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1.
Environmental Research Letters ; 17(6):063003, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1864161

ABSTRACT

Ozone (O3) in the troposphere is an air pollutant and a greenhouse gas. In mainland China, after the Air Pollution Prevention and Action Plan was implemented in 2013—and despite substantial decreases in the concentrations of other air pollutants—ambient O3 concentrations paradoxically increased in many urban areas. The worsening urban O3 pollution has fuelled numerous studies in recent years, which have enriched knowledge about O3-related processes and their impacts. In this article, we synthesise the key findings of over 500 articles on O3 over mainland China that were published in the past six years in English-language journals. We focus on recent changes in O3 concentrations, their meteorological and chemical drivers, complex O3 responses to the drastic decrease in human activities during coronavirus disease 2019 lockdowns, several emerging chemical processes, impacts on crops and trees, and the latest government interventions.

2.
EuropePMC; 2022.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-337676

ABSTRACT

Protein-biomolecule interactions play pivotal roles in almost all biological processes, the identification of the interacting protein is essential. By combining a substrate-based proximity labelling activity from the pupylation pathway of Mycobacterium tuberculosis , and the streptavidin (SA)-biotin system, we developed S pecific P upylation as IDE ntity R eporter (SPIDER) for identifying protein-biomolecular interactions. As a proof of principle, SPIDER was successfully applied for global identification of interacting proteins, including substrates for enzyme (CobB), the readers of m 6 A, the protein interactome of mRNA, and the target proteins of drug (lenalidomide). In addition, by SPIDER, we identified SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant specific receptors on cell membrane and performed in-depth analysis for one candidate, Protein-g. These potential receptors could explain the differences between the Omicron variant and the Prototype strain, and further serve as target for combating the Omicron variant. Overall, we provide a robust technology which is applicable for a wide-range of protein-biomolecular interaction studies.

3.
SSRN; 2022.
Preprint in English | SSRN | ID: ppcovidwho-336340

ABSTRACT

With the rapid development of economic globalization and information technology, distance learning makes students study without distance limitations. Nowadays, high-level education organizations are not only top students’ privileges anymore, instead, everyone can get this opportunity due to distance learning. At the same time, studying at far-away organizations gradually comes true. Obviously, distance learning is influencing our life, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, which plays a pivotal role in education. However, it also has some disadvantages, such as the weak study motivation and study effect, and the high requirement for devices. In this study, we examined some existing literature and our primary research will study the International students’ attitudes and their expectations about distance learning in Hungary. The research purpose is to reveal the popularity of distance learning among International students and provide suggestions for future distance learning.

4.
EuropePMC; 2022.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-336220

ABSTRACT

Background: Since the first identification of the novel SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern Omicron in South Africa, it has rapidly spread around the world. This study aimed to evaluate the clinical and laboratory characteristics of patients infected with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant BA.2. Methods: : In this retrospective study, we extracted data for 422 patients in Binzhou COVID-19 treatment centerl from March 11 to April 28, 2022. Cases were analyzed on the basis of demographic, clinical, and laboratory data as well as radiological features. Results: : Of 422 hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant BA.2, there were 311 (73.7%) asymptomatic, 102 (24.1%) mild cases and 9 (2.1%) moderate cases. The median age was 38 years (IQR, 14 to 58) for all the participants, and the cohort included 207 men and 215 women. Compared with asymptomatic patients, moderate patients were older and had more chronic comorbidities (P<0.001). For all patients, Only 23 (5.5%) of 422 patients had never received any COVID-19 vaccine dose. Nonvaccination rate was significant difference between asymptomatic group and moderte group (4.5% vs 33.3%, p=0.001), respectively. The most common symptoms at onset of illness were fever, fatigue. Moderate patients had more ground-glass opacity, and patchy shadowing. Lymphopenia was present in 6.6% of all patients, which was more common in moderate patients than asymptomatic patients (44.4% vs 4.8%, P<0.001). Conclusion: Unvaccinated and older patients (>65 years) with comorbidities are at increased risk of moderate infection. Lymphopenia, increased D-dimer, ground-glass opacity, and patchy shadowing are common in moderate patients.

