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1.
International Journal of Emerging Markets ; 2022.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-2087986

ABSTRACT

Purpose This study examines the extreme quantile connectedness and spillovers between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures and ten Vietnamese stock market sectors. Knowledge of such links is important to both investors and policymakers in understanding the transmission of shocks across markets. Design/methodology/approach The authors employ the extreme quantile connectedness methodology of Ando et al. (2022). Findings Initial results show that the size of spillovers is higher during bearish markets than bullish markets and under major financial, political, energy and pandemic events. The oil market is a net receiver of spillovers during downward markets and net contributors during upward markets. The banking sector is a net contributor of spillovers, whereas consumer discretionary and consumer staples are net receivers for different quantiles. The role of the remaining sectors as net receivers/contributors is sensitive to the quantiles. Oil has a large spillover effect on the electricity sector for all quantiles. Comparing all crises, oil offers the best hedging effectiveness to the Vietnamese sector during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis. Moreover, oil was a cheap hedge asset during oil crises. Finally, oil provides the highest hedging effectiveness for healthcare during the global financial crisis (GFC) and consumer staples during the European debt crisis (EDC), oil crisis and COVID-19. Originality/value Acknowledging the presence of heterogeneity in the relation between oil and economic sectors under different market conditions, this study is the first to examine the extreme quantile connectedness between oil and Vietnamese sectors.

2.
Asia-Pacific Financial Markets ; : 1-30, 2022.
Article in English | EuropePMC | ID: covidwho-2073184

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the time-varying connectedness between oil prices and the stock prices in African markets. We employ a wavelet-based dynamic conditional correlation framework, which allows us to look into the time-varying correlation between oil and African stock markets in time and frequency domains. Empirical results show the interdependence between oil prices and African stock market prices are time-varying and spread across various wavelet scales. More importantly, the dynamic relationship between oil prices and stock returns in these countries varies more frequently and at a lower level in the short run. However, we find the long and medium-range co-movements between them except during the Covid-19 period when short-term integration increased considerably, which might help portfolio managers and investors mitigate risk. We identify the hedge ratios and optimal portfolio weights for practical implications based on the said assets' dynamic conditional correlation.

3.
Resources Policy ; 79:103005, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-2061817

ABSTRACT

This study combines copula functions, wavelet decomposition and conditional VaR methods to examine spillovers and diversification benefits between oil futures and ASEAN stock markets (Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and Thailand). The results show zero tail dependence between oil and stock returns at the short term. In contrast, we find a lower tail independence and an upper tail dependence at the long term. Our results highlight that oil futures serve as hedge assets at short term and a safe haven asset at the long term. Furthermore, we find significant and asymmetric risk spillovers from oil to ASEAN markets. The downside and upside spillovers are higher at the long term than short term and increase during the GFC, the recent oil crisis, and COVID-19 periods. Finally, we show that an equally weighted portfolio provides highest diversification benefits at both lower and medium tail distributions with the exception of Malaysian market. The diversification benefits of oil are sizeable for less coupling markets and fall during times of GFC and oil crisis.

4.
Emerging Markets Review ; : 100966, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-2061095

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the extreme dependence and risk spillovers between Bitcoin and the currencies of the BRICS and G7 economies. We find time-varying dependence between Bitcoin and all currencies. Moreover, when analysing risk spillovers from Bitcoin to currencies, we find that Bitcoin exercises significant power over most currencies, with the South African rand and Brazilian real holding both the highest downside and upside risk before and during the COVID-19 pandemic period, respectively. When considering risk spillovers from currencies towards Bitcoin, the Japanese yen exhibits the highest downside spillovers. Importantly, we find asymmetric spillovers between extreme upward and downward movements.

