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1.
PLoS One ; 17(3): e0264220, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1745322

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Assess the IntelliSep Index (ISI) for risk stratification of patients presenting to the Emergency Department (ED) with respiratory symptoms suspected of COVID-19 during the pandemic. METHODS: An observational single-center study of prospective cohort of patients presenting to the ED during the early COVID-19 pandemic with respiratory symptoms and a CBC drawn within 4.5 hours of initial vital signs. A sample of this blood was aliquoted for performance of the ISI, and patients were followed for clinical outcomes. The study required no patient-centered activity beyond standard of care and treating clinicians were unaware of study enrollment and ISI test results. MAIN FINDINGS: 282 patients were included. The ISI ranges 0.1 to 10.0, with three interpretation bands indicating risk of adverse outcome: low (green), 0.1-4.9; intermediate (yellow), 5.0-6.2; and high (red), 6.3-10.0. Of 193 (68.4%) tested for SARS-CoV-2, 96 (49.7%) were positive. The ISI resulted in 182 (64.5%) green, 54 (18.1%) yellow, and 46 (15.6%) red band patients. Green band patients had a 1.1% (n = 2) 3-day mortality, while yellow and red band had 3.7% (n = 2, p > .05) and 10.9% (n = 5, p < .05) 3-day mortalities, respectively. Fewer green band patients required admission (96 [52.7%]) vs yellow (44 [81.5%]) and red (43 [93.5%]). Green band patients had more hospital free days (median 23 (Q1-Q3 20-25) than yellow (median 22 [Q1-Q3 0-23], p < 0.05) and red (median 21 [Q1-Q3 0-24], p < 0.01). SOFA increased with interpretation band: green (2, [Q1-Q3 0-4]) vs yellow (4, [Q1-Q3 2-5], p < 0.001) and red (5, [Q1-Q3 3-6]) p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The ISI rapidly risk-stratifies patients presenting to the ED during the early COVID-19 pandemic with signs or suspicion of respiratory infection.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/diagnosis , Respiratory Tract Infections/etiology , Aged , COVID-19/immunology , COVID-19/mortality , Emergency Service, Hospital , Female , Humans , Immunity, Cellular , Male , Middle Aged , Mortality , Prospective Studies , Respiratory Tract Infections/immunology , Respiratory Tract Infections/mortality
2.
Nat Rev Cardiol ; 19(5): 314-331, 2022 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1555484

ABSTRACT

The lungs are the primary target of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, with severe hypoxia being the cause of death in the most critical cases. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is extremely heterogeneous in terms of severity, clinical phenotype and, importantly, global distribution. Although the majority of affected patients recover from the acute infection, many continue to suffer from late sequelae affecting various organs, including the lungs. The role of the pulmonary vascular system during the acute and chronic stages of COVID-19 has not been adequately studied. A thorough understanding of the origins and dynamic behaviour of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the potential causes of heterogeneity in COVID-19 is essential for anticipating and treating the disease, in both the acute and the chronic stages, including the development of chronic pulmonary hypertension. Both COVID-19 and chronic pulmonary hypertension have assumed global dimensions, with potential complex interactions. In this Review, we present an update on the origins and behaviour of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and discuss the potential causes of the heterogeneity of COVID-19. In addition, we summarize the pathobiology of COVID-19, with an emphasis on the role of the pulmonary vasculature, both in the acute stage and in terms of the potential for developing chronic pulmonary hypertension. We hope that the information presented in this Review will help in the development of strategies for the prevention and treatment of the continuing COVID-19 pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Hypertension, Pulmonary , Humans , Lung , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2
3.
JRSM Cardiovasc Dis ; 10: 20480040211059374, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1528667

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Susceptibility to and severity of COVID-19 is associated with risk factors for and presence of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: We performed a 2-sample Mendelian randomization to determine whether blood pressure (BP), body mass index (BMI), presence of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and coronary artery disease (CAD) are causally related to presentation with severe COVID-19. Variant-exposure instrumental variable associations were determined from most recently published genome-wide association and meta-analysis studies (GWAS) with publicly available summary-level GWAS data. Variant-outcome associations were obtained from a recent GWAS meta-analysis of laboratory confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 with severity determined according to need for hospitalization/death. We also examined reverse causality using exposure as diagnosis of severe COVID-19 causing cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: We found no evidence for a causal association of cardiovascular risk factors/disease with severe COVID-19 (compared to population controls), nor evidence of reverse causality. Causal odds ratios (OR, by inverse variance weighted regression) for BP (OR for COVID-19 diagnosis 1.00 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.99-1.01, P = 0.604] per genetically predicted increase in BP) and T2DM (OR for COVID-19 diagnosis to that of genetically predicted T2DM 1.02 [95% CI: 0.9-1.05, P = 0.927], in particular, were close to unity with relatively narrow confidence intervals. CONCLUSION: The association between cardiovascular risk factors/disease with that of hospitalization with COVID-19 reported in observational studies could be due to residual confounding by socioeconomic factors and /or those that influence the indication for hospital admission.

