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1.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 17(15)2020 07 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-693623

ABSTRACT

This study analyzed the morbidity and mortality rates of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in different prefectures of Japan. Under the constraint that daily maximum confirmed deaths and daily maximum cases should exceed 4 and 10, respectively, 14 prefectures were included, and cofactors affecting the morbidity and mortality rates were evaluated. In particular, the number of confirmed deaths was assessed, excluding cases of nosocomial infections and nursing home patients. The correlations between the morbidity and mortality rates and population density were statistically significant (p-value < 0.05). In addition, the percentage of elderly population was also found to be non-negligible. Among weather parameters, the maximum temperature and absolute humidity averaged over the duration were found to be in modest correlation with the morbidity and mortality rates. Lower morbidity and mortality rates were observed for higher temperature and absolute humidity. Multivariate linear regression considering these factors showed that the adjusted determination coefficient for the confirmed cases was 0.693 in terms of population density, elderly percentage, and maximum absolute humidity (p-value < 0.01). These findings could be useful for intervention planning during future pandemics, including a potential second COVID-19 outbreak.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Population Density , Weather , Aged , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Disease Outbreaks , Forecasting , Humans , Humidity , Japan/epidemiology , Morbidity , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/virology , Temperature
2.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 17(15)2020 07 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-671400

ABSTRACT

This study analyzed the spread and decay durations of the COVID-19 pandemic in different prefectures of Japan. During the pandemic, affordable healthcare was widely available in Japan and the medical system did not suffer a collapse, making accurate comparisons between prefectures possible. For the 16 prefectures included in this study that had daily maximum confirmed cases exceeding ten, the number of daily confirmed cases follow bell-shape or log-normal distribution in most prefectures. A good correlation was observed between the spread and decay durations. However, some exceptions were observed in areas where travelers returned from foreign countries, which were defined as the origins of infection clusters. Excluding these prefectures, the population density was shown to be a major factor, affecting the spread and decay patterns, with R2 = 0.39 (p < 0.05) and 0.42 (p < 0.05), respectively, approximately corresponding to social distancing. The maximum absolute humidity was found to affect the decay duration normalized by the population density (R2 > 0.36, p < 0.05). Our findings indicate that the estimated pandemic spread duration, based on the multivariate analysis of maximum absolute humidity, ambient temperature, and population density (adjusted R2 = 0.53, p-value < 0.05), could prove useful for intervention planning during potential future pandemics, including a second COVID-19 outbreak.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Humidity , Pneumonia, Viral/transmission , Population Density , Temperature , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Humans , Japan , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/virology
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