5.
Qual Quant ; : 1-36, 2022 Sep 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2007209

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risks (GPR), the interaction of EPU and GPR (EPGR), and inflation in the USA, Canada, the UK, Japan, and China. We employ the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) to track the evolution of model variables and the wavelet coherence (WC) to examine the co-movement and lead-lag status of the series across different frequencies and time. To strengthen the WC, we apply the multiple wavelet coherence (MWC) to determine how good the linear combination of independent variables co-moves with inflation across various time-frequency domains. The CWT reveals heterogeneous characteristics in the evolution of each variable across frequencies. Inflation across samples shows strong variance in the short-term and medium-term while the volatility fizzles out in the long-term. For the explanatory variables, a similar pattern holds for EPU except for Japan and China, where coherence is evident in the short-term. The USA's and Canada's GPR reveal strong coherence in the short- and medium-term. Also, the UK and China reflect strong coherence in the short-term but weak significance in the medium-term, while Japan's GPR reflects only strong coherence in the short-term. The EPGR shows strong variation in the short-and-medium-term in the samples except in China. The WC's phase-difference reflects bidirectional causalities and switches in signs among series across different scales and periods in the samples, while the MWC reveals the combined intensity, strength, and significance of both EPU and GPR in predicting inflation across frequency bands among the countries. Findings also show significant co-movement among series at date-stamped periods, corroborating critical global events such as the Asian financial crisis, Global financial crisis, and COVID-19 pandemic. The paper has policy implications.

6.
Borsa Istanbul Review ; 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-1982648

ABSTRACT

Using the asymmetric Baba-Engle-Kraft-Kroner (BEKK)-GARCH model and the frequency spillover methodology by Baruník and Křehlík (2018), this paper examines spillovers and portfolio management between crude oil and US Islamic sector stocks. The results show significant time-varying spillovers between oil and Islamic sectors. The short-term spillovers are stronger than their long-term counterparts. The spillovers intensify during extreme events (global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic). The aggregate index, consumer services, raw materials, and manufacturing are net contributors of spillovers in the short term, whereas the remaining sectors are net recipients. In the long-term horizon, we find that consumer goods and finance become net transmitters of spillovers. The raw materials sector becomes a net recipient of spillovers in the long term. Finally, hedging effectiveness is lower in the long term than in the short term during the oil crisis in 2015-2016 and the US presidential election in 2017, US-China trade tension, and the COVID-19 pandemic.

7.
Financ Res Lett ; 49: 103031, 2022 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1944990

ABSTRACT

We study the relationship between return and volatility of non-fungible tokens (NFT) segments and media coverage during the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in a connectedness framework. We document media coverage as a net transmitter of spillover for both the return and volatility of NFT segments. We find that NFTs representing the Utilities segment is a major transmitter of spillover. Our findings have important implications for portfolio managers, regulators, and policymakers.

8.
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance ; : 101773, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-1937028

ABSTRACT

We examine the impact of COVID-19 pandemic crisis on the pricing efficiency and asymmetric multifractality of major asset classes (S&P500, US Treasury bond, US dollar index, Bitcoin, Brent oil, and gold) within a dynamic framework. Applying permutation entropy on intraday data that covers between April 30, 2019 and May 13, 2020, we show that efficiency of all sample asset classes is deteriorated with the outbreak, and in most cases this deterioration is significant. Results are found to be robust under different analysis schemes. Brent oil is the highest efficient market before and during crisis. The degree of efficiency is heterogeneous among all markets. The analysis by an asymmetric multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (A-MF-DFA) approach shows evidence of asymmetric multifractality in all markets which rise with the scales. The inefficiency is higher during downward trends before the pandemic crisis as well as during COVID-19 except for gold and Bitcoin. Moreover, the pandemic intensifies the inefficiency of all markets except Bitcoin. Findings reveal increased opportunities for price predictions and abnormal returns gains during the COVID-19 outbreak.

9.
Finance Research Letters ; : 103120, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-1914408

ABSTRACT

This study examines the quantile connectedness between eight green bonds and the S&P 500 index using the methodology of Ando et al. (2022). We show that green bonds and the S&P 500 index exhibit stronger connectedness during crises (GFC, COVID-19, etc.). Furthermore, green bonds are relatively less volatile during extraordinary events. The distribution tails dictate connectedness (short-term) in the wake of extreme events. The quantile spillover in the green financial markets largely originates from their energy and resource (water conservation) counterparts. These observations underscore the prevalence of upside, downside, and tail risks from green stock markets, particularly following crisis events.