4.
Lancet Respir Med ; 9(11): 1275-1287, 2021 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1514340

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The impact of COVID-19 on physical and mental health and employment after hospitalisation with acute disease is not well understood. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of COVID-19-related hospitalisation on health and employment, to identify factors associated with recovery, and to describe recovery phenotypes. METHODS: The Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) is a multicentre, long-term follow-up study of adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital in the UK with a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19, involving an assessment between 2 and 7 months after discharge, including detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical testing. Multivariable logistic regression was done for the primary outcome of patient-perceived recovery, with age, sex, ethnicity, body-mass index, comorbidities, and severity of acute illness as covariates. A post-hoc cluster analysis of outcomes for breathlessness, fatigue, mental health, cognitive impairment, and physical performance was done using the clustering large applications k-medoids approach. The study is registered on the ISRCTN Registry (ISRCTN10980107). FINDINGS: We report findings for 1077 patients discharged from hospital between March 5 and Nov 30, 2020, who underwent assessment at a median of 5·9 months (IQR 4·9-6·5) after discharge. Participants had a mean age of 58 years (SD 13); 384 (36%) were female, 710 (69%) were of white ethnicity, 288 (27%) had received mechanical ventilation, and 540 (50%) had at least two comorbidities. At follow-up, only 239 (29%) of 830 participants felt fully recovered, 158 (20%) of 806 had a new disability (assessed by the Washington Group Short Set on Functioning), and 124 (19%) of 641 experienced a health-related change in occupation. Factors associated with not recovering were female sex, middle age (40-59 years), two or more comorbidities, and more severe acute illness. The magnitude of the persistent health burden was substantial but only weakly associated with the severity of acute illness. Four clusters were identified with different severities of mental and physical health impairment (n=767): very severe (131 patients, 17%), severe (159, 21%), moderate along with cognitive impairment (127, 17%), and mild (350, 46%). Of the outcomes used in the cluster analysis, all were closely related except for cognitive impairment. Three (3%) of 113 patients in the very severe cluster, nine (7%) of 129 in the severe cluster, 36 (36%) of 99 in the moderate cluster, and 114 (43%) of 267 in the mild cluster reported feeling fully recovered. Persistently elevated serum C-reactive protein was positively associated with cluster severity. INTERPRETATION: We identified factors related to not recovering after hospital admission with COVID-19 at 6 months after discharge (eg, female sex, middle age, two or more comorbidities, and more acute severe illness), and four different recovery phenotypes. The severity of physical and mental health impairments were closely related, whereas cognitive health impairments were independent. In clinical care, a proactive approach is needed across the acute severity spectrum, with interdisciplinary working, wide access to COVID-19 holistic clinical services, and the potential to stratify care. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Health Status , Mental Health , Acute Disease , Adult , Aged , COVID-19/complications , Cognition , Comorbidity , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Hospitalization , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Prospective Studies , United Kingdom/epidemiology
5.
Cardiovasc Res ; 118(2): 461-474, 2022 01 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1510904

