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SSRN; 2022.
Preprint in English | SSRN | ID: ppcovidwho-333480


Background: Paediatric Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome (PIMS-TS) is a rare life-threatening complication that typically occurs several weeks after SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and young people (CYP). We used national and regional-level data from the COVID-19 pandemic wave in England to develop and optimise a model to predict PIMS-TS cases in subsequent waves. Methods: SARS-CoV-2 infections in CYP aged 0-15 years in England were estimated using the PHE-Cambridge real-time model. PIMS-TS cases were identified through the British Paediatric Surveillance Unit during the first pandemic wave (March-June 2020). Since November 2020, cases were identified through Secondary Uses Services (SUS), a national healthcare activity dataset. A predictive model was developed to estimate PIMS-TS risk and lag times after SARS-CoV-2 infection for the Alpha (weeks 1-10, 2021) and Delta (weeks 22-30, 2022) waves. Findings: During the Alpha wave, the model accurately predicted PIMS-TS cases (506 (95% CI: 491-531) vs 502 observed cases), with a median estimated the risk of 0·038% (IQR, 0·037-0·041%;38/100,000 infections) of paediatric SARS-CoV-2 infections. For the Delta wave, the median risk of PIMS-TS was significantly lower at 0·026% (IQR, 0·025-0·029%;27/100,000 infections) , with 212 observed PIMS-TS cases compared to 450 predicted by the model during June-October 2021. Interpretation: We developed a model that accurately predicted national and regional PIMS-TS cases in CYP during the Alpha wave. PIMS-TS cases were, however, 53% lower than predicted during the Delta wave. Further studies are needed to understand the mechanisms of the observed lower risk with the Delta variant.