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1.
Future Virol ; 2022 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2029908

ABSTRACT

This review collates information on the onset of COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2 genome architecture, emergence of novel viral lineages that drove multiple waves of infection around the world and standard and fast track development of vaccines. With the passage of time, the continuously evolving SARS-CoV-2 has acquired an expanded mutational landscape. The functional characterization of spike protein mutations, the primary target of diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines has revealed increased transmission, pathogenesis and immune escape potential in the variant lineages of the virus. The incurred mutations have also resulted in substantial viral neutralization escape to vaccines, monoclonal, polyclonal and convalescent antibodies presently in use. The present situation suggests the need for development of precise next-generation vaccines and therapeutics by targeting the more conservative genomic viral regions for providing adequate protection.

2.
Arch Microbiol ; 204(8): 502, 2022 Jul 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1935760

ABSTRACT

Fast and reliable testing for the COVID 19 infection is the need of the hour for the development of effective and reliable tools and assays. However, it is difficult to find the performance relativity among all these tests which are poorly understood. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the two different platforms where we determine the difference of sensitivity and specificity between the fully automated analyzer (Roche Diagnostics Cobas 6800 SARS-CoV-2 test) under FDA Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) and the laboratory designed test (SARS-CoV-2 rRT-PCR) based on the protocol developed by ICMR (Indian Council for Medical Research). The study was conducted for individual samples. We performed our study with two different approaches, first with validation method consisting of 188 samples (2 batches) on cobas 6800 instrument (Roche Molecular Systems, Branchburg, NJ) soon after we received US FDA EUA on 1 June 2021, all these samples were tested earlier with laboratory designed tests on 25th and 26th May 2021. Over all agreement between the two tests is of 88% and the coefficient of agreement between the two testing platform Cohen'sκ coefficient was found to be 0.76 (95% CI, 2.5897-13.4103) suggesting the substantial agreement between the two platforms. However, in some of the cases, both tests have shown a little disagreement. An overall discordance rate between two systems was found 11.1%. The difference may be due to the limit of detection, variation in the sequences of the primer design or may be due to other factors depicting the importance of comparing the two platforms used in the testing for SARS-CoV-2. Second approach includes head to head evaluation which comprises 1631 samples showed overall agreement of 99% and kappa value of 0.98. These results showed that cobas is effective and reliable assay for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19 Testing , Clinical Laboratory Techniques/methods , Humans , Molecular Diagnostic Techniques/methods , Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Sensitivity and Specificity
3.
Future virology ; 2022.
Article in English | EuropePMC | ID: covidwho-1898147

ABSTRACT

This review collates information on the onset of COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2 genome architecture, emergence of novel viral lineages that drove multiple waves of infection around the world and standard and fast track development of vaccines. With the passage of time, the continuously evolving SARS-CoV-2 has acquired an expanded mutational landscape. The functional characterization of spike protein mutations, the primary target of diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines has revealed increased transmission, pathogenesis and immune escape potential in the variant lineages of the virus. The incurred mutations have also resulted in substantial viral neutralization escape to vaccines, monoclonal, polyclonal and convalescent antibodies presently in use. The present situation suggests the need for development of precise next-generation vaccines and therapeutics by targeting the more conservative genomic viral regions for providing adequate protection.

4.
Future Virol ; 2022 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1887075

ABSTRACT

Aim: The aim of this study was to investigate the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein evolution during the first and second wave of COVID-19 infections in India. Materials & Methods: Detailed mutation analysis was done in 763 samples taken from GISAID for the ten most affected Indian states between March 2020 to August 2021. Results: The study revealed 242 mutations corresponding to 207 sites. Fifty one novel mutations emerged during the assessment period, including many with higher transmissibility and immune evasion functions. Highest number of mutations per spike protein also rose from 5 (first wave) to 13 (second wave). Conclusion: The study identified mutation-rich and no mutation regions in the spike protein. The conserved spike regions can be useful for designing future diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics.

