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Frontiers in public health ; 10, 2022.
Article in English | EuropePMC | ID: covidwho-1787455


Influenza shares the same putative transmission pathway with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and causes tremendous morbidity and mortality annually globally. Since the transmission of COVID-19 in China, a series of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against to the disease have been implemented to contain its transmission. Based on the surveillance data of influenza, Search Engine Index, and meteorological factors from 2011 to 2021 in Xi'an, and the different level of emergence responses for COVID-19 from 2020 to 2021, Bayesian Structural Time Series model and interrupted time series analysis were applied to quantitatively assess the impact of NPIs in sequent phases with different intensities, and to estimate the reduction of influenza infections. From 2011 to 2021, a total of 197,528 confirmed cases of influenza were reported in Xi'an, and the incidence of influenza continuously increased from 2011 to 2019, especially, in 2019–2020, when the incidence was up to 975.90 per 100,000 persons;however, it showed a sharp reduction of 97.68% in 2020–2021, and of 87.22% in 2021, comparing with 2019–2020. The highest impact on reduction of influenza was observed in the phase of strict implementation of NPIs with an inclusion probability of 0.54. The weekly influenza incidence was reduced by 95.45%, and an approximate reduction of 210,100 (95% CI: 125,100–329,500) influenza infections was found during the post-COVID-19 period. The reduction exhibited significant variations in the geographical, population, and temporal distribution. Our findings demonstrated that NPIs against COVID-19 had a long-term impact on the reduction of influenza transmission.

J Med Virol ; 94(7): 3121-3132, 2022 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1750404


Growing evidence has shown that anti-COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can support prevention and control of various infectious diseases, including intestinal diseases. However, most studies focused on the short-term mitigating impact and neglected the dynamic impact over time. This study is aimed to investigate the dynamic impact of anti-COVID-19 NPIs on hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) over time in Xi'an City, northwestern China. Based on the surveillance data of HFMD, meteorological and web search data, Bayesian Structural Time Series model and interrupted time series analysis were performed to quantitatively measure the impact of NPIs in sequent phases with different intensities and to predict the counterfactual number of HFMD cases. From 2013 to 2021, a total number of 172,898 HFMD cases were reported in Xi'an. In 2020, there appeared a significant decrease in HFMD incidence (-94.52%, 95% CI: -97.54% to -81.95%) in the first half of the year and the peak period shifted from June to October by a small margin of 6.74% compared to the previous years of 2013 to 2019. In 2021, the seasonality of HFMD incidence gradually returned to the bimodal temporal variation pattern with a significant average decline of 61.09%. In particular, the impact of NPIs on HFMD was more evident among young children (0-3 years), and the HFMD incidence reported in industrial areas had an unexpected increase of 51.71% in 2020 autumn and winter. Results suggested that both direct and indirect NPIs should be implemented as effective public health measures to reduce infectious disease and improve surveillance strategies, and HFMD incidence in Xi'an experienced a significant rebound to the previous seasonality after a prominent decline influenced by the anti-COVID-19 NPIs.

COVID-19 , Communicable Diseases , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease , Bayes Theorem , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Child , Child, Preschool , China/epidemiology , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/epidemiology , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/prevention & control , Humans , Incidence , Seasons