ABSTRACT

AIMS: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can lead to multiorgan damage. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) in blood reflect cell activation and tissue injury. We aimed to determine the association of circulating miRNAs with COVID-19 severity and 28 day intensive care unit (ICU) mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed RNA-Seq in plasma of healthy controls (n = 11), non-severe (n = 18), and severe (n = 18) COVID-19 patients and selected 14 miRNAs according to cell- and tissue origin for measurement by reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) in a separate cohort of mild (n = 6), moderate (n = 39), and severe (n = 16) patients. Candidates were then measured by RT-qPCR in longitudinal samples of ICU COVID-19 patients (n = 240 samples from n = 65 patients). A total of 60 miRNAs, including platelet-, endothelial-, hepatocyte-, and cardiomyocyte-derived miRNAs, were differentially expressed depending on severity, with increased miR-133a and reduced miR-122 also being associated with 28 day mortality. We leveraged mass spectrometry-based proteomics data for corresponding protein trajectories. Myocyte-derived (myomiR) miR-133a was inversely associated with neutrophil counts and positively with proteins related to neutrophil degranulation, such as myeloperoxidase. In contrast, levels of hepatocyte-derived miR-122 correlated to liver parameters and to liver-derived positive (inverse association) and negative acute phase proteins (positive association). Finally, we compared miRNAs to established markers of COVID-19 severity and outcome, i.e. SARS-CoV-2 RNAemia, age, BMI, D-dimer, and troponin. Whilst RNAemia, age and troponin were better predictors of mortality, miR-133a and miR-122 showed superior classification performance for severity. In binary and triplet combinations, miRNAs improved classification performance of established markers for severity and mortality. CONCLUSION: Circulating miRNAs of different tissue origin, including several known cardiometabolic biomarkers, rise with COVID-19 severity. MyomiR miR-133a and liver-derived miR-122 also relate to 28 day mortality. MiR-133a reflects inflammation-induced myocyte damage, whilst miR-122 reflects the hepatic acute phase response.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/mortality , MicroRNAs/blood , SARS-CoV-2 , Adult , Aged , Biomarkers , COVID-19/complications , COVID-19/genetics , Cardiometabolic Risk Factors , Female , High-Throughput Nucleotide Sequencing , Humans , Intensive Care Units , Male , Middle Aged , Patient Acuity
6.
ESC Heart Fail ; 8(6): 4701-4704, 2021 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1384162

ABSTRACT

AIMS: Patients hospitalized for heart failure (HF) had worse in-hospital outcomes during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, their long-term outcomes are unknown. We describe long-term outcomes among patients who survived to hospital discharge compared with patients hospitalized in 2019 from two referral centers in London during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS AND RESULTS: In total, 512 patients who survived their hospitalization for acute HF in two South London referral centers between 7 January and 14 June 2020 were included in the study and compared with 725 patients from the corresponding period in 2019. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. The demographic characteristics of patients admitted in 2020 were similar to the 2019 cohort. Median (IQR) follow-up was 622 (348-691) days. All-cause mortality after discharge remained significantly higher for patients admitted in 2020 compared with the equivalent period in 2019 (P < 0.01), which may relate to observed differences in place of care with fewer patients being managed on specialist cardiology wards during the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSION: Hospitalization for HF during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with higher all-cause mortality among patients who survived to discharge. Further studies are necessary to identify predictors of these adverse outcomes to improve outpatient management during a critical period in the management of acute HF.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Heart Failure , Heart Failure/epidemiology , Hospitalization , Humans , London/epidemiology , Pandemics , Referral and Consultation , SARS-CoV-2
7.
Eur J Prev Cardiol ; 2021 Jul 23.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1322628

ABSTRACT

AIMS: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in excess mortality due to both COVID-19 directly and other conditions, including cardiovascular (CV) disease. We aimed to explore the excess in-hospital mortality, unrelated to COVID-19 infection, across a range of CV diseases. METHODS AND RESULTS: A systematic search was performed for studies investigating in-hospital mortality among patients admitted with CV disease without SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with a period outside the COVID-19 pandemic. Fifteen studies on 27 421 patients with CV disease were included in the analysis. The average in-hospital mortality rate was 10.4% (n = 974) in the COVID-19 group and 5.7% (n = 1026) in the comparator group. Compared with periods outside the COVID-19 pandemic, the pooled risk ratio (RR) demonstrated increased in-hospital mortality by 62% during COVID-19 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-2.20, P = 0.002]. Studies with a decline in admission rate >50% during the COVID-19 pandemic observed the greatest increase in mortality compared with those with <50% reduction [RR 2.74 (95% CI 2.43-3.10) vs. 1.21 (95% CI 1.07-1.37), P < 0.001]. The observed increased mortality was consistent across different CV conditions (P = 0.74 for interaction). CONCLUSIONS: In-hospital mortality among patients admitted with CV diseases was increased relative to periods outside the pandemic, independent of co-infection with COVID-19. This effect was larger in studies with the biggest decline in admission rates, suggesting a sicker cohort of patients in this period. However, studies were generally poorly conducted, and there is a need for further well-designed studies to establish the full extent of mortality not directly related to COVID-19 infection.

