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2.
Microbiol Spectr ; 9(2): e0054921, 2021 10 31.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1381170

ABSTRACT

In one year of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, many studies have described the different metabolic changes occurring in COVID-19 patients, linking these alterations to the disease severity. However, a complete metabolic signature of the most severe cases, especially those with a fatal outcome, is still missing. Our study retrospectively analyzes the metabolome profiles of 75 COVID-19 patients with moderate and severe symptoms admitted to Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico (Lombardy Region, Italy) following SARS-CoV-2 infection between March and April 2020. Italy was the first Western country to experience COVID-19, and the Lombardy Region was the epicenter of the Italian COVID-19 pandemic. This cohort shows a higher mortality rate compared to others; therefore, it represents a unique opportunity to investigate the underlying metabolic profiles of the first COVID-19 patients in Italy and to identify the potential biomarkers related to the disease prognosis and fatal outcome. IMPORTANCE Understanding the metabolic alterations occurring during an infection is a key element for identifying potential indicators of the disease prognosis, which are fundamental for developing efficient diagnostic tools and offering the best therapeutic treatment to the patient. Here, exploiting high-throughput metabolomics data, we identified the first metabolic profile associated with a fatal outcome, not correlated with preexisting clinical conditions or the oxygen demand at the moment of diagnosis. Overall, our results contribute to a better understanding of COVID-19-related metabolic disruption and may represent a useful starting point for the identification of independent prognostic factors to be employed in therapeutic practice.


Subject(s)
Blood Chemical Analysis , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/mortality , Energy Metabolism/physiology , Metabolome/physiology , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Biomarkers/blood , Comorbidity , Female , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Prognosis , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2
3.
Intensive Care Med ; 47(9): 995-1008, 2021 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1349283

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To evaluate the daily values and trends over time of relevant clinical, ventilatory and laboratory parameters during the intensive care unit (ICU) stay and their association with outcome in critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19). METHODS: In this retrospective-prospective multicentric study, we enrolled COVID-19 patients admitted to Italian ICUs from February 22 to May 31, 2020. Clinical data were daily recorded. The time course of 18 clinical parameters was evaluated by a polynomial maximum likelihood multilevel linear regression model, while a full joint modeling was fit to study the association with ICU outcome. RESULTS: 1260 consecutive critically ill patients with COVID-19 admitted in 24 ICUs were enrolled. 78% were male with a median age of 63 [55-69] years. At ICU admission, the median ratio of arterial oxygen partial pressure to fractional inspired oxygen (PaO2/FiO2) was 122 [89-175] mmHg. 79% of patients underwent invasive mechanical ventilation. The overall mortality was 34%. Both the daily values and trends of respiratory system compliance, PaO2/FiO2, driving pressure, arterial carbon dioxide partial pressure, creatinine, C-reactive protein, ferritin, neutrophil, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, and platelets were associated with survival, while for lactate, pH, bilirubin, lymphocyte, and urea only the daily values were associated with survival. The trends of PaO2/FiO2, respiratory system compliance, driving pressure, creatinine, ferritin, and C-reactive protein showed a higher association with survival compared to the daily values. CONCLUSION: Daily values or trends over time of parameters associated with acute organ dysfunction, acid-base derangement, coagulation impairment, or systemic inflammation were associated with patient survival.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Critical Illness , Aged , Humans , Intensive Care Units , Italy , Male , Middle Aged , Prospective Studies , Respiration, Artificial , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2
4.
Muscle Nerve ; 64(4): 474-482, 2021 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1321702

