Socioeconomic inequalities of Long COVID: a retrospective population-based cohort study in the United Kingdom.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the risk of Long COVID by socioeconomic deprivation and to further examine the inequality by sex and occupation. DESIGN: We conducted a retrospective population-based cohort study using data from the ONS COVID-19 Infection Survey between 26 April 2020 and 31 January 2022. This is the largest nationally representative survey of COVID-19 in the UK with longitudinal data on occupation, COVID-19 exposure and Long COVID. SETTING: Community-based survey in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 201,799 participants aged 16 to 64 years and with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The risk of Long COVID at least 4 weeks after SARS-CoV-2 infection by index of multiple deprivation (IMD) and the modifying effects of socioeconomic deprivation by sex and occupation. RESULTS: Nearly 10% (n = 19,315) of participants reported having Long COVID. Multivariable logistic regression models, adjusted for a range of variables (demographic, co-morbidity and time), showed that participants in the most deprived decile had a higher risk of Long COVID (11.4% vs. 8.2%; adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.46; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.34, 1.59) compared to the least deprived decile. Significantly higher inequalities (most vs. least deprived decile) in Long COVID existed in healthcare and patient-facing roles (aOR: 1.76; 95% CI: 1.27, 2.44), in the education sector (aOR: 1.68; 95% CI: 1.31, 2.16) and in women (aOR: 1.56; 95% CI: 1.40, 1.73) than men (aOR: 1.32; 95% CI: 1.15, 1.51). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides insights into the heterogeneous degree of inequality in Long COVID by deprivation, sex and occupation. These findings will help inform public health policies and interventions in incorporating a social justice and health inequality lens.

The Liverpool alcohol-related liver disease algorithm identifies twice as many emergency admissions compared to standard methods when applied to Hospital Episode Statistics for England.

BACKGROUND: Emergency admissions in England for alcohol-related liver disease (ArLD) have increased steadily for decades. Statistics based on administrative data typically focus on the ArLD-specific code as the primary diagnosis and are therefore at risk of excluding ArLD admissions defined by other coding combinations. AIM: To deploy the Liverpool ArLD Algorithm (LAA), which accounts for alternative coding patterns (e.g., ArLD secondary diagnosis with alcohol/liver-related primary diagnosis), to national and local datasets in the context of studying trends in ArLD admissions before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We applied the standard approach and LAA to Hospital Episode Statistics for England (2013-21). The algorithm was also deployed at 28 hospitals to discharge coding for emergency admissions during a common 7-day period in 2019 and 2020, in which eligible patient records were reviewed manually to verify the diagnosis and extract data. RESULTS: Nationally, LAA identified approximately 100% more monthly emergency admissions from 2013 to 2021 than the standard method. The annual number of ArLD-specific admissions increased by 30.4%. Of 39,667 admissions in 2020/21, only 19,949 were identified with standard approach, an estimated admission cost of £70 million in under-recorded cases. Within 28 local hospital datasets, 233 admissions were identified using the standard approach and a further 250 locally verified cases using the LAA (107% uplift). There was an 18% absolute increase in ArLD admissions in the seven-day evaluation period in 2020 versus 2019. There were no differences in disease severity or mortality, or in the proportion of admissions with decompensation of cirrhosis or alcoholic hepatitis. CONCLUSIONS: The LAA can be applied successfully to local and national datasets. It consistently identifies approximately 100% more cases than the standard coding approach. The algorithm has revealed the true extent of ArLD admissions. The pandemic has compounded a long-term rise in ArLD admissions and mortality.

Exploring the potential impact of the proposed UK TV and online food advertising regulations: a concept mapping study.

OBJECTIVES: In July 2020 the UK Government announced an intention to restrict advertisements for products high in fat, salt or sugar on live broadcast, catch-up and on-demand television before 21:00 hours; and paid for online advertising. As no other jurisdiction has implemented similar regulations, there is no empirical evidence about how they might perturb the food system. To guide the regulations' implementation and evaluation, we aimed to develop a concept map to hypothesise their potential consequences for the commercial food system, health and society. METHODS: We used adapted group concept mapping in four virtual workshops with food marketing and regulation experts across academia, civil society, government organisations, and industry (n=14), supported by Miro software. We merged concepts derived from the four workshops to develop a master map and then invited feedback from participants via email to generate a final concept map. RESULTS: The concept map shows how the reactions of stakeholders to the regulations may reinforce or undermine the impact on the commercial food system, health and society. The map shows adaptations made by stakeholders that could reinforce, or undermine, positive impacts on public health. It also illustrates potential weaknesses in the design and implementation of the regulations that could result in little substantial difference to public health. CONCLUSIONS: Prior to the regulations' initial implementation or subsequent iterations, they could be altered to maximise the potential for reinforcing adaptations, minimise the potential for undermining adaptations and ensure they cover a wide range of advertising opportunities and foods. The concept map will also inform the design of an evaluation of the regulations and could be used to inform the design and evaluation of similar regulations elsewhere.