5.
Frontiers in psychology ; 13, 2022.
Article in English | EuropePMC | ID: covidwho-1837505

ABSTRACT

The outbreak of the two-year corona virus has made a great difference on existing methods of learning and instruction. Online education has become a crucial role to maintain non-stop learning after the post-epidemic period. The advanced technologies and growing popularity of network equipment have made it easy to deploy remote connections. However, teachers still face challenges when they actually implement distance courses. During the learning process, the quality of learning can be improved if the researchers consider multiple factors, including emotions, attitudes, engagement, cognition, neuroscientific and cultural psychology. After analyzing these factors, instructors can have better understanding of students’ mental building and cognitive understanding in their process of learning, and be familiar with the way of interaction with students and appropriately adjust their teaching. Therefore, the current study established a learning system that aimed to understand learners’ emotional signals during learning by applying the adaptive-feedback emotional computing technology. The purpose of the system was to allow learners to (1) self-examine their learning condition, (2) enhance their self-directed learning, (3) help learners who are in negative learning emotions or settings to lower anxieties, and (4) promote their learning attitudes and engagement. Result showed that the system with the adaptive-feedback emotional computing technology has significantly improved the learning effectiveness, lowered learning anxieties and increased students’ self-directed learning.

6.
BMJ : British Medical Journal (Online) ; 368, 2020.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1837197

ABSTRACT

ObjectiveTo delineate the clinical characteristics of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) who died.DesignRetrospective case series.SettingTongji Hospital in Wuhan, China.ParticipantsAmong a cohort of 799 patients, 113 who died and 161 who recovered with a diagnosis of covid-19 were analysed. Data were collected until 28 February 2020.Main outcome measuresClinical characteristics and laboratory findings were obtained from electronic medical records with data collection forms.ResultsThe median age of deceased patients (68 years) was significantly older than recovered patients (51 years). Male sex was more predominant in deceased patients (83;73%) than in recovered patients (88;55%). Chronic hypertension and other cardiovascular comorbidities were more frequent among deceased patients (54 (48%) and 16 (14%)) than recovered patients (39 (24%) and 7 (4%)). Dyspnoea, chest tightness, and disorder of consciousness were more common in deceased patients (70 (62%), 55 (49%), and 25 (22%)) than in recovered patients (50 (31%), 48 (30%), and 1 (1%)). The median time from disease onset to death in deceased patients was 16 (interquartile range 12.0-20.0) days. Leukocytosis was present in 56 (50%) patients who died and 6 (4%) who recovered, and lymphopenia was present in 103 (91%) and 76 (47%) respectively. Concentrations of alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, creatinine, creatine kinase, lactate dehydrogenase, cardiac troponin I, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, and D-dimer were markedly higher in deceased patients than in recovered patients. Common complications observed more frequently in deceased patients included acute respiratory distress syndrome (113;100%), type I respiratory failure (18/35;51%), sepsis (113;100%), acute cardiac injury (72/94;77%), heart failure (41/83;49%), alkalosis (14/35;40%), hyperkalaemia (42;37%), acute kidney injury (28;25%), and hypoxic encephalopathy (23;20%). Patients with cardiovascular comorbidity were more likely to develop cardiac complications. Regardless of history of cardiovascular disease, acute cardiac injury and heart failure were more common in deceased patients.ConclusionSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection can cause both pulmonary and systemic inflammation, leading to multi-organ dysfunction in patients at high risk. Acute respiratory distress syndrome and respiratory failure, sepsis, acute cardiac injury, and heart failure were the most common critical complications during exacerbation of covid-19.

7.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int ; 2022 Apr 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1813813

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 issue deteriorated South Africa's already dire economic situation, exacerbated by years of considerable debt increase. The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted trade to such an extent that some enterprises are barely working at a quarter of their potential. Furthermore, economic agents delay economic decisions while waiting to see how the crisis develops. According to some economists, increased government expenditure will raise GDP enough to keep the country's debt-to-GDP ratio steady and restore fiscal sustainability. We use a panel data model to estimate a fiscal reaction function, which we then apply to historical data to assess the government's prior efforts to maintain or restore budgetary sustainability. We calculate the impact fiscal balance, government expenditure, interest rate, and revenue changes that the government will have to make to restore the country's fiscal stability due to the financial impact of the COVID-19 issue.The findings show that fiscal balance and tax revinue have a significant impact on the economics growth, while government expenditure and corruption reduce the growth of the country.

