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1.
J Int AIDS Soc ; 25(1): e25864, 2022 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1632292

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected women and children globally, disrupting antiretroviral therapy (ART) services and exacerbating pre-existing barriers to care for both pregnant women and paediatric populations. METHODS: We used the Spectrum modelling package and the CEPAC-Pediatric model to project the impact of COVID-19-associated care disruptions on three key populations in the 21 Global Plan priority countries in sub-Saharan Africa: (1) pregnant and breastfeeding women living with HIV and their children, (2) all children (aged 0-14 years) living with HIV (CLWH), regardless of their engagement in care and (3) CLWH who were engaged in care and on ART prior to the start of the pandemic. We projected clinical outcomes over the 12-month period of 1 March 2020 to 1 March 2021. RESULTS: Compared to a scenario with no care disruption, in a 3-month lockdown with complete service disruption, followed by 3 additional months of partial (50%) service disruption, a projected 755,400 women would have received PMTCT care (a 21% decrease), 187,800 new paediatric HIV infections would have occurred (a 77% increase) and 516,800 children would have received ART (a 35% decrease). For children on ART as of March 2020, we projected 507,200 would have experienced ART failure (an 80% increase). Additionally, a projected 88,400 AIDS-related deaths would have occurred (a 27% increase) between March 2020 and March 2021, with 51,700 of those deaths occurring among children engaged in care as of March 2020 (a 54% increase). CONCLUSIONS: While efforts will continue to curb morbidity and mortality stemming directly from COVID-19 itself, it is critical that providers also consider the immediate and indirect harms of this pandemic, particularly among vulnerable populations. Well-informed, timely action is critical to meet the health needs of pregnant women and children if the global community is to maintain momentum towards an AIDS-free generation.


Subject(s)
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome , COVID-19 , HIV Infections , Child , Communicable Disease Control , Female , HIV Infections/drug therapy , HIV Infections/epidemiology , HIV Infections/prevention & control , Humans , Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical/prevention & control , Pandemics , Pregnancy , SARS-CoV-2
2.
PLoS One ; 16(12): e0260820, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1581771

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread disruptions including to health services. In the early response to the pandemic many countries restricted population movements and some health services were suspended or limited. In late 2020 and early 2021 some countries re-imposed restrictions. Health authorities need to balance the potential harms of additional SARS-CoV-2 transmission due to contacts associated with health services against the benefits of those services, including fewer new HIV infections and deaths. This paper examines these trade-offs for select HIV services. METHODS: We used four HIV simulation models (Goals, HIV Synthesis, Optima HIV and EMOD) to estimate the benefits of continuing HIV services in terms of fewer new HIV infections and deaths. We used three COVID-19 transmission models (Covasim, Cooper/Smith and a simple contact model) to estimate the additional deaths due to SARS-CoV-2 transmission among health workers and clients. We examined four HIV services: voluntary medical male circumcision, HIV diagnostic testing, viral load testing and programs to prevent mother-to-child transmission. We compared COVID-19 deaths in 2020 and 2021 with HIV deaths occurring now and over the next 50 years discounted to present value. The models were applied to countries with a range of HIV and COVID-19 epidemics. RESULTS: Maintaining these HIV services could lead to additional COVID-19 deaths of 0.002 to 0.15 per 10,000 clients. HIV-related deaths averted are estimated to be much larger, 19-146 discounted deaths per 10,000 clients. DISCUSSION: While there is some additional short-term risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission associated with providing HIV services, the risk of additional COVID-19 deaths is at least 100 times less than the HIV deaths averted by those services. Ministries of Health need to take into account many factors in deciding when and how to offer essential health services during the COVID-19 pandemic. This work shows that the benefits of continuing key HIV services are far larger than the risks of additional SARS-CoV-2 transmission.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/transmission , Health Services Accessibility/trends , Health Services/trends , COVID-19/complications , COVID-19/epidemiology , HIV Infections/complications , HIV Infections/epidemiology , HIV Infections/therapy , HIV-1/pathogenicity , Health Services Administration , Humans , Models, Theoretical , Pandemics/prevention & control , Risk Assessment/methods , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity
3.
PLoS Med ; 18(10): e1003831, 2021 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1477511