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: /AIMS: Patients with neuromuscular disorders (NMDs), including many elderly, immunosuppressed, and disabled individuals, may have been particularly affected during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Lombardy, a COVID-19 high-incidence area between February and May 2020. We aimed to evaluate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the quality of life (QoL) and perceived disease burden of this group of patients. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional phone-based survey study between June 1 and June 14, 2020, on a sample of 240 NMD patients followed at our clinic in Milan, Italy. We asked about perceived NMD burden and QoL before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We collected responses on access to outpatient care and ancillary services. We investigated the presence of symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 infection and confirmed cases. RESULTS: We collected 205 responses: 53 patients (25.9%) reported a subjective worsening of the underlying NMD. QoL measures showed a significant worsening between pre and pandemic time frames (odds ratio, 2.14 95%; confidence interval, 1.82-2.51). Outpatient visits were postponed in more than half of cases (57.1%), with 104 patients (50.7%) experiencing a cancellation of scheduled diagnostic tests. 79 patients (38.5%) reported at least one symptom attributable to COVID-19 infection. Among the 10 patients tested with nasopharyngeal swabs, 6 tested positive and 3 died from respiratory failure, including 2 patients on corticosteroid/ immunosuppressive therapy. DISCUSSION: The COVID-19 pandemic affected QoL and limited access to outpatient care and ancillary services of NMD patients in Lombardy between February and May 2020.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/psychology , Neuromuscular Diseases/epidemiology , Neuromuscular Diseases/psychology , Quality of Life/psychology , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/diagnosis , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Neuromuscular Diseases/diagnosis , Surveys and Questionnaires
7.
Chest ; 160(2): 454-465, 2021 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1184884

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Few small studies have described hospital-acquired infections (HAIs) occurring in patients with COVID-19. RESEARCH QUESTION: What characteristics in critically ill patients with COVID-19 are associated with HAIs and how are HAIs associated with outcomes in these patients? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Multicenter retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data including adult patients with severe COVID-19 admitted to eight Italian hub hospitals from February 20, 2020, through May 20, 2020. Descriptive statistics and univariate and multivariate Weibull regression models were used to assess incidence, microbial cause, resistance patterns, risk factors (ie, demographics, comorbidities, exposure to medication), and impact on outcomes (ie, ICU discharge, length of ICU and hospital stays, and duration of mechanical ventilation) of microbiologically confirmed HAIs. RESULTS: Of the 774 included patients, 359 patients (46%) demonstrated 759 HAIs (44.7 infections/1,000 ICU patient-days; 35% multidrug-resistant [MDR] bacteria). Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP; n = 389 [50%]), bloodstream infections (BSIs; n = 183 [34%]), and catheter-related BSIs (n = 74 [10%]) were the most frequent HAIs, with 26.0 (95% CI, 23.6-28.8) VAPs per 1,000 intubation-days, 11.7 (95% CI, 10.1-13.5) BSIs per 1,000 ICU patient-days, and 4.7 (95% CI, 3.8-5.9) catheter-related BSIs per 1,000 ICU patient-days. Gram-negative bacteria (especially Enterobacterales) and Staphylococcus aureus caused 64% and 28% of cases of VAP, respectively. Variables independently associated with infection were age, positive end expiratory pressure, and treatment with broad-spectrum antibiotics at admission. Two hundred thirty-four patients (30%) died in the ICU (15.3 deaths/1,000 ICU patient-days). Patients with HAIs complicated by septic shock showed an almost doubled mortality rate (52% vs 29%), whereas noncomplicated infections did not affect mortality. HAIs prolonged mechanical ventilation (median, 24 days [interquartile range (IQR), 14-39 days] vs 9 days [IQR, 5-13 days]; P < .001), ICU stay (24 days [IQR, 16-41 days] vs 9 days [IQR, 6-14 days]; P = .003), and hospital stay (42 days [IQR, 25-59 days] vs 23 days [IQR, 13-34 days]; P < .001). INTERPRETATION: Critically ill patients with COVID-19 are at high risk for HAIs, especially VAPs and BSIs resulting from MDR organisms. HAIs prolong mechanical ventilation and hospitalization, and HAIs complicated by septic shock almost double mortality. TRIAL REGISTRY: ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT04388670; URL: www.clinicaltrials.gov.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/complications , Cross Infection/complications , Aged , Critical Illness , Cross Infection/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Pneumonia, Ventilator-Associated/complications , Pneumonia, Ventilator-Associated/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies , Sepsis/complications , Sepsis/epidemiology
8.
ASAIO J ; 67(3): 254-262, 2021 03 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1101913

