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1.
Complexity ; 2022, 2022.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1832709

ABSTRACT

The spread of epidemics, especially COVID-19, is having a significant impact on the world. If an epidemic is not properly controlled at the beginning, it is likely to spread rapidly and widely through the coexistence relationship between natural and social systems. A university community is a special, micro-self-organized social system that is densely populated. However, university authorities in such an environment seem to be less cautious in the defence of an epidemic. Currently, there is almost no quantitative research on epidemic spreading and response strategies in universities. In this paper, a case study of a university community is considered for a simulation of an infection evolving after an epidemic outbreak based on the method of system dynamics of the three stages. The results show the following: (1) By improving the speed of the initial emergency response, the total number of patients can be effectively controlled. (2) A quarantine policy helps to slow down the evolution of infection. The higher the isolation ratio, the higher the cost;therefore, the isolation ratio should be optimized. (3) It is important to make emergency plans for controlling epidemic spreading and carry out emergency drills and assessments regularly. According to the results of this study, we suggest an emergency management framework for public health events in university communities.

2.
Int J Cardiol Cardiovasc Risk Prev ; 11: 200117, 2021 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1509850

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: The role of uncontrolled blood pressure (BP) in COVID-19 severity among patients with hypertension is unclear. We evaluated the association between uncontrolled BP and the risk of hospitalization and/or mortality in patients with hypertension from a large US integrated healthcare system. METHODS: We identified patients with hypertension and a positive RT-PCR test result or a diagnosis of COVID-19 between March 1 - September 1, 2020 from Kaiser Permanente Southern California. BP categories was defined using the most recent outpatient BP measurement during 12 months prior to COVID-19 infection. The primary outcome of interest was all-cause hospitalization or mortality within 30 days from COVID-19 infection. RESULTS: Among 12,548 patients with hypertension and COVID-19 (mean age = 60 years, 47% male), 63% had uncontrolled BP (≥130/80 mm Hg) prior to COVID-19. Twenty-one percent were hospitalized or died within 30 days of COVID-19 infection. Uncontrolled BP was not associated with higher hospitalization or mortality (adjusted rate ratios for BP ≥ 160/100 mm Hg vs < 130/80 mm Hg = 1.00 [95% CI: 0.87, 1.14]; BP 140-159/90-99 mm Hg vs < 130/80 mm Hg = 1.02 [95% CI: 0.93, 1.11]). These findings were consistent across different age groups, treatment for antihypertensive medications, as well as atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk. CONCLUSION: Among patients with hypertension, uncontrolled BP prior to COVID-19 infection did not appear to be an important risk factor for 30-day mortality or hospitalization.

3.
Int J Cardiol Hypertens ; 9: 100088, 2021 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1272466

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Although recent evidence suggests no increased risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes associated with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) or angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) use, the relationship is less clear among patients with hypertension and diverse racial/ethnic groups. This study evaluates the risk of hospitalization and mortality among patients with hypertension and COVID-19 in a large US integrated healthcare system. METHODS: Patients with hypertension and COVID-19 (between March 1- September 1, 2020) on ACEIs or ARBs were compared with patients on other frequently used antihypertensive medications. RESULTS: Among 14,129 patients with hypertension and COVID-19 infection (mean age 60 years, 48% men, 58% Hispanic), 21% were admitted to the hospital within 30 days of COVID-19 infection. Of the hospitalized patients, 24% were admitted to intensive care units, 17% required mechanical ventilation, and 10% died within 30 days of COVID-19 infection. Exposure to ACEIs or ARBs prior to COVID-19 infection was not associated with an increased risk of hospitalization or all-cause mortality (rate ratios for ACEIs vs other antihypertensive medications â€‹= â€‹0.98, 95% CI: 0.88, 1.08; ARBs vs others â€‹= â€‹1.00, 95% CI: 0.90, 1.11) after applying inverse probability of treatment weights. These associations were consistent across racial/ethnic groups. Use of ACEIs or ARBs during hospitalization was associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality (odds ratios for ACEIs or ARBs vs others â€‹= â€‹0.50, 95% CI: 0.34, 0.72). CONCLUSION: Our study findings support continuation of ACEI or ARB use for patients with hypertension during the COVID-19 pandemic and after COVID-19 infection.

4.
Infect Dis Poverty ; 10(1): 71, 2021 May 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1232441

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has killed over 2.5 million people worldwide, but effective care and therapy have yet to be discovered. We conducted this analysis to better understand tocilizumab treatment for COVID-19 patients. MAIN TEXT: We searched major databases for manuscripts reporting the effects of tocilizumab on COVID-19 patients. A total of 25 publications were analyzed with Revman 5.3 and R for the meta-analysis. Significant better clinical outcomes were found in the tocilizumab treatment group when compared to the standard care group [odds ratio (OR) = 0.70, 95% confidential interval (C): 0.54-0.90, P = 0.007]. Tocilizumab treatment showed a stronger correlation with good prognosis among COVID-19 patients that needed mechanical ventilation (OR = 0.59, 95% CI, 0.37-0.93, P = 0.02). Among stratified analyses, reduction of overall mortality correlates with tocilizumab treatment in patients less than 65 years old (OR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.60-0.77, P < 0.00001), and with intensive care unit patients (OR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.55-0.70, P < 0.00001). Pooled estimates of hazard ratio showed that tocilizumab treatment predicts better overall survival in COVID-19 patients (HR = 0.45, 95% CI: 0.24-0.84, P = 0.01), especially in severe cases (HR = 0.58, 95% CI 0.49-0.68, P < 0.00001). CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that tocilizumab treatment is associated with a lower risk of mortality and mechanical ventilation requirement among COVID-19 patients. Tocilizumab may have substantial effectiveness in reducing mortality among COVID-19 patients, especially among critical cases. This systematic review provides an up-to-date evidence of potential therapeutic role of tocilizumab in COVID-19 management.


