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1.
Am J Transplant ; 22(11): 2616-2626, 2022 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1895940

ABSTRACT

Potential regional variations in effects of COVID-19 on federally mandated, program-specific evaluations by the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) have been controversial. SRTR January 2022 program evaluations ended transplant follow-up on March 12, 2020, and excluded transplants performed from March 13, 2020 to June 12, 2020 (the "carve-out"). This study examined the carve-out's impact, and the effect of additionally censoring COVID-19 deaths, on first-year posttransplant outcomes for transplants from July 2018 through December 2020. Program-specific hazard ratios (HRs) for graft failure and death estimated under two alternative scenarios were compared with published HRs: (1) the carve-out was removed; (2) the carve-out was retained, but deaths due to COVID-19 were additionally censored. The HRs estimated by censoring COVID-19 deaths were highly correlated with those estimated with the carve-out alone (r2  = .96). Removal of the carve-out resulted in greater variation in HRs while remaining highly correlated (r2  = .82); however, little geographic impact of the carve-out was observed. The carve-out increased average HR in the Northwest by 0.049; carve-out plus censoring reduced average HR in the Midwest by 0.009. Other regions of the country were not significantly affected. Thus, the current COVID-19 carve-out does not appear to impart substantial bias based on the region of the country.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Tissue and Organ Procurement , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Program Evaluation , Pandemics , Transplant Recipients , Registries
2.
Am J Transplant ; 22(8): 2077-2082, 2022 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1745981

ABSTRACT

Estimating the total coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mortality burden of solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs), both directly through COVID-19 infection and indirectly through other impacts on the healthcare system and society, is critical for understanding the disease's impact on the SOTR population. Using SRTR data, we modeled expected mortality risk per month pre-COVID (January 2015-February 2020) for kidney/liver/heart/lung SOTRs, and compared monthly COVID-era deaths (March 2020-March 2021) to expected rates, overall and among subgroups. Deaths above expected rates were designated "excess deaths." Between March 2020 and March 2021, there were 3739/827/265/252 excess deaths among kidney/liver/heart/lung SOTRs, respectively, representing a 41.2%/27.4%/18.5%/15.0% increase above expected deaths. 93.0% of excess deaths occurred in patients age≥50. The observed:expected ratio was highest among Hispanic SOTRs (1.82) and lowest among White SOTRs (1.20); 56.0% of excess deaths occurred among Black or Hispanic SOTRs. 64.7% of excess deaths occurred among patients who had survived ≥5 years post-transplant. Excess deaths peaked in January 2021; geographic distribution of excess deaths broadly mirrored COVID-19 incidence. COVID-19 likely caused over 5000 excess deaths among SOTRs in the US in a 13-month period, representing 1 in 75 SOTRs and a substantial proportion of all deaths among SOTRs during this time. SOTRs will remain at elevated mortality risk until the COVID-19 pandemic can be controlled.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Organ Transplantation , COVID-19/epidemiology , Humans , Incidence , Middle Aged , Organ Transplantation/adverse effects , Pandemics , Transplant Recipients
3.
Clin Transplant ; 36(5): e14596, 2022 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1626982

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: More patients are waitlisted for solid organs than transplants are performed each year. The COVID-19 pandemic immediately increased waitlist mortality and decreased transplants and listings. METHODS: To calculate the number of candidate listings after the pandemic began and short-term changes that may affect waiting time, we conducted a Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients surveillance study from January 1, 2012 to February 28, 2021. RESULTS: The number of candidates on the liver waitlist continued a steady decline that began before the pandemic. Numbers of candidates on the kidney, heart, and lung waitlists decreased dramatically. More than 3000 fewer candidates were awaiting a kidney transplant on March 7, 2021, than on March 8, 2020. Listings and removals decreased for each solid organ beginning in March 2020. The number of heart and lung listings returned to equal or above that of removals. Listings for kidney transplant, which is often less urgent than heart and lung transplant, remain below numbers of removals. Removals due to transplant decreased for all organs, while removals due to death increased for only kidneys. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence of the predicted surge in listings for solid organ transplant with a plateau or control of the pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Kidney Transplantation , Organ Transplantation , Tissue and Organ Procurement , COVID-19/epidemiology , Humans , Pandemics , Waiting Lists
4.
Am J Transplant ; 21(6): 2262-2268, 2021 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1096670

ABSTRACT

We examined the effects of COVID-19 on solid organ waiting list mortality in the United States and compared effects across patient demographics (e.g., race, age, and sex) and donation service areas. Three separate piecewise exponential survival models estimated for each solid organ the overall, demographic-specific, and donation service area-specific differences in the hazard of waitlist mortality before and after the national emergency declaration on March 13, 2020. Kidney waiting list mortality was higher after than before the national emergency (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.37; 95% CI, 1.23-1.52). The hazard of waitlist mortality was not significantly different before and after COVID-19 for liver (aHR, 0.94), pancreas (aHR, 1.01), lung (aHR, 1.00), and heart (aHR, 0.94). Kidney candidates had notable variability in differences across donation service areas (aHRs, New York City, 2.52; New Jersey, 1.84; and Michigan, 1.56). The only demographic group with increased waiting list mortality were Blacks versus Whites (aHR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.07-1.86) for kidney candidates. The first 10 weeks after the declaration of a national emergency had a heterogeneous effect on waitlist mortality rate, varying by geography and ethnicity. This heterogeneity will complicate comparisons of transplant program performance during COVID-19.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Tissue and Organ Procurement , Humans , Michigan , New York City , SARS-CoV-2 , United States/epidemiology , Waiting Lists
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