5.
Ann Intern Med ; 175(4): 513-522, 2022 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1811218

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) is a potentially life-threatening condition associated with adenoviral-vectored COVID-19 vaccination. It presents similarly to spontaneous heparin-induced thrombocytopenia. Twelve cases of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis after vaccination with the Ad26.COV2.S COVID-19 vaccine (Janssen/Johnson & Johnson) have previously been described. OBJECTIVE: To describe surveillance data and reporting rates of all reported TTS cases after COVID-19 vaccination in the United States. DESIGN: Case series. SETTING: United States. PATIENTS: Case patients receiving a COVID-19 vaccine from 14 December 2020 through 31 August 2021 with thrombocytopenia and thrombosis (excluding isolated ischemic stroke or myocardial infarction) reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System. If thrombosis was only in an extremity vein or pulmonary embolism, a positive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for antiplatelet factor 4 antibodies or functional heparin-induced thrombocytopenia platelet test result was required. MEASUREMENTS: Reporting rates (cases per million vaccine doses) and descriptive epidemiology. RESULTS: A total of 57 TTS cases were confirmed after vaccination with Ad26.COV2.S (n = 54) or a messenger RNA (mRNA)-based COVID-19 vaccine (n = 3). Reporting rates for TTS were 3.83 per million vaccine doses (Ad26.COV2.S) and 0.00855 per million vaccine doses (mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines). The median age of patients with TTS after Ad26.COV2.S vaccination was 44.5 years (range, 18 to 70 years), and 69% of patients were women. Of the TTS cases after mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccination, 2 occurred in men older than 50 years and 1 in a woman aged 50 to 59 years. All cases after Ad26.COV2.S vaccination involved hospitalization, including 36 (67%) with intensive care unit admission. Outcomes of hospitalizations after Ad26.COV2.S vaccination included death (15%), discharge to postacute care (17%), and discharge home (68%). LIMITATIONS: Underreporting and incomplete case follow-up. CONCLUSION: Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome is a rare but serious adverse event associated with Ad26.COV2.S vaccination. The different demographic characteristics of the 3 cases reported after mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines and the much lower reporting rate suggest that these cases represent a background rate. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Thrombocytopenia , Thrombosis , Vaccines , /adverse effects , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19 Vaccines/adverse effects , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , RNA, Messenger , Syndrome , Thrombocytopenia/chemically induced , Thrombocytopenia/epidemiology , Thrombosis/chemically induced , Thrombosis/etiology , United States/epidemiology , Vaccination/adverse effects , Vaccines/adverse effects , Young Adult
6.
J Med Virol ; 94(8): 3521-3539, 2022 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1767363

ABSTRACT

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron with its lineages BA.1, BA.2, and BA.3 has triggered a fresh wave of Covid-19 infections. Though, Omicron has, so far, produced mild symptoms, its genome contains 60 mutations including 37 in the spike protein and 15 in the receptor-binding domain. Thirteen sites conserved in previous SARS-CoV-2 variants carry mutations in Omicron. Many mutations have shown evolution under positive selection. Omicron's giant mutational leap has raised concerns as there are signs of higher virus infectivity rate, pathogenesis, reinfection, and immune evasion. Preliminary studies have reported waning of immunity after two-dose primary vaccine regime, need for the boosters, folds reduction in vaccine effectiveness and neutralizing antibodies even after boosting and significant neutralization resistance with the therapeutic monoclonal, polyclonal, and convalescent antibodies against Omicron. The narrative that "Omicron is mild," therefore, needs time to be tested with a deeper, scientific dwelling into the facts.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Viral Vaccines , Antibodies, Neutralizing , Antibodies, Viral , COVID-19/prevention & control , Humans , Membrane Glycoproteins/genetics , Mutation , Neutralization Tests , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/genetics , Viral Envelope Proteins/genetics
7.
Technology in Society ; : 101970, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-1757865