10.
Finance Research Letters ; : 103112, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-1914407

ABSTRACT

We study price-switching spillovers between real estate investment trusts (REITs), oil, and gold markets by considering high- and low-volatility regimes as described by Markov-switching vector autoregression. Empirical results for different REIT markets indicate that gold (oil) has a lower (higher) impact on REITs in a high-volatility regime than in a low-volatility regime. Furthermore, in a low-volatility regime, gold and oil are net spillover contributors to REITs, while in a high-volatility regime, REITs are net spillover contributors. Price spillovers are time-varying, and climb during the early COVID-19 pandemic period and in early 2022.

11.
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance ; : 100692, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-1885883

ABSTRACT

Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) have garnered attention from investors and the general public. This pioneering study analyzes the connectedness of five NFT segments by employing the TVP-VAR based connectedness approach of Antonakakis et al. (2020) to identify the transmitter and receivers of spillover for both return and volatility of NFT segments. Our results show that Utility NFTs are the main transmitter of spillover, whereas the collectible NFTs are the main recipient of spillover for both return and volatility. Our findings have important implications for both investors and policy makers.

12.
SSRN; 2022.
Preprint in English | SSRN | ID: ppcovidwho-338560

ABSTRACT

We study the relationship of return and volatility of non-fungible tokens (NFT) segments and media coverage during the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in a connectedness framework. We document media coverage as a net transmitter of spillover for both the return and volatility of NFT segments. We find that NFTs representing the utilities segment are a major transmitter of spillover. Our findings have important implications for portfolio managers, regulators, and policy makers.

13.
Econ Anal Policy ; 74: 702-715, 2022 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1778090

ABSTRACT

This study examines the volatility spillovers between the US stock market (S&P500 index) and both oil and gold before and during the global health crisis (GHC). We apply the FIAPARCH-DCC model to the 15-minute intraday data. The results showed negative (positive) conditional correlations between the S&P500 and gold (oil). The time-varying conditional correlations between markets were higher during COVID-19 spread. Moreover, gold offers more diversification gains than oil does during the pandemic. Hedging is more expensive during a pandemic than before. Oil provides higher hedging effectiveness (HE) than gold for all sub-periods. HE was lower during the COVID-19 outbreak for both oil and gold. These findings have important implications for both equity investors and policymakers.

14.
Resources Policy ; 77:102678, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-1773726

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the asymmetric spillovers and connectedness between the spot prices of West Texas Intermediate crude oil and six popular currencies—the Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Australian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Canadian Dollar. We analyze the asymmetric realized volatility spillovers spot prices as well as the higher moments such as their realized skewness and kurtosis. The estimated results indicate that these markets are strongly interconnected and that the currencies of larger economies as well as resource exporters are mainly net transmitters of volatility. However, this attribute is time-varying, especially during global economic events/shocks. The asymmetric volatility analysis finds that bad volatilities trump good ones on average. This attribute of the sample markets is also time-varying. The evaluation of directional networks in semi-variances reveals the dominance of bad volatilities over good ones and that bad volatilities from the currencies of larger and resource-based economies and the crude oil market are imparted for the most part. Moreover, the bad volatility of the British Pound, especially in the wake of Brexit, is a key contributor of its good volatility. However, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, currencies of resource-based economies as well as the crude oil appear to impart small magnitudes of good volatilities. These findings have important implications for policymakers and highlight the need for responses tailored to different periods and markets.

15.
International Review of Financial Analysis ; : 102125, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-1768215

ABSTRACT

We examine the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and global risk factors on the upside and downside price spillovers of MSCI global, building, financial, industrial, and utility green bonds (GBs). Using copulas, CoVaR, and quantile regression approaches, we show symmetric tail dependence between MSCI global GB and both building and utility GBs. Moreover, the upper tail dependence between MSCI global GB and financial GB intensified during COVID-19. We find asymmetric risk spillovers from MSCI global GB to the remaining GBs. Finally, the COVID-19 spread, the Citi macro risk index, and the financial condition index contribute positively to the quantiles' risk spillovers. The spillover index method shows significant dynamic volatility spillovers from global GB to GB sectors that intensify during the pandemic outbreak, except for financial GB. The causality-in-mean and in-variance from COVID-19, Citi macro risk index, and US financial condition index to the downside and upside spillover effects are sensitive to quantiles