ABSTRACT

Viscoelastic coagulation monitor (VCM) is a portable device developed to evaluate the viscoelastic properties of whole blood activated by contact with glass. In this study, VCM was employed to analyze the viscoelastic profiles of 36 COVID-19 intensive care patients. Full anticoagulant dose heparin (unfractionated [UFH]; low molecular weight [LMWH]) was administrated to all patients. The association between VCM and laboratory parameters was retrospectively analyzed. The administration of UFH-influenced VCM parameters prolonging clotting time (CT) and clot formation time (CFT) and reducing angle (alpha) and amplitudes of the VCM tracings (A10, A20, and maximum clot firmness [MCF]) compared with LMWH therapy. A tendency toward hypercoagulation was observed by short CT and CFT in patients receiving LMWH. Clotting time was correlated with UFH dose (Spearman's rho = 0.48, p ≤ 0.001), and no correlation was found between CT and LMWH. All VCM tracings failed to show lysis at 30 and 45 minutes, indicating the absence of fibrinolysis. A10, A20, and MCF exhibited very-good to good diagnostic accuracy for detecting platelet count and fibrinogen above the upper reference limit of the laboratory. In conclusion, VCM provided reliable results in COVID-19 patients and was easy to perform with minimal training at the bedside.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/blood , Monitoring, Physiologic/instrumentation , Point-of-Care Systems , Thrombelastography/instrumentation , Adult , Blood Coagulation , COVID-19/complications , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Monitoring, Physiologic/methods , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2 , Thrombelastography/methods , Thrombosis/diagnosis , Thrombosis/virology
9.
JAMA Intern Med ; 180(10): 1345-1355, 2020 10 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1042172

ABSTRACT

Importance: Many patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are critically ill and require care in the intensive care unit (ICU). Objective: To evaluate the independent risk factors associated with mortality of patients with COVID-19 requiring treatment in ICUs in the Lombardy region of Italy. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective, observational cohort study included 3988 consecutive critically ill patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 referred for ICU admission to the coordinating center (Fondazione IRCCS [Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico] Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy) of the COVID-19 Lombardy ICU Network from February 20 to April 22, 2020. Infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 was confirmed by real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction assay of nasopharyngeal swabs. Follow-up was completed on May 30, 2020. Exposures: Baseline characteristics, comorbidities, long-term medications, and ventilatory support at ICU admission. Main Outcomes and Measures: Time to death in days from ICU admission to hospital discharge. The independent risk factors associated with mortality were evaluated with a multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. Results: Of the 3988 patients included in this cohort study, the median age was 63 (interquartile range [IQR] 56-69) years; 3188 (79.9%; 95% CI, 78.7%-81.1%) were men, and 1998 of 3300 (60.5%; 95% CI, 58.9%-62.2%) had at least 1 comorbidity. At ICU admission, 2929 patients (87.3%; 95% CI, 86.1%-88.4%) required invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). The median follow-up was 44 (95% CI, 40-47; IQR, 11-69; range, 0-100) days; median time from symptoms onset to ICU admission was 10 (95% CI, 9-10; IQR, 6-14) days; median length of ICU stay was 12 (95% CI, 12-13; IQR, 6-21) days; and median length of IMV was 10 (95% CI, 10-11; IQR, 6-17) days. Cumulative observation time was 164 305 patient-days. Hospital and ICU mortality rates were 12 (95% CI, 11-12) and 27 (95% CI, 26-29) per 1000 patients-days, respectively. In the subgroup of the first 1715 patients, as of May 30, 2020, 865 (50.4%) had been discharged from the ICU, 836 (48.7%) had died in the ICU, and 14 (0.8%) were still in the ICU; overall, 915 patients (53.4%) died in the hospital. Independent risk factors associated with mortality included older age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.75; 95% CI, 1.60-1.92), male sex (HR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.31-1.88), high fraction of inspired oxygen (Fio2) (HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.10-1.19), high positive end-expiratory pressure (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01-1.06) or low Pao2:Fio2 ratio (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.74-0.87) on ICU admission, and history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.28-2.19), hypercholesterolemia (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.02-1.52), and type 2 diabetes (HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.01-1.39). No medication was independently associated with mortality (angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.97-1.42; angiotensin receptor blockers HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.85-1.29). Conclusions and Relevance: In this retrospective cohort study of critically ill patients admitted to ICUs in Lombardy, Italy, with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, most patients required IMV. The mortality rate and absolute mortality were high.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections , Critical Illness , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Intensive Care Units/statistics & numerical data , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral , Respiration, Artificial/statistics & numerical data , Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification , COVID-19 , COVID-19 Testing , COVID-19 Vaccines , Clinical Laboratory Techniques/methods , Clinical Laboratory Techniques/statistics & numerical data , Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis , Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Critical Illness/mortality , Critical Illness/therapy , Female , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Mortality , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2
10.
J Am Med Inform Assoc ; 27(11): 1721-1726, 2020 11 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1024117

