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1.
Front Public Health ; 10: 856189, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1785453

ABSTRACT

To assess the course of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions, the number of reported positive test results is frequently used as an estimate of the true number of population-wide infections. We conducted a retrospective observational analysis of patient data of the Corona Testing Unit (CTU) in Munich, Bavaria, Germany between January 27th, and September 30th, 2020. We analyzed the course of daily patient numbers over time by fitting a negative binomial model with multiple breakpoints. Additionally, we investigated possible influencing factors on patient numbers and characteristics by literature review of policy papers and key informant interviews with individuals involved in the set-up of the CTU. The 3,963 patients included were mostly young (median age: 34, interquartile range: 27-48), female (66.2%), and working in the healthcare sector (77%). For these, 5,314 real-time RT-PCR tests were conducted with 157 (2.94%) positive results. The overall curve of daily tests and positive results fits the re-ported state-wide incidence in large parts but shows multiple breakpoints with considerable trend changes. These can be most fittingly attributed to testing capacities and -strategies and individual risk behavior, rather than public health measures. With the large impact on patient numbers and pre-test probabilities of various strategic and operational factors, we consider the derived re-ported incidence as a poor measurement to base policy decisions on. Testing units should be prepared to encounter these fluctuations with a quickly adaptable structure.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Adult , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19 Testing , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Public Health , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2
2.
EuropePMC; 2021.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-319369

ABSTRACT

Background: Population-based studies investigating the dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic are needed. Here, we report on baseline findings from April through June 2020 of a prospective cohort study in Munich, Germany.Methods: We drew a representative sample of 2994 private households. The 5313 participating household members 14 years and older completed questionnaires and provided blood samples. SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity was defined as Roche N pan-Ig ≥ 0·4218. We adjusted the prevalence for the sampling design, sensitivity, and specificity. We investigated risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity and geospatial transmission patterns by generalized linear mixed models and permutation tests.Findings: Seropositivity for SARS-CoV-2 specific antibodies was 1·82% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1·28-2·37%) as compared to 0·46% PCR-positive cases officially registered in Munich. Loss of the sense of smell or taste was associated with seropositivity (odds ratio (OR) 47·4;95% CI 7·2-307·0) and infections clustered within households. Participants suffering from respiratory allergies (OR 2·7;95% CI 0·9-8·6) and working in high-risk jobs (OR 2·0;95% CI 0·5-6·7) showed non-significantly increased odds for SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity.Interpretation: Applying a validated assay, we demonstrate a low SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in the Munich population 14 years and older towards the end of the first pandemic wave. However, we noted official sub-registration at this early stage of the pandemic.Funding: Bavarian State Ministry of Science and the Arts, University Hospital of LMU Munich, Helmholtz Centre Munich, University of Bonn, and University of Bielefeld.Declaration of Interests: FF, TF, DM, LO, and VT report grants from the Bavarian State Ministry of Science and the Arts during the conduct oft he study. TF reports grants from the University Hospital of LMU Munich, Helmholtz Center Munich, University of Bonn, University of Bielefeld, and German Ministry for Education and Research during the conduct of the study. JH reports grants from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research during the conduct of the study. MH and AW report personal fees and non-financial support, LO and MP report non-financial support from Roche Diagnostics. MH, LO, MP, and AW report non-financial support from Euroimmun, Viramed, and Mikrogen. MH, MP, and AW report grants, non-financial support, and other from German Center for Infection Research (DZIF). FF, MH, LO, MP, VT, and AW report grants and non-financial support from the Government of Bavaria. MH, LO, MP, and AW report non-financial support from BMW, Mercedes Benz, Munich Police, and Accenture. MH and AW report personal fees and non-financial support from Dr. Box Betrobox during the conduct of the study. LO and MP report non-financial support from Dr. Box Betrobox. MH and AW have a patent Sample System for Sputum Diagnostics of SARS-CoV-2 pending. DM reports to be a a sub-investigator on a Phase I SARS-CoV-2 vaccine trial and on a Phase I rabies vaccine trial, both sponsored by CureVac AG. MP and AW report non-financial support from Dr. Becker MVZ. VT reports support from CureVac AG outside the submitted work. AW reports personal fees and other from Haeraeus Sensors. AW reports non-financial support from Bruker Daltronics outside the submitted work. AW is involved in other different patents and companies not in relation with the serology of SARS-CoV-2. All other authors report nothing to disclose.Ethics Approval Statement: Prior to study initiation, this study had been approved by therespective Institutional Review Board.

