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1.
PLoS One ; 15(9): e0239536, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-807661

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has created unprecedented medical challenges. There remains a need for validated risk prediction models to assess short-term mortality risk among hospitalized patients with COVID-19. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a 7-day and 14-day mortality risk prediction model for patients hospitalized with COVID-19. METHODS: We performed a multicenter retrospective cohort study with a separate multicenter cohort for external validation using two hospitals in New York, NY, and 9 hospitals in Massachusetts, respectively. A total of 664 patients in NY and 265 patients with COVID-19 in Massachusetts, hospitalized from March to April 2020. RESULTS: We developed a risk model consisting of patient age, hypoxia severity, mean arterial pressure and presence of kidney dysfunction at hospital presentation. Multivariable regression model was based on risk factors selected from univariable and Chi-squared automatic interaction detection analyses. Validation was by receiver operating characteristic curve (discrimination) and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit (GOF) test (calibration). In internal cross-validation, prediction of 7-day mortality had an AUC of 0.86 (95%CI 0.74-0.98; GOF p = 0.744); while 14-day had an AUC of 0.83 (95%CI 0.69-0.97; GOF p = 0.588). External validation was achieved using 265 patients from an outside cohort and confirmed 7- and 14-day mortality prediction performance with an AUC of 0.85 (95%CI 0.78-0.92; GOF p = 0.340) and 0.83 (95%CI 0.76-0.89; GOF p = 0.471) respectively, along with excellent calibration. Retrospective data collection, short follow-up time, and development in COVID-19 epicenter may limit model generalizability. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-AID risk tool is a well-calibrated model that demonstrates accuracy in the prediction of both 7-day and 14-day mortality risk among patients hospitalized with COVID-19. This prediction score could assist with resource utilization, patient and caregiver education, and provide a risk stratification instrument for future research trials.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Logistic Models , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Risk Assessment/methods , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Betacoronavirus , Female , Hospital Mortality , Hospitalization , Humans , Male , Massachusetts , Middle Aged , New York , Pandemics , ROC Curve , Regression Analysis , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , United States
2.
Dig Dis Sci ; 2020 Sep 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-758086

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has significantly impacted the practice of endoscopy, but characteristics of COVID patients undergoing endoscopy have not been adequately described. AIMS: To compare findings, clinical outcomes, and patient characteristics of endoscopies performed during the pandemic in patients with and without COVID-19. METHODS: This was a retrospective multicenter study of adult endoscopies at six academic hospitals in New York between March 16 and April 30, 2020. Patient and procedure characteristics including age, sex, indication, findings, interventions, and outcomes were compared in patients testing positive, negative, or untested for COVID-19. RESULTS: Six hundred and five endoscopies were performed on 545 patients during the study period. There were 84 (13.9%), 255 (42.2%), and 266 (44.0%) procedures on COVID-positive, negative, and untested patients, respectively. COVID patients were more likely to undergo endoscopy for gastrointestinal bleeding or gastrostomy tube placement, and COVID patients with gastrointestinal bleeding more often required hemostatic interventions on multivariable logistic regression. COVID patients had increased length of stay, intensive care unit admission, and intubation rate. Twenty-seven of 521 patients (5.2%) with no or negative COVID testing prior to endoscopy later tested positive, a median of 13.5 days post-procedure. CONCLUSIONS: Endoscopies in COVID patients were more likely to require interventions, due either to more severe illness or a higher threshold to perform endoscopy. A significant number of patients endoscoped without testing were subsequently found to be COVID-positive. Gastroenterologists in areas affected by the pandemic must adapt to changing patterns of endoscopy practice and ensure pre-endoscopy COVID testing.

