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1.
J Med Virol ; : e28248, 2022 Oct 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2085071

ABSTRACT

With increased transmissibility and novel transmission mode, monkeypox poses new threats to public health globally in the background of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Estimates of the serial interval, a key epidemiological parameter of infectious disease transmission, could provide insights into the virus transmission risks. As of October 2022, little was known about the serial interval of monkeypox due to the lack of contact tracing data. In this study, public-available contact tracing data of global monkeypox cases were collected and 21 infector-infectee transmission pairs were identified. We proposed a statistical method applied to real-world observations to estimate the serial interval of the monkeypox. We estimated a mean serial interval of 5.6 days with the right truncation and sampling bias adjusted and calculated the reproduction number of 1.33 for the early monkeypox outbreaks at a global scale. Our findings provided a preliminary understanding of the transmission potentials of the current situation of monkeypox outbreaks. We highlighted the need for continuous surveillance of monkeypox for transmission risk assessment.

2.
Curr Med (Cham) ; 1(1): 14, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2014673
4.
JAMA Netw Open ; 5(4): e229393, 2022 04 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1813430

ABSTRACT

Importance: In the US, the COVID-19 pandemic intensified some conditions that may contribute to firearm violence, and a recent surge in firearm sales during the pandemic has been reported. However, patterns of change in firearm violence in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US remain unclear. Objective: To quantify the changes in interpersonal firearm violence associated with the pandemic across all 50 US states and the District of Columbia. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cross-sectional study examined 50 US states and the District of Columbia from January 1, 2016, to February 28, 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic period was defined as between March 1, 2020, and February 28, 2021. Statistical analysis was performed from April to December 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: A 2-stage interrupted time-series design was used to examine the excess burden of firearm-related incidents, nonfatal injuries, and deaths associated with the pandemic while accounting for long-term trends and seasonality. In the first stage, separate quasi-Poisson regression models were fit to the daily number of firearm events in each state. In the second stage, estimates were pooled using a multivariate meta-analysis. Results: In the US (all 50 states and the District of Columbia) during the pandemic period of March 1, 2020, to February 28, 2021, there were 62 485 identified firearm-related incidents, 40 021 firearm-related nonfatal injuries, and 19 818 firearm-related deaths. The pandemic period was associated with 8138 (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI], 2769-12 948) excess incidents (increase of 15.0% [95% eCI, 4.6%-26.1%]), 10 222 (95% eCI, 8284-11 650) excess nonfatal injuries (increase of 34.3% [95% eCI, 26.1%-41.1%]), and 4381 (95% eCI, 2262-6264) excess deaths (increase of 28.4% [95% eCI, 12.9%-46.2%]). The increase in firearm-related violence was more pronounced from June to October 2020 and in Minnesota and New York State. Conclusions and Relevance: In the US, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with an excess burden of firearm-related incidents, nonfatal injuries, and deaths, with substantial temporal and spatial variations.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Wounds, Gunshot , COVID-19/epidemiology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Humans , Pandemics , Violence , Wounds, Gunshot/epidemiology
6.
JAMA Intern Med ; 181(10): 1343-1350, 2021 10 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1368408

ABSTRACT

Importance: Much remains unknown about the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. How the severity of the index case and timing of exposure is associated with disease in close contacts of index patients with COVID-19 and clinical presentation in those developing disease is not well elucidated. Objectives: To investigate the association between the timing of exposure and development of disease among close contacts of index patients with COVID-19 and to evaluate whether the severity of the index case is associated with clinical presentation in close contacts who develop COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study used a large, population-based cohort of 730 individuals (index patients) who received a diagnosis of COVID-19 in Zhejiang Province, China, from January 8 to July 30, 2020, along with a contact tracing surveillance program. Field workers visited 8852 close contacts of the index patients and evaluated them for COVID-19 through August 2020. A timeline was constructed to characterize different exposure periods between index patients and their contacts. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the attack rate of COVID-19, defined as the total number of new COVID-19 cases diagnosed among contacts of index patients divided by the total number of exposed contacts. A secondary outcome was asymptomatic clinical presentation among infected contacts. Relative risks were calculated to investigate risk factors for COVID-19 among contacts and asymptomatic clinical presentation among infected contacts. Results: Among 8852 close contacts (4679 male contacts [52.9%]; median age, 41 years [interquartile range, 28-54 years]) of 730 index patients (374 male patients [51.2%]; median age, 46 years [interquartile range, 36-56 years]), contacts were at highest risk of COVID-19 if they were exposed between 2 days before and 3 days after the index patient's symptom onset, peaking at day 0 (adjusted relative risk [ARR], 1.3; 95% CI, 1.2-1.5). Compared with being exposed to an asymptomatic index patient, the risk of COVID-19 among contacts was higher when they were exposed to index patients with mild (ARR, 4.0; 95% CI, 1.8-9.1) and moderate (ARR, 4.3; 95% CI, 1.9-9.7) cases of COVID-19. As index case severity increased, infected contacts were less likely to be asymptomatic (exposed to patient with mild COVID-19: ARR, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.1-0.9; exposed to patient with moderate COVID-19: ARR, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.1-0.8). Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study found that individuals with COVID-19 were most infectious a few days before and after symptom onset. Infected contacts of asymptomatic index patients were less likely to present with COVID-19 symptoms, suggesting that quantity of exposure may be associated with clinical presentation in close contacts.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/transmission , Contact Tracing , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity , Adult , Aged , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/epidemiology , China , Cohort Studies , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Risk Factors , Symptom Assessment , Time Factors , Young Adult
8.
Epidemiol Infect ; 149: e14, 2021 01 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1047902

ABSTRACT

Pre-existing health conditions may exacerbate the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We aimed to estimate the case-fatality rate (CFR) and rate ratios (RR) for patients with hypertension (HBP) and diabetes mellitus (DM) in the New York state. We obtained the age-specific number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths from public reports provided by the New York State Department of Health, and age-specific prevalence of HBP and DM from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System 2017. We calculated CFR and RR for COVID-19 patients with HBP and DM based on the reported number of deaths with the comorbidity divided by the expected number of COVID-19 cases with the comorbidity. We performed subgroup analysis by age and calculated the CFR and RR for ages of 18-44, 45-64 and 65+ years, respectively. We found that the older population had a higher CFR, but the elevated RRs associated with comorbidities are more pronounced among the younger population. Our findings suggest that besides the elderly, the young population with comorbidity should also be considered as a vulnerable group.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/mortality , Diabetes Complications/mortality , Hypertension/complications , SARS-CoV-2 , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Comorbidity , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology , Humans , Hypertension/epidemiology , Hypertension/mortality , Middle Aged , Young Adult
9.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 26(8): 1922-1923, 2020 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-732560

ABSTRACT

We ran a simulation comparing 3 methods to calculate case-fatality risk for coronavirus disease using parameters described in previous studies. Case-fatality risk calculated from these methods all are biased at the early stage of the epidemic. When comparing real-time case-fatality risk, the current trajectory of the epidemic should be considered.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus/pathogenicity , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Models, Statistical , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , COVID-19 , Computer Simulation , Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Female , Humans , Incidence , Male , Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis , Pneumonia, Viral/transmission , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2 , Severity of Illness Index , Survival Analysis , Time Factors
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