8.
BMC Cardiovasc Disord ; 21(1): 327, 2021 07 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1295438

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The relative association between cardiovascular (CV) risk factors, such as diabetes and hypertension, established CV disease (CVD), and susceptibility to CV complications or mortality in COVID-19 remains unclear. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study of consecutive adults hospitalised for severe COVID-19 between 1st March and 30th June 2020. Pre-existing CVD, CV risk factors and associations with mortality and CV complications were ascertained. RESULTS: Among 1721 patients (median age 71 years, 57% male), 349 (20.3%) had pre-existing CVD (CVD), 888 (51.6%) had CV risk factors without CVD (RF-CVD), 484 (28.1%) had neither. Patients with CVD were older with a higher burden of non-CV comorbidities. During follow-up, 438 (25.5%) patients died: 37% with CVD, 25.7% with RF-CVD and 16.5% with neither. CVD was independently associated with in-hospital mortality among patients < 70 years of age (adjusted HR 2.43 [95% CI 1.16-5.07]), but not in those ≥ 70 years (aHR 1.14 [95% CI 0.77-1.69]). RF-CVD were not independently associated with mortality in either age group (< 70 y aHR 1.21 [95% CI 0.72-2.01], ≥ 70 y aHR 1.07 [95% CI 0.76-1.52]). Most CV complications occurred in patients with CVD (66%) versus RF-CVD (17%) or neither (11%; p < 0.001). 213 [12.4%] patients developed venous thromboembolism (VTE). CVD was not an independent predictor of VTE. CONCLUSIONS: In patients hospitalised with COVID-19, pre-existing established CVD appears to be a more important contributor to mortality than CV risk factors in the absence of CVD. CVD-related hazard may be mediated, in part, by new CV complications. Optimal care and vigilance for destabilised CVD are essential in this patient group. Trial registration n/a.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Cardiovascular Diseases , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology , Hospital Mortality , Hypertension/epidemiology , Venous Thromboembolism , Age Factors , Aged , COVID-19/mortality , COVID-19/physiopathology , COVID-19/therapy , Cardiovascular Diseases/complications , Cardiovascular Diseases/diagnosis , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Cohort Studies , Female , Heart Disease Risk Factors , Humans , Male , Mortality , Outcome and Process Assessment, Health Care , Risk Assessment/methods , Risk Assessment/statistics & numerical data , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , United Kingdom/epidemiology , Venous Thromboembolism/diagnosis , Venous Thromboembolism/epidemiology , Venous Thromboembolism/etiology
9.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 3406, 2021 06 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1260941

ABSTRACT

Prognostic characteristics inform risk stratification in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We obtained blood samples (n = 474) from hospitalized COVID-19 patients (n = 123), non-COVID-19 ICU sepsis patients (n = 25) and healthy controls (n = 30). Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA was detected in plasma or serum (RNAemia) of COVID-19 ICU patients when neutralizing antibody response was low. RNAemia is associated with higher 28-day ICU mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.84 [95% CI, 1.22-2.77] adjusted for age and sex). RNAemia is comparable in performance to the best protein predictors. Mannose binding lectin 2 and pentraxin-3 (PTX3), two activators of the complement pathway of the innate immune system, are positively associated with mortality. Machine learning identified 'Age, RNAemia' and 'Age, PTX3' as the best binary signatures associated with 28-day ICU mortality. In longitudinal comparisons, COVID-19 ICU patients have a distinct proteomic trajectory associated with mortality, with recovery of many liver-derived proteins indicating survival. Finally, proteins of the complement system and galectin-3-binding protein (LGALS3BP) are identified as interaction partners of SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein. LGALS3BP overexpression inhibits spike-pseudoparticle uptake and spike-induced cell-cell fusion in vitro.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/prevention & control , Critical Care/statistics & numerical data , Proteomics/methods , RNA, Viral/genetics , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Adult , Animals , Antibodies, Neutralizing/immunology , Antigens, Neoplasm/metabolism , Biomarkers, Tumor/metabolism , C-Reactive Protein/metabolism , COVID-19/metabolism , COVID-19/virology , Female , HEK293 Cells , Humans , Kaplan-Meier Estimate , Male , Middle Aged , RNA, Viral/blood , SARS-CoV-2/metabolism , SARS-CoV-2/physiology , Serum Amyloid P-Component/metabolism , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/immunology , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/metabolism , Viral Load/immunology
10.
Hypertension ; 77(6): 2014-2022, 2021 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1221676