ABSTRACT

Global pandemics call for large and diverse healthcare data to study various risk factors, treatment options, and disease progression patterns. Despite the enormous efforts of many large data consortium initiatives, scientific community still lacks a secure and privacy-preserving infrastructure to support auditable data sharing and facilitate automated and legally compliant federated analysis on an international scale. Existing health informatics systems do not incorporate the latest progress in modern security and federated machine learning algorithms, which are poised to offer solutions. An international group of passionate researchers came together with a joint mission to solve the problem with our finest models and tools. The SCOR Consortium has developed a ready-to-deploy secure infrastructure using world-class privacy and security technologies to reconcile the privacy/utility conflicts. We hope our effort will make a change and accelerate research in future pandemics with broad and diverse samples on an international scale.


Subject(s)
Biomedical Research , Computer Security , Coronavirus Infections , Information Dissemination , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral , Privacy , COVID-19 , Humans , Information Dissemination/ethics , Internationality , Machine Learning
11.
J Autoimmun ; 117: 102595, 2021 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1014585

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Genetic variation at a multigene cluster at chromosome 3p21.31 and the ABO blood group have been associated with the risk of developing severe COVID-19, but the mechanism remains unclear. Complement activation has been associated with COVID-19 severity. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine whether chromosome 3p21.31 and the ABO variants are linked to the activation of the complement cascade in COVID-19 patients. METHODS: We considered 72 unrelated European hospitalized patients with genetic data and evaluation of circulating C5a and soluble terminal complement complex C5b-9 (SC5b-9). Twenty-six (36.1%) patients carried the rs11385942 G>GA variant and 44 (66.1%) non-O blood group associated with increased risk of severe COVID-19. RESULTS: C5a and SC5-b9 plasma levels were higher in rs11385949 GA carriers than in non-carriers (P = 0.041 and P = 0.012, respectively), while C5a levels were higher in non-O group than in O group patients (P = 0.019). The association between rs11385949 and SC5b-9 remained significant after adjustment for ABO and disease severity (P = 0.004) and further correction for C5a (P = 0.018). There was a direct relationship between upper airways viral load and SC5b-9 in carriers of the rs11385949 risk allele (P = 0.032), which was not observed in non-carriers. CONCLUSIONS: The rs11385949 G>GA variant, tagging the chromosome 3 gene cluster variation and predisposing to severe COVID-19, is associated with enhanced complement activation, both with C5a and terminal complement complex, while non-O blood group with C5a levels. These findings provide a link between genetic susceptibility to more severe COVID-19 and complement activation.


