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1.
BMJ Open ; 11(11): e055834, 2021 11 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1533051

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: We conducted serosurveillance of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among pregnant women attending their first antenatal care. SETTING: The surveillance was set in one referral hospital in Harar, one district hospital and one health centre located in Haramaya district in rural eastern Ethiopia. PARTICIPANTS: We collected questionnaire data and a blood sample from 3312 pregnant women between 1 April 2020 and 31 March 2021. We selected 1447 blood samples at random and assayed these for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at Hararghe Health Research laboratory using WANTAI SARS-CoV-2 Rapid Test for total immunoglobulin. OUTCOME: We assayed for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and temporal trends in seroprevalence were analysed with a χ2 test for trend and multivariable binomial regression. RESULTS: Among 1447 sera tested, 83 were positive for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies giving a crude seroprevalence of 5.7% (95% CI 4.6% to 7.0%). Of 160 samples tested in April-May 2020, none was seropositive; the first seropositive sample was identified in June and seroprevalence rose steadily thereafter (χ2 test for trend, p=0.003) reaching a peak of 11.8% in February 2021. In the multivariable model, seroprevalence was approximately 3% higher in first-trimester mothers compared with later presentations, and rose by 0.75% (95% CI 0.31% to 1.20%) per month of calendar time. CONCLUSIONS: This clinical convenience sample illustrates the dynamic of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in pregnant women in eastern Ethiopia; infection was rare before June 2020 but it spread in a linear fashion thereafter, rather than following intermittent waves, and reached 10% by the beginning of 2021. After 1 year of surveillance, most pregnant mothers remained susceptible.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Prenatal Care , Antibodies, Viral , Ethiopia/epidemiology , Female , Hospitals, District , Humans , Pregnancy , SARS-CoV-2 , Seroepidemiologic Studies
2.
BMC Med ; 19(1): 35, 2021 02 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1061076

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine measles immunisation and supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) in most countries including Kenya. We assessed the risk of measles outbreaks during the pandemic in Kenya as a case study for the African Region. METHODS: Combining measles serological data, local contact patterns, and vaccination coverage into a cohort model, we predicted the age-adjusted population immunity in Kenya and estimated the probability of outbreaks when contact-reducing COVID-19 interventions are lifted. We considered various scenarios for reduced measles vaccination coverage from April 2020. RESULTS: In February 2020, when a scheduled SIA was postponed, population immunity was close to the herd immunity threshold and the probability of a large outbreak was 34% (8-54). As the COVID-19 contact restrictions are nearly fully eased, from December 2020, the probability of a large measles outbreak will increase to 38% (19-54), 46% (30-59), and 54% (43-64) assuming a 15%, 50%, and 100% reduction in measles vaccination coverage. By December 2021, this risk increases further to 43% (25-56), 54% (43-63), and 67% (59-72) for the same coverage scenarios respectively. However, the increased risk of a measles outbreak following the lifting of all restrictions can be overcome by conducting a SIA with ≥ 95% coverage in under-fives. CONCLUSION: While contact restrictions sufficient for SAR-CoV-2 control temporarily reduce measles transmissibility and the risk of an outbreak from a measles immunity gap, this risk rises rapidly once these restrictions are lifted. Implementing delayed SIAs will be critical for prevention of measles outbreaks given the roll-back of contact restrictions in Kenya.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Measles Vaccine/supply & distribution , Measles/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Adolescent , COVID-19/complications , Child , Child, Preschool , Female , Humans , Immunization Programs , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Kenya/epidemiology , Male , Measles/blood , Measles/complications , Vaccination Coverage
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