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1.
EuropePMC; 2022.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-333008

ABSTRACT

Importance Predictive models can help identify SARS-CoV-2 patients at greatest risk of post-COVID sequelae and direct them towards appropriate care. Objective To develop and internally validate a model to predict children and young people most likely to experience at least one impairing physical symptom 3 months after a SARS-CoV-2 PCR-test and to determine whether the impact of these predictors differed by SARS-CoV-2 infection status. Design Potential pre-specified predictors included: SARS-CoV-2 status, sex, age, ethnicity, deprivation, quality of life/functioning (5 EQ-5D-Y items), physical and mental health, and loneliness (all prior to SARS-CoV-2 testing), and number of physical symptoms at testing. Logistic regression was used to develop the model. Model performance was assessed using calibration and discrimination measures;internal validation was performed via bootstrapping;the final model was adjusted for overfitting. Setting National cohort study of SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive and PCR-negative participants matched according to age, sex, and geographical area. Participants Children and young people aged 11-17 years who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection in England, January to March 2021. Main outcome measure one or more physical symptom 3 months after initial PCR-testing which affected physical, mental or social well-being and interfered with daily living. Results A total of 50,836 children and young people were approached;7,096 (3,227 test-positives, 3,869 test-negatives) who completed a questionnaire 3 months after their PCR-test were included. 39.6% (1,279/3,227) of SAR-CoV-2 PCR-positives and 30.6% (1,184/3,869) of SAR-CoV-2 PCR-negatives had at least one impairing physical symptom 3 months post-test. The final model contained predictors: SARS-COV-2 status, number of symptoms at testing, sex, age, ethnicity, self-rated physical and mental health, feelings of loneliness and four EQ-5D-Y items before testing. Internal validation showed minimal overfitting with excellent calibration and discrimination measures (optimism adjusted calibration slope:0.97527;C-statistic:0.83640). Conclusions and relevance We developed a risk prediction equation to identify those most at risk of experiencing at least one impairing physical symptom 3 months after a SARS-CoV-2 PCR-test which could serve as a useful triage and management tool for children and young people during the ongoing pandemic. External validation is required before large-scale implementation. Key Points Question Which children have impairing physical symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic? Findings Using data from a large national matched cohort study in children and young people (CYP) aged 11-17 years (N=7,096), we developed a prediction model for experiencing at least one impairing physical symptom 3 months after testing for SARS-COV-2. Our model had excellent predictive ability, calibration and discrimination;we used it to produce a risk estimation calculator. Meaning Our developed risk calculator could serve as a useful tool in the early identification and management of CYP at risk of persisting physical symptoms in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.

2.
Arch Dis Child ; 2022 Apr 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1774936

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to derive a research definition for 'Long COVID (post-COVID-19 condition)' in children and young people (CYP) to allow comparisons between research studies. DESIGN: A three-phase online Delphi process was used, followed by a consensus meeting. Participants were presented with 49 statements in each phase and scored them from 1 to 9 based on how important they were for inclusion in the research definition of Long COVID in CYP. The consensus meeting was held to achieve representation across the stakeholder groups. Statements agreed at the consensus meeting were reviewed by participants in the Patient and Public Involvement (PPI) Research Advisory Group. SETTING: The study was conducted remotely using online surveys and a virtual consensus meeting. PARTICIPANTS: 120 people with relevant expertise were divided into three panels according to their area of expertise: Service Delivery, Research (or combination of research and service delivery) and Lived Experience. The PPI Research Advisory group consisted of CYP aged 11-17 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Consensus was defined using existing guidelines. If consensus was achieved in two or more panels or was on the border between one and two panels, those statements were discussed and voted on at the consensus meeting. RESULTS: Ten statements were taken forward for discussion in the consensus meeting and five statements met threshold to be included in the research definition of Long COVID among CYP. The research definition, aligned to the clinical case definition of the WHO, is proposed as follows: Post-COVID-19 condition occurs in young people with a history of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, with at least one persisting physical symptom for a minimum duration of 12 weeks after initial testing that cannot be explained by an alternative diagnosis. The symptoms have an impact on everyday functioning, may continue or develop after COVID infection, and may fluctuate or relapse over time. The positive COVID-19 test referred to in this definition can be a lateral flow antigen test, a PCR test or an antibody test. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first research definition of Long COVID (post-COVID-19 condition) in CYP and complements the clinical case definition in adults proposed by the WHO.

3.
EuropePMC; 2021.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-322075

ABSTRACT

Introduction: We describe post-COVID symptomatology in a national sample of 11-17-year-old children and young people (CYP) with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to test-negative controls. Methods: and analysis: A cohort study of test-positive (n=3,065) and age-, sex- and geographically-matched test-negative CYP (n=3,739) completed detailed questionnaires 3 months post-test. Results: At PCR-testing, 35.4% of test-positives and 8.3% of test-negatives had any symptoms whilst 30.6% and 6.2%, respectively, had 3+ symptoms. At 3 months post-testing, 66.5% of test-positives and 53.3% of test-negatives had any symptoms, whilst 30.3% and 16.2%, respectively, had 3+ symptoms. Latent class analysis identified two classes, characterised by “few” or “multiple” symptoms. This latter class was more frequent among test-positives, females, older CYP and those with worse pre-test physical and mental health. Discussion: Test-positive CYP had a similar symptom profile to test-negative CYP but with higher prevalence of single and, particularly, multiple symptoms at PCR-testing and 3 months later.