16.
International Review of Financial Analysis ; : 102124, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-1768214

ABSTRACT

The US real estate market presents itself as a highly capital intensive business and therefore an important part of the US economy. We examine the presence of dependence between 50 US financial REITs from 1st January 2006 to 20th July 2020 categorized into small, medium and large REITs. We apply normal and threshold dependence measures as main tests and centrality networking based on the minimum spanning tree as a robustness approach. We report strong dependence between large and medium US REITs, whereas small REITs provide more diversification and act as net transmitters of information. In comparison to the GFC and ESDC crises, COVID-19 affects all sizes of REIT. Our results suggest that size could be an important factor in REIT pricing, specifically a higher premium should be assigned to large REITs because of their risk receiving behaviour during crisis periods and high connectedness with other large and medium sized REITs.

17.
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance ; 61:101678, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-1757696

ABSTRACT

We explore the connectedness of the components of the sovereign yield curve (slope, level and curvature) across G-7 countries and media sentiment about COVID-19. The recent pandemic is a unique opportunity to identifying the transmitters and receivers of risk. Our results indicate that media sentiment along with the US yield curve components are main transmitter of spillovers, whereas Japan is the leading recipient of spillover. Among the European countries, we notice France as a major transmit, whereas Germany and UK switch role as transmitter and receiver alternatively. The results are important for mapping the interconnectedness between countries. In addition, policy makers can use them when devising disaster plans to prepare for future market crises.

18.
EuropePMC; 2021.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-308203

ABSTRACT

Unsupervised machine learning can interpret logarithmic returns and conditional volatility in commodity markets. k-means and hierarchical clustering can generate a financial ontology of markets for fuels, precious and base metals, and agricultural commodities. Manifold learning methods such as multidimensional scaling (MDS) and t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) enable the visualization of comovement and other financial relationships in three dimensions.Different methods of unsupervised learning excel at different tasks. k-means clustering based on logarithmic returns works well with MDS to classify commodities and to create a spatial ontology of commodities trading, A strikingly different application involves k-means clustering of the matrix transpose, such that conditional volatility is evaluated by trading date rather than by commodity. This approach can isolate the two most calamitous temporal regimes of the past two decades: the global financial crisis of 2008-09 and the immediate reaction to the Covid-19 pandemic. Temporal clustering of trading days, unlike the corresponding spatial task of clustering commodities, is better visualized through t-SNE than through MDS.

19.
Economic Analysis and Policy ; 2021.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-1587931

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the dynamic and frequency spillovers between global Green Bonds (GBs), WTI oil and G7 stock markets using the time-frequency spillover index by Baruník and Křehlík (2018) and wavelet coherency approach. The results show that the spilllovers is dynamic and crisis-sensitive. Furthermore, adding GBs and oil futures to stock portfolio reduces the spillover size during turmoil periods. The short-term spillovers (up to five trading days) represent the largest proportion of the total spillovers. A significant jump in spillovers is observed in the early of COVID-19 outbreak (March-April 2020). Interestingly, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and UK are the net transmitters of spillovers, whereas Japan and GBs are the net recipients of the spillovers, irrespective of time horizons. Oil and US stock market shift from net contributors in short term to net receipts in medium and long terms. Wavelet coherence analysis reveals significant co-movements between G7 stock markets and both oil and GBs. The co-movements are more pronounced in both medium and long terms and during COVID-19 spread where both oil and GBs lead stock markets. GBs provide higher diversification benefits to G7 investors than oil in the short-term. The hedging is expensive at the long term for GBs and intermediate term for WTI oil. Finally, the hedge effectiveness of crude oil is higher than GBs, irrespective of time horizons.

20.
Emerging Markets Review ; : 100877, 2021.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-1568670

ABSTRACT

The papers examine the drivers of systemic risk in the selected African banking systems-South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and Egypt. Several studies have documented the drivers of systemic risk in developed markets;however, these are lacking in the African banking systems. Particularly, this paper compares the drivers during and before the COVID-19 pandemic in the African banking system.

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