ABSTRACT

Logistics is a crucial function for any organisation. In the scenario of a pandemic or other disruptions, the role of logistics becomes even more important. Digitalisation of logistics and the supply chain is seen as an important tool for logistics resilience in such situations, but for developing countries digitalisation poses certain challenges. This study identifies barriers to innovative digitalisation technology that hinder the digital elevation of supply chain logistics during a pandemic. Strategies to deal with and overcome these barriers are proposed. The multi-criteria decision analysis method (Bayesian best-worst method) is used to prioritise such barriers within the context of the Indian logistics sector of manufacturing organisations. The strategies are also prioritised according to their impact on the barriers, for which the additive value function is used. The results show that “high cost of investment”, “lack of monetary resources”, “inadequate internet connectivity”, “lack of IT (Information Technology) infrastructure” and “unclear economic benefit of digital investment” are the top five barriers to implementing innovative digitalisation technologies in developing countries like India, during a pandemic situation. The findings reveal an insight into digitalisation barriers during a pandemic that can be of value to managers and researchers.

8.
EuropePMC; 2021.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-321266

ABSTRACT

Rapid and large-scale diagnosis has helped in mitigation the recent ongoing pandemic of corona virus disease of 2019 (COVID-19). The pandemic had a devastating effect on global economy. The molecular detection system has evolved over last two decades and is rapidly replacing the conventional confirmatory techniques in diagnostic virology. However the major limitation in implementation of available molecular detection assays is the non availability of field deployable nucleic acid isolation platform. The standard laboratory diagnosis rely on confirmation of presence of Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in respiratory specimens of suspected patients. Preparation of viral nucleic acid is a critical step involved followed by downstream molecular diagnostic platforms. For good quality of viral RNA extraction many commercial extraction kits, are available. These are developed in a surge of pandemic scenario keeping in view the large demand for testing. The commercial RNA extraction kits available on either column based or magnetic extraction are limited and, alternative, non-commercial protocols are rapidly required. Here, we have standardized an in-house magnetic bead RNA extraction method which utilises simple in-house reagents and manual extraction method that doesn’t require any high-end equipments. The in-house assay was evaluated against the commercial available silica column and magnetic extraction kits using a panel of 100 throat /nasal swab samples. A high correlation in viral RNA detection with TaqMan qRT-PCR was observed with excellent sensitivity and specificity. Interestingly, the developed method is very simple, cost effective, rapid and can be quickly add up any downstream amplification platform for SARS-CoV-2 detection.

9.
Postgrad Med J ; 98(1162): 633-643, 2022 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1560889

ABSTRACT

'Post-COVID-19 syndrome' refers to symptoms in the convalescent phase following initial COVID-19 infection. This term encompasses a wide array of presentation involving lungs, heart and the neuromuscular system. Pulmonary manifestations include post-COVID-19 fibrosis, which is akin to post acute respiratory distress syndrome fibrosis and may reflect the permanent damage to the lungs following an initial bout of infection. Cardiovascular system is often involved, and the presentation can be in terms of acute coronary syndrome, myocarditis and heart failure. Clinical manifestations are often varied and non-specific, which entails a detailed workup and a multidisciplinary approach. Post-COVID-19 syndrome adds to the overall disease morbidity and leads to a prolonged hospital stay, greater healthcare utilisation and loss of productivity marring the country's dwindling economy. Thus, it is imperative that post-COVID-19 syndrome be prevented and identified early followed by a prompt treatment.


Subject(s)
Acute Coronary Syndrome , COVID-19 , Myocarditis , COVID-19/complications , Fibrosis , Humans , Myocarditis/diagnosis , Myocarditis/therapy , SARS-CoV-2
10.
EuropePMC; 2021.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-295956