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: UNAIDS has established new program targets for 2025 to achieve the goal of eliminating AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. This study reports on efforts to use mathematical models to estimate the impact of achieving those targets. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We simulated the impact of achieving the targets at country level using the Goals model, a mathematical simulation model of HIV epidemic dynamics that includes the impact of prevention and treatment interventions. For 77 high-burden countries, we fit the model to surveillance and survey data for 1970 to 2020 and then projected the impact of achieving the targets for the period 2019 to 2030. Results from these 77 countries were extrapolated to produce estimates for 96 others. Goals model results were checked by comparing against projections done with the Optima HIV model and the AIDS Epidemic Model (AEM) for selected countries. We included estimates of the impact of societal enablers (access to justice and law reform, stigma and discrimination elimination, and gender equality) and the impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Results show that achieving the 2025 targets would reduce new annual infections by 83% (71% to 86% across regions) and AIDS-related deaths by 78% (67% to 81% across regions) by 2025 compared to 2010. Lack of progress on societal enablers could endanger these achievements and result in as many as 2.6 million (44%) cumulative additional new HIV infections and 440,000 (54%) more AIDS-related deaths between 2020 and 2030 compared to full achievement of all targets. COVID-19-related disruptions could increase new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 10% in the next 2 years, but targets could still be achieved by 2025. Study limitations include the reliance on self-reports for most data on behaviors, the use of intervention effect sizes from published studies that may overstate intervention impacts outside of controlled study settings, and the use of proxy countries to estimate the impact in countries with fewer than 4,000 annual HIV infections. CONCLUSIONS: The new targets for 2025 build on the progress made since 2010 and represent ambitious short-term goals. Achieving these targets would bring us close to the goals of reducing new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90% between 2010 and 2030. By 2025, global new infections and AIDS deaths would drop to 4.4 and 3.9 per 100,000 population, and the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) would be declining. There would be 32 million people on treatment, and they would need continuing support for their lifetime. Incidence for the total global population would be below 0.15% everywhere. The number of PLHIV would start declining by 2023.


Subject(s)
Disease Eradication , Global Health , Goals , HIV Infections/prevention & control , Models, Biological , Models, Theoretical , Public Health , Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/epidemiology , Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/prevention & control , Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/therapy , Adolescent , Adult , COVID-19 , Cause of Death , Epidemics , Female , HIV Infections/epidemiology , HIV Infections/therapy , Humans , Incidence , Male , SARS-CoV-2 , Social Determinants of Health , United Nations , Young Adult
4.
South Afr J HIV Med ; 22(1): 1275, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1478198

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: As the relentless coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to spread across Africa, Botswana could face challenges maintaining the pathway towards control of its HIV epidemic. OBJECTIVE: Utilising the Spectrum GOALS module (GOALS-2021), the 5-year outcomes from the implementation of the Treat All strategy were analysed and compared with the original 2016 Investment Case (2016-IC) projections. Future impact of adopting the new Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) Global AIDS Strategy (2021-2026) targets and macroeconomic analysis estimating how the financial constraints from the COVID-19 pandemic could impact the available resources for Botswana's National HIV Response through 2030 were also considered. METHOD: Programmatic costs, population demographics, prevention and treatment outputs were determined. Previous 2016-IC data were uploaded for comparison, and inputs for the GOALS, AIM, DemProj, Resource Needs and Family Planning modules were derived from published reports, strategic plans, programmatic data and expert opinion. The economic projections were recalibrated with consideration of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: Decreases in HIV infections, incidence and mortality rates were achieved. Increases in laboratory costs were offset by estimated decreases in the population of people living with HIV (PLWH). Moving forward, young women and others at high risk must be targeted in HIV prevention efforts, as Botswana transitions from a generalised to a more concentrated epidemic. CONCLUSION: The Treat All strategy contributed positively to decreases in new HIV infections, mortality and costs. If significant improvements in differentiated service delivery, increases in human resources and HIV prevention can be realised, Botswana could become one of the first countries with a previously high-burdened generalised HIV epidemic to gain epidemic control, despite the demands of the COVID-19 pandemic.