8.
Front Public Health ; 9: 749388, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1775929

ABSTRACT

Objective: The main aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence and risk factors of adult self-reported allergic rhinitis and asthma in plain lands and hilly areas of Shenmu City in China, and analyze the differences between regions. Methods: The multi-stage stratified random sampling was applied in a cross-sectional survey of adult residents in Shenmu City, from September to December 2019. The unconditional logistic regression analysis was used to screen the influence factors of allergic rhinitis and asthma. Results: 4,706 adults participated in the survey, and 99% (4,655 in 4,706) completed the questionnaires. The prevalence of allergic rhinitis was 25.4%, and the prevalence of asthma was 9.4%. The prevalence of the allergic rhinitis without asthma, asthma without allergic rhinitis, and the combined allergic rhinitis with asthma were 18.9, 2.9, and 6.5%, respectively. The prevalence of allergic rhinitis and asthma existed regional differences. The prevalence of adult self-reported allergic rhinitis was 41.5% in plain lands areas and 22.1% in hilly areas. The prevalence of adult self-reported asthma was 12.8% in plain lands and 8.8% in hilly areas. The prevalence of allergic rhinitis and asthma existed seasonal differences, with the highest prevalence from July to September. The analysis of risk factors showed that higher education [middle and high school (OR 1.72, 95%CI 1.42-2.07); college and above (OR 2.67, 95%CI 1.99-3.59)], comorbidities of other allergic diseases (OR 3.90, 95%CI 3.23-4.70), family history of allergies (OR 2.89, 95%CI 2.36-3.53), and plain lands areas (OR 2.51, 95%CI 2.06-3.05) were the risk factors for the allergic rhinitis without asthma. Aging [40-49 years old (OR 4.29, 95%CI 1.02-18.13); 50-59 years old (OR 5.89, 95%CI 1.40-24.76); ≥60 years old: (OR 6.14, 95%CI 1.41-26.71)], never-smokers (OR 1.66, 95%CI 0.99-2.80), comorbidities of other allergic disorders (OR 2.17, 95%CI 1.42-3.32), and family history of allergies (OR 2.20, 95%CI 1.40-3.47) were the risk factors for the asthma without allergic rhinitis. Advanced age [30-39 years (OR 2.16, 95%CI 1.23-3.82); 40-49 years (OR 2.86, 95%CI 1.56 to 5.25); 50-59 years (OR 2.95, 95%CI 1.58-5.51); ≥60 years old (OR 2.27, 95%CI 1.09-4.72)], higher education [middle and high school (OR 2.23, 95%CI 1.62-3.07); college and above (OR 4.28, 95%CI 2.72-6.74)], non-agricultural workers (OR 1.70, 95%CI 1.18-2.43),never-smokers (OR 2.26, 95%CI 1.51-3.39), comorbidities of other allergic diseases (OR 4.45, 95%CI 3.37-5.88), family history of allergies (OR 5.27, 95%CI 3.98-6.97), and plain lands areas (OR 2.07, 95%CI 1.51-2.86) were the risk factors for the combined allergic rhinitis with asthma. Conclusions: The prevalence of allergic rhinitis and asthma in Shenmu City was relatively high, with regional differences. Genetic and environmental factors were the important risk factors associated with allergic rhinitis and asthma. Our research would provide data support for preventing and controlling allergic rhinitis and asthma in this region in the future, and appropriate prevention and control programs should be formulated according to the characteristics of different regions.


Subject(s)
Asthma , Rhinitis, Allergic , Adult , Asthma/complications , Asthma/epidemiology , China/epidemiology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Humans , Middle Aged , Prevalence , Rhinitis, Allergic/complications , Rhinitis, Allergic/epidemiology , Risk Factors , Self Report
9.
Transbound Emerg Dis ; 2022 Apr 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1774901

ABSTRACT

The ongoing enzootic circulation of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in the Middle East and North Africa is increasingly raising the concern about the possibility of its recombination with other human-adapted coronaviruses, particularly the pandemic SARS-CoV-2. We aim to provide an updated picture about ecological niches of MERS-CoV and associated socio-environmental drivers. Based on 356 confirmed MERS cases with animal contact reported to the WHO and 63 records of animal infections collected from the literature as of 30 May 2020, we assessed ecological niches of MERS-CoV using an ensemble model integrating three machine learning algorithms. With a high predictive accuracy (area under receiver operating characteristic curve = 91.66% in test data), the ensemble model estimated that ecologically suitable areas span over the Middle East, South Asia and the whole North Africa, much wider than the range of reported locally infected MERS cases and test-positive animal samples. Ecological suitability for MERS-CoV was significantly associated with high levels of bareland coverage (relative contribution = 30.06%), population density (7.28%), average temperature (6.48%) and camel density (6.20%). Future surveillance and intervention programs should target the high-risk populations and regions informed by updated quantitative analyses.