ABSTRACT

Presence of heart failure is associated with a poor prognosis in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The aim of the present study was to examine whether first-phase ejection fraction (EF1), the ejection fraction measured in early systole up to the time of peak aortic velocity, a sensitive measure of preclinical heart failure, is associated with survival in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. A retrospective outcome study was performed in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 who underwent echocardiography (n=380) at the West Branch of the Union Hospital, Wuhan, China and in patients admitted to King's Health Partners in South London, United Kingdom. Association of EF1 with survival was performed using Cox proportional hazards regression. EF1 was compared in patients with COVID-19 and in historical controls with similar comorbidities (n=266) who had undergone echocardiography before the COVID-19 pandemic. In patients with COVID-19, EF1 was a strong predictor of survival in each patient group (Wuhan and London). In the combined group, EF1 was a stronger predictor of survival than other clinical, laboratory, and echocardiographic characteristics including age, comorbidities, and biochemical markers. A cutoff value of 25% for EF1 gave a hazard ratio of 5.23 ([95% CI, 2.85-9.60]; P<0.001) unadjusted and 4.83 ([95% CI, 2.35-9.95], P<0.001) when adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, hs-cTnI (high-sensitive cardiac troponin), and CRP (C-reactive protein). EF1 was similar in patients with and without COVID-19 (23.2±7.3 versus 22.0±7.6%, P=0.092, adjusted for prevalence of risk factors and comorbidities). Impaired EF1 is strongly associated with mortality in COVID-19 and probably reflects preexisting, preclinical heart failure.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Echocardiography , Heart Failure , Stroke Volume , Adult , Aged , COVID-19/mortality , COVID-19/physiopathology , COVID-19/therapy , China/epidemiology , Comorbidity , Echocardiography/methods , Echocardiography/statistics & numerical data , Heart Failure/diagnosis , Heart Failure/epidemiology , Heart Failure/physiopathology , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Outcome and Process Assessment, Health Care , Predictive Value of Tests , Prevalence , Prognosis , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Survival Analysis , United Kingdom/epidemiology
11.
Nature ; 594(7861): 88-93, 2021 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1171428

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 is a disease with unique characteristics that include lung thrombosis1, frequent diarrhoea2, abnormal activation of the inflammatory response3 and rapid deterioration of lung function consistent with alveolar oedema4. The pathological substrate for these findings remains unknown. Here we show that the lungs of patients with COVID-19 contain infected pneumocytes with abnormal morphology and frequent multinucleation. The generation of these syncytia results from activation of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein at the cell plasma membrane level. On the basis of these observations, we performed two high-content microscopy-based screenings with more than 3,000 approved drugs to search for inhibitors of spike-driven syncytia. We converged on the identification of 83 drugs that inhibited spike-mediated cell fusion, several of which belonged to defined pharmacological classes. We focused our attention on effective drugs that also protected against virus replication and associated cytopathicity. One of the most effective molecules was the antihelminthic drug niclosamide, which markedly blunted calcium oscillations and membrane conductance in spike-expressing cells by suppressing the activity of TMEM16F (also known as anoctamin 6), a calcium-activated ion channel and scramblase that is responsible for exposure of phosphatidylserine on the cell surface. These findings suggest a potential mechanism for COVID-19 disease pathogenesis and support the repurposing of niclosamide for therapy.


Subject(s)
Anoctamins/antagonists & inhibitors , COVID-19/pathology , Cell Fusion , Drug Evaluation, Preclinical , Giant Cells/drug effects , SARS-CoV-2/drug effects , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/antagonists & inhibitors , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Alveolar Epithelial Cells/drug effects , Alveolar Epithelial Cells/pathology , Alveolar Epithelial Cells/virology , Animals , Anoctamins/metabolism , COVID-19/metabolism , COVID-19/virology , Calcium Signaling/drug effects , Cell Line , Chloride Channels/metabolism , Chlorocebus aethiops , Female , Giant Cells/metabolism , Giant Cells/virology , Humans , Lung/drug effects , Lung/pathology , Lung/virology , Male , SARS-CoV-2/metabolism , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/metabolism , Virus Replication/drug effects
12.
Eur J Prev Cardiol ; 28(14): 1599-1609, 2021 12 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1091243

