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1.
Infect Dis (Lond) ; 54(12): 909-917, 2022 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2037301

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The actual number of deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to be higher than the reported deaths. We aimed to estimate the number of deaths in Iran during the COVID-19 pandemic from December 22, 2019 to March 20, 2022. METHODS: We compared the number of age- and sex-specific deaths reported by Iran's Bureau of Vital Statistics with the predicted deaths estimated using an improved Lee-Carter model. We estimated the number of all-cause excess deaths in three scenarios, including the baseline scenario (without any undercounting of deaths) and 4% and 8% undercounting of all-cause deaths. RESULTS: We estimated 282,378 (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 225,439; 341,951) excess deaths in the baseline model. This number was 303,148 (95% CI: 246,417; 357,823) and 308,486 (95% CI: 250,607; 364,417) in the 4% and 8% scenarios, respectively. During the same period, Iran reported 139,610 deaths as being directly related to COVID-19. The ratio of reported COVID-19 deaths to total excess deaths ranged from 45.2% to 49.4% in the various scenarios. Most excess deaths occurred in the baseline scenario in males (157,552 [95% CI: 125,142; 191,265]) and those aged ≥75 years (102,369 [95% CI: 93,894; 111,188]). CONCLUSIONS: The reported number of COVID-19 deaths was less than half of Iran's estimated number of excess deaths. The results of this study will be helpful for health policymakers' planning, and call for strengthening the timeliness and accuracy of Iran's death registration systems, planning for more accurate monitoring of epidemics, and planning to provide support services for survivors' families.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Male , Female , Humans , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , Iran/epidemiology
2.
Med J Islam Repub Iran ; 36: 98, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2026777

ABSTRACT

Background: People living with HIV (PLHIV) and those at risk of HIV are marginalized worldwide and need to reach services regularly. The COVID-19 pandemic can disrupt the HIV care continuum. This study aimed to identify the extent to which HIV-related services have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and how we can overcome these challenges. Methods: In this rapid review, we systematically searched PubMed and Scopus databases, the references of studies, international agencies, and studies "cited by" feature in google scholar till May 28, 2021, without restrictions to language. Results: Among the total of 1,121 studies, 31 of them were included in the review. The most important HIV-related services affected by the COVID-19 pandemic were; access to anti-retroviral drugs, HIV testing, periodic HIV-related testing in people living with HIV (PLHIV), pre-exposure prophylaxis, post-exposure prophylaxis, harm reduction services, psychological and counseling services. Some factors were introduced to mitigate the effects of these challenges, including increasing the resilience of health, protecting health care workers and their clients against COVID-19 through vaccination, providing HIV-related services through telehealth, and multi-month dispensing (MMD) of medicines. Conclusion: The results of this review study showed that PLHIV had difficulty in accessing follow-up, care and treatment services during the COVID-19 pandemic. Programs such as the MMD or telemedicine can be useful in providing services to PLHIV during the pandemic.

3.
BMC Public Health ; 22(1): 1681, 2022 09 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2009375

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 related stigma has been identified as a critical issue since the beginning of the pandemic. We developed a valid and reliable questionnaire to measure COVID-19 related enacted stigma, inflicted by the non-infected general population. We applied the questionnaire to measure COVID-19 related enacted stigma among Tehran citizens from 27 to 30 September 2020. METHODS: A preliminary questionnaire with 18 items was developed. The total score ranged from 18 to 54; a higher score indicated a higher level of COVID-19 related stigma. An expert panel assessed the face and content validity. Of 1637 randomly recruited Tehran citizens without a history of COVID-19 infection, 1064 participants consented and were interviewed by trained interviewers by phone. RESULTS: Item content validity index (I-CVI), Item content validity ratio (I-CVR), and Item face validity index (I-FVI) were higher than 0.78 for all 18 items. The content and face validity were established with a scale content validity index (S-CVI) of 0.90 and a scale face validity index (S-CVI) of 93.9%, respectively. Internal consistency of the questionnaire with 18 items was confirmed with Cronbach's alpha of 0.625. Exploratory factor analysis revealed five latent variables, including "blaming", "social discrimination", "dishonor label", "interpersonal contact", and "retribution and requital attitude". The median of the stigma score was 24 [25th percentile: 22, 75the percentile: 28]. A large majority (86.8%) of participants reported a low level of stigma with a score below 31. None of the participants showed a high level of stigma with a score above 43. We found that the higher the educational level the lower the participant's stigma score. CONCLUSION: We found a low level of stigmatizing thoughts and behavior among the non-infected general population in Tehran, which may be due to the social desirability effect, to the widespread nature of COVID-19, or to the adaptation to sociocultural diversity of the large city.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiology , Humans , Iran/epidemiology , Psychometrics , Reproducibility of Results , Social Stigma , Surveys and Questionnaires
4.
Bulletin of the World Health Organization ; 100(8):474-483, 2022.
Article in English | EuropePMC | ID: covidwho-1970518