Subject(s)
ABO Blood-Group System/genetics , COVID-19/genetics , Chromosomes, Human, Pair 3/genetics , Complement Activation/genetics , Genotype , Multigene Family/genetics , Aged , Complement C5a/genetics , Disease Progression , Female , Gene Frequency , Genetic Association Studies , Genetic Predisposition to Disease , Hospitalization , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide , Risk , SARS-CoV-2/physiology , Viral Load
12.
Intern Emerg Med ; 16(5): 1173-1181, 2021 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-935323

ABSTRACT

To describe radiographic key patterns on Chest X-ray (CXR) in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, assessing the prevalence of radiographic signs of interstitial pneumonia. To evaluate pattern variation between a baseline and a follow-up CXR. 1117 patients tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection were retrospectively enrolled from four centers in Lombardy region. All patients underwent a CXR at presentation. Follow-up CXR was performed when clinically indicated. Two radiologists in each center reviewed images and classified them as suggestive or not for interstitial pneumonia, recording the presence of ground-glass opacity (GGO), reticular pattern or consolidation and their distribution. Pearson's χ2 test for categorical variables and McNemar test (χ2 for paired data) were performed. Patients mean age 63.3 years, 767 were males (65.5%). The main result is the large proportion of positive CXR in COVID-19 patients. Baseline CXR was positive in 940 patients (80.3%), with significant differences in age and sex distribution between patients with positive and negative CXR. 382 patients underwent a follow-up CXR. The most frequent pattern on baseline CXR was the GGO (66.1%), on follow-up was consolidation (53.4%). The most common distributions were peripheral and middle-lower lung zone. We described key-patterns and their distribution on CXR in a large cohort of COVID-19 patients: GGO was the most frequent finding on baseline CXR, while we found an increase in the proportion of lung consolidation on follow-up CXR. CXR proved to be a reliable tool in our cohort obtaining positive results in 80.3% of the baseline cases.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/diagnostic imaging , Radiography, Thoracic/methods , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/epidemiology , Cohort Studies , Female , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Radiography, Thoracic/statistics & numerical data , Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction/methods
14.
Clin Microbiol Infect ; 27(1): 105-111, 2021 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-861317

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To assess the efficacy of corticosteroids in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: A multicentre observational study was performed from 22 February through 30 June 2020. We included consecutive adult patients with severe COVID-19, defined as respiratory rate ≥30 breath per minute, oxygen saturation ≤93% on ambient air or arterial partial pressure of oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen ≤300 mm Hg. We excluded patients being treated with other immunomodulant drugs, receiving low-dose corticosteroids and receiving corticosteroids 72 hours after admission. The primary endpoint was 30-day mortality from hospital admission. The main exposure variable was corticosteroid therapy at a dose of ≥0.5 mg/kg of prednisone equivalents. It was introduced as binomial covariate in a logistic regression model for the primary endpoint and inverse probability of treatment weighting using the propensity score. RESULTS: Of 1717 patients with COVID-19 evaluated, 513 were included in the study, and of these, 170 (33%) were treated with corticosteroids. During hospitalization, 166 patients (34%) met the criteria of the primary outcome (60/170, 35% in the corticosteroid group and 106/343, 31% in the noncorticosteroid group). At multivariable analysis corticosteroid treatment was not associated with lower 30-day mortality rate (adjusted odds ratio, 0.59; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.20-1.74; p 0.33). After inverse probability of treatment weighting, corticosteroids were not associated with lower 30-day mortality (average treatment effect, 0.05; 95% CI, -0.02 to 0.09; p 0.12). However, subgroup analysis revealed that in patients with PO2/FiO2 < 200 mm Hg at admission (135 patients, 52 (38%) treated with corticosteroids), corticosteroid treatment was associated with a lower risk of 30-day mortality (23/52, 44% vs. 45/83, 54%; adjusted odds ratio, 0.20; 95% CI, 0.04-0.90; p 0.036). CONCLUSIONS: The effect of corticosteroid treatment on mortality might be limited to critically ill COVID-19 patients.


