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1.
Stat Methods Med Res ; 31(10): 1976-1991, 2022 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1896268

ABSTRACT

Competing risk analyses have been widely used for the analysis of in-hospital mortality in which hospital discharge is considered as a competing event. The competing risk model assumes that more than one cause of failure is possible, but there is only one outcome of interest and all others serve as competing events. However, hospital discharge and in-hospital death are two outcomes resulting from the same disease process and patients whose disease conditions were stabilized so that inpatient care was no longer needed were discharged. We therefore propose to use cure models, in which hospital discharge is treated as an observed "cure" of the disease. We consider both the mixture cure model and the promotion time cure model and extend the models to allow cure status to be known for those who were discharged from the hospital. An EM algorithm is developed for the mixture cure model. We also show that the competing risk model, which treats hospital discharge as a competing event, is equivalent to a promotion time cure model. Both cure models were examined in simulation studies and were applied to a recent cohort of COVID-19 in-hospital patients with diabetes. The promotion time model shows that statin use improved the overall survival; the mixture cure model shows that while statin use reduced the in-hospital mortality rate among the susceptible, it improved the cure probability only for older but not younger patients. Both cure models show that treatment was more beneficial among older patients.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors , Computer Simulation , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Models, Statistical
2.
ASAIO J ; 2022 Jun 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1878844

ABSTRACT

Anticoagulation during extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) for Coronovirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) can be performed by direct or indirect thrombin inhibitors but differences in outcomes with these agents are uncertain. A retrospective, multicenter study was conducted. All consecutive adult patients with COVID-19 placed on ECMO between March 1, 2020 and April 30, 2021 in participating centers, were included. Patients were divided in groups receiving either a direct thrombin inhibitor (DTI) or an indirect thrombin inhibitor such as unfractionated heparin (UFH). Overall, 455 patients with COVID-19 from 17 centers were placed on ECMO during the study period. Forty-four patients did not receive anticoagulation. Of the remaining 411 patients, DTI was used in 160 (39%) whereas 251 (61%) received UFH. At 90-days, in-hospital mortality was 50% (DTI) and 61% (UFH), adjusted hazard ratio: 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49-1.32. Deep vein thrombosis [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 2.60, 95% CI: 0.90-6.65], ischemic (aOR: 1.58, 95% CI: 0.18-14.0), and hemorrhagic (aOR:1.22, 95% CI: 0.39-3.87) stroke were similar with DTI in comparison to UFH. Bleeding requiring transfusion was lower in patients receiving DTI (aOR: 0.40, 95% CI: 0.18-0.87). Anticoagulants that directly inhibit thrombin are associated with similar in-hospital mortality, stroke, and venous thrombosis and do not confer a higher risk of clinical bleeding in comparison to conventional heparin during ECMO for COVID-19.

3.
BMJ Open ; 12(2): e058171, 2022 02 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1799217

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: COVID-19 first struck New York City in the spring of 2020, resulting in an unprecedented strain on our healthcare system and triggering multiple changes in public health policy governing hospital operations as well as therapeutic approaches to COVID-19. We examined inpatient mortality at our centre throughout the course of the pandemic. METHODS: This is a retrospective chart review of clinical characteristics, treatments and outcome data of all patients admitted with COVID-19 from 1 March 2020 to 28 February 2021. Patients were grouped into 3-month quartiles. Hospital strain was assessed as per cent of occupied beds based on a normal bed capacity of 1491. RESULTS: Inpatient mortality decreased from 25.0% in spring to 10.8% over the course of the year. During this time, use of remdesivir, steroids and anticoagulants increased; use of hydroxychloroquine and other antibiotics decreased. Daily bed occupancy ranged from 62% to 118%. In a multivariate model with all year's data controlling for demographics, comorbidities and acuity of illness, percentage of bed occupancy was associated with increased 30-day in-hospital mortality of patients with COVID-19 (0.7% mortality increase for each 1% increase in bed occupancy; HR 1.007, CI 1.001 to 1.013, p=0.004) CONCLUSION: Inpatient mortality from COVID-19 was associated with bed occupancy. Early reduction in epicentre hospital bed occupancy to accommodate acutely ill and resource-intensive patients should be a critical component in the strategic planning for future pandemics.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Bed Occupancy , Cohort Studies , Hospital Mortality , Hospitals , Humans , Inpatients , Intensive Care Units , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2
4.
Artif Organs ; 46(8): 1659-1668, 2022 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1701591

ABSTRACT

In a multicenter, retrospective analysis of 435 patients with refractory COVID-19 placed on V-V ECMO, cannulation by a single, dual-lumen catheter with directed outflow to the pulmonary artery was associated with lower inpatient mortality.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation , COVID-19/therapy , Catheterization/methods , Catheters , Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation/adverse effects , Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation/methods , Humans , Retrospective Studies
5.
J Cardiothorac Vasc Anesth ; 36(8 Pt B): 2935-2941, 2022 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1665734