5.
J Int AIDS Soc ; 24 Suppl 5: e25778, 2021 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1427127

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The Spectrum/AIM model is used by national HIV programs and UNAIDS to prepare annual estimates of key HIV indicators. This article describes key updates to paediatric and adult models for the 2021 round of HIV estimates. METHODS: Potential updates to Spectrum arise due to newly available data, new analyses of existing data, and the need for new issues to be addressed. Updates are guided by experts through the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections. Changes are tested and assessed for impact before being accepted into the final model. RESULTS: Spectrum tracks children living with HIV by CD4% for ages 0-4 and CD4 count for ages 5-14. Data from IeDEA treatment sites have been used to map the transition from CD4% to CD4 count at age 5. Breastfeeding patterns in sub-Saharan Africa have been updated with the latest survey data and estimates of continuation on antiretroviral therapy (ART) with breastfeeding have been revised based on recent studies. Model assumptions about the CD4 counts of people who drop out of ART have been revised to account for CD4 count increases while on treatment. If available, monthly data on numbers on ART can now be used to estimate the effects of COVID-19-related disruptions during 2020. CONCLUSIONS: These changes are intended to provide more accurate estimates of HIV burden. The effects of these changes on paediatric indicators are small except in countries with new surveys that might have updated patterns of breastfeeding. Changes to the adult model have little effect on total new infections. AIDS-related deaths will be somewhat lower in countries that have data on ART drop out but might be increased by HIV care disruptions due to COVID-19. The updated model uses newly available data to improve the estimation of paediatric and adult HIV indicators.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , HIV Infections , Adolescent , Adult , Anti-HIV Agents/therapeutic use , CD4 Lymphocyte Count , Child , Child, Preschool , Female , HIV Infections/drug therapy , HIV Infections/epidemiology , Humans , Incidence , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Prevalence , SARS-CoV-2
7.
Lancet HIV ; 7(9): e629-e640, 2020 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-695906

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic could lead to disruptions to provision of HIV services for people living with HIV and those at risk of acquiring HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, where UNAIDS estimated that more than two-thirds of the approximately 38 million people living with HIV resided in 2018. We aimed to predict the potential effects of such disruptions on HIV-related deaths and new infections in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used five well described models of HIV epidemics (Goals, Optima HIV, HIV Synthesis, an Imperial College London model, and Epidemiological MODeling software [EMOD]) to estimate the effect of various potential disruptions to HIV prevention, testing, and treatment services on HIV-related deaths and new infections in sub-Saharan Africa lasting 6 months over 1 year from April 1, 2020. We considered scenarios in which disruptions affected 20%, 50%, and 100% of the population. FINDINGS: A 6-month interruption of supply of antiretroviral therapy (ART) drugs across 50% of the population of people living with HIV who are on treatment would be expected to lead to a 1·63 times (median across models; range 1·39-1·87) increase in HIV-related deaths over a 1-year period compared with no disruption. In sub-Saharan Africa, this increase amounts to a median excess of HIV deaths, across all model estimates, of 296 000 (range 229 023-420 000) if such a high level of disruption occurred. Interruption of ART would increase mother-to-child transmission of HIV by approximately 1·6 times. Although an interruption in the supply of ART drugs would have the largest impact of any potential disruptions, effects of poorer clinical care due to overstretched health facilities, interruptions of supply of other drugs such as co-trimoxazole, and suspension of HIV testing would all have a substantial effect on population-level mortality (up to a 1·06 times increase in HIV-related deaths over a 1-year period due to disruptions affecting 50% of the population compared with no disruption). Interruption to condom supplies and peer education would make populations more susceptible to increases in HIV incidence, although physical distancing measures could lead to reductions in risky sexual behaviour (up to 1·19 times increase in new HIV infections over a 1-year period if 50% of people are affected). INTERPRETATION: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the primary priority for governments, donors, suppliers, and communities should focus on maintaining uninterrupted supply of ART drugs for people with HIV to avoid additional HIV-related deaths. The provision of other HIV prevention measures is also important to prevent any increase in HIV incidence. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.


Subject(s)
Anti-HIV Agents/supply & distribution , Betacoronavirus/pathogenicity , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , HIV Infections/epidemiology , Models, Statistical , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Africa South of the Sahara/epidemiology , Anti-HIV Agents/therapeutic use , Antiretroviral Therapy, Highly Active , COVID-19 , Condoms/supply & distribution , Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Female , Global Health/trends , HIV Infections/mortality , HIV Infections/transmission , HIV Infections/virology , HIV-1/drug effects , HIV-1/growth & development , Humans , Incidence , Infant, Newborn , Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical/prevention & control , Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical/statistics & numerical data , Male , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Pneumonia, Viral/transmission , Pneumonia, Viral/virology , SARS-CoV-2 , Sexual Behavior/psychology , Sexual Behavior/statistics & numerical data , Survival Analysis
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