A framework for food security via resilient agri-food supply chains: the case of UAE

Food security (FS) is one of the most elusive and sought-after objectives worldwide. Securing a country's self-sufficiency - in the current COVID-19 pandemic era, more than ever - has become a prioritized mission. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, FS is adversely affected by, among others, the scarcity of freshwater, harsh environment, regional conflicts, and rising temperatures. Following the eruption of the COVID-19 pandemic, exporters placed export restrictions on key food crops, affecting FS in import dependent regions, such as the MENA countries and, more specifically, the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This paper presented a conceptual framework on the key enablers for the UAE agri-food supply chains to obtain the necessary resiliency to achieve FS, through improving policy-making capacity. The proposed approach started with the assessment of the main vulnerabilities of the food system in a global context;from there, the factors that influence vulnerability were investigated, identifying the main global drivers that affect the local food systems, focusing on the UAE. The proposed framework was applied for the design and implementation of an early warning system concerning FS-related incidents.

Food security in the United Arab Emirates: External cereal supply risks

The coronavirus pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have exposed the vulnerability of the food systems of import-dependent countries to supply chain disruptions. This study measured the short-term external cereal supply risks for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by applying the Herfindahl-Hirschman Concentration Index (HHI) and the Shannon-Wiener Diversity Index (SWI) during 2012-2020. We measured the security of UAE's external cereal supplies by taking the degree of UAE's cereal import dependency, the level of political- and business-related risks of UAE's cereal supplying countries, and the distance between UAE and its supplying countries into account. The results of the index values generally imply that UAE's cereal external supply risk has been low during the sample period. However, the external wheat supply risk has increased since 2017. This was mainly attributable to UAE's increasing dependence on less secured countries, i.e. countries with higher levels of risk assessment values such as Russia. UAE has heavily been dependent on one or two, mostly price competitive, sources for its cereal imports, which also raises the external cereal supply risk. The UAE's increasing dependence on Russia as the main source of cereals and the increasing consolidation of sources pose a serious threat to sustaining food security.