4.
Lancet Child Adolesc Health ; 6(4): 230-239, 2022 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1671374

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: We describe post-COVID symptomatology in a non-hospitalised, national sample of adolescents aged 11-17 years with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with matched adolescents with negative PCR status. METHODS: In this national cohort study, adolescents aged 11-17 years from the Public Health England database who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 between January and March, 2021, were matched by month of test, age, sex, and geographical region to adolescents who tested negative. 3 months after testing, a subsample of adolescents were contacted to complete a detailed questionnaire, which collected data on demographics and their physical and mental health at the time of PCR testing (retrospectively) and at the time of completing the questionnaire (prospectively). We compared symptoms between the test-postive and test-negative groups, and used latent class analysis to assess whether and how physical symptoms at baseline and at 3 months clustered among participants. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry (ISRCTN 34804192). FINDINGS: 23 048 adolescents who tested positive and 27 798 adolescents who tested negative between Jan 1, 2021, and March 31, 2021, were contacted, and 6804 adolescents (3065 who tested positive and 3739 who tested negative) completed the questionnaire (response rate 13·4%). At PCR testing, 1084 (35·4%) who tested positive and 309 (8·3%) who tested negative were symptomatic and 936 (30·5%) from the test-positive group and 231 (6·2%) from the test-negative group had three or more symptoms. 3 months after testing, 2038 (66·5%) who tested positive and 1993 (53·3%) who tested negative had any symptoms, and 928 (30·3%) from the test-positive group and 603 (16·2%) from the test-negative group had three or more symptoms. At 3 months after testing, the most common symptoms among the test-positive group were tiredness (1196 [39·0%]), headache (710 [23·2%]), and shortness of breath (717 [23·4%]), and among the test-negative group were tiredness (911 [24·4%]), headache (530 [14·2%]), and other (unspecified; 590 [15·8%]). Latent class analysis identified two classes, characterised by few or multiple symptoms. The estimated probability of being in the multiple symptom class was 29·6% (95% CI 27·4-31·7) for the test-positive group and 19·3% (17·7-21·0) for the test-negative group (risk ratio 1·53; 95% CI 1·35-1·70). The multiple symptoms class was more frequent among those with positive PCR results than negative results, in girls than boys, in adolescents aged 15-17 years than those aged 11-14 years, and in those with lower pretest physical and mental health. INTERPRETATION: Adolescents who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 had similar symptoms to those who tested negative, but had a higher prevalence of single and, particularly, multiple symptoms at the time of PCR testing and 3 months later. Clinicians should consider multiple symptoms that affect functioning and recognise different clusters of symptoms. The multiple and varied symptoms show that a multicomponent intervention will be required, and that mental and physical health symptoms occur concurrently, reflecting their close relationship. FUNDING: UK Department of Health and Social Care, in their capacity as the National Institute for Health Research, and UK Research and Innovation.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/complications , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/epidemiology , Adolescent , COVID-19/pathology , COVID-19/psychology , COVID-19 Testing , Child , Cohort Studies , England/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Male , Polymerase Chain Reaction , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Surveys and Questionnaires
6.
BMJ Open ; 11(8): e052838, 2021 08 26.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1376511

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: There is uncertainty surrounding the diagnosis, prevalence, phenotype, duration and treatment of Long COVID. This study aims to (A) describe the clinical phenotype of post-COVID symptomatology in children and young people (CYP) with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with test-negative controls, (B) produce an operational definition of Long COVID in CYP, and (C) establish its prevalence in CYP. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A cohort study of SARS-CoV-2-positive CYP aged 11-17 years compared with age, sex and geographically matched SARS-CoV-2 test-negative CYP. CYP aged 11-17 testing positive and negative for SARS-CoV-2 infection will be identified and contacted 3, 6, 12 and 24 months after the test date. Consenting CYP will complete an online questionnaire. We initially planned to recruit 3000 test positives and 3000 test negatives but have since extended our target. Data visualisation techniques will be used to examine trajectories over time for symptoms and variables measured repeatedly, separately by original test status. Summary measures of fatigue and mental health dimensions will be generated using dimension reduction methods such as latent variables/latent class/principal component analysis methods. Cross-tabulation of collected and derived variables against test status and discriminant analysis will help operationalise preliminary definitions of Long COVID. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Research Ethics Committee approval granted. Data will be stored in secure Public Health England servers or University College London's Data Safe Haven. Risks of harm will be minimised by providing information on where to seek support. Results will be published on a preprint server followed by journal publication, with reuse of articles under a CC BY licence. Data will be published with protection against identification when there are small frequencies involved. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN34804192; Pre-results.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Adolescent , COVID-19/complications , Child , Cohort Studies , Humans , Prevalence , SARS-CoV-2
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