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: Cardiac injury has been reported in up to 20%-to-30% of patients with COVID-19, and severe disease can lead to cardiopulmonary failure. The role of mechanical circulatory support in these patients remains undetermined. The authors here aimed to determine the characteristics and outcomes of patients with COVID-19 requiring venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA ECMO) or veno-arterial-venous (VAV) ECMO support. DESIGN AND SETTING: A multicenter, retrospective case series. PARTICIPANTS: The cohort consisted of adult patients (18 years of age and older) with confirmed COVID-19 requiring VA ECMO or VAV ECMO support in the period from March 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021. Outcomes were recorded until July 31, 2021. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: To show factors related to death during hospitalization, patients were grouped as survivors and nonsurvivors. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to estimate 90-day in-hospital mortality. Overall, 37 patients from 12 centers comprised the study cohort. The median patient age was 44 years old (interquartile range [IQR], 35-52), and 12 (32%) were female patients. The duration of ECMO support ranged from 2-to-132 days. At the end of the follow-up period, 13 patients (35%) were discharged or transferred alive, and 24 patients (65%) died during the hospitalization. The cumulative in-hospital mortality at 90 days was 64% (95% confidence interval: 47-81). During the time from intubation to VA ECMO or VAV ECMO initiation (1 day [IQR 0-7.5] v 6 days [IQR 2.5-14], p = 0.0383), body mass index (32 [IQR 26-36] v 37 [IQR 33-40], p = 0.009), and baseline C-reactive protein (7.15 v 38.9 mg/dL, p = 0.009) were higher in those who expired. CONCLUSION: Only one-third of the patients with COVID-19 requiring VA ECMO or VAV ECMO survived to discharge. Close monitoring of at-risk patients with early initiation of ECMO with circulatory support may further improve outcomes.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation , Adolescent , Adult , COVID-19/therapy , Female , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Kaplan-Meier Estimate , Male , Retrospective Studies
7.
Int J Vet Sci Med ; 9(1): 59-61, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1510851

ABSTRACT

Bats are considered ideal reservoirs for zoonotic viruses with emerging capabilities over the past two decades and spotted evidence points out that they may play a role as a reservoir host for SARS-CoV-2. To investigate the possible role of bats as part of SARS-CoV-2 anthropozoonotic spill-over infections in Egypt, a total of 800 samples obtained from 200 Egyptian fruit bats (Rousettus aegyptiacus) were tested for SARS-CoV-2 using quantitative RT-PCR assay (RT-qPCR). RT-qPCR analysis of RNA extracted from bat tissues showed no positive results for SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid. These findings suggest that during the study period, the Rousettus aegyptiacus bat was not a reservoir or amplifying host for SARS-CoV-2 infection in Egypt. The lack of SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid in Egyptian fruit bats is thought to make a significant contribution to SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology.

8.
J Cardiovasc Dev Dis ; 8(7)2021 Jun 30.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1288910

ABSTRACT

AIMS: The association between cardiovascular diseases, such as coronary artery disease and hypertension, and worse outcomes in COVID-19 patients has been previously demonstrated. However, the effect of a prior diagnosis of heart failure (HF) with reduced or preserved left ventricular ejection fraction on COVID-19 outcomes has not yet been established. METHODS AND RESULTS: We retrospectively studied all adult patients with COVID-19 admitted to our institution from March 1st to 2nd May 2020. Patients were grouped based on the presence or absence of HF. We used competing events survival models to examine the association between HF and death, need for intubation, or need for dialysis during hospitalization. Of 4043 patients admitted with COVID-19, 335 patients (8.3%) had a prior diagnosis of HF. Patients with HF were older, had lower body mass index, and a significantly higher burden of co-morbidities compared to patients without HF, yet the two groups presented to the hospital with similar clinical severity and similar markers of systemic inflammation. Patients with HF had a higher cumulative in-hospital mortality compared to patients without HF (49.0% vs. 27.2%, p < 0.001) that remained statistically significant (HR = 1.383, p = 0.001) after adjustment for age, body mass index, and comorbidities, as well as after propensity score matching (HR = 1.528, p = 0.001). Notably, no differences in mortality, need for mechanical ventilation, or renal replacement therapy were observed among HF patients with preserved or reduced ejection fraction. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of HF is a risk factor of death, substantially increasing in-hospital mortality in patients admitted with COVID-19.