ABSTRACT

AIMS: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) increase mortality risk from coronavirus infection (COVID-19). There are also concerns that the pandemic has affected supply and demand of acute cardiovascular care. We estimated excess mortality in specific CVDs, both 'direct', through infection, and 'indirect', through changes in healthcare. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used (i) national mortality data for England and Wales to investigate trends in non-COVID-19 and CVD excess deaths; (ii) routine data from hospitals in England (n = 2), Italy (n = 1), and China (n = 5) to assess indirect pandemic effects on referral, diagnosis, and treatment services for CVD; and (iii) population-based electronic health records from 3 862 012 individuals in England to investigate pre- and post-COVID-19 mortality for people with incident and prevalent CVD. We incorporated pre-COVID-19 risk (by age, sex, and comorbidities), estimated population COVID-19 prevalence, and estimated relative risk (RR) of mortality in those with CVD and COVID-19 compared with CVD and non-infected (RR: 1.2, 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0).Mortality data suggest indirect effects on CVD will be delayed rather than contemporaneous (peak RR 1.14). CVD service activity decreased by 60-100% compared with pre-pandemic levels in eight hospitals across China, Italy, and England. In China, activity remained below pre-COVID-19 levels for 2-3 months even after easing lockdown and is still reduced in Italy and England. For total CVD (incident and prevalent), at 10% COVID-19 prevalence, we estimated direct impact of 31 205 and 62 410 excess deaths in England (RR 1.5 and 2.0, respectively), and indirect effect of 49 932 to 99 865 deaths. CONCLUSION: Supply and demand for CVD services have dramatically reduced across countries with potential for substantial, but avoidable, excess mortality during and after the pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Cardiovascular Diseases , Cardiovascular Diseases/diagnosis , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control , Humans , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2
13.
BMC Med ; 19(1): 23, 2021 01 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1067228

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) is currently recommended in the UK for the risk stratification of COVID-19 patients, but little is known about its ability to detect severe cases. We aimed to evaluate NEWS2 for the prediction of severe COVID-19 outcome and identify and validate a set of blood and physiological parameters routinely collected at hospital admission to improve upon the use of NEWS2 alone for medium-term risk stratification. METHODS: Training cohorts comprised 1276 patients admitted to King's College Hospital National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust with COVID-19 disease from 1 March to 30 April 2020. External validation cohorts included 6237 patients from five UK NHS Trusts (Guy's and St Thomas' Hospitals, University Hospitals Southampton, University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust, University College London Hospitals, University Hospitals Birmingham), one hospital in Norway (Oslo University Hospital), and two hospitals in Wuhan, China (Wuhan Sixth Hospital and Taikang Tongji Hospital). The outcome was severe COVID-19 disease (transfer to intensive care unit (ICU) or death) at 14 days after hospital admission. Age, physiological measures, blood biomarkers, sex, ethnicity, and comorbidities (hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular, respiratory and kidney diseases) measured at hospital admission were considered in the models. RESULTS: A baseline model of 'NEWS2 + age' had poor-to-moderate discrimination for severe COVID-19 infection at 14 days (area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in training cohort = 0.700, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.680, 0.722; Brier score = 0.192, 95% CI 0.186, 0.197). A supplemented model adding eight routinely collected blood and physiological parameters (supplemental oxygen flow rate, urea, age, oxygen saturation, C-reactive protein, estimated glomerular filtration rate, neutrophil count, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio) improved discrimination (AUC = 0.735; 95% CI 0.715, 0.757), and these improvements were replicated across seven UK and non-UK sites. However, there was evidence of miscalibration with the model tending to underestimate risks in most sites. CONCLUSIONS: NEWS2 score had poor-to-moderate discrimination for medium-term COVID-19 outcome which raises questions about its use as a screening tool at hospital admission. Risk stratification was improved by including readily available blood and physiological parameters measured at hospital admission, but there was evidence of miscalibration in external sites. This highlights the need for a better understanding of the use of early warning scores for COVID.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/diagnosis , Early Warning Score , Aged , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/virology , Cohort Studies , Electronic Health Records , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Prognosis , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , State Medicine , United Kingdom/epidemiology
14.
Curr Res Transl Med ; 69(2): 103276, 2021 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1062581