3.
Am J Gastroenterol ; 115(10): 1609-1616, 2020 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-717821

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Although current literature has addressed gastrointestinal presentations including nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, abnormal liver chemistries, and hyperlipasemia as possible coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) manifestations, the risk and type of gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) in this population is not well characterized. METHODS: This is a matched case-control (1:2) study with 41 cases of GIB (31 upper and 10 lower) in patients with COVID-19 and 82 matched controls of patients with COVID-19 without GIB. The primary objective was to characterize bleeding etiologies, and our secondary aim was to discuss outcomes and therapeutic approaches. RESULTS: There was no difference in the presenting symptoms of the cases and controls, and no difference in severity of COVID-19 manifestations (P > 0.05) was observed. Ten (32%) patients with upper GIB underwent esophagogastroduodenoscopy and 5 (50%) patients with lower GIBs underwent flexible sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy. The most common upper and lower GIB etiologies were gastric or duodenal ulcers (80%) and rectal ulcers related to rectal tubes (60%), respectively. Four of the esophagogastroduodenoscopies resulted in therapeutic interventions, and the 3 patients with rectal ulcers were referred to colorectal surgery for rectal packing. Successful hemostasis was achieved in all 7 cases that required interventions. Transfusion requirements between patients who underwent endoscopic therapy and those who were conservatively managed were not significantly different. Anticoagulation and rectal tube usage trended toward being a risk factor for GIB, although it did not reach statistical significance. DISCUSSION: In COVID-19 patients with GIB, compared with matched controls of COVID-19 patients without GIB, there seemed to be no difference in initial presenting symptoms. Of those with upper and lower GIB, the most common etiology was peptic ulcer disease and rectal ulcers from rectal tubes, respectively. Conservative management seems to be a reasonable initial approach in managing these complex cases, but larger studies are needed to guide management.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus/pathogenicity , Coronavirus Infections/complications , Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage/epidemiology , Peptic Ulcer/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/complications , Rectal Diseases/epidemiology , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Anticoagulants/adverse effects , Blood Transfusion/statistics & numerical data , Case-Control Studies , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Endoscopy/statistics & numerical data , Enema/adverse effects , Enema/instrumentation , Female , Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage/etiology , Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage/therapy , Hemostatic Techniques/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Peptic Ulcer/complications , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Pneumonia, Viral/virology , Rectal Diseases/etiology , Rectal Diseases/therapy , Risk Factors
4.
JMIR Public Health Surveill ; 6(3): e19354, 2020 07 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-637869

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a novel viral illness that has rapidly spread worldwide. While the disease primarily presents as a respiratory illness, gastrointestinal symptoms such as diarrhea have been reported in up to one-third of confirmed cases, and patients may have mild symptoms that do not prompt them to seek medical attention. Internet-based infodemiology offers an approach to studying symptoms at a population level, even in individuals who do not seek medical care. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine if a correlation exists between internet searches for gastrointestinal symptoms and the confirmed case count of COVID-19 in the United States. METHODS: The search terms chosen for analysis in this study included common gastrointestinal symptoms such as diarrhea, nausea, vomiting, and abdominal pain. Furthermore, the search terms fever and cough were used as positive controls, and constipation was used as a negative control. Daily query shares for the selected symptoms were obtained from Google Trends between October 1, 2019 and June 15, 2020 for all US states. These shares were divided into two time periods: pre-COVID-19 (prior to March 1) and post-COVID-19 (March 1-June 15). Confirmed COVID-19 case numbers were obtained from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering data repository. Moving averages of the daily query shares (normalized to baseline pre-COVID-19) were then analyzed against the confirmed disease case count and daily new cases to establish a temporal relationship. RESULTS: The relative search query shares of many symptoms, including nausea, vomiting, abdominal pain, and constipation, remained near or below baseline throughout the time period studied; however, there were notable increases in searches for the positive control symptoms of fever and cough as well as for diarrhea. These increases in daily search queries for fever, cough, and diarrhea preceded the rapid rise in number of cases by approximately 10 to 14 days. The search volumes for these terms began declining after mid-March despite the continued rises in cumulative cases and daily new case counts. CONCLUSIONS: Google searches for symptoms may precede the actual rises in cases and hospitalizations during pandemics. During the current COVID-19 pandemic, this study demonstrates that internet search queries for fever, cough, and diarrhea increased prior to the increased confirmed case count by available testing during the early weeks of the pandemic in the United States. While the search volumes eventually decreased significantly as the number of cases continued to rise, internet query search data may still be a useful tool at a population level to identify areas of active disease transmission at the cusp of new outbreaks.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis , Gastrointestinal Diseases/epidemiology , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis , Public Health Surveillance/methods , Search Engine/statistics & numerical data , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Humans , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , United States/epidemiology
5.
Obesity (Silver Spring) ; 28(9): 1606-1612, 2020 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-437469