3.
BMC Infect Dis ; 21(1): 925, 2021 Sep 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1398842

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In the 2nd year of the COVID-19 pandemic, knowledge about the dynamics of the infection in the general population is still limited. Such information is essential for health planners, as many of those infected show no or only mild symptoms and thus, escape the surveillance system. We therefore aimed to describe the course of the pandemic in the Munich general population living in private households from April 2020 to January 2021. METHODS: The KoCo19 baseline study took place from April to June 2020 including 5313 participants (age 14 years and above). From November 2020 to January 2021, we could again measure SARS-CoV-2 antibody status in 4433 of the baseline participants (response 83%). Participants were offered a self-sampling kit to take a capillary blood sample (dry blood spot; DBS). Blood was analysed using the Elecsys® Anti-SARS-CoV-2 assay (Roche). Questionnaire information on socio-demographics and potential risk factors assessed at baseline was available for all participants. In addition, follow-up information on health-risk taking behaviour and number of personal contacts outside the household (N = 2768) as well as leisure time activities (N = 1263) were collected in summer 2020. RESULTS: Weighted and adjusted (for specificity and sensitivity) SARS-CoV-2 sero-prevalence at follow-up was 3.6% (95% CI 2.9-4.3%) as compared to 1.8% (95% CI 1.3-3.4%) at baseline. 91% of those tested positive at baseline were also antibody-positive at follow-up. While sero-prevalence increased from early November 2020 to January 2021, no indication of geospatial clustering across the city of Munich was found, although cases clustered within households. Taking baseline result and time to follow-up into account, men and participants in the age group 20-34 years were at the highest risk of sero-positivity. In the sensitivity analyses, differences in health-risk taking behaviour, number of personal contacts and leisure time activities partly explained these differences. CONCLUSION: The number of citizens in Munich with SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was still below 5% during the 2nd wave of the pandemic. Antibodies remained present in the majority of SARS-CoV-2 sero-positive baseline participants. Besides age and sex, potentially confounded by differences in behaviour, no major risk factors could be identified. Non-pharmaceutical public health measures are thus still important.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Follow-Up Studies , Germany/epidemiology , Humans , Infant, Newborn , Male , SARS-CoV-2
5.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 18(7)2021 03 30.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1160500

ABSTRACT

Given the large number of mild or asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 cases, only population-based studies can provide reliable estimates of the magnitude of the pandemic. We therefore aimed to assess the sero-prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the Munich general population after the first wave of the pandemic. For this purpose, we drew a representative sample of 2994 private households and invited household members 14 years and older to complete questionnaires and to provide blood samples. SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity was defined as Roche N pan-Ig ≥ 0.4218. We adjusted the prevalence for the sampling design, sensitivity, and specificity. We investigated risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity and geospatial transmission patterns by generalized linear mixed models and permutation tests. Seropositivity for SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies was 1.82% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.28-2.37%) as compared to 0.46% PCR-positive cases officially registered in Munich. Loss of the sense of smell or taste was associated with seropositivity (odds ratio (OR) 47.4; 95% CI 7.2-307.0) and infections clustered within households. By this first population-based study on SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in a large German municipality not affected by a superspreading event, we could show that at least one in four cases in private households was reported and known to the health authorities. These results will help authorities to estimate the true burden of disease in the population and to take evidence-based decisions on public health measures.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Coronavirus Infections , Humans , Prevalence , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2
6.
Flugmedizin Tropenmedizin Reisemedizin ; 27(04):163-197, 2020.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-947571