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, hospitalizations and deaths in Iranians vaccinated with either AZD1222 Vaxzevria, CovIran® vaccine, SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine (Vero Cell), Inactivated (lnCoV) or Sputnik V. Methods We enrolled individuals 18 years or older receiving their first COVID-19 vaccine dose between April 2021 and January 2022 in seven Iranian cities. Participants completed weekly follow-up surveys for 17 weeks (25 weeks for AZD1222) to report their COVID-19 status and hospitalization. We used Cox regression models to assess risk factors for contracting COVID-19, hospitalization and death. Findings Of 89 783 participants enrolled, incidence rates per 1 000 000 person-days were: 528.2 (95% confidence interval, CI: 514.0–542.7) for contracting COVID-19;55.8 (95% CI: 51.4–60.5) for hospitalization;and 4.1 (95% CI: 3.0–5.5) for death. Compared with SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine (Vero Cell), hazard ratios (HR) for contracting COVID-19 were: 0.70 (95% CI: 0.61−0.80) with AZD1222;0.73 (95% CI: 0.62–0.86) with Sputnik V;and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.63–0.86) with CovIran®. For hospitalization and death, all vaccines provided similar protection 14 days after the second dose. History of COVID-19 protected against contracting COVID-19 again (HR: 0.76;95% CI: 0.69–0.84). Diabetes and respiratory, cardiac and renal disease were associated with higher risks of contracting COVID-19 after vaccination. Conclusion The rates of contracting COVID-19 after vaccination were relatively high. SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine (Vero Cell) provided lower protection against COVID-19 than other vaccines. People with comorbidities had higher risks of contracting COVID-19 and hospitalization and should be prioritized for preventive interventions.

5.
BMC Public Health ; 22(1): 1153, 2022 06 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1951158

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: New vaccines that are initially approved in clinical trials are not completely free of risks. Systematic vaccine safety surveillance is required for ensuring safety of vaccines. This study aimed to provide a protocol for safety monitoring of COVID-19 vaccines, including Sputnik V, Sinopharm (BBIBP-CorV), COVIran Barekat, and AZD1222. METHODS: This is a prospective cohort study in accordance with a template provided by the World Health Organization. The target population includes citizens of seven cities in Iran who have received one of the available COVID-19 vaccines according to the national instruction on vaccination. The participants are followed for three months after they receive the second dose of the vaccine. For each type of vaccine, 30,000 people will be enrolled in the study of whom the first 1,000 participants are in the reactogenicity subgroup. The reactogenicity outcomes will be followed seven days after vaccination. Any hospitalization, COVID-19 disease, or other minor outcomes will be investigated in weekly follow-ups. The data are gathered through self-reporting of participants in a mobile application or phone calls to them. The study outcomes may be investigated for the third and fourth doses of vaccines. Other long-term outcomes may also be investigated after the expansion of the follow-up period. We have planned to complete data collection for the current objectives by the end 2022. DISCUSSION: The results of this study will be published in different articles. A live dashboard is also available for managers and policymakers. All data will be available on reasonable requests from the corresponding author.The use of the good and comprehensive guidelines provided by WHO, along with the accurate implementation of the protocol and continuous monitoring of the staff performance are the main strengths of this study which may be very useful for policymaking about COVID-19 vaccination.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines , COVID-19 , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19 Vaccines/adverse effects , ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 , Humans , Iran/epidemiology , Prospective Studies , Research Design , SARS-CoV-2 , Vaccination/adverse effects
6.
J Assoc Nurses AIDS Care ; 33(4): 386-394, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1909013

