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1.
Lancet Digit Health ; 4(4): e266-e278, 2022 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1730184

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Uncertainty in patients' COVID-19 status contributes to treatment delays, nosocomial transmission, and operational pressures in hospitals. However, the typical turnaround time for laboratory PCR remains 12-24 h and lateral flow devices (LFDs) have limited sensitivity. Previously, we have shown that artificial intelligence-driven triage (CURIAL-1.0) can provide rapid COVID-19 screening using clinical data routinely available within 1 h of arrival to hospital. Here, we aimed to improve the time from arrival to the emergency department to the availability of a result, do external and prospective validation, and deploy a novel laboratory-free screening tool in a UK emergency department. METHODS: We optimised our previous model, removing less informative predictors to improve generalisability and speed, developing the CURIAL-Lab model with vital signs and readily available blood tests (full blood count [FBC]; urea, creatinine, and electrolytes; liver function tests; and C-reactive protein) and the CURIAL-Rapide model with vital signs and FBC alone. Models were validated externally for emergency admissions to University Hospitals Birmingham, Bedfordshire Hospitals, and Portsmouth Hospitals University National Health Service (NHS) trusts, and prospectively at Oxford University Hospitals, by comparison with PCR testing. Next, we compared model performance directly against LFDs and evaluated a combined pathway that triaged patients who had either a positive CURIAL model result or a positive LFD to a COVID-19-suspected clinical area. Lastly, we deployed CURIAL-Rapide alongside an approved point-of-care FBC analyser to provide laboratory-free COVID-19 screening at the John Radcliffe Hospital (Oxford, UK). Our primary improvement outcome was time-to-result, and our performance measures were sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). FINDINGS: 72 223 patients met eligibility criteria across the four validating hospital groups, in a total validation period spanning Dec 1, 2019, to March 31, 2021. CURIAL-Lab and CURIAL-Rapide performed consistently across trusts (AUROC range 0·858-0·881, 95% CI 0·838-0·912, for CURIAL-Lab and 0·836-0·854, 0·814-0·889, for CURIAL-Rapide), achieving highest sensitivity at Portsmouth Hospitals (84·1%, Wilson's 95% CI 82·5-85·7, for CURIAL-Lab and 83·5%, 81·8-85·1, for CURIAL-Rapide) at specificities of 71·3% (70·9-71·8) for CURIAL-Lab and 63·6% (63·1-64·1) for CURIAL-Rapide. When combined with LFDs, model predictions improved triage sensitivity from 56·9% (51·7-62·0) for LFDs alone to 85·6% with CURIAL-Lab (81·6-88·9; AUROC 0·925) and 88·2% with CURIAL-Rapide (84·4-91·1; AUROC 0·919), thereby reducing missed COVID-19 cases by 65% with CURIAL-Lab and 72% with CURIAL-Rapide. For the prospective deployment of CURIAL-Rapide, 520 patients were enrolled for point-of-care FBC analysis between Feb 18 and May 10, 2021, of whom 436 received confirmatory PCR testing and ten (2·3%) tested positive. Median time from arrival to a CURIAL-Rapide result was 45 min (IQR 32-64), 16 min (26·3%) sooner than with LFDs (61 min, 37-99; log-rank p<0·0001), and 6 h 52 min (90·2%) sooner than with PCR (7 h 37 min, 6 h 5 min to 15 h 39 min; p<0·0001). Classification performance was high, with sensitivity of 87·5% (95% CI 52·9-97·8), specificity of 85·4% (81·3-88·7), and negative predictive value of 99·7% (98·2-99·9). CURIAL-Rapide correctly excluded infection for 31 (58·5%) of 53 patients who were triaged by a physician to a COVID-19-suspected area but went on to test negative by PCR. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show the generalisability, performance, and real-world operational benefits of artificial intelligence-driven screening for COVID-19 over standard-of-care in emergency departments. CURIAL-Rapide provided rapid, laboratory-free screening when used with near-patient FBC analysis, and was able to reduce the number of patients who tested negative for COVID-19 but were triaged to COVID-19-suspected areas. FUNDING: The Wellcome Trust, University of Oxford Medical and Life Sciences Translational Fund.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Triage , Artificial Intelligence , COVID-19/diagnosis , Humans , SARS-CoV-2 , State Medicine
2.
Lancet Respir Med ; 10(3): 255-266, 2022 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1586183