ABSTRACT

Background Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) is a potentially life-threatening condition associated with adenoviral-vectored COVID-19 vaccination. TTS presents similarly to autoimmune heparin-induced thrombocytopenia. Twelve cases of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis following Janssen/Johnson & Johnson (Ad26.COV2.S) COVID-19 vaccination have been described. Objective Describe surveillance data and reporting rates of TTS cases following COVID-19 vaccination. Design Case series. Setting United States Patients Case-patients reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) receiving COVID-19 vaccine from December 14, 2020 through August 31, 2021, with thrombocytopenia and thrombosis (excluding isolated ischemic stroke or myocardial infarction). If thrombosis was only in an extremity vein or pulmonary embolism, a positive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for anti-platelet factor 4 antibody was required. Measurements Reporting rates (cases/million vaccine doses) and descriptive epidemiology. Results 52 TTS cases were confirmed following Ad26.COV2.S (n=50) or mRNA-based COVID-19 (n=2) vaccination. TTS reporting rates were 3.55 per million (Ad26.COV2.S) and 0.0057 per million (mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines). Median age of patients with TTS following Ad26.COV2.S vaccination was 43.5 years (range: 18–70);70% were female. Both TTS cases following mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccination occurred in males aged >50 years. All cases following Ad26.COV2.S vaccination involved hospitalization including 32 (64%) with intensive care unit admission. Outcomes of hospitalizations following Ad26.COV2.S vaccination included death (12%), discharge to post-acute care (16%), and discharge home (72%). Limitations Under-reporting and incomplete case follow-up. Conclusion TTS is a rare but serious adverse event associated with Ad26.COV2.S vaccination. The different demographic characteristics of the two cases reported after mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines and the much lower reporting rate suggest that these cases represent a background rate. Funding Source CDC

11.
Monaldi Arch Chest Dis ; 92(2)2021 Sep 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1412860

ABSTRACT

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2 has varied manifestation with multisystem involvement. Acute coronary syndrome in COVID-19 as a result of stent thrombosis is an uncommon entity and is often due to hypercoagulable state. A 40-year-old male was referred to us with acute onset chest pain. He also reported fever, sore throat and dry cough for six days which mandated testing for COVID-19 which turned out to be positive. He had a prior history of coronary artery disease with a drug eluting stent implanted two years back. An electrocardiogram was suggestive of acute anterior wall myocardial infarction while echocardiogram revealed hypokinesia of left anterior descending (LAD) artery territory. Coronary angiogram revealed non-occlusive thrombus in proximal LAD stent. A Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) III flow was restored following balloon angioplasty with a non-compliant balloon and use of glycoprotein (GP) IIb-IIIa receptor antagonist. A diagnosis of very late stent thrombosis subsequent to COVID-19 was made.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Drug-Eluting Stents , Thrombosis , Adult , COVID-19/complications , COVID-19 Testing , Drug-Eluting Stents/adverse effects , Humans , Male , Platelet Aggregation Inhibitors , SARS-CoV-2 , Stents/adverse effects , Thrombosis/diagnostic imaging , Thrombosis/etiology
12.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 18126, 2021 09 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1406407

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 has emerged as global pandemic with largest damage to the public health, economy and human psyche.The genome sequence data obtained during the ongoing pandemic are valuable to understand the virus evolutionary patterns and spread across the globe. Increased availability of genome information of circulating SARS-CoV-2 strains in India will enable the scientific community to understand the emergence of new variants and their impact on human health. The first case of COVID-19 was detected in Chambal region of Madhya Pradesh state in mid of March 2020 followed by multiple introduction events and expansion of cases within next three months. More than 5000 COVID-19 suspected samples referred to Defence Research and Development Establishment, Gwalior, Madhya Pradesh were analyzed during the nation -wide lockdown and unlock period. A total of 136 cases were found positive over a span of three months that included virus introduction to the region and its further spread. Whole genome sequences employing Oxford nanopore technology were generated for 26 SARS-CoV-2 circulating in 10 different districts in Madhya Pradesh state of India. This period witnessed index cases with multiple travel histories responsible for introduction of COVID-19 followed by remarkable expansion of virus. The genome wide substitutions including in important viral proteins were identified. The detailed phylogenetic analysis revealed the circulating SARS-CoV-2 clustered in multiple clades including A2a, A4 and B. The cluster-wise segregation was observed, suggesting multiple introduction links and subsequent evolution of virus in the region. This is the first comprehensive whole genome sequence analysis from central India, which revealed the emergence and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 during thenation-wide lockdown and unlock.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/diagnosis , Mutation, Missense , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/genetics , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/virology , Evolution, Molecular , Genome, Viral/genetics , India , Multiplex Polymerase Chain Reaction/methods , Pandemics/prevention & control , Phylogeny , SARS-CoV-2/classification , SARS-CoV-2/physiology , Whole Genome Sequencing/methods
13.
J Med Virol ; 93(9): 5505-5514, 2021 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1363687

