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Preprint in English | Other preprints | ID: ppcovidwho-294499


The functional relationship between neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) and protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection and disease remains unclear. We jointly estimated protection against infection and disease progression following natural infection and vaccination from meta-study data. We find that NAbs are strongly correlated with prevention of infection and that any history of NAbs will stimulate immune memory to moderate disease progression. We also find that natural infection provides stronger protection than vaccination for the same level of NAbs, noting that infection itself, unlike vaccination, carries risk of morbidity and mortality, and that our most potent vaccines induce much higher NAb levels than natural infection. These results suggest that while sterilizing immunity may decay, we expect protection against severe disease to be robust over time and in the face of immune-evading variants.

PLoS Comput Biol ; 17(7): e1009149, 2021 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1325366


The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for models that can project epidemic trends, explore intervention scenarios, and estimate resource needs. Here we describe the methodology of Covasim (COVID-19 Agent-based Simulator), an open-source model developed to help address these questions. Covasim includes country-specific demographic information on age structure and population size; realistic transmission networks in different social layers, including households, schools, workplaces, long-term care facilities, and communities; age-specific disease outcomes; and intrahost viral dynamics, including viral-load-based transmissibility. Covasim also supports an extensive set of interventions, including non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as physical distancing and protective equipment; pharmaceutical interventions, including vaccination; and testing interventions, such as symptomatic and asymptomatic testing, isolation, contact tracing, and quarantine. These interventions can incorporate the effects of delays, loss-to-follow-up, micro-targeting, and other factors. Implemented in pure Python, Covasim has been designed with equal emphasis on performance, ease of use, and flexibility: realistic and highly customized scenarios can be run on a standard laptop in under a minute. In collaboration with local health agencies and policymakers, Covasim has already been applied to examine epidemic dynamics and inform policy decisions in more than a dozen countries in Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe, and North America.

COVID-19 , Models, Biological , SARS-CoV-2 , Systems Analysis , Basic Reproduction Number , COVID-19/etiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19/transmission , COVID-19 Testing , COVID-19 Vaccines , Computational Biology , Computer Simulation , Contact Tracing , Disease Progression , Hand Disinfection , Host Microbial Interactions , Humans , Masks , Mathematical Concepts , Pandemics , Physical Distancing , Quarantine , Software
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 2993, 2021 05 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1237998


Initial COVID-19 containment in the United States focused on limiting mobility, including school and workplace closures. However, these interventions have had enormous societal and economic costs. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility of an alternative control strategy, test-trace-quarantine: routine testing of primarily symptomatic individuals, tracing and testing their known contacts, and placing their contacts in quarantine. We perform this analysis using Covasim, an open-source agent-based model, which has been calibrated to detailed demographic, mobility, and epidemiological data for the Seattle region from January through June 2020. With current levels of mask use and schools remaining closed, we find that high but achievable levels of testing and tracing are sufficient to maintain epidemic control even under a return to full workplace and community mobility and with low vaccine coverage. The easing of mobility restrictions in June 2020 and subsequent scale-up of testing and tracing programs through September provided real-world validation of our predictions. Although we show that test-trace-quarantine can control the epidemic in both theory and practice, its success is contingent on high testing and tracing rates, high quarantine compliance, relatively short testing and tracing delays, and moderate to high mask use. Thus, in order for test-trace-quarantine to control transmission with a return to high mobility, strong performance in all aspects of the program is required.

COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19/transmission , Contact Tracing/methods , Quarantine/methods , Humans , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , United States