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT: We explored the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on people living with HIV (PLWH) in Kerman, Iran. A convenience sample of 18 PLWH from a voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) center (August-October 2020) were invited to participate in face-to-face interviews. Inductive content analysis was performed with MAXQDA software. Six themes were identified: COVID-19-related knowledge and preventive practices, misconceptions about COVID-19, fear of seeking health care services, psychosocial effects, limited or inconvenient access to health care services, and the impact of COVID-19 on socioeconomic status. Although participants generally understood COVID-19 preventative measures, some held misconceptions. COVID-19 negatively affected PLWHs' mental health, financial stability, and use of and access to health care services. Our findings support expansion of services related to HIV care/treatment and mental health to promote health and well-being during the COVID-19 pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , HIV Infections , HIV Infections/psychology , Health Promotion , Humans , Iran/epidemiology , Pandemics
7.
BMC Public Health ; 22(1): 1031, 2022 05 23.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1862122

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The first large serosurvey in Iran found a SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence of 17.1% among the general population in the first wave of the epidemic by April, 2020. The purpose of the current study was to assess the seroprevalence of COVID-19 infection among Iranian general population after the third wave of the disease. METHODS: This population-based cross-sectional study was conducted on 7411 individuals aged ≥10 years old in 16 cities across 15 provinces in Iran between January and March, 2021. We randomly sampled individuals registered in the Iranian electronic health record system based on their national identification numbers and invited them by telephone to a healthcare center for data collection. Presence of SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG and IgM antibodies was assessed using the SARS-CoV-2 ELISA kits. The participants were also asked about their recent COVID-19-related symptoms, including cough, fever, chills, sore throat, headache, dyspnea, diarrhea, anosmia, conjunctivitis, weakness, myalgia, arthralgia, altered level of consciousness, and chest pain. The seroprevalence was estimated after adjustment for population weighting and test performance. RESULTS: The overall population-weighted seroprevalence adjusted for test performance was 34.2% (95% CI 31.0-37.3), with an estimated 7,667,874 (95% CI 6,950,412-8,362,915) infected individuals from the 16 cities. The seroprevalence varied between the cities, from the highest estimate in Tabriz (39.2% [95% CI 33.0-45.5]) to the lowest estimate in Kerman (16.0% [95% CI 10.7-21.4]). In the 16 cities studied, 50.9% of the seropositive individuals did not report a history of symptoms suggestive of COVID-19, implying an estimation of 3,902,948 (95% CI 3,537,760-4,256,724) asymptomatic infected individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Nearly one in three individuals were exposed to SARS-CoV-2 in the studied cities by March 2021. The seroprevalence increased about two-fold between April, 2020, and March, 2021.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Antibodies, Viral , COVID-19/epidemiology , Child , Cross-Sectional Studies , Humans , Immunoglobulin G , Iran/epidemiology , Seroepidemiologic Studies
8.
Comput Math Methods Med ; 2022: 6624471, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1816854

