CausalGNN: Causal-Based Graph Neural Networks for Spatio-Temporal Epidemic Forecasting

Infectious disease forecasting has been a key focus in the recent past owing to the COVID-19 pandemic and has proved to be an important tool in controlling the pandemic. With the advent of reliable spatiotemporal data, graph neural network models have been able to successfully model the interrelation between the cross-region signals to produce quality forecasts, but like most deep-learning models they do not explicitly incorporate the underlying causal mechanisms. In this work, we employ a causal mechanistic model to guide the learning of the graph embeddings and propose a novel learning framework - Causal-based Graph Neural Network (CausalGNN) that learns spatiotemporal embedding in a latent space where graph input features and epidemiological context are combined via a mutually learning mechanism using graph-based non-linear transformations. We design an attention-based dynamic GNN module to capture spatial and temporal disease dynamics. A causal module is added to the framework to provide epidemiological context for node embedding via ordinary differential equations. Extensive experiment son forecasting daily new cases of COVID-19 at global, US state, and US county levels show that the proposed method outperforms a broad range of baselines. The learned model which incorporates epidemiological context organizes the embedding in an efficient way by keeping the parameter size small leading to robust and accurate forecasting performance across various datasets.

[Consideration on the possible etiological mechanisms and countermeasures about severe acute hepatitis of unknown origin in children].

Since April 2022, severe acute hepatitis of unknown origin in children has spread to 35 countries and regions around the world, and more than 1 010 cases have been reported. Since the severe acute hepatitis of unknown origin involves a wide range of areas and has a high rate, it is critical to identify the etiology and establish effective preventive, diagnostic and therapeutic measures as soon as possible. This study discusses the possible mechanisms and countermeasures of the severe acute hepatitis of unknown origin in children. It speculates that the occurrence of the recent severe acute hepatitis might be related to adenovirus, adeno-associated virus infection, and the COVID-19 epidemic, while the difference in HLA polymorphism among different races might be related to the fact that reported cases were more common in Europe and the United States. Based on the currently available evidence, it can be preliminarily judged that the risk of large-scale outbreak of severe acute hepatitis of unknown origin in children would be low in China, but the persistent awareness and vigilance of the etiology is still needed.

High expression of ACE2 in the human lung leads to the release of IL6 by suppressing cellular immunity: IL6 plays a key role in COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: The pathogenesis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remains clear, and no effective treatment exists. SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes COVID-19 and uses ACE2 as a cell receptor to invade human cells. Therefore, ACE2 is a key factor to analyze the SARS-CoV-2 infection mechanism. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We included 9,783 sequencing results of different organs, analyzed the effects of different ACE2 expression patterns in organs and immune regulation. RESULTS: We found that ACE2 expression was significantly increased in the lungs and digestive tract. The cellular immunity of individuals with elevated ACE2 expression is activated, whereas humoral immunity is dampened, leading to the release of many inflammatory factors dominated by IL6. Furthermore, by studying the sequencing results of SARS-CoV-2-infected and uninfected cells, IL6 was found to be an indicator of a significant increase in the number of infected cells. However, although patients with high expression of ACE2 will release many inflammatory factors dominated by IL6, cellular immunity in the colorectum is significantly activated. This effect may explain why individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection have severe lung symptoms and digestion issues, which are important causes of milder symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: This finding indicates that ACE2 and IL6 inhibitors have important value in COVID-19.