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1.
Lancet Reg Health Am ; 6: 100147, 2022 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1587087

ABSTRACT

Background: The fourth wave of COVID-19 pandemic peaked in the US at 160,000 daily cases, concentrated primarily in southern states. As the Delta variant has continued to spread, we evaluated the impact of accelerated vaccination on reducing hospitalization and deaths across northeastern and southern regions of the US census divisions. Methods: We used an age-stratified agent-based model of COVID-19 to simulate outbreaks in all states within two U.S. regions. The model was calibrated using reported incidence in each state from October 1, 2020 to August 31, 2021, and parameterized with characteristics of the circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants and state-specific daily vaccination rate. We then projected the number of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths that would be averted between September 2021 and the end of March 2022 if the states increased their daily vaccination rate by 20 or 50% compared to maintaining the status quo pace observed during August 2021. Findings: A 50% increase in daily vaccine doses administered to previously unvaccinated individuals is projected to prevent a total of 30,727 hospitalizations and 11,937 deaths in the two regions between September 2021 and the end of March 2022. Southern states were projected to have a higher weighted average number of hospitalizations averted (18.8) and lives saved (8.3) per 100,000 population, compared to the weighted average of hospitalizations (12.4) and deaths (2.7) averted in northeastern states. On a per capita basis, a 50% increase in daily vaccinations is expected to avert the most hospitalizations in Kentucky (56.7 hospitalizations per 100,000 averted with 95% CrI: 45.56 - 69.9) and prevent the most deaths in Mississippi, (22.1 deaths per 100,000 population prevented with 95% CrI: 18.0 - 26.9). Interpretation: Accelerating progress to population-level immunity by raising the daily pace of vaccination would prevent substantial hospitalizations and deaths in the US, even in those states that have passed a Delta-driven peak in infections. Funding: This study was supported by The Commonwealth Fund. SMM acknowledges the support from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research [OV4 - 170643, COVID-19 Rapid Research] and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling, MfPH grant. MCF acknowledges support from the National Institutes of Health (5 K01 AI141576).

2.
Vaccine ; 40(4): 562-567, 2022 Jan 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1560814

ABSTRACT

Recent data indicates increasing hesitancy towards both COVID-19 and influenza vaccination. We studied attitudes towards COVID-19 booster, influenza, and combination influenza-COVID-19 booster vaccines in a nationally representative sample of US adults between May and June 2021 (n = 12,887). We used pre-qualification quotes to ensure adequate sample sizes for minority populations. Overall vaccine acceptance was 45% for a COVID-19 booster alone, 58% for an influenza vaccine alone, and 50% for a combination vaccine. Logistic regression showed lower acceptance among female, Black/African American, Native American/American Indian, and rural respondents. Higher acceptance was found among those with college and post-graduate degrees. Despite these differences, our results suggest that a combination vaccine may provide a convenient method of dual vaccination that may increase COVID-19 vaccination coverage.

4.
Lancet Reg Health Am ; 5: 100085, 2022 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1487880

ABSTRACT

Background: Following the start of COVID-19 vaccination in New York City (NYC), cases have declined over 10-fold from the outbreak peak in January 2020, despite the emergence of highly transmissible variants. We evaluated the impact of NYC's vaccination campaign on saving lives as well as averting hospitalizations and cases. Methods: We used an age-stratified agent-based model of COVID-19 to include transmission dynamics of Alpha, Gamma, Delta and Iota variants as identified in NYC. The model was calibrated and fitted to reported incidence in NYC, accounting for the relative transmissibility of each variant and vaccination rollout data. We simulated COVID-19 outbreak in NYC under the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination and compared the resulting disease burden with the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths reported under the actual pace of vaccination. Findings: We found that without vaccination, there would have been a spring-wave of COVID-19 in NYC due to the spread of Alpha and Delta variants. The COVID-19 vaccination campaign in NYC prevented such a wave, and averted 290,467 (95% CrI: 232,551 - 342,664) cases, 48,076 (95% CrI: 42,264 - 53,301) hospitalizations, and 8,508 (95% CrI: 7,374 - 9,543) deaths from December 14, 2020 to July 15, 2021. Interpretation: Our study demonstrates that the vaccination program in NYC was instrumental to substantially reducing the COVID-19 burden and suppressing a surge of cases attributable to more transmissible variants. As the Delta variant sweeps predominantly among unvaccinated individuals, our findings underscore the urgent need to accelerate vaccine uptake and close the vaccination coverage gaps. Funding: This study was supported by The Commonwealth Fund.

7.
Non-conventional | Homeland Security Digital Library, Grey literature | ID: grc-740939

ABSTRACT

From the Introduction: "With more than 4 million confirmed cases and 150,000 deaths as of August, the United States is failing to control the COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic. At a time when many nations are reopening their economies and societies, the U.S. is struggling in its attempts to do the same. To examine the early impact of the pandemic on the well-being of adults in the U.S. and abroad, the Commonwealth Fund joined the survey research firm SSRS to interview 8,259 adults age 18 and older between March and May 2020. It is the latest in the Commonwealth Fund's series of cross-national comparisons featuring the United States and nine other high-income countries that participate in the Fund's annual International Health Policy Survey."

9.
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