10.
Building and Environment ; : 109032, 2022.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-1757176

ABSTRACT

Employee satisfaction significantly affects health, well-being and productivity, and office layout plays a dominant role in office psychological satisfaction. However, existing studies have not yet proposed a quantitative evaluation method for office layout satisfaction to assist design decisions. This study conducts a post-occupancy evaluation (POE) process of office layout satisfaction from 1,317 staff members at 3 universities in the Yangtze River Delta, China. The proposed office layout feature network supports the questionnaire design and environmental measurement. Based on the survey data, multiple resampling methods are considered to face the imbalanced dataset problem, and feature selection integrates statistical analysis methods and machine learning algorithms. Nine supervised learning algorithms are tested for office layout satisfaction prediction, and the final predictive model is established based on the random forest algorithm. The predictive model explanation is further integrated with original data analysis to extract the quantified impacts of various building characteristics. The workstation adjustment under the background of COVID-19 in an actual staff office is chosen to be an application scenario of the predictive model. The results show that the workstation distance, room depth and room width-depth ratio are dominant in the evaluation of office layout satisfaction. The proposed predictive model achieves 64.5% accuracy, and the prediction results are interpretable, which promotes its application in office design practice. The data processing methods in this study respond to the common data problems in the POE based opinion collection process. The extracted influence mechanisms of building characteristics can directly support user-centered office design.

11.
Biochem Biophys Res Commun ; 606: 17-22, 2022 05 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1748206

ABSTRACT

The worldwide pandemic of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is triggered by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and further worsened by the emergence of a variety of SARS-CoV-2 variants. Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), a carboxypeptidase of M32 family, serves as the receptor of SARS-CoV-2 and key regulator of host renin-angiotensin system (RAS), both of which are mainly mediated via the carboxypeptidase domain of ACE2 (sACE2) or its activity. sACE2 is thus promising in the treatment of COVID-19 but unfortunately weakened by its unstrigent substrate preference and complex interplay with host RAS. B38-CAP, an isoenzyme of ACE2, partically compensates these defects but still encounters the problem related to carboxypeptidase activity and specificity. In this study, we firstly determined the crystal structure of B38-CAP at a resolution of 2.44 Å which exists in dimeric form with the non-crystallographic two-fold axis being in coincidence with the crystallographic two-fold axis. Further structural analysis revealed the structural conservatism feature among M32 family, particularly the catalytic core and moreover lead us to hypothesize that conformational flexibility might play an pivotal role in the catalysis of B38-CAP and ACE2. The work provided here presents key features of the M32 family carboxypeptidase and provides structural basis for further development of B38-CAP-based anti-SARS-CoV-2 drugs.


Subject(s)
Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2 , COVID-19 , Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2/chemistry , Carboxypeptidases , Humans , Isoenzymes , Renin-Angiotensin System , SARS-CoV-2
12.
Journal of Physics: Conference Series ; 2146(1):011001, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1730572