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Dysregulated inflammation is associated with poor outcomes in COVID-19. We aimed to assess the efficacy of namilumab (a granulocyte-macrophage colony stimulating factor inhibitor) and infliximab (a tumour necrosis factor inhibitor) in hospitalised patients with COVID-19, to prioritise agents for phase 3 trials. METHODS: In this randomised, multicentre, multi-arm, multistage, parallel-group, open-label, adaptive, phase 2, proof-of-concept trial (CATALYST), we recruited patients (aged ≥16 years) admitted to hospital with COVID-19 pneumonia and C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations of 40 mg/L or greater, at nine hospitals in the UK. Participants were randomly assigned with equal probability to usual care or usual care plus a single intravenous dose of namilumab (150 mg) or infliximab (5 mg/kg). Randomisation was stratified by care location within the hospital (ward vs intensive care unit [ICU]). Patients and investigators were not masked to treatment allocation. The primary endpoint was improvement in inflammation, measured by CRP concentration over time, analysed using Bayesian multilevel models. This trial is now complete and is registered with ISRCTN, 40580903. FINDINGS: Between June 15, 2020, and Feb 18, 2021, we screened 299 patients and 146 were enrolled and randomly assigned to usual care (n=54), namilumab (n=57), or infliximab (n=35). For the primary outcome, 45 patients in the usual care group were compared with 52 in the namilumab group, and 29 in the usual care group were compared with 28 in the infliximab group. The probabilities that the interventions were superior to usual care alone in reducing CRP concentration over time were 97% for namilumab and 15% for infliximab; the point estimates for treatment-time interactions were -0·09 (95% CI -0·19 to 0·00) for namilumab and 0·06 (-0·05 to 0·17) for infliximab. 134 adverse events occurred in 30 (55%) of 55 patients in the namilumab group compared with 145 in 29 (54%) of 54 in the usual care group. 102 adverse events occurred in 20 (69%) of 29 patients in the infliximab group compared with 112 in 17 (50%) of 34 in the usual care group. Death occurred in six (11%) patients in the namilumab group compared with ten (19%) in the usual care group, and in four (14%) in the infliximab group compared with five (15%) in the usual care group. INTERPRETATION: Namilumab, but not infliximab, showed proof-of-concept evidence for reduction in inflammation-as measured by CRP concentration-in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Namilumab should be prioritised for further investigation in COVID-19. FUNDING: Medical Research Council.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Adolescent , Antibodies, Monoclonal, Humanized , Bayes Theorem , COVID-19/drug therapy , Humans , Infliximab/therapeutic use , SARS-CoV-2 , Standard of Care , Treatment Outcome
3.
Ren Fail ; 43(1): 1621-1633, 2021 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1562360

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common among patients with COVID-19. However, AKI incidence may increase when COVID-19 patients develop acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Thus, this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to assess the incidence and risk factors of AKI, need for kidney replacement therapy (KRT), and mortality rate among COVID-19 patients with and without ARDS from the first wave of COVID-19. METHODS: The databases MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched using relevant keywords. Only articles available in English published between December 1, 2019, and November 1, 2020, were included. Studies that included AKI in COVID-19 patients with or without ARDS were included. Meta-analyses were conducted using random-effects models. RESULTS: Out of 618 studies identified and screened, 31 studies met the inclusion criteria. A total of 27,500 patients with confirmed COVID-19 were included. The overall incidence of AKI in patients with COVID-19 was 26% (95% CI 19% to 33%). The incidence of AKI was significantly higher among COVID-19 patients with ARDS than COVID-19 patients without ARDS (59% vs. 6%, p < 0.001). Comparing ARDS with non-ARDS COVID-19 cohorts, the need for KRT was also higher in ARDS cohorts (20% vs. 1%). The mortality among COVID-19 patients with AKI was significantly higher (Risk ratio = 4.46; 95% CI 3.31-6; p < 0.00001) than patients without AKI. CONCLUSION: This study shows that ARDS development in COVID-19-patients leads to a higher incidence of AKI and increased mortality rate. Therefore, healthcare providers should be aware of kidney dysfunction, especially among elderly patients with multiple comorbidities. Early kidney function assessment and treatments are vital in COVID-19 patients with ARDS.