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: The 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has triggered a rapidly expanding global pandemic in which patients exhibit a wide spectrum of disease severity. Given the high prevalence of obesity in the United States, we hypothesized that the presence of obesity may play a role in the clinical course of patients with COVID-19. METHODS: This is a retrospective review of adult patients admitted with confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Demographics, clinical characteristics, laboratory data, and clinical outcomes were abstracted. BMI (kilograms per meter squared) was analyzed with regard to a composite outcome of intensive care unit (ICU) admission or death and intubation rate. RESULTS: About 770 patients were included (61% male, mean age 63.5 years). Patients with obesity were more likely to present with fever, cough, and shortness of breath. Obesity was also associated with a significantly higher rate of ICU admission or death (RR = 1.58, P = 0.002) even after adjusting for age, race, and troponin level. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with obesity had an increased risk for critical illness leading to ICU admission or death compared with normal weight individuals. This study confirms that obesity is a major risk factor for COVID-19 disease severity, significantly impacting disease presentation and critical care requirements.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/complications , Obesity/complications , Pneumonia, Viral/complications , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Female , Hospitalization , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , New York City/epidemiology , Obesity/epidemiology , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Prevalence , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , Treatment Outcome
8.
World J Gastroenterol ; 26(14): 1546-1553, 2020 Apr 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-122463

ABSTRACT

The current pandemic due to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 has caused an extreme burden for health care systems globally, and the number of cases is expected to continue to increase, at least in the immediate future. The virus is estimated to have infected more than 1.5 million individuals. The available reports suggest that gastrointestinal (GI) involvement in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is common and in some cases the GI symptoms may precede the respiratory symptoms. In addition to direct effects of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, the infected patients remain at risk for the complications commonly managed by gastroenterology and hepatology consultants. The most commonly reported GI manifestation of COVID-19 is diarrhea, which is reported in a third to up to more than half of the patients. Mild to moderate elevation of the liver enzymes are also common, although no case of acute liver failure has been reported so far. Many of the medications used for treatment of COVID-19 can also be associated with GI symptoms or liver injury and can be included in the differential diagnosis in these patients. Although the diagnosis of the infection is currently based on RNA analysis in respiratory samples, the available literature on fecal shedding of this virus suggests that fecal RNA testing might prove to be a useful diagnostic test. It is reasonable to delay all non-urgent endoscopic procedures during the peak of the pandemic and use additional protective equipment such as N95 respirators during endoscopy while most patients can be considered high risk for having been exposed to the virus.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/complications , Gastrointestinal Diseases/etiology , Pneumonia, Viral/complications , Animals , Consultants , Diarrhea/etiology , Humans , Pandemics
9.
Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol ; 18(8): 1673-1681, 2020 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-102150

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic seemingly is peaking now in New York City and has triggered significant changes to the standard management of gastrointestinal diseases. Priorities such as minimizing viral transmission, preserving personal protective equipment, and freeing hospital beds have driven unconventional approaches to managing gastroenterology (GI) patients. Conversion of endoscopy units to COVID units and redeployment of GI fellows and faculty has profoundly changed the profile of most GI services. Meanwhile, consult and procedural volumes have been reduced drastically. In this review, we share our collective experiences regarding how we have changed our practice of medicine in response to the COVID surge. Although we review our management of specific consults and conditions, the overarching theme focuses primarily on noninvasive measures and maximizing medical therapies. Endoscopic procedures have been reserved for those timely interventions that are most likely to be therapeutic. The role of multidisciplinary discussion, although always important, now has become critical. The support of our faculty and trainees remains essential. Local leadership can encourage well-being by frequent team check-ins and by fostering trainee development through remote learning. Advancing a clear vision and a transparent process for how to organize and triage care in the recovery phase will allow for a smooth transition to our new normal.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Disease Management , Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention & control , Gastroenterology/methods , Gastroenterology/organization & administration , Infection Control/methods , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Humans , New York City/epidemiology , Pandemics
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