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Process Integration and Optimization for Sustainability ; 2021.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-1061590


The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a truly wicked problem which has remained a stubborn issue plaguing multiple countries worldwide. The continuously increasing number of infections and deaths has driven several countries to implement control and response strategies including community lockdowns, physical distancing, and travel bans with different levels of success. However, a disease outbreak and the corresponding policies can cause disastrous economic consequences due to business closures and risk minimization behaviors. This paper develops a system dynamics framework of a disease outbreak system covering various policies to evaluate their effectiveness in mitigating transmission and the resulting economic burden. The system dynamics modeling approach captures the relationships, feedbacks, and delays in such a system, revealing meaningful insights on the dynamics of several response strategies. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. part of Springer Nature.

Clean Technol Environ Policy ; 22(6): 1359-1370, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-597157


Abstract: The global scientific community has intensified efforts to develop, test, and commercialize pharmaceutical products to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic. Trials for both antivirals and vaccines are in progress; candidates include existing repurposed drugs that were originally developed for other ailments. Once these are shown to be effective, their production will need to be ramped up rapidly to keep pace with the growing demand as the pandemic progresses. It is highly likely that the drugs will be in short supply in the interim, which leaves policymakers and medical personnel with the difficult task of determining how to allocate them. Under such conditions, mathematical models can provide valuable decision support. In particular, useful models can be derived from process integration techniques that deal with tight resource constraints. In this paper, a linear programming model is developed to determine the optimal allocation of COVID-19 drugs that minimizes patient fatalities, taking into account additional hospital capacity constraints. Two hypothetical case studies are solved to illustrate the computational capability of the model, which can generate an allocation plan with outcomes that are superior to simple ad hoc allocation.