Subject(s)
Acute Kidney Injury/epidemiology , COVID-19/complications , Respiratory Distress Syndrome/complications , COVID-19/epidemiology , Humans , Incidence , Respiratory Distress Syndrome/epidemiology , Risk Factors
4.
BMJ Open ; 11(11): e050202, 2021 11 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1515299

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Severe SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with a dysregulated immune response. Inflammatory monocytes and macrophages are crucial, promoting injurious, proinflammatory sequelae. Immunomodulation is, therefore, an attractive therapeutic strategy and we sought to test licensed and novel candidate drugs. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The CATALYST trial is a multiarm, open-label, multicentre, phase II platform trial designed to identify candidate novel treatments to improve outcomes of patients hospitalised with COVID-19 compared with usual care. Treatments with evidence of biomarker improvements will be put forward for larger-scale testing by current national phase III platform trials. Hospitalised patients >16 years with a clinical picture strongly suggestive of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia (confirmed by chest X-ray or CT scan, with or without a positive reverse transcription PCR assay) and a C reactive protein (CRP) ≥40 mg/L are eligible. The primary outcome measure is CRP, measured serially from admission to day 14, hospital discharge or death. Secondary outcomes include the WHO Clinical Progression Improvement Scale as a principal efficacy assessment. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The protocol was approved by the East Midlands-Nottingham 2 Research Ethics Committee (20/EM/0115) and given urgent public health status; initial approval was received on 5 May 2020, current protocol version (V.6.0) approval on 12 October 2020. The MHRA also approved all protocol versions. The results of this trial will be disseminated through national and international presentations and peer-reviewed publications. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: EudraCT2020-001684-89, ISRCTN40580903.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Adult , Clinical Trials, Phase II as Topic , Hospitalization , Humans , Multicenter Studies as Topic , Research , SARS-CoV-2
5.
BMJ Open Respir Res ; 8(1)2021 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1438096

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to over 100 million cases worldwide. The UK has had over 4 million cases, 400 000 hospital admissions and 100 000 deaths. Many patients with COVID-19 suffer long-term symptoms, predominantly breathlessness and fatigue whether hospitalised or not. Early data suggest potentially severe long-term consequence of COVID-19 is development of long COVID-19-related interstitial lung disease (LC-ILD). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The UK Interstitial Lung Disease Consortium (UKILD) will undertake longitudinal observational studies of patients with suspected ILD following COVID-19. The primary objective is to determine ILD prevalence at 12 months following infection and whether clinically severe infection correlates with severity of ILD. Secondary objectives will determine the clinical, genetic, epigenetic and biochemical factors that determine the trajectory of recovery or progression of ILD. Data will be obtained through linkage to the Post-Hospitalisation COVID platform study and community studies. Additional substudies will conduct deep phenotyping. The Xenon MRI investigation of Alveolar dysfunction Substudy will conduct longitudinal xenon alveolar gas transfer and proton perfusion MRI. The POST COVID-19 interstitial lung DiseasE substudy will conduct clinically indicated bronchoalveolar lavage with matched whole blood sampling. Assessments include exploratory single cell RNA and lung microbiomics analysis, gene expression and epigenetic assessment. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: All contributing studies have been granted appropriate ethical approvals. Results from this study will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals. CONCLUSION: This study will ensure the extent and consequences of LC-ILD are established and enable strategies to mitigate progression of LC-ILD.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/complications , Lung Diseases, Interstitial , Humans , Longitudinal Studies , Lung Diseases, Interstitial/epidemiology , Observational Studies as Topic , Pandemics , Prospective Studies , United Kingdom/epidemiology
6.
BMJ Open Respir Res ; 7(1)2020 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1388517

