Scarcity nationalism during COVID-19: Identifying the impact on trade costs.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries used export and import policy as a tool to expand the availability of scarce critical medical products in the domestic market (scarcity nationalism). This paper assesses the direct and indirect (via trade in intermediates) increases in trade costs of critical medical goods resulting from these uncooperative policies. The results show that scarcity nationalism led to substantial increases in trade costs between February 2020 and December 2021 for most COVID-19 critical medical products, particularly garments (for example, face masks) and ventilators. The exception is vaccines, which saw a reduction in trade costs, which, however, was driven by the reduction in indirect trade costs for high-income countries, consistent with the view of a COVID-19 vaccine production club.

Natural Disasters and the Reshaping of Global Value Chains

To understand the longer-term consequences of natural disasters for global value chains, this paper examines trade in the automobile and electronic sectors after the 2011 earthquake in Japan. Contrary to widespread expectations, we find that the shock did not lead to reshoring, nearshoring, or diversification across non-Japanese suppliers;and trade in intermediate products was disrupted less than trade in final goods. Imports did shift to new suppliers, especially where dependence on Japan was greater. But production relocated to developing countries rather than to other top exporters, and to larger countries. The results, showing relative inertia in intermediate goods and the dominance of economic fundamentals (cost and scale) in determining sourcing decisions, may help us understand supply chain adjustment after other natural disasters, like the COVID-19 pandemic. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of IMF Economic Review is the property of Macmillan Publishers Ltd. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Natural Disasters and the Reshaping of Global Value Chains

To understand the longer-term consequences of natural disasters for global value chains, this paper examines trade in the automobile and electronic sectors after the 2011 earthquake in Japan. Contrary to widespread expectations, we find that the shock did not lead to reshoring, nearshoring, or diversification across non-Japanese suppliers;and trade in intermediate products was disrupted less than trade in final goods. Imports did shift to new suppliers, especially where dependence on Japan was greater. But production relocated to developing countries rather than to other top exporters, and to larger countries. The results, showing relative inertia in intermediate goods and the dominance of economic fundamentals (cost and scale) in determining sourcing decisions, may help us understand supply chain adjustment after other natural disasters, like the COVID-19 pandemic.

Trade policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic crisis: Evidence from a new data set.

This paper presents new high-frequency data on trade policy changes targeting medical and food products since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, documenting how countries used trade policy instruments in response to the health crisis on a week-by-week basis. The data set reveals a rapid increase in trade policy activism in February and March 2020 in tandem with the rise in COVID-19 cases but also uncovers extensive heterogeneity across countries in both their use of trade policy and the types of measures used. Some countries acted to restrict exports and facilitate imports, others targeted only one of these margins, and many did not use trade policy at all. The observed heterogeneity suggests numerous research questions on the drivers of trade policy responses to COVID-19, on the effects of these measures on trade and prices of critical products, and on the role of trade agreements in influencing the use of trade policy.

COVID-19 and Food Protectionism: The Impact of the Pandemic and Export Restrictions on World Food Markets

From the Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] and uncooperative trade policies on world food markets. It quantifies the initial shock due to the pandemic under the assumption that products that are more labor intensive in production are more affected through workers' morbidity and containment policies. It then estimates how escalating export restrictions to shield domestic food markets could magnify the initial shock. The analysis shows that, in the quarter following the outbreak of the pandemic, the global export supply of food could decrease between 6 and 20 percent and global prices increase between 2 and 6 percent on average. Escalating export restrictions would multiply the initial shock by a factor of 3, with world food prices rising by up to 18 percent on average. Import food dependent countries, which are in large majority developing and least developed countries, would be most affected.COVID-19 (Disease);Epidemics;Disaster recovery;World Bank;Food supply