ABSTRACT

2021 2ND International Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Computer Networks and Communications were successfully held online from 28th to 29th October 2021, Hefei, China. The conference was jointly organized and sponsored by Shaanxi Juxing Exhibition Co., Ltd and Juneng Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. Called by Dr. Tao Wang from School of Data Science and Computer, Sun Yat-Sen University and researcher Shuanghua Yang from the Engineering College, Southern University of Science and Technology, the conference invited scholars and experts in the fields of artificial intelligence, computer networks and communications from various universities to participate in the review and guidance of this conference. The conference focuses on the latest research fields such as “artificial intelligence”, “computer networks” and “Communications”, and aims to provide an international cooperation and exchange platform for experts, scholars and business managers in the fields of artificial intelligence, computer networks and communications application to share their research achievements, discuss the key challenges and research directions of the development of this field, and jointly promote the industrialization cooperation and continuous innovation of international academic achievements. This collection of Proceedings compiles oral and paper presentations submitted by the authors and scrutinized by the Special Committee.The conference was scheduled to be held on October 28-29, 2021 at The Westin Hefei Wanda Hotel, Hefei, Anhui, China. In view of travel restrictions and indoor activities related to COVID-19, we were forced to move the conference online. Attendees were notified one month in advance that the on-site conference was changed to an online conference, and the time and order of the conference were determined. The online conference was held on the video conferencing software Tencent Meeting. The video conference was held on the original date, but due to the large number of attendees, we extended the Meeting for 2 days. Due to the wide coverage of this conference and the large number of attendees, we divided the conference into main venue and sub-venue. The opening ceremony was held in the main venue and a speech was delivered by the invited speaker. After the main venue, we divided the invited 53 authors into 2 groups. Each author spoke for about 10-15 minutes on detailed material in the slides, with the same amount of time set aside for questions and discussion. The format of questioning and discussion was that after each author’s introduction, the conference chairman and committee members asked and answered questions. At least one attendee could ask questions that will be answered by the speaker. This conference has brought together many excellent works and the latest ideas and concepts. New ideas have been provided in the fields of information technology and mechanical engineering applications. For this, we have set up three awards, which were won by six authors. Due to the large number of attendees and the instability of the video conference software, we edited and retained part of the conference speech pictures and videos after the video conference. We put some screenshots of the conference on the official website for display.Although most attendees expressed regret that we had not been able to have the informal face-to-face discussions that usually take place between conferences, the virtual conferences had been surprisingly successful.The organizing and editorial committee of the AICNC 2021 hopes you enjoy the reading of this volume of the JPCS. Besides, we wish to thank all authors and participants for providing their valuable contributions for this proceeding as well as the reviewers for their constructive recommendations and criticism aiding to improve the presented articles. Likewise, we are confident that this issue will serve as a reference for experts, scholars and enterprise managers in the fields of the artificial intelligence, computer networks and communications.Organizing Committee, Scientifi Committee, Editorial Committee, Invited Speakers, China, Organizing Institutions are available in the pdf.

13.
Transl Androl Urol ; 11(2): 159-167, 2022 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1727124

ABSTRACT

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread worldwide with alarming levels of spread and severity. The distribution of angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) and transmembrane protease serine 2 (TMPRSS2) from bioinformatics evidence, the autopsy report for COVID-19 and the published study on sperm quality indicated COVID-19 could have a negative impact on male fertility. However, whether the negative impact of COVID-19 on male fertility is persistent remains unknown, which requires long-term follow-up investigation. Methods: Semen samples were collected from 36 male COVID-19 patients with a median recovery time of 177.5 days and 45 control subjects. Then, analysis of sperm quality and alterations of total sperm number with recovery time were performed. Results: There was no significant difference in semen parameters between male recovered patients and control subjects. And the comparisons of semen parameters between first follow-up and second follow-up revealed no significant difference. In addition, we explored the alterations of sperm count with recovery time. It showed that the group with recovery time of ≥120 and <150 days had a significantly lower total sperm number than controls while the other two groups with recovery time of ≥150 days displayed no significance with controls, and total sperm number showed a significant decline after a recovery time of 90 days and an improving trend after a recovery time of about 150 days. Conclusions: The sperm quality of COVID-19 recovered patients improved after a recovery time of nearly half a year, while the total sperm number showed an improvement after a recovery time of about 150 days. COVID-19 patients should pay close attention to the quality of semen, and might be considered to be given medical interventions if necessary within about two months after recovery, in order to improve the fertility of male patients as soon as possible.

15.
EuropePMC; 2022.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-329123

ABSTRACT

As the COVID-19 spread over the globe and new variants of COVID-19 keep occurring, reliable real-time forecasts of COVID-19 hospitalizations are critical for public health decision on medical resources allocations such as ICU beds, ventilators, and personnel to prepare for the surge of COVID-19 pandemics. Inspired by the strong association between public search behavior and hospitalization admission, we extended previously-proposed influenza tracking model, ARGO (AutoRegression with GOogle search data), to predict future 2-week national and state-level COVID-19 new hospital admissions. Leveraging the COVID-19 related time series information and Google search data, our method is able to robustly capture new COVID-19 variants’ surges, and self-correct at both national and state level. Based on our retrospective out-of-sample evaluation over 12-month comparison period, our method achieves on average 15% error reduction over the best alternative models collected from COVID-19 forecast hub. Overall, we showed that our method is flexible, self-correcting, robust, accurate, and interpretable, making it a potentially powerful tool to assist health-care officials and decision making for the current and future infectious disease outbreak.