Subject(s)
Adrenal Cortex Hormones/therapeutic use , COVID-19/drug therapy , COVID-19/mortality , Respiratory Distress Syndrome/drug therapy , Respiratory Distress Syndrome/mortality , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity , Adult , Aged , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , COVID-19/pathology , Critical Illness , Female , Heparin, Low-Molecular-Weight/therapeutic use , Hospital Mortality , Hospitals , Humans , Hydroxychloroquine/therapeutic use , Italy , Length of Stay/statistics & numerical data , Male , Middle Aged , Odds Ratio , Respiratory Distress Syndrome/pathology , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2/drug effects , Severity of Illness Index , Survival Analysis , Treatment Outcome
16.
Clin Microbiol Infect ; 26(11): 1545-1553, 2020 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-764425

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to develop and validate a risk score to predict severe respiratory failure (SRF) among patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: We performed a multicentre cohort study among hospitalized (>24 hours) patients diagnosed with COVID-19 from 22 February to 3 April 2020, at 11 Italian hospitals. Patients were divided into derivation and validation cohorts according to random sorting of hospitals. SRF was assessed from admission to hospital discharge and was defined as: Spo2 <93% with 100% Fio2, respiratory rate >30 breaths/min or respiratory distress. Multivariable logistic regression models were built to identify predictors of SRF, ß-coefficients were used to develop a risk score. Trial Registration NCT04316949. RESULTS: We analysed 1113 patients (644 derivation, 469 validation cohort). Mean (±SD) age was 65.7 (±15) years, 704 (63.3%) were male. SRF occurred in 189/644 (29%) and 187/469 (40%) patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. At multivariate analysis, risk factors for SRF in the derivation cohort assessed at hospitalization were age ≥70 years (OR 2.74; 95% CI 1.66-4.50), obesity (OR 4.62; 95% CI 2.78-7.70), body temperature ≥38°C (OR 1.73; 95% CI 1.30-2.29), respiratory rate ≥22 breaths/min (OR 3.75; 95% CI 2.01-7.01), lymphocytes ≤900 cells/mm3 (OR 2.69; 95% CI 1.60-4.51), creatinine ≥1 mg/dL (OR 2.38; 95% CI 1.59-3.56), C-reactive protein ≥10 mg/dL (OR 5.91; 95% CI 4.88-7.17) and lactate dehydrogenase ≥350 IU/L (OR 2.39; 95% CI 1.11-5.11). Assigning points to each variable, an individual risk score (PREDI-CO score) was obtained. Area under the receiver-operator curve was 0.89 (0.86-0.92). At a score of >3, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 71.6% (65%-79%), 89.1% (86%-92%), 74% (67%-80%) and 89% (85%-91%), respectively. PREDI-CO score showed similar prognostic ability in the validation cohort: area under the receiver-operator curve 0.85 (0.81-0.88). At a score of >3, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 80% (73%-85%), 76% (70%-81%), 69% (60%-74%) and 85% (80%-89%), respectively. CONCLUSION: PREDI-CO score can be useful to allocate resources and prioritize treatments during the COVID-19 pandemic.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis , Logistic Models , Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis , Respiratory Insufficiency/diagnosis , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Child , Child, Preschool , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Female , Hospitalization , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Multivariate Analysis , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Prognosis , Reproducibility of Results , Respiratory Insufficiency/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies , Risk Assessment , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2 , Sensitivity and Specificity , Young Adult
18.
NPJ Digit Med ; 3: 109, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-728999

ABSTRACT

We leveraged the largely untapped resource of electronic health record data to address critical clinical and epidemiological questions about Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). To do this, we formed an international consortium (4CE) of 96 hospitals across five countries (www.covidclinical.net). Contributors utilized the Informatics for Integrating Biology and the Bedside (i2b2) or Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (OMOP) platforms to map to a common data model. The group focused on temporal changes in key laboratory test values. Harmonized data were analyzed locally and converted to a shared aggregate form for rapid analysis and visualization of regional differences and global commonalities. Data covered 27,584 COVID-19 cases with 187,802 laboratory tests. Case counts and laboratory trajectories were concordant with existing literature. Laboratory tests at the time of diagnosis showed hospital-level differences equivalent to country-level variation across the consortium partners. Despite the limitations of decentralized data generation, we established a framework to capture the trajectory of COVID-19 disease in patients and their response to interventions.

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