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 is spreading all over Iran, and Kerman is one of the most affected cities. We conducted this study to predict COVID-19-related deaths, hospitalization, and infected cases under different scenarios (scenarios A, B, and C) by 31 December 2021 in Kerman. We also aimed to assess the impact of new COVID-19 variants and vaccination on the total number of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospitalizations (scenarios D, E, and F) using the modified susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model. We calibrated the model using deaths reported from the start of the epidemic to August 30, 2021. A Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) uncertainty analysis was used to estimate 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). We also calculated the time-varying reproductive number (R t) following time-dependent methods. Under the worst-case scenario (scenario A; contact rate = 10, self-isolation rate = 30%, and average vaccination shots per day = 5,000), the total number of infections by December 31, 2021, would be 1,625,000 (95% UI: 1,112,000-1,898,000) with 6,700 deaths (95% UI: 5,200-8,700). With the presence of alpha and delta variants without vaccine (scenario D), the total number of infected cases and the death toll were estimated to be 957,000 (95% UI: 208,000-1,463,000) and 4,500 (95% UI: 1,500-7,000), respectively. If 70% of the population were vaccinated when the alpha variant was dominant (scenario E), the total number of infected cases and deaths would be 608,000 (95% UI: 122,000-743,000) and 2,700 (95% UI: 700-4,000), respectively. The R t was ≥1 almost every day during the epidemic. Our results suggest that policymakers should concentrate on improving vaccination and interventions, such as reducing social contacts, stricter limitations for gathering, public education to promote social distancing, incensing case finding and contact tracing, effective isolation, and quarantine to prevent more COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in Kerman.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Humans , Iran/epidemiology , Vaccination
9.
Epidemics ; 38: 100552, 2022 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1757327

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 disease models have aided policymakers in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) with many critical decisions. Many challenges remain surrounding their use, from inappropriate model selection and adoption, inadequate and untimely reporting of evidence, to the lack of iterative stakeholder engagement in policy formulation and deliberation. These issues can contribute to the misuse of models and hinder effective policy implementation. Without guidance on how to address such challenges, the true potential of such models may not be realised. The COVID-19 Multi-Model Comparison Collaboration (CMCC) was formed to address this gap. CMCC is a global collaboration between decision-makers from LMICs, modellers and researchers, and development partners. To understand the limitations of existing COVID-19 disease models (primarily from high income countries) and how they could be adequately support decision-making in LMICs, a desk review of modelling experience during the COVID-19 and past disease outbreaks, two online surveys, and regular online consultations were held among the collaborators. Three key recommendations from CMCC include: A 'fitness-for-purpose' flowchart, a tool that concurrently walks policymakers (or their advisors) and modellers through a model selection and development process. The flowchart is organised around the following: policy aims, modelling feasibility, model implementation, model reporting commitment. Holmdahl and Buckee (2020) A 'reporting standards trajectory', which includes three gradually increasing standard of reports, 'minimum', 'acceptable', and 'ideal', and seeks collaboration from funders, modellers, and decision-makers to enhance the quality of reports over time and accountability of researchers. Malla et al. (2018) A framework for "collaborative modelling for effective policy implementation and evaluation" which extends the definition of stakeholders to funders, ground-level implementers, public, and other researchers, and outlines how each can contribute to modelling. We advocate for standardisation of modelling processes and adoption of country-owned model through iterative stakeholder participation and discuss how they can enhance trust, accountability, and public ownership to decisions.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Health Policy , COVID-19/epidemiology , Humans , Pandemics , Policy Making
10.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 23775, 2021 12 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1565730

ABSTRACT

Early warning tools are crucial for the timely application of intervention strategies and the mitigation of the adverse health, social and economic effects associated with outbreaks of epidemic potential such as COVID-19. This paper introduces, the Epidemic Volatility Index (EVI), a new, conceptually simple, early warning tool for oncoming epidemic waves. EVI is based on the volatility of newly reported cases per unit of time, ideally per day, and issues an early warning when the volatility change rate exceeds a threshold. Data on the daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 are used to demonstrate the use of EVI. Results from the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy and New York State are presented here, based on the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, from January 22, 2020, until April 13, 2021. Live daily updated predictions for all world countries and each of the United States of America are publicly available online. For Italy, the overall sensitivity for EVI was 0.82 (95% Confidence Intervals: 0.75; 0.89) and the specificity was 0.91 (0.88; 0.94). For New York, the corresponding values were 0.55 (0.47; 0.64) and 0.88 (0.84; 0.91). Consecutive issuance of early warnings is a strong indicator of main epidemic waves in any country or state. EVI's application to data from the current COVID-19 pandemic revealed a consistent and stable performance in terms of detecting new waves. The application of EVI to other epidemics and syndromic surveillance tasks in combination with existing early warning systems will enhance our ability to act swiftly and thereby enhance containment of outbreaks.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Pandemics , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , New York/epidemiology , Predictive Value of Tests , Time Factors
12.
Int J Health Policy Manag ; 2021 Jun 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1317429