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Understanding the spectrum and course of biological responses to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may have important therapeutic implications. We sought to characterise biological responses among patients hospitalised with severe COVID-19 based on serial, routinely collected, physiological and blood biomarker values. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 1335 patients hospitalised with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 (median age 70 years, 56 % male), between 1st March and 30th April 2020. Latent profile analysis was performed on serial physiological and blood biomarkers. Patient characteristics, comorbidities and rates of death and admission to intensive care, were compared between the latent classes. A five class solution provided the best fit. Class 1 "Typical response" exhibited a moderately elevated and rising C-reactive protein (CRP), stable lymphopaenia, and the lowest rates of 14-day adverse outcomes. Class 2 "Rapid hyperinflammatory response" comprised older patients, with higher admission white cell and neutrophil counts, which declined over time, accompanied by a very high and rising CRP and platelet count, and exibited the highest mortality risk. Class 3 "Progressive inflammatory response" was similar to the typical response except for a higher and rising CRP, though similar mortality rate. Class 4 "Inflammatory response with kidney injury" had prominent lymphopaenia, moderately elevated (and rising) CRP, and severe renal failure. Class 5 "Hyperinflammatory response with kidney injury" comprised older patients, with a very high and rising CRP, and severe renal failure that attenuated over time. Physiological measures did not substantially vary between classes at baseline or early admission. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Our identification of five distinct classes of biomarker profiles provides empirical evidence for heterogeneous biological responses to COVID-19. Early hyperinflammatory responses and kidney injury may signify unique pathophysiology that requires targeted therapy.


Subject(s)
Biomarkers/blood , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/physiopathology , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Biological Variation, Individual , Body Temperature , COVID-19/blood , Cohort Studies , Comorbidity , Diagnostic Tests, Routine , Disease Progression , Female , Heart Rate/physiology , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Oxygen Consumption/physiology , Prognosis , Retrospective Studies , Risk Assessment , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity , Severity of Illness Index , Socioeconomic Factors , United Kingdom/epidemiology
15.
EClinicalMedicine ; 28: 100574, 2020 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-846813

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: People of minority ethnic backgrounds may be disproportionately affected by severe COVID-19. Whether this relates to increased infection risk, more severe disease progression, or worse in-hospital survival is unknown. The contribution of comorbidities or socioeconomic deprivation to ethnic patterning of outcomes is also unclear. METHODS: We conducted a case-control and a cohort study in an inner city primary and secondary care setting to examine whether ethnic background affects the risk of hospital admission with severe COVID-19 and/or in-hospital mortality. Inner city adult residents admitted to hospital with confirmed COVID-19 (n = 872 cases) were compared with 3,488 matched controls randomly sampled from a primary healthcare database comprising 344,083 people residing in the same region. For the cohort study, we studied 1827 adults consecutively admitted with COVID-19. The primary exposure variable was self-defined ethnicity. Analyses were adjusted for socio-demographic and clinical variables. FINDINGS: The 872 cases comprised 48.1% Black, 33.7% White, 12.6% Mixed/Other and 5.6% Asian patients. In conditional logistic regression analyses, Black and Mixed/Other ethnicity were associated with higher admission risk than white (OR 3.12 [95% CI 2.63-3.71] and 2.97 [2.30-3.85] respectively). Adjustment for comorbidities and deprivation modestly attenuated the association (OR 2.24 [1.83-2.74] for Black, 2.70 [2.03-3.59] for Mixed/Other). Asian ethnicity was not associated with higher admission risk (adjusted OR 1.01 [0.70-1.46]). In the cohort study of 1827 patients, 455 (28.9%) died over a median (IQR) of 8 (4-16) days. Age and male sex, but not Black (adjusted HR 1.06 [0.82-1.37]) or Mixed/Other ethnicity (adjusted HR 0.72 [0.47-1.10]), were associated with in-hospital mortality. Asian ethnicity was associated with higher in-hospital mortality but with a large confidence interval (adjusted HR 1.71 [1.15-2.56]). INTERPRETATION: Black and Mixed ethnicity are independently associated with greater admission risk with COVID-19 and may be risk factors for development of severe disease, but do not affect in-hospital mortality risk. Comorbidities and socioeconomic factors only partly account for this and additional ethnicity-related factors may play a large role. The impact of COVID-19 may be different in Asians. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation; the National Institute for Health Research; Health Data Research UK.