16.
Arch Virol ; 167(2): 493-499, 2022 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1712247

ABSTRACT

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is one of the most economically devastating infectious diseases in the global swine industry. A rapid and sensitive on-site detection method for PRRS virus (PRRSV) is critically important for diagnosing PRRS. In this study, we established a method that combines reverse transcription recombinase polymerase amplification (RT-RPA) with a lateral flow dipstick (LFD) for detecting North American PRRSV (PRRSV-2). The primers and probe were designed based on the conserved region of all complete PRRSV-2 genomic sequences available in China (n = 512) from 1996 to 2020. The detection limit of the assay was 5.6 × 10-1 median tissue culture infection dose (TCID50) per reaction within 30 min at 42 °C, which was more sensitive than that of reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) (5.6 TCID50 per reaction). The assay was highly specific for the epidemic lineages of PRRSV-2 in China and did not cross-react with pseudorabies virus, porcine circovirus 2, classical swine fever virus, or porcine epidemic diarrhea virus. The assay performance was evaluated by testing 179 samples and comparing the results with those of quantitative RT-PCR (RT-qPCR). The results showed that the detection coincidence rate of RT-RPA and RT-qPCR was 100% when the cycle threshold values of RT-qPCR were < 32. The assay provides a new alternative for simple and reliable detection of PRRSV-2 and has great potential for application in the field.


Subject(s)
Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome , Porcine respiratory and reproductive syndrome virus , Animals , Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome/diagnosis , Porcine respiratory and reproductive syndrome virus/genetics , Porcine respiratory and reproductive syndrome virus/metabolism , Recombinases , Reverse Transcription , Sensitivity and Specificity , Swine
17.
EuropePMC; 2020.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-313391

ABSTRACT

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), spreads rapidly and has attracted worldwide attention. Methods: : To improve the forecast accuracy and investigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2, we constructed four mathematical models to numerically estimate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the efficacy of eradication strategies. Results: : Using the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model, and including measures such as city closures and extended leave policies implemented by the Chinese government that effectively reduced the β value, we estimated that the β value and basic transmission number, R 0 , of SARS-CoV-2 was 0.476/6.66 in Wuhan, 0.359/5.03 in Korea, and 0.400/5.60 in Italy. Considering medicine and vaccines, an advanced model demonstrated that the emergence of vaccines would greatly slow the spread of the virus. Our model predicted that 100,000 people would become infected assuming that the isolation rate α in Wuhan was 0.30. If quarantine measures were taken from March 10, 2020, and the quarantine rate of α was also 0.3, then the final number of infected people was predicted to be 11,426 in South Korea and 147,142 in Italy. Conclusions: : Our mathematical models indicate that SARS-CoV-2 eradication depends on systematic planning, effective hospital isolation, and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, and some measures including city closures and leave policies should be implemented to ensure SARS-CoV-2 eradication.

18.
EuropePMC; 2020.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-312652

ABSTRACT

Human beings are constantly struggling with various epidemics. Although we gained a lot of experience and success, in the face of the new epidemic, we still inevitably face pressure from public health, politics, and the economy. Case fatality ratio (CFR) received widespread attention as one of the indicators describing the severity of the epidemic and evaluating treatment options. However, due to the ongoing epidemic situation and the constant changes in the death and diagnosis data, no scientific method for this situation to calculate the CFR exists. This study proposes a method for estimating CFR in the continuation of the epidemic. CFR is estimated by "ratio of the cumulative number of deaths before j days from a given day to the sum of the number of patients discharged from a given day and the cumulative number of deaths before j days from a given day ". Take the ongoing outbreak of COVID COVID-19 in December 2019 as an example. The results show that, regardless of the size of the estimated value or its changing trend, the estimated CFR given by the new method shows better stability and better reflects the true situation of the case fatality rate;additionally, the improvement of medical conditions can also be clearly reflected in the change in valuation. When j = 10, according to the data of March 10, the CFR of COVIDCOVID-19 in Wuhan, China and China (excluding Hubei)is 6.23%,4.46%, and 0.87%, respectively. This method of estimating CFR can be used in time to evaluate the therapeutic effect of different medical schemes and different regions, which is of great value and significance for the decision decision-making in the epidemicprevention and control.Authors Wanling Hu, Xiaoyun Liu, and Tao Wang contributed equally to this work