Self-Reported Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Diet-Related Behaviors and Food Security in 5 Countries: Results from the International Food Policy Study 2020.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has impacted many aspects of daily life, including dietary intake; however, few studies have reported its impacts on dietary behaviors and food security across multiple countries. OBJECTIVES: We examined self-reported impacts of COVID-19 on food behaviors, food security, and overall diet healthfulness in 5 countries. METHODS: Adults aged 18-100 years (n = 20,554) in Australia, Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and the United States completed an online survey in November and December 2020 as part of the International Food Policy Study, an annual, repeat cross-sectional survey. Survey measures assessed perceived impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on eating food prepared away from home, having food delivered from a restaurant, and buying groceries online, as well as perceived food security and overall diet healthfulness. Regression models examined associations between each outcome and sociodemographic correlates. RESULTS: Across all countries, 62% of respondents reported eating less food prepared away from home due to the pandemic, while 11% reported eating more. Some participants reported having less food delivered from a restaurant (35%) and buying fewer groceries online (17%), while other respondents reported more of each (19% and 25%, respectively). An average of 39% reported impacts on their food security, and 27% reported healthful changes to their overall diet. The largest changes for all outcomes were observed in Mexico. Participants who were younger, ethnic minorities, or had lower income adequacy tended to be more likely to report food-related changes in either direction; however, these relationships were often less pronounced among respondents in Mexico. CONCLUSIONS: Respondents reported important changes in how they sourced their food during the pandemic, with trends suggesting shifts towards less food prepared away from home and more healthful diets overall. However, changes in diet and food behaviors occurred in both healthful and less healthful directions, suggesting that dietary responses to the pandemic were highly variable.

Using group model building to frame the commercial determinants of dietary behaviour in adolescence - proposed methods for online system mapping workshops.

BACKGROUND: Group model building (GMB) is a participatory approach whereby diverse stakeholders can share their views about a problem to create a collective understanding of a complex system. In this article we report our methodological approach to adapt face-to-face GMB processes to an online format to explore the mechanisms by which commercial drivers influence adolescents' dietary behaviour. We use our experiences to make recommendations on how online GMB could be delivered. METHODS: We planned, adapted, piloted, delivered, and evaluated a series of online GMB workshops with adolescents, policymakers and public health practitioners to create a system map of the commercial determinants of dietary behaviour in adolescence. We adapted face-to-face GMB workshops to a series of 3 online GMB workshops with 11 adolescents (16-18 years) living in the Southwest of England, and one GMB workshop with policymakers and public health practitioners. RESULTS: In our experience, adapting, and delivering GMB online is feasible, engaging, cost-saving and an enjoyable experience. Participants gave positive feedback in terms of engagement and enjoyment, and it allowed them to recognise different points of view about the same problem. Participants became familiarised with system thinking and system dynamics concepts, developed a shared understanding of a complex issue and portrayed it in a system map that depicted the most important factors in a causal structure as well as their interactions at various levels. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend using process mapping to understand the overall GMB process in an online environment and piloting the workshops to test the timings and flow between online platforms. For facilitation and delivery, facilitators need to ensure they can create an inviting and engaging online environment, even for participants who decide to have their cameras off. Separating GMB activities into different workshops allowed participants to reflect on the problem being discussed and bring new ideas to subsequent workshops. Evaluating the workshops enabled us to build evidence on the trade-offs between the effectiveness, quality and efficiency of online GMB workshops, and how this might be enhanced to identify leverage points and achieve systemic changes in complex issues. ETHICAL APPROVAL: The research was approved by the University of Bristol's Faculty of Health Sciences Research Ethics Committee (Ref: 99,003) and written consent was received from all participants.

Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the changes in life expectancy and years of life lost in 2020 associated with the covid-19 pandemic. DESIGN: Time series analysis. SETTING: 37 upper-middle and high income countries or regions with reliable and complete mortality data. PARTICIPANTS: Annual all cause mortality data from the Human Mortality Database for 2005-20, harmonised and disaggregated by age and sex. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Reduction in life expectancy was estimated as the difference between observed and expected life expectancy in 2020 using the Lee-Carter model. Excess years of life lost were estimated as the difference between the observed and expected years of life lost in 2020 using the World Health Organization standard life table. RESULTS: Reduction in life expectancy in men and women was observed in all the countries studied except New Zealand, Taiwan, and Norway, where there was a gain in life expectancy in 2020. No evidence was found of a change in life expectancy in Denmark, Iceland, and South Korea. The highest reduction in life expectancy was observed in Russia (men: -2.33, 95% confidence interval -2.50 to -2.17; women: -2.14, -2.25 to -2.03), the United States (men: -2.27, -2.39 to -2.15; women: -1.61, -1.70 to -1.51), Bulgaria (men: -1.96, -2.11 to -1.81; women: -1.37, -1.74 to -1.01), Lithuania (men: -1.83, -2.07 to -1.59; women: -1.21, -1.36 to -1.05), Chile (men: -1.64, -1.97 to -1.32; women: -0.88, -1.28 to -0.50), and Spain (men: -1.35, -1.53 to -1.18; women: -1.13, -1.37 to -0.90). Years of life lost in 2020 were higher than expected in all countries except Taiwan, New Zealand, Norway, Iceland, Denmark, and South Korea. In the remaining 31 countries, more than 222 million years of life were lost in 2020, which is 28.1 million (95% confidence interval 26.8m to 29.5m) years of life lost more than expected (17.3 million (16.8m to 17.8m) in men and 10.8 million (10.4m to 11.3m) in women). The highest excess years of life lost per 100 000 population were observed in Bulgaria (men: 7260, 95% confidence interval 6820 to 7710; women: 3730, 2740 to 4730), Russia (men: 7020, 6550 to 7480; women: 4760, 4530 to 4990), Lithuania (men: 5430, 4750 to 6070; women: 2640, 2310 to 2980), the US (men: 4350, 4170 to 4530; women: 2430, 2320 to 2550), Poland (men: 3830, 3540 to 4120; women: 1830, 1630 to 2040), and Hungary (men: 2770, 2490 to 3040; women: 1920, 1590 to 2240). The excess years of life lost were relatively low in people younger than 65 years, except in Russia, Bulgaria, Lithuania, and the US where the excess years of life lost was >2000 per 100 000. CONCLUSION: More than 28 million excess years of life were lost in 2020 in 31 countries, with a higher rate in men than women. Excess years of life lost associated with the covid-19 pandemic in 2020 were more than five times higher than those associated with the seasonal influenza epidemic in 2015.

Excess deaths associated with covid-19 pandemic in 2020: age and sex disaggregated time series analysis in 29 high income countries.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the direct and indirect effects of the covid-19 pandemic on mortality in 2020 in 29 high income countries with reliable and complete age and sex disaggregated mortality data. DESIGN: Time series study of high income countries. SETTING: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, England and Wales, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Northern Ireland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Scotland, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United States. PARTICIPANTS: Mortality data from the Short-term Mortality Fluctuations data series of the Human Mortality Database for 2016-20, harmonised and disaggregated by age and sex. INTERVENTIONS: Covid-19 pandemic and associated policy measures. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Weekly excess deaths (observed deaths versus expected deaths predicted by model) in 2020, by sex and age (0-14, 15-64, 65-74, 75-84, and ≥85 years), estimated using an over-dispersed Poisson regression model that accounts for temporal trends and seasonal variability in mortality. RESULTS: An estimated 979 000 (95% confidence interval 954 000 to 1 001 000) excess deaths occurred in 2020 in the 29 high income countries analysed. All countries had excess deaths in 2020, except New Zealand, Norway, and Denmark. The five countries with the highest absolute number of excess deaths were the US (458 000, 454 000 to 461 000), Italy (89 100, 87 500 to 90 700), England and Wales (85 400, 83 900 to 86 800), Spain (84 100, 82 800 to 85 300), and Poland (60 100, 58 800 to 61 300). New Zealand had lower overall mortality than expected (-2500, -2900 to -2100). In many countries, the estimated number of excess deaths substantially exceeded the number of reported deaths from covid-19. The highest excess death rates (per 100 000) in men were in Lithuania (285, 259 to 311), Poland (191, 184 to 197), Spain (179, 174 to 184), Hungary (174, 161 to 188), and Italy (168, 163 to 173); the highest rates in women were in Lithuania (210, 185 to 234), Spain (180, 175 to 185), Hungary (169, 156 to 182), Slovenia (158, 132 to 184), and Belgium (151, 141 to 162). Little evidence was found of subsequent compensatory reductions following excess mortality. CONCLUSION: Approximately one million excess deaths occurred in 2020 in these 29 high income countries. Age standardised excess death rates were higher in men than women in almost all countries. Excess deaths substantially exceeded reported deaths from covid-19 in many countries, indicating that determining the full impact of the pandemic on mortality requires assessment of excess deaths. Many countries had lower deaths than expected in children <15 years. Sex inequality in mortality widened further in most countries in 2020.

Is Obesity Policy in England Fit for Purpose? Analysis of Government Strategies and Policies, 1992-2020.