18.
Eur J Heart Fail ; 22(12): 2219-2224, 2020 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-718327

ABSTRACT

AIMS: Admission rates for acute decompensated heart failure (HF) declined during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the impact of this reduction on hospital mortality is unknown. We describe temporal trends in the presentation of patients with acute HF and their in-hospital outcomes at two referral centres in London during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 1372 patients hospitalized for HF in two referral centres in South London between 7 January and 14 June 2020 were included in the study and their outcomes compared with those of equivalent patients of the same time period in 2019. The primary outcome was all-cause in-hospital mortality. The number of HF hospitalizations was significantly reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic, compared with 2019 (P < 0.001). Specifically, we observed a temporary reduction in hospitalizations during the COVID-19 peak, followed by a return to 2019 levels. Patients admitted during the COVID-19 pandemic had demographic characteristics similar to those admitted during the equivalent period in 2019. However, in-hospital mortality was significantly higher in 2020 than in 2019 (P = 0.015). Hospitalization in 2020 was independently associated with worse in-hospital mortality (hazard ratio 2.23, 95% confidence interval 1.34-3.72; P = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: During the COVID-19 pandemic there was a reduction in HF hospitalization and a higher rate of in-hospital mortality. Hospitalization for HF in 2020 is independently associated with more adverse outcomes. Further studies are required to investigate the predictors of these adverse outcomes to help inform potential changes to the management of HF patients while some constraints to usual care remain.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Heart Failure/epidemiology , Hospital Mortality/trends , Hospitalization/trends , Acute Disease , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Female , Heart Failure/therapy , Humans , London/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Proportional Hazards Models , SARS-CoV-2
19.
Eur J Heart Fail ; 22(6): 967-974, 2020 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-702780

ABSTRACT

AIMS: The SARS-CoV-2 virus binds to the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor for cell entry. It has been suggested that angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi) and angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARB), which are commonly used in patients with hypertension or diabetes and may raise tissue ACE2 levels, could increase the risk of severe COVID-19 infection. METHODS AND RESULTS: We evaluated this hypothesis in a consecutive cohort of 1200 acute inpatients with COVID-19 at two hospitals with a multi-ethnic catchment population in London (UK). The mean age was 68 ± 17 years (57% male) and 74% of patients had at least one comorbidity. Overall, 415 patients (34.6%) reached the primary endpoint of death or transfer to a critical care unit for organ support within 21 days of symptom onset. A total of 399 patients (33.3%) were taking ACEi or ARB. Patients on ACEi/ARB were significantly older and had more comorbidities. The odds ratio for the primary endpoint in patients on ACEi and ARB, after adjustment for age, sex and co-morbidities, was 0.63 (95% confidence interval 0.47-0.84, P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence for increased severity of COVID-19 in hospitalised patients on chronic treatment with ACEi or ARB. A trend towards a beneficial effect of ACEi/ARB requires further evaluation in larger meta-analyses and randomised clinical trials.


Subject(s)
Angiotensin Receptor Antagonists/therapeutic use , Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Heart Failure/drug therapy , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Aged , Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors/therapeutic use , COVID-19 , Comorbidity , Coronavirus Infections/drug therapy , Disease Progression , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Heart Failure/epidemiology , Humans , Male , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/drug therapy , SARS-CoV-2 , Severity of Illness Index , Treatment Outcome , United Kingdom/epidemiology
20.
Clin Med (Lond) ; 20(5): e170-e172, 2020 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-688782

ABSTRACT

During the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic the restructure of healthcare services to meet the huge increase in demand for hospital resource and capacity has led to the proposal that where necessary ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) could be managed by intravenous thrombolysis in the first instance as a means of reducing the workforce requirements of a primary angioplasty service run at a heart attack centre. Our modelling, based on data from the UK, shows that contrary to reducing demand, the effect on both mortality and bed occupancy would be negative with 158 additional deaths per year for each 10% reduction in primary angioplasty and at a cost of ~8,000 additional bed days per year for the same reduction. Our analysis demonstrates that specialist services such as heart attack pathways should be protected during the COVID crisis to maximise the appropriate use of resource and prevent unnecessary mortality.


Subject(s)
Bed Occupancy/statistics & numerical data , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction/mortality , ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction/therapy , Thrombolytic Therapy/statistics & numerical data , Aged , COVID-19 , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Female , Hospital Mortality/trends , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Outcome Assessment, Health Care , Pandemics/prevention & control , Percutaneous Coronary Intervention/statistics & numerical data , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Risk Assessment , ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction/diagnosis , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome/epidemiology , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome/prevention & control , Thrombolytic Therapy/methods , United Kingdom
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