9.
J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg ; 163(6): 2107-2116.e6, 2022 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1233517

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To determine characteristics, outcomes, and clinical factors associated with death in patients with COVID-19 requiring extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) support. METHODS: A multicenter, retrospective cohort study was conducted. The cohort consisted of adult patients (18 years of age and older) requiring ECMO in the period from March 1, 2020, to September 30, 2020. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality after ECMO initiation assessed with a time to event analysis at 90 days. Multivariable Cox proportional regression was used to determine factors associated with in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: Overall, 292 patients from 17 centers comprised the study cohort. Patients were 49 (interquartile range, 39-57) years old and 81 (28%) were female. At the end of the follow-up period, 19 (6%) patients were still receiving ECMO, 25 (9%) were discontinued from ECMO but remained hospitalized, 135 (46%) were discharged or transferred alive, and 113 (39%) died during the hospitalization. The cumulative in-hospital mortality at 90 days was 42% (95% confidence interval [CI], 36%-47%). Factors associated with in-hospital mortality were age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.31; 95% CI, 1.06-1.61 per 10 years), renal dysfunction measured according to serum creatinine level (aHR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.01-1.45), and cardiopulmonary resuscitation before ECMO placement (aHR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.01-3.46). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with severe COVID-19 necessitating ECMO support, in-hospital mortality occurred in fewer than half of the cases. ECMO might serve as a viable modality for terminally ill patients with refractory COVID-19.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation , Respiratory Distress Syndrome , Adolescent , Adult , COVID-19/therapy , Child , Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation/adverse effects , Female , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies
10.
Clin Transplant ; 35(7): e14329, 2021 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1203845

ABSTRACT

The clinical spectrum of COVID-19 in heart transplant recipients has not been fully defined, because asymptomatic and sub-clinical cases are difficult to capture. Seroprevalence surveys are an important tool to identify not just cases that have come to clinical attention, but all previously infected recipients. We performed a seroprevalence survey of the adult heart transplant program at a large New York City Hospital System. A total of 232 (87% of recipients being followed) subjects were tested, of whom 37 (15.9%) were found to be previously infected. This is comparable to the overall rate of prior infection in the NYC metro area. Disease course tended to be more severe than in the general population; however, this was at least partially driven by traditional risk factors of age and comorbidities. Lastly, 9 of 10 recipients who were initially found to be PCR positive subsequently tested positive for antibodies, confirming the ability of this population to mount a humoral response. In conclusion, prevalence of COVID-19 in heart transplant recipients on immunosuppression was comparable to that in the general population of NYC, and 90% of those with an initially positive viral swab developed antibodies. In those who are infected, disease course tends to be more severe.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Heart Transplantation , Adult , Heart Transplantation/adverse effects , Humans , New York City/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , Seroepidemiologic Studies , Transplant Recipients
11.
J Am Heart Assoc ; 9(24): e018475, 2020 12 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-970883

ABSTRACT

Background Severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is characterized by a proinflammatory state with high mortality. Statins have anti-inflammatory effects and may attenuate the severity of COVID-19. Methods and Results An observational study of all consecutive adult patients with COVID-19 admitted to a single center located in Bronx, New York, was conducted from March 1, 2020, to May 2, 2020. Patients were grouped as those who did and those who did not receive a statin, and in-hospital mortality was compared by competing events regression. In addition, propensity score matching and inverse probability treatment weighting were used in survival models to examine the association between statin use and death during hospitalization. A total of 4252 patients were admitted with COVID-19. Diabetes mellitus modified the association between statin use and in-hospital mortality. Patients with diabetes mellitus on a statin (n=983) were older (69±11 versus 67±14 years; P<0.01), had lower inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein, 10.2; interquartile range, 4.5-18.4 versus 12.9; interquartile range, 5.9-21.4 mg/dL; P<0.01) and reduced cumulative in-hospital mortality (24% versus 39%; P<0.01) than those not on a statin (n=1283). No difference in hospital mortality was noted in patients without diabetes mellitus on or off statin (20% versus 21%; P=0.82). Propensity score matching (hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.83-0.94; P<0.01) and inverse probability treatment weighting (HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.84-0.92; P<0.01) showed a 12% lower risk of death during hospitalization for statin users than for nonusers. Conclusions Statin use was associated with reduced in-hospital mortality from COVID-19 in patients with diabetes mellitus. These findings, if validated, may further reemphasize administration of statins to patients with diabetes mellitus during the COVID-19 era.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/mortality , Diabetes Mellitus/mortality , Dyslipidemias/drug therapy , Hospital Mortality , Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors/therapeutic use , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/therapy , Diabetes Mellitus/diagnosis , Dyslipidemias/diagnosis , Dyslipidemias/mortality , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , New York/epidemiology , Prognosis , Protective Factors , Retrospective Studies , Risk Assessment , Risk Factors , Time Factors
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