19.
EuropePMC; 2020.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-311945

ABSTRACT

Background: Imported COVID-19 cases are a serious public health problem worldwide. However, limited epidemiologic information of imported cases affects the choice of prevention and control strategies.Methods: In this study, we collected data from 22 January 2020 to 21 April 2020 related to imported COVID-19 cases in Mainland China from the daily public data of the National Health Commission and the provincial health commissions.Findings: A total of 1610 cases of COVID-19 were imported from 49 countries and regions to 27 provincial administrative regions. 79.81% cases were imported from European countries and the United States. Before 29 March, the imported cases were mainly from the United States (27.66%) and United Kingdom (42.55%). After 29 March 2020, the daily newly imported cases from Russia rapidly growed. After 12 April, the number of daily newly imported cases gradually decreased and remained at a low level (12±7 cases per day). Airport entry was encouraged and ground crossing entry was limited with the help of dynamic surveillance of the weekly proportion of confirmed cases at ports. 54.04% imported confirmed cases were in the asymptomatic incubation period on arrival in Mainland China. The compulsory centralized quarantine decreased the risk of onward transmission from imported cases compared to home quarantine ( P <0.05).Interpretation: Prevention and control strategies based on the epidemiological characteristics of imported cases effectively protected Mainland China against reintroduction of the virus and re-initiation of the epidemic when the epidemic was still in a surge worldwide. Such measures included: exit screening, entry screening, and compulsory centralized quarantine of all inbound travelers followed by strict contact tracing. The experiences from Mainland China provide an example of effective measures to reduce transmission of imported COVID-19 cases.Funding Statement: Shanghai Science and Technology Commission, Pudong Health Bureau of Shanghai and Krebsliga Schweiz, BIL KFS. Declaration of Interests: None to be declared.

20.
EuropePMC; 2021.
Preprint in English | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-311007

ABSTRACT

Background: Nationwide nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPI) were used to combat the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) during 2020 in the mainland of China. These NPIs have proven effective on mitigating the spread of COVID-19, but their broad impact on other diseases remains under-investigated. In this study, we aim to assess whether such broad impact exists on notifiable diseases in China.Methods: Weekly incidence and mortality data for 31 major notifiable infectious diseases at the province level were extracted from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention from 2014 to 2020. We assessed the impact of NPIs by contrasting the incidences of each infectious disease in predefined COVID-19 phases during 2020 to the average incidences in the corresponding time intervals during 2014-2019.Findings: We observed decreased incidences of most diseases during the phases after the lockdown of Wuhan. In general, respiratory diseases and gastrointestinal or enteroviral diseases were more affected than sexually transmitted or bloodborne diseases and vector-borne or zoonotic diseases. Seasonal flu and rubella were the most sensitive to the NPIs, with reductions of 67-99% in incidence rates throughout the NPI-implemented phases in China (Jan 27-Dec 31, 2020). Among gastrointestinal or enteroviral diseases, the hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) was subject to the largest declines during Jan 27-Aug 31, 2020, with >90% reduction in incidence rate. Phases with more stringent NPIs were associated with more reductions. Non-respiratory diseases, particularly HFMD, gonorrhea and brucellosis, rebounded towards the end of the year as the NPIs were relaxed.Interpretation: NPIs are broadly effective in containing infectious diseases. Less disruptive NPIs such as wearing face masks are still effective in mitigating respiratory diseases but are not adequate for containing non-respiratory diseases.Funding Statement: This work was supported by grants from the National Natural Science Funds [91846302, 81825019], the China Mega-Project on Infectious Disease Prevention [2018ZX10713001, 2018ZX10713002, 2018ZX10201001 and 2017ZX10103004], and the US National Institutes of Health [R56 AI148284].Declaration of Interests: All authors declare no competing interests.Ethics Approval Statement: Missing.

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