ABSTRACT

The impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnant women and their neonates is an area of research interest nowadays. To date, there is limited knowledge about SARS-CoV-2 prevalence, maternal and perinatal outcomes of pregnant women at term in middle- and low-income countries. In the present retro-prospective study, medical records of pregnant women admitted for delivery were reviewed from the largest Covid-19 dedicated Shri Maharaja Gulab Singh (SMGS) maternity hospital. The SARS-CoV-2 screening was carried out for all pregnant women admitted for delivery using RT-PCR. All neonates born from SARS-CoV-2-positive mothers were isolated and tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Most of the pregnant women (90.6%) were asymptomatic at the time of admission with a low prevalence (3.4%) of SARS-CoV-2. A higher rate of asymptomatic prevalence (86.1%) was found among SARS-CoV-2-positive pregnant women. On the basis of the RT-PCR result (negative vs. positive), statistically significant differences were found for maternal characteristics, such as mean gestational age (37.5 ± 2.2 vs. 36.6 ± 3.3), medical comorbidity (2.9% vs. 7.4%), and maternal outcomes like the C-section rate (29.8% vs. 58.3%), preterm delivery (14.6% vs. 28.3), and neonatal outcomes like mean birth weight (2840 ± 450 vs. 2600 ± 600), low Apgar score (2.7% vs. 6.48%), and fetal distress (10.9% vs. 22.2%) among SARS-CoV-2 negative and positive cases, respectively. No neonate from SARS-CoV-2-positive pregnant women was found to be positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/epidemiology , Pregnancy Complications, Infectious/diagnosis , Pregnancy Complications, Infectious/epidemiology , Pregnancy Outcome/epidemiology , Adult , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing , Cesarean Section/statistics & numerical data , Female , Fetal Distress/epidemiology , Fetal Distress/virology , Gestational Age , Hospitals, Maternity , Humans , India/epidemiology , Infant, Newborn , Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical/prevention & control , Male , Pregnancy , Pregnancy Complications, Infectious/prevention & control , Premature Birth/epidemiology , Premature Birth/virology , Prevalence , Prospective Studies , Retrospective Studies , Young Adult
14.
Indian Heart J ; 72(6): 593-598, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-907126

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has led to a widespread morbidity and mortality. Limited data exists regarding the involvement of cardiovascular system in COVID-19 patients. We sought to evaluate the cardiovascular (CV) complications and its impact on outcomes in symptomatic COVID-19 patients. METHODS: This was a single center observational study among symptomatic COVID-19 patients. Data regarding clinical profile, laboratory investigations, CV complications, treatment and outcomes were collected. Cardiac biomarkers and 12 lead electrocardiograms were done in all while echocardiography was done in those with clinical indications for the same. Corrected QT-interval (QTc) at baseline and maximum value during hospitalization were computed. RESULTS: Of the 108 patients, majority of them were males with a mean age of 51.2 ± 17.7 years. Hypertension (38%) and diabetes (32.4%) were most prevalent co-morbidities. ECG findings included sinus tachycardia in 18 (16.9%), first degree AV block in 5 (4.6%), VT/VF in 2 (1.8%) and sinus bradycardia in one (0.9%). QTc prolongation was observed in 17.6% subjects. CV complications included acute cardiac injury in 25.9%, heart failure, cardiogenic shock and acute coronary syndrome in 3.7% each, "probable" myocarditis in 2.8% patients. Patients with acute cardiac injury had higher mortality than those without (16/28 [57.1%] vs 14/78 [17.5%]; P < 0.0001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that acute cardiac injury (OR: 11.3), lymphopenia (OR: 4.91), use of inotropic agents (OR: 2.46) and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (OR:1.1) were independent predictors of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: CV complications such as acute cardiac injury is common in COVID-19 patients and is associated with worse prognosis.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/complications , Cardiovascular Diseases/etiology , Hospitalization/trends , COVID-19/epidemiology , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Cardiovascular Diseases/therapy , Comorbidity , Electrocardiography , Female , Humans , Incidence , India/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Prognosis , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2
15.
JMIR Public Health Surveill ; 6(2): e19115, 2020 05 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-258567

