could have significant impact, and research into their efficacy and means of delivery should be a priority.

4.
Cardiovasc Drugs Ther ; 2021 Jun 25.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1281294

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) has, to date, been diagnosed in over 130 million persons worldwide and is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Several variants of concern have emerged including those in the United Kingdom, South Africa, and Brazil. SARS-CoV-2 can cause a dysregulated inflammatory response known as a cytokine storm, which can progress rapidly to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), multi-organ failure, and death. Suppressing these cytokine elevations may be key to improving outcomes. Remote ischemic conditioning (RIC) is a simple, non-invasive procedure whereby a blood pressure cuff is inflated and deflated on the upper arm for several cycles. "RIC in COVID-19" is a pilot, multi-center, randomized clinical trial, designed to ascertain whether RIC suppresses inflammatory cytokine production. METHODS: A minimum of 55 adult patients with diagnosed COVID-19, but not of critical status, will be enrolled from centers in the United Kingdom, Brazil, and South Africa. RIC will be administered daily for up to 15 days. The primary outcome is the level of inflammatory cytokines that are involved in the cytokine storm that can occur following SARS-CoV-2 infection. The secondary endpoint is the time between admission and until intensive care admission or death. The in vitro cytotoxicity of patient blood will also be assessed using primary human cardiac endothelial cells. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this pilot study will provide initial evidence on the ability of RIC to suppress the production of inflammatory cytokines in the setting of COVID-19. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04699227, registered January 7th, 2021.

5.
Science ; 369(6508): 1255-1260, 2020 09 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-675945

ABSTRACT

Brazil currently has one of the fastest-growing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics in the world. Because of limited available data, assessments of the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on this virus spread remain challenging. Using a mobility-driven transmission model, we show that NPIs reduced the reproduction number from >3 to 1 to 1.6 in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Sequencing of 427 new genomes and analysis of a geographically representative genomic dataset identified >100 international virus introductions in Brazil. We estimate that most (76%) of the Brazilian strains fell in three clades that were introduced from Europe between 22 February and 11 March 2020. During the early epidemic phase, we found that SARS-CoV-2 spread mostly locally and within state borders. After this period, despite sharp decreases in air travel, we estimated multiple exportations from large urban centers that coincided with a 25% increase in average traveled distances in national flights. This study sheds new light on the epidemic transmission and evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Brazil and provides evidence that current interventions remain insufficient to keep virus transmission under control in this country.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus/genetics , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/transmission , Basic Reproduction Number , Bayes Theorem , Betacoronavirus/classification , Brazil/epidemiology , COVID-19 , COVID-19 Testing , Cities/epidemiology , Clinical Laboratory Techniques , Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Europe , Evolution, Molecular , Genome, Viral , Humans , Models, Genetic , Models, Statistical , Pandemics/prevention & control , Phylogeny , Phylogeography , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/virology , SARS-CoV-2 , Spatio-Temporal Analysis , Travel , Urban Population
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