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Epidemiol Infect ; 148: e113, 2020 06 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-636836


Mathematical modelling studies predicting the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been used worldwide, but precisions are limited. Thus, continuous evaluation of the modelling studies is crucial. We investigated situations of virus importation in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to assess effectiveness of a modelling study by Haider N et al. titled 'Passengers' destinations from China: low risk of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) transmission into Africa and South America'. We obtained epidemiological data of 2417 COVID-19 cases reported by 40 countries in SSA within 30 days of the first case confirmed in Nigeria on 27 February. Out of 442 cases which had travel history available, only one (0.2%) had a travel history to China. These findings underline the result of the model. However, the fact that there were numbers of imported cases from other regions shows the limits of the model. The limits could be attributed to the characteristics of the COVID-19 which is infectious even when the patients do not express any symptoms. Therefore, there is a profound need for all modelling researchers to take asymptomatic cases into account when they establish modelling studies.

Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Africa South of the Sahara , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , China , Humans , Nigeria , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , South America
QJM ; 113(8): 551-555, 2020 Aug 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-610983


BACKGROUND: Under the unique Japanese policy to restrict reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, a nationwide number of its confirmed cases and mortality remains to be low. Yet the information is lacking on geographical differences of these measures and their associated factors. AIM: Evaluation of prefecture-based geographical differences and associated predictors for the incidence and number of RT-PCR tests for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). DESIGN: Cross-sectional study using regression and correlation analysis. METHODS: We retrieved domestic laboratory-confirmed cases, deaths and the number of RT-PCR testing for COVID-19 from 15 January to 6 April 2020 in 47 prefectures in Japan, using publicly available data by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. We did descriptive analyses of these three measures and identified significant predictors for the incidence and RT-PCR testing through multiple regression analyses and correlates with the number of deaths through correlation analysis. RESULTS: The median prefectural-level incidence and number of RT-PCR testing per 100 000 population were 1.14 and 38.6, respectively. Multiple regression analyses revealed that significant predictors for the incidence were prefectural-level population (P < 0.001) and the number of RT-PCR testing (P = 0.03); and those for RT-PCR testing were the incidence (P = 0.025), available beds (P = 0.045) and cluster infections (P = 0.034). CONCLUSION: Considering bidirectional association between the incidence and RT-PCR testing, there may have been an underdiagnosed population for the infection. The restraint policy for RT-PCR testing should be revisited to meet the increasing demand under the COVID-19 epidemic.

Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , COVID-19 , COVID-19 Testing , Clinical Laboratory Techniques/methods , Clinical Laboratory Techniques/statistics & numerical data , Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis , Cross-Sectional Studies , Hospital Bed Capacity/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Incidence , Japan/epidemiology , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis , Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction/statistics & numerical data , SARS-CoV-2
QJM ; 113(10): 713-714, 2020 Oct 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-186669


Under the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the deaths of healthcare professionals have been increasingly reported worldwide. We performed a cross-sectional, observational study using news reports on the websites among selected countries as of April 2020. We found 120 dead medical doctors due to COVID-19 in Western Europe and Asia-Pacific countries; 67 in Italy (47 in the Northern part), 34 in China (22 in Hubei), 6 in France, 4 in the UK, the USA and Spain and 1 in South Korea, respectively. Among them, 90% were men, and specialties were reported as general practitioners for 30% and as physicians for 11.6%. The overall proportions of dead medical doctors amounted to 1.9 per 10 000 confirmed cases and 30.2 per 10 000 dead cases, respectively. Proactive measures are warranted to protect doctors especially who often encounters with COVID-19 patients.

Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Global Health/statistics & numerical data , Occupational Diseases/mortality , Physicians/statistics & numerical data , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Aged , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Mortality , Occupational Diseases/virology , Occupational Exposure/prevention & control , Occupational Health/statistics & numerical data , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2