COVID-19 and policy impacts on the Bangladesh rice market and food security

This research employs a partial equilibrium model to estimate the short- and long-run effects of COVID-19 and rice policies on Bangladesh's rice market and food security. We also analyze the impact of relevant policies in terms of their effectiveness in mitigating stresses stemming from a hypothetical pandemic with a COVID-19-like impact. The results indicate that the effect of COVID-19 on Bangladeshi food security during FY 2019/20 was mixed, as the indicators of food availability improved by 5%, and decreased by 17% for food stability, relative to what they would have been otherwise. Policy simulation results indicate that a higher import tariff improves self-sufficiency status, but undermines rice availability and accessibility by bending the market toward a restrictive trade regime. Results also indicate that unlike stock enhancement policy, closing the existing yield gap improves rice availability, accessibility, and moderates the depressing effect of a future event with repercussions similar to COVID-19, although the yield policy appears more speculative and could be too costly. The insights generated contribute to the understanding of policies that aim to achieve sustainable development goals related to aggregate food security, and build resilience against future shocks akin to COVID-19.

Consumer preferences for grocery purchasing during the COVID-19 pandemic: a quantile regression approach

Purpose The objective is to determine if consumer preferences for grocery purchasing are impacted by the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic and whether these preferences differ by demographic and psychographic characteristics. Design/methodology/approach The authors conduct an online discrete choice experiment (DCE) with 900 U.S. consumers to assess grocery shopping preferences under various scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic (i.e. decreasing, constant and increasing cases). The attribute of interest is the purchasing method (i.e. in-store purchase, in-store pickup, curbside pickup and home delivery) with minimum order requirements, time windows and fees as secondary attributes. Heterogeneity in individual-level willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates for the main attribute is analyzed by means of mixed logit and quantile regression techniques. Findings The mixed logit model reveals heterogeneity in WTP estimates for grocery purchasing methods across participants. According to estimates from quantile regressions, the heterogeneity is partly explained by the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, the home delivery purchasing method is less preferred when the number of cases is decreasing. The results also show that consumer preferences for grocery shopping methods are affected more by psychographic characteristics than demographic characteristics. Consumers who comply with COVID-19 directives (e.g. wear face coverings) have stronger preferences for curbside pickup and home delivery, particularly at the tails of the WTP distributions. Originality/value Although there is much data on food consumer behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic at the aggregate level, there are few analyses of grocery shopping preferences at the individual level. The study represents a first attempt to relate individuals' demographic and psychographic characteristics to their grocery shopping preferences during the COVID-19 pandemic, thus yielding numerous recommendations in terms of consumer segmentation.