Policy Points This analysis finds that government obesity policies in England have largely been proposed in a way that does not readily lead to implementation; that governments rarely commission evaluations of previous government strategies or learn from policy failures; that governments have tended to adopt less interventionist policy approaches; and that policies largely make high demands on individual agency, meaning they rely on individuals to make behavior changes rather than shaping external influences and are thus less likely to be effective or equitable. These findings may help explain why after 30 years of proposed government obesity policies, obesity prevalence and health inequities still have not been successfully reduced. If policymakers address the issues identified in this analysis, population obesity could be tackled more successfully, which has added urgency given the COVID-19 pandemic. CONTEXT: In England, the majority of adults, and more than a quarter of children aged 2 to 15 years live with obesity or excess weight. From 1992 to 2020, even though the government published 14 obesity strategies in England, the prevalence of obesity has not been reduced. We aimed to determine whether such government strategies and policies have been fit for purpose regarding their strategic focus, nature, basis in theory and evidence, and implementation viability. METHOD: We undertook a mixed-methods study, involving a document review and analysis of government strategies either wholly or partially dedicated to tackling obesity in England. We developed a theory-based analytical framework, using content analysis and applied thematic analysis (ATA) to code all policies. Our interpretation drew on quantitative findings and thematic analysis. FINDINGS: We identified and analyzed 14 government strategies published from 1992 to 2020 containing 689 wide-ranging policies. Policies were largely proposed in a way that would be unlikely to lead to implementation; the majority were not interventionist and made high demands on individual agency, meaning that they relied on individuals to make behavior changes rather than shaping external influences, and are thus less likely to be effective or to reduce health inequalities. CONCLUSIONS: The government obesity strategies' failure to reduce the prevalence of obesity in England for almost 30 years may be due to weaknesses in the policies' design, leading to a lack of effectiveness, but they may also be due to failures of implementation and evaluation. These failures appear to have led to insufficient or no policy learning and governments proposing similar or identical policies repeatedly over many years. Governments should learn from their earlier policy failures. They should prioritize policies that make minimal demands on individuals and have the potential for population-wide reach so as to maximize their potential for equitable impacts. Policies should be proposed in ways that readily lead to implementation and evaluation.

Physical distancing interventions and incidence of coronavirus disease 2019: natural experiment in 149 countries.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between physical distancing interventions and incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) globally. DESIGN: Natural experiment using interrupted time series analysis, with results synthesised using meta-analysis. SETTING: 149 countries or regions, with data on daily reported cases of covid-19 from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and data on the physical distancing policies from the Oxford covid-19 Government Response Tracker. PARTICIPANTS: Individual countries or regions that implemented one of the five physical distancing interventions (closures of schools, workplaces, and public transport, restrictions on mass gatherings and public events, and restrictions on movement (lockdowns)) between 1 January and 30 May 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of covid-19 before and after implementation of physical distancing interventions, estimated using data to 30 May 2020 or 30 days post-intervention, whichever occurred first. IRRs were synthesised across countries using random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: On average, implementation of any physical distancing intervention was associated with an overall reduction in covid-19 incidence of 13% (IRR 0.87, 95% confidence interval 0.85 to 0.89; n=149 countries). Closure of public transport was not associated with any additional reduction in covid-19 incidence when the other four physical distancing interventions were in place (pooled IRR with and without public transport closure was 0.85, 0.82 to 0.88; n=72, and 0.87, 0.84 to 0.91; n=32, respectively). Data from 11 countries also suggested similar overall effectiveness (pooled IRR 0.85, 0.81 to 0.89) when school closures, workplace closures, and restrictions on mass gatherings were in place. In terms of sequence of interventions, earlier implementation of lockdown was associated with a larger reduction in covid-19 incidence (pooled IRR 0.86, 0.84 to 0.89; n=105) compared with a delayed implementation of lockdown after other physical distancing interventions were in place (pooled IRR 0.90, 0.87 to 0.94; n=41). CONCLUSIONS: Physical distancing interventions were associated with reductions in the incidence of covid-19 globally. No evidence was found of an additional effect of public transport closure when the other four physical distancing measures were in place. Earlier implementation of lockdown was associated with a larger reduction in the incidence of covid-19. These findings might support policy decisions as countries prepare to impose or lift physical distancing measures in current or future epidemic waves.

Information flows – Or does it? The complexity of enterprise information management

Although there has been a degree of acceptance that information is a core business asset almost no research has been carried out into the factors that affect the way that information flows around the enterprise as employees at all levels seek to make use of it to complete tasks and make decisions. These decisions can have a significant impact on business performance and on the career development of employees. The challenge lies in finding ways to track the flow of information, especially where workarounds have been developed by employees to overcome their frustration with ?approved? processes. Over the last few years computational ethnography, initially applied to assessing issues relating to culture and communication. is becoming increasing widely used to track the flow of documents. In the wake of Covid19 organisations are going to have to operate in a rapidly changing business environment. Unless the flow of information is better understood short-term changes may be implemented which turn out to be of limited benefit or even undermine the rate of achievement of new business objectives.