Subject(s)
Antibodies, Monoclonal, Humanized/therapeutic use , COVID-19/drug therapy , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/mortality , COVID-19/therapy , Female , Hospitalization , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Respiration, Artificial , Treatment Outcome
5.
J Am Heart Assoc ; 10(3): e019669, 2021 02 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1066983

ABSTRACT

Background Previous reports suggest that the use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) or angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) may upregulate angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptors and increase severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infectivity. We evaluated the association between ACEI or ARB use and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection among patients with hypertension. Methods and Results We identified patients with hypertension as of March 1, 2020 (index date) from Kaiser Permanente Southern California. Patients who received ACEIs, ARBs, calcium channel blockers, beta blockers, thiazide diuretics (TD), or no therapy were identified using outpatient pharmacy data covering the index date. Outcome of interest was a positive reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction test for COVID-19 between March 1 and May 6, 2020. Patient sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were identified within 1 year preindex date. Among 824 650 patients with hypertension, 16 898 (2.0%) were tested for COVID-19. Of those tested, 1794 (10.6%) had a positive result. Overall, exposure to ACEIs or ARBs was not statistically significantly associated with COVID-19 infection after propensity score adjustment (odds ratio [OR], 1.06; 95% CI, 0.90-1.25) for ACEIs versus calcium channel blockers/beta blockers/TD; OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.91-1.31 for ARBs versus calcium channel blockers/beta blockers/TD). The associations between ACEI use and COVID-19 infection varied in different age groups (P-interaction=0.03). ACEI use was associated with lower odds of COVID-19 among those aged ≥85 years (OR, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.12-0.77). Use of no antihypertensive medication was significantly associated with increased odds of COVID-19 infection compared with calcium channel blockers/beta blockers/TD (OR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.11-1.56). Conclusions Neither ACEI nor ARB use was associated with increased likelihood of COVID-19 infection. Decreased odds of COVID-19 infection among adults ≥85 years using ACEIs warrants further investigation.


Subject(s)
Angiotensin Receptor Antagonists/therapeutic use , Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors/therapeutic use , COVID-19/epidemiology , Calcium Channel Blockers/therapeutic use , Delivery of Health Care, Integrated/methods , Hypertension/drug therapy , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Comorbidity , Female , Humans , Hypertension/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , United States/epidemiology , Young Adult
6.
Ann Intern Med ; 173(10): 773-781, 2020 11 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-714329

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Obesity, race/ethnicity, and other correlated characteristics have emerged as high-profile risk factors for adverse coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-associated outcomes, yet studies have not adequately disentangled their effects. OBJECTIVE: To determine the adjusted effect of body mass index (BMI), associated comorbidities, time, neighborhood-level sociodemographic factors, and other factors on risk for death due to COVID-19. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Kaiser Permanente Southern California, a large integrated health care organization. PATIENTS: Kaiser Permanente Southern California members diagnosed with COVID-19 from 13 February to 2 May 2020. MEASUREMENTS: Multivariable Poisson regression estimated the adjusted effect of BMI and other factors on risk for death at 21 days; models were also stratified by age and sex. RESULTS: Among 6916 patients with COVID-19, there was a J-shaped association between BMI and risk for death, even after adjustment for obesity-related comorbidities. Compared with patients with a BMI of 18.5 to 24 kg/m2, those with BMIs of 40 to 44 kg/m2 and greater than 45 kg/m2 had relative risks of 2.68 (95% CI, 1.43 to 5.04) and 4.18 (CI, 2.12 to 8.26), respectively. This risk was most striking among those aged 60 years or younger and men. Increased risk for death associated with Black or Latino race/ethnicity or other sociodemographic characteristics was not detected. LIMITATION: Deaths occurring outside a health care setting and not captured in membership files may have been missed. CONCLUSION: Obesity plays a profound role in risk for death from COVID-19, particularly in male patients and younger populations. Our capitated system with more equalized health care access may explain the absence of effect of racial/ethnic and socioeconomic disparities on death. Our data highlight the leading role of severe obesity over correlated risk factors, providing a target for early intervention. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Roche-Genentech.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Obesity/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Asthma/epidemiology , Body Mass Index , COVID-19 , California/epidemiology , Cohort Studies , Comorbidity , Delivery of Health Care, Integrated , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Hyperlipidemias/epidemiology , Hypertension/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2 , Sex Factors , Young Adult
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