ABSTRACT

Gegenwartig werden vielfach die Regelungen zur Eindammung der SARS-CoV-2-Pandemie wieder zuruckgenommen, auch mit dem Wunsch, Urlaubsreisen als Wirtschaftsfaktor wiederzubeleben. Dabei werden Kreuzfahrten besonders kritisch beurteilt, was die Gefahrdung von Passagieren und Crew durch COVID-19 angeht. Das liegt zum einen an der relativen Enge der Unterbringung und Versorgung an Bord, zum anderen an dem unglucklichen Beispiel der Diamond Princess", der ab 03.02.2020 in Yokohama/Japan trotz COVID-19-Fallen an Bord keine Evakuierung samtlicher Passagiere gestattet wurde .

7.
Dtsch Med Wochenschr ; 145(15): 1051-1056, 2020 Jul.
Article in German | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-724790

ABSTRACT

The control and management of infection with the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus requires multidisciplinary work between specialists on all levels. This article aims to provide an overview of the current knowledge of COVID-19 from the view of infectious diseases physicians including all the uncertainties of our understanding of the pathogenesis and immunity.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections , Infectious Disease Medicine , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral , COVID-19 , Humans , Physicians , SARS-CoV-2
8.
Dtsch Med Wochenschr ; 145(15): e95, 2020 07.
Article in German | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-711891
9.
Nature ; 581(7809): 465-469, 2020 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-23868

ABSTRACT

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an acute infection of the respiratory tract that emerged in late 20191,2. Initial outbreaks in China involved 13.8% of cases with severe courses, and 6.1% of cases with critical courses3. This severe presentation may result from the virus using a virus receptor that is expressed predominantly in the lung2,4; the same receptor tropism is thought to have determined the pathogenicity-but also aided in the control-of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 20035. However, there are reports of cases of COVID-19 in which the patient shows mild upper respiratory tract symptoms, which suggests the potential for pre- or oligosymptomatic transmission6-8. There is an urgent need for information on virus replication, immunity and infectivity in specific sites of the body. Here we report a detailed virological analysis of nine cases of COVID-19 that provides proof of active virus replication in tissues of the upper respiratory tract. Pharyngeal virus shedding was very high during the first week of symptoms, with a peak at 7.11 × 108 RNA copies per throat swab on day 4. Infectious virus was readily isolated from samples derived from the throat or lung, but not from stool samples-in spite of high concentrations of virus RNA. Blood and urine samples never yielded virus. Active replication in the throat was confirmed by the presence of viral replicative RNA intermediates in the throat samples. We consistently detected sequence-distinct virus populations in throat and lung samples from one patient, proving independent replication. The shedding of viral RNA from sputum outlasted the end of symptoms. Seroconversion occurred after 7 days in 50% of patients (and by day 14 in all patients), but was not followed by a rapid decline in viral load. COVID-19 can present as a mild illness of the upper respiratory tract. The confirmation of active virus replication in the upper respiratory tract has implications for the containment of COVID-19.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus/immunology , Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification , Coronavirus Infections/immunology , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Hospitalization , Pneumonia, Viral/immunology , Pneumonia, Viral/virology , Seroconversion , Virus Replication , Antibodies, Viral/analysis , Antibodies, Viral/immunology , Base Sequence , Betacoronavirus/genetics , Betacoronavirus/pathogenicity , Blood/virology , COVID-19 , COVID-19 Testing , Clinical Laboratory Techniques , Coronavirus Envelope Proteins , Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis , Feces/chemistry , Feces/virology , Humans , Immunoglobulin G/analysis , Immunoglobulin G/immunology , Immunoglobulin M/analysis , Immunoglobulin M/immunology , Lung/virology , Pandemics , Pharynx/virology , Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis , Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide/genetics , RNA, Viral/analysis , SARS-CoV-2 , Sputum/virology , Urine/virology , Viral Envelope Proteins/genetics , Viral Load/immunology , Virus Shedding
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