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has affected more than 200 countries and has infected more than 2,800,000 people as of April 24, 2020. It was first identified in Wuhan City in China in December 2019. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to identify the top 15 countries with spatial mapping of the confirmed cases. A comparison was done between the identified top 15 countries for confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries, and an advanced autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for predicting the COVID-19 disease spread trajectories for the next 2 months. METHODS: The comparison of recent cumulative and predicted cases was done for the top 15 countries with confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries from COVID-19. The spatial map is useful to identify the intensity of COVID-19 infections in the top 15 countries and the continents. The recent reported data for confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries for the last 3 months was represented and compared between the top 15 infected countries. The advanced ARIMA model was used for predicting future data based on time series data. The ARIMA model provides a weight to past values and error values to correct the model prediction, so it is better than other basic regression and exponential methods. The comparison of recent cumulative and predicted cases was done for the top 15 countries with confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries from COVID-19. RESULTS: The top 15 countries with a high number of confirmed cases were stratified to include the data in a mathematical model. The identified top 15 countries with cumulative cases, deaths, and recoveries from COVID-19 were compared. The United States, the United Kingdom, Turkey, China, and Russia saw a relatively fast spread of the disease. There was a fast recovery ratio in China, Switzerland, Germany, Iran, and Brazil, and a slow recovery ratio in the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Russia, and Italy. There was a high death rate ratio in Italy and the United Kingdom and a lower death rate ratio in Russia, Turkey, China, and the United States. The ARIMA model was used to predict estimated confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries for the top 15 countries from April 24 to July 7, 2020. Its value is represented with 95%, 80%, and 70% confidence interval values. The validation of the ARIMA model was done using the Akaike information criterion value; its values were about 20, 14, and 16 for cumulative confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries of COVID-19, respectively, which represents acceptable results. CONCLUSIONS: The observed predicted values showed that the confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries will double in all the observed countries except China, Switzerland, and Germany. It was also observed that the death and recovery rates were rose faster when compared to confirmed cases over the next 2 months. The associated mortality rate will be much higher in the United States, Spain, and Italy followed by France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The forecast analysis of the COVID-19 dynamics showed a different angle for the whole world, and it looks scarier than imagined, but recovery numbers start looking promising by July 7, 2020.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Global Health/statistics & numerical data , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , COVID-19 , Forecasting , Humans , Models, Statistical
16.
Monaldi Arch Chest Dis ; 90(2)2020 May 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-216029

ABSTRACT

A novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, thought to have originated from bats causes COVID-19 infection which was first reported from Wuhan, China in December 2019. This virus has a high infectivity rate and has impacted a significant chunk of the population worldwide. The spectrum of disease ranges from mild to severe with respiratory system being the most commonly affected. Cardiovascular system often gets involved in later stages of the disease with acute cardiac injury, heart failure and arrhythmias being the common complications. In addition, the presence of cardiovascular co-morbidities such as hypertension, coronary artery disease in these patients are often associated with poor prognosis. It is still not clear regarding the exact mechanism explaining cardiovascular system involvement in COVID-19. Multiple theories have been put forward however, more robust studies are required to fully elucidate the "heart and virus" link. The disease has already made its presence felt on the global stage and its impact in the developing countries is going to be profound. These nations not only have a poorly developed healthcare system but there is also a huge burden of cardiovascular diseases. As a result, COVID-19 would adversely impact the already overburdened healthcare network leading to impaired cardiovascular care delivery especially for acute coronary syndrome and heart failure patients.


Subject(s)
Cardiovascular Diseases/complications , Cardiovascular System/virology , Coronavirus Infections/complications , Pneumonia, Viral/complications , Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors/therapeutic use , Arrhythmias, Cardiac/virology , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Cardiovascular Diseases/virology , Comorbidity , Developing Countries , Heart/virology , Heart Transplantation , Humans , Myocarditis/virology , Myocardium/pathology , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction/virology
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