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is the major cause of mortality in patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. It appears that development of 'cytokine storm' in patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia precipitates progression to ARDS. However, severity scores on admission do not predict severity or mortality in patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. Our objective was to determine whether patients with SARS-CoV-2 ARDS are clinically distinct, therefore requiring alternative management strategies, compared with other patients with ARDS. We report a single-centre retrospective study comparing the characteristics and outcomes of patients with ARDS with and without SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: Two intensive care unit (ICU) cohorts of patients at the Queen Elizabeth Hospital Birmingham were analysed: SARS-CoV-2 patients admitted between 11 March and 21 April 2020 and all patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) from bacterial or viral infection who developed ARDS between 1 January 2017 and 1 November 2019. All data were routinely collected on the hospital's electronic patient records. RESULTS: A greater proportion of SARS-CoV-2 patients were from an Asian ethnic group (p=0.002). SARS-CoV-2 patients had lower circulating leucocytes, neutrophils and monocytes (p<0.0001), but higher CRP (p=0.016) on ICU admission. SARS-CoV-2 patients required a longer duration of mechanical ventilation (p=0.01), but had lower vasopressor requirements (p=0.016). DISCUSSION: The clinical syndromes and respiratory mechanics of SARS-CoV-2 and CAP-ARDS are broadly similar. However, SARS-CoV-2 patients initially have a lower requirement for vasopressor support, fewer circulating leukocytes and require prolonged ventilation support. Further studies are required to determine whether the dysregulated inflammation observed in SARS-CoV-2 ARDS may contribute to the increased duration of respiratory failure.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/complications , Critical Care/methods , Patient Outcome Assessment , Respiratory Distress Syndrome/blood , Respiratory Distress Syndrome/etiology , C-Reactive Protein/metabolism , Cohort Studies , Female , Humans , Leukocytes/metabolism , Male , Middle Aged , Monocytes/metabolism , Neutrophils/metabolism , Respiration, Artificial/statistics & numerical data , Respiratory Distress Syndrome/therapy , Respiratory Mechanics , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2 , Time , United Kingdom , Vasoconstrictor Agents/therapeutic use
7.
BMJ Open Respir Res ; 8(1)2021 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1350028

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Ethnic minorities account for 34% of critically ill patients with COVID-19 despite constituting 14% of the UK population. Internationally, researchers have called for studies to understand deterioration risk factors to inform clinical risk tool development. METHODS: Multicentre cohort study of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 (n=3671) exploring determinants of health, including Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) subdomains, as risk factors for presentation, deterioration and mortality by ethnicity. Receiver operator characteristics were plotted for CURB65 and ISARIC4C by ethnicity and area under the curve (AUC) calculated. RESULTS: Ethnic minorities were hospitalised with higher Charlson Comorbidity Scores than age, sex and deprivation matched controls and from the most deprived quintile of at least one IMD subdomain: indoor living environment (LE), outdoor LE, adult skills, wider barriers to housing and services. Admission from the most deprived quintile of these deprivation forms was associated with multilobar pneumonia on presentation and ICU admission. AUC did not exceed 0.7 for CURB65 or ISARIC4C among any ethnicity except ISARIC4C among Indian patients (0.83, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.93). Ethnic minorities presenting with pneumonia and low CURB65 (0-1) had higher mortality than White patients (22.6% vs 9.4%; p<0.001); Africans were at highest risk (38.5%; p=0.006), followed by Caribbean (26.7%; p=0.008), Indian (23.1%; p=0.007) and Pakistani (21.2%; p=0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Ethnic minorities exhibit higher multimorbidity despite younger age structures and disproportionate exposure to unscored risk factors including obesity and deprivation. Household overcrowding, air pollution, housing quality and adult skills deprivation are associated with multilobar pneumonia on presentation and ICU admission which are mortality risk factors. Risk tools need to reflect risks predominantly affecting ethnic minorities.


Subject(s)
Air Pollution/analysis , Benchmarking/methods , COVID-19/therapy , Housing/standards , Patient Admission , Risk Assessment/methods , Age Distribution , Age Factors , Aged , COVID-19/ethnology , Comorbidity , Crowding , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Multimorbidity , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2 , United Kingdom/epidemiology
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