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: During the first months of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, Iran reported high numbers of infections and deaths. In the following months, the burden of this infection decreased significantly, possibly due to the impact of a package of interventions. We modeled the dynamics of COVID-19 infection in Iran to quantify the impacts of these interventions. METHODS: We used a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model to model the COVID-19 epidemic in Iran, from January 21, 2020 to September 21, 2020. We estimated the 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Under different scenarios, we assessed the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) including physical distancing measures and self-isolation. We also estimated the time-varying reproduction number (Rt ), using our mathematical model and epidemiologic data. RESULTS: If no NPIs were applied, there could have been a cumulative number of 51 800 000 (95% UI: 1 910 000- 77 600 000) COVID-19 infections and 266 000 (95% UI: 119 000-476 000) deaths by September 21, 2020. If physical distancing interventions, such as school/border closures and self-isolation interventions had been introduced a week earlier than they were actually launched, 30.8% and 35.2% reduction in the number of deaths and infections respectively could have been achieved by September 21, 2020. The observed daily number of deaths showed that the Rt was one or more than one almost every day during the analysis period. CONCLUSION: Our models suggest that the NPIs implemented in Iran between January 21, 2020 and September 21, 2020 had significant effects on the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. Our study also showed that the timely implementation of NPIs showed a profound effect on further reductions in the numbers of infections and deaths. This highlights the importance of forecasting and early detection of future waves of infection and of the need for effective preparedness and response capabilities.

13.
JAMA Netw Open ; 4(7): e2120295, 2021 07 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1300327

ABSTRACT

Importance: The COVID-19 pandemic is the greatest global test of health leadership of our generation. There is an urgent need to provide guidance for leaders at all levels during the unprecedented preresolution recovery stage. Objective: To create an evidence- and expertise-informed framework of leadership imperatives to serve as a resource to guide health and public health leaders during the postemergency stage of the pandemic. Evidence Review: A literature search in PubMed, MEDLINE, and Embase revealed 10 910 articles published between 2000 and 2021 that included the terms leadership and variations of emergency, crisis, disaster, pandemic, COVID-19, or public health. Using the Standards for Quality Improvement Reporting Excellence reporting guideline for consensus statement development, this assessment adopted a 6-round modified Delphi approach involving 32 expert coauthors from 17 countries who participated in creating and validating a framework outlining essential leadership imperatives. Findings: The 10 imperatives in the framework are: (1) acknowledge staff and celebrate successes; (2) provide support for staff well-being; (3) develop a clear understanding of the current local and global context, along with informed projections; (4) prepare for future emergencies (personnel, resources, protocols, contingency plans, coalitions, and training); (5) reassess priorities explicitly and regularly and provide purpose, meaning, and direction; (6) maximize team, organizational, and system performance and discuss enhancements; (7) manage the backlog of paused services and consider improvements while avoiding burnout and moral distress; (8) sustain learning, innovations, and collaborations, and imagine future possibilities; (9) provide regular communication and engender trust; and (10) in consultation with public health and fellow leaders, provide safety information and recommendations to government, other organizations, staff, and the community to improve equitable and integrated care and emergency preparedness systemwide. Conclusions and Relevance: Leaders who most effectively implement these imperatives are ideally positioned to address urgent needs and inequalities in health systems and to cocreate with their organizations a future that best serves stakeholders and communities.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Health Personnel , Leadership , Pandemics , Consensus , Disaster Planning , Health Personnel/legislation & jurisprudence , Health Personnel/organization & administration , Humans , Models, Organizational , SARS-CoV-2
14.
Med J Islam Repub Iran ; 34: 95, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1178659

ABSTRACT

Background: Estimation of the basic reproduction number of an infectious disease is an important issue for controlling the infection. Here, we aimed to estimate the basic reproduction number (𝑅0) of COVID-19 in Iran. Methods: To estimate 𝑅0 in Iran and Tehran, the capital, we used 3 different methods: exponential growth rate, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian time-dependent. Daily number of confirmed cases and serial intervals with a mean of 4.27 days and a standard deviation of 3.44 days with gamma distribution were used. Sensitivity analysis was performed to show the importance of generation time in estimating 𝑅0. Results: The epidemic was in its exponential growth 11 days after the beginning of the epidemic (Feb 19, 2020) with doubling time of 1.74 (CI: 1.58-1.93) days in Iran and 1.83 (CI: 1.39-2.71) in Tehran. Nationwide, the value of 𝑅0 from February 19 to 29 using exponential growth method, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian time-dependent methods was 4.70 (95% CI: 4.23-5.23), 3.90 (95% CI: 3.47- 4.36), and 3.23 (95% CI: 2.94-3.51), respectively. In addition, in Tehran, 𝑅0 was 5.14 (95% CI: 4.15-6.37), 4.20 (95% CI: 3.38-5.14), and 3.94 (95% CI: 3.45-4.40) for exponential growth, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian time-dependent methods, respectively. Bayesian time dependent methods usually provide less biased estimates. The results of sensitivity analyses demonstrated that changes in the mean generation time affect estimates of 𝑅0. Conclusion: The estimate of 𝑅0 for the COVID-19 ranged from 3.94 to 5.14 in Tehran and from 3.23 to 4.70 in nationwide using different methods, which were significantly larger than 1, indicating the potential of COVID-19 to cause an outbreak.

15.
J Res Health Sci ; 21(1): e00503, 2021 Jan 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1160325

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Some patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been reported to have developed mild to severe kidney injuries. The current systematic review and meta-analysis was carried out to estimate the prevalence and incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI) among COVID-19 patients. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic review and meta-analysis . METHODS: PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, and MedRxiv databases were searched from December 1, 2019, up to July 27, 2020. Two independent co-authors completed the screening process, data extraction, and quality assessment of the retrieved records. Random-effects meta-analyses were used to determine the pooled prevalence and 95% confidence interval (CI) of AKI among COVID-19 patients. RESULTS: Out of 2,332 unique identified records, 51 studies were included in the review. Overall, the studies were carried out on 25,600 patients. A total of 6,505 patients (in 18 cross-sectional studies) were included to estimate the pooled prevalence of AKI, and 18,934 patients (in 27 cohort studies) were included to determine the pooled incidence of AKI. The pooled prevalence of AKI was estimated as 10.08% (95% CI: 4.59, 17.32; I2=98.56%; P<0.001). Furthermore, the pooled incidence of AKI was 12.78% (95% CI: 7.38, 19.36; I2=99.27%; P<0.001). The mean (95% CI) values of serum creatinine (SCr), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), potassium, and sodium were 76.10 (69.36, 82.84), 4.60 (4.04, 5.30), 3.94 (3.78, 4.11), and 139.30 (138.26, 140.36) mmol/L, respectively. CONCLUSION: The AKI is a considerable complication among COVID-19 patients and should be screened for on clinical examinations. The BUN, SCr, potassium, and sodium levels were within the normal ranges.


Subject(s)
Acute Kidney Injury/diagnosis , Acute Kidney Injury/etiology , Acute Kidney Injury/therapy , COVID-19/complications , Acute Kidney Injury/epidemiology , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/epidemiology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Incidence , Male , Middle Aged , Prevalence , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2
16.
J Res Health Sci ; 21(1): e00505, 2021 Mar 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1158971

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Since the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in Iran, the control and management of the epidemic were headed by the National Headquarter for the Control of COVID-19 Epidemic through setting up different scientific committees, including the COVID-19 National Epidemiology Committee. The present study reviews the missions, structures, achievements, and challenges of the Epidemiology Committee. STUDY DESIGN: A rapid review . METHODS: All relevant reports, documents, guidelines, published literature, and surveillance data related to the establishment, visions, missions, roles, activities, and outputs of the COVID-19 Epidemiology Committee were critically reviewed in this study. RESULTS: The efforts of the committee's working groups may have impacted improvements in data registration/usage, provincial data quality at provincial levels, and perception of the epidemic situation in the provinces. The committees have also played role in informing the policies in different stages of the epidemic through routine or problem-based data/evidence analyses, epidemic investigations, and mathematical modeling. CONCLUSION: The structure and experience gained by the committee can be used in similar situations within and outside the country. To further improve the impacts of our activities, it is essential to have effective interaction, collaboration, and data flow between the committee and a broad range of organizations within and outside the Ministry of Health and Medical Education.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Epidemics/prevention & control , Epidemics/statistics & numerical data , Organizational Objectives , Preventive Medicine/organization & administration , Preventive Medicine/statistics & numerical data , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Female , Humans , Iran/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged
17.
J Ophthalmic Vis Res ; 16(1): 103-112, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1058679

ABSTRACT

Several studies have reported the characteristics of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), yet there is a gap in our understanding of the ocular manifestations of COVID-19. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we investigated the prevalence of ocular manifestations in COVID-19 patients. We searched Pubmed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, and medRxiv from December 1, 2019 to August 11, 2020. Two independent reviewers screened the articles, abstracted the data, and assessed the quality of included studies in duplicate. Thirty-eight studies were eligible after screening of 895 unique articles, with a total of 8,219 COVID-19 patients (55.3% female; n = 3,486 out of 6,308 patients). Using data extracted from cross-sectional studies, we performed random-effects meta-analyses to estimate the pooled prevalence of ocular symptoms along with 95% confidence interval (CI). The prevalence of ocular manifestations was estimated to be 11.03% (95% CI: 5.71-17.72). In the studies that reported the details of observed ocular symptoms, the most common ocular manifestations were dry eye or foreign body sensation (n = 138, 16%), redness (n = 114, 13.3%), tearing (n = 111, 12.8%), itching (n = 109, 12.6%), eye pain (n = 83, 9.6%) and discharge (n = 76, 8.8%). Moreover, conjunctivitis had the highest rate among reported ocular diseases in COVID-19 patients (79 out of 89, 88.8%). The results suggest that approximately one out of ten COVID-19 patients show at least one ocular symptom. Attention to ocular manifestations, especially conjunctivitis, can increase the sensitivity of COVID-19 detection among patients.

18.
Med J Islam Repub Iran ; 34: 133, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1029046

ABSTRACT

Background: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has resulted in a considerable number of deaths worldwide. This ecological study aimed to explore the relationship between COVID-19 hospitalization and mortality with smoking, obesity, and underlying conditions in Iran. Methods: Provincial-level COVID-19 data were obtained from the official reports. Two outcomes were assessed: the total number of hospitalizations and deaths. Data on underlying health conditions, cigarette smoking, and obesity were obtained from national surveys. Negative binomial regression was used to report incident rate (IRR) ratios. Results: As of April 22, 2020, a total number of 43 950 lab-confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations and 5391confirmed COVID-19 deaths were officially reported. Adjusting for underdetection to cover the number of clinically-confirmed COVID-19 cases, a total of 76 962 additional hospitalizations (ie, total lab- and clinically-confirmed hospitalizations = 120 912; 175% increase) and 7558 additional deaths (ie, total lab- and clinically-confirmed deaths = 12 949; 140% increase) were estimated during the same period. Provinces with a higher prevalence of obesity (IRR: 2.75, 95% CI: 1.49, 5.10), cigarette smoking (1.81; 95% CI: 1.01, 3.27), hypertension (1.88; 95% CI: 1.03, 3.44), and diabetes mellitus (1.74; 95% CI: 0.96, 3.16) had a higher likelihood of COVID-19 death rates. Conclusion: Inequality in COVID-19 hospitalization and mortality was observed in provinces whose populations had underlying diseases, in particular, obesity, cigarette smoking, hypertension, and diabetes.

19.
BMJ Glob Health ; 5(12)2020 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-999252

ABSTRACT

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on multiple levels of society. Not only has the pandemic completely overwhelmed some health systems but it has also changed how scientific evidence is shared and increased the pace at which such evidence is published and consumed, by scientists, policymakers and the wider public. More significantly, the pandemic has created tremendous challenges for decision-makers, who have had to implement highly disruptive containment measures with very little empirical scientific evidence to support their decision-making process. Given this lack of data, predictive mathematical models have played an increasingly prominent role. In high-income countries, there is a long-standing history of established research groups advising policymakers, whereas a general lack of translational capacity has meant that mathematical models frequently remain inaccessible to policymakers in low-income and middle-income countries. Here, we describe a participatory approach to modelling that aims to circumvent this gap. Our approach involved the creation of an international group of infectious disease modellers and other public health experts, which culminated in the establishment of the COVID-19 Modelling (CoMo) Consortium. Here, we describe how the consortium was formed, the way it functions, the mathematical model used and, crucially, the high degree of engagement fostered between CoMo Consortium members and their respective local policymakers and ministries of health.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Internationality , Models, Theoretical , Pandemics , Research , COVID-19/physiopathology , Culture , Delivery of Health Care/organization & administration , Global Health , Health Policy , Humans , Public Health , SARS-CoV-2 , Social Class , Uncertainty
20.
Lancet Infect Dis ; 21(4): 473-481, 2021 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-989477

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Rapid increases in cases of COVID-19 were observed in multiple cities in Iran towards the start of the pandemic. However, the true infection rate remains unknown. We aimed to assess the seroprevalence of antibodies against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in 18 cities of Iran as an indicator of the infection rate. METHODS: In this population-based cross-sectional study, we randomly selected and invited study participants from the general population (from lists of people registered with the Iranian electronic health record system or health-care centres) and a high-risk population of individuals likely to have close social contact with SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals through their occupation (from employee lists provided by relevant agencies or companies, such as supermarket chains) across 18 cities in 17 Iranian provinces. Participants were asked questions on their demographic characteristics, medical history, recent COVID-19-related symptoms, and COVID-19-related exposures. Iran Food and Drug Administration-approved Pishtaz Teb SARS-CoV-2 ELISA kits were used to detect SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG and IgM antibodies in blood samples from participants. Seroprevalence was estimated on the basis of ELISA test results and adjusted for population weighting (by age, sex, and city population size) and test performance (according to our independent validation of sensitivity and specificity). FINDINGS: From 9181 individuals who were initially contacted between April 17 and June 2, 2020, 243 individuals refused to provide blood samples and 36 did not provide demographic information and were excluded from the analysis. Among the 8902 individuals included in the analysis, 5372 had occupations with a high risk of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and 3530 were recruited from the general population. The overall population weight-adjusted and test performance-adjusted prevalence of antibody seropositivity in the general population was 17·1% (95% CI 14·6-19·5), implying that 4 265 542 (95% CI 3 659 043-4 887 078) individuals from the 18 cities included were infected by the end of April, 2020. The adjusted seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies varied greatly by city, with the highest estimates found in Rasht (72·6% [53·9-92·8]) and Qom (58·5% [37·2-83·9]). The overall population weight-adjusted and test performance-adjusted seroprevalence in the high-risk population was 20·0% (18·5-21·7) and showed little variation between the occupations included. INTERPRETATIONS: Seroprevalence is likely to be much higher than the reported prevalence of COVID-19 based on confirmed COVID-19 cases in Iran. Despite high seroprevalence in a few cities, a large proportion of the population is still uninfected. The potential shortcomings of current public health policies should therefore be identified to prevent future epidemic waves in Iran. FUNDING: Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education. TRANSLATION: For the Farsi translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Adult , Antibodies, Viral/blood , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/immunology , COVID-19 Testing , Cities/statistics & numerical data , Cross-Sectional Studies , Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay , Female , Humans , Immunoglobulin G/blood , Immunoglobulin M/blood , Iran/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Prevalence , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , Sensitivity and Specificity